I suspect this as well. I think it's likely that the Cubs' only chance to keep Prior for another year is to tender a contract and fork over the $3M. Prior may legitimately feel that the Cubs treatment has already cost him millions of dollars he would have earned this year, and next, by making him unavailable (yes, they did also pay him millions, but that was justified by his draft status and early success). I think the only way to get him to come back, without just tendering, is to offer him something like $1m guaranteed next year, with the potential to make $8-10m in incentives, via different things, like making the 25 man roster, throwing 25, 50, 100, 150, 180 and 200 IP, etc. Then throw in a $10m team option, with a $1.5m buyout. Brings the total guarantee to about $2.5, below what he'd get in a tender, but because of that, you're giving him a chance to make $20m additionally.