I don't know. The best baseball teams win a little more than 60% of the time, and that's including against all competition, good or bad. How often does the best baseball team beat another top 8 team? 53%? The best NFL teams win 80% or more of the time. I think being the best might matter more in football, but it still doesn't absolutely determine the champion. That still has a lot to do with the length of the season though. If football played 162 games, there wouldn't be anybody winning 80% of the time. Similarly, if baseball played only 16 games, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility that a team on a hot start wins 10 or 12. If football played 162 game seasons I don't think you'd see a single team make it through the season, and I might get called up before December. Baseball games can essentially be won by one guy, and often that guy doesn't play all that much. A pitcher can more or less determine a game on his own in a series of 1 on 1 matchups, but then he doesn't come back for 5 more games. Football teams are 11 on 11 every play. A good baseball team can lose 12 of 16, I don't think a good football team can. And a bad baseball team can win the same, not so with football.