Backtobanks

I have a very hard time envisioning this team finishing over .500, considering it's just as bad if not worse than last year's team which finished below .500. Depending on who JH gets for RF, I don't see how you can say this team is worse than last year. We have a leadoff man, we have a closer for the whole year, we have 2 experienced setup men, and we have a stronger bench. Assuming Pierre and Walker are #1 & #2, that gives Lee and Ramirez many more RBI opportunities. With the bullpen roles set, we should lose far fewer games than last year. Finally, the first bat off of the bench won't be Macias. As with most teams, the wild card in the mix is injuries.

I'm a firm believer in not only Murton, but Cedeno too. I think Murton will have a long and solid career because he makes good contact and studies the game. Murton will end up an excellent #2 hitter and career averages of .290 with 20-25 HRs. is what I expect. I predict Cedeno will end up an All-Star (hopefully, with the Cubs) and will match Furcal's numbers within 2-3 years. Now if only Dusty will let them play on a regular basis and work their way through a slump or a bad day.

I started this thread about being patient, but I must admit I might completely run out of patience if Kenny Williams pulls off the Tejeda deal that is rumored.

I am as impatient as anyone out there, but maybe we need to realize that it is only December 15th and that a lot of things could happen in the next 6-7 weeks (or even into spring training). After the holidays, teams could realize that they need to make the trade that they're sitting on right now. Situations change that might make a GM rethink trade offers. What if some of the players in the World Classic get injured? If the Mets manage to get Manny, Floyd becomes available. If Tejada gets traded, some other team might feel the need to make a deal. I still think there is a decent chance we could get Huff, Lugo, Green, Nixon, Mench, Wilkerson, or Kearns. I still think there is a slight chance of us getting Tejada or Floyd. Unfortunately, a lot of us would sleep a little better if we had one or more of those players on the team today.

As we all know, it is not a simple answer as to why a team does well in a certain year. Such things as luck, injuries, which division they play in, players having "career years", etc. all figure into the mix. Obviously, competence and genius (see Atlanta) also figure in the formula. I think Kenny Williams took a few chances in 2005 and they all paid off. Was that genius or luck? It did help to be in the AL Central, especially when the Twins had an off year and the Indians were still to young to win the division. The playoffs are always a crapshoot because so much depends on which team has been the hottest lately and can 1 or 2 players get hot for a 2-week stretch. Obviously, the Sox will remain competitive in 2006 because of their starting pitchers. Will Thome be healthy? Will they miss Rowand? Will their relief pitchers respond like 2005? Will there be any key injuries? Will the Twins improve and the Indians mature enough to compete? That's why they play the games. In the meantime, Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen have a ways to go before I label them "geniuses".

I've heard all the rumors that Patterson won't take instruction, but I wonder if Walt Hriniak could get through to him. It might be worth a few bucks spent by the Cubs to check it out. Even the Patterson haters have to admit that there is that "potential" that would be amazing if it ever came to be.

Someday someone will write a book and we'll find out why. Some team is going to get a very productive 2B for cheap.

Unfortunately, that might end up being the best available option remaining. Why do you say "unfortunately"? Green is a left-handed bat that has consistently decent numbers. No he's not Abreu or Dunn, but he's better than Huff, Burnitz, or Jacque Jones. Vasquez is a good #2 (on some teams) or #3 starter who is overpriced, but not more than Millwood or Burnett. Wood comes back strong in May and you trade either Wood or Vasquez at the trade deadline. I say unfortunately, because a deal like that will completely deplete the farm system, and these guys are not impact players. I don't think taking both of these players would necessarily deplete the farm system depending on who's paying their money. If we're paying their overpriced contract, they might be cheaper (in players) than you think. You're right about them not being impact players, but an impact player (Abreu, Dunn, Manny) would deplete our farm system and our major league SP.

Nothing new, Huff deal on a very back burner, Patterson won't be a member of the Cubs opening day, Jacque Jones probably will be offered a multi-year deal by someone else (KC) thus ending any possibility of the Cubs getting him, Bradley for Patterson deal is about dead, etc.

Unfortunately, that might end up being the best available option remaining. Why do you say "unfortunately"? Green is a left-handed bat that has consistently decent numbers. No he's not Abreu or Dunn, but he's better than Huff, Burnitz, or Jacque Jones. Vasquez is a good #2 (on some teams) or #3 starter who is overpriced, but not more than Millwood or Burnett. Wood comes back strong in May and you trade either Wood or Vasquez at the trade deadline.

Why not expand the deal to include Vasquez and Shawn Green. Together they make about $20 million. That would solve RF and SP problems. Maybe an offer of Patterson, Williams or Hill, Guzman, & Welly.

I agree completely. Let's get a decent RF and then look into strengthening the other positions. As for the rotation, if we can stay competitive until Wood returns, that would be like getting a front line pitcher for nothing. I think Murton & Cedeno will not only be fine, I think we have 2 future stars on this team, but only if Dusty has the patience to stay with them. Adding Floyd (my 1st choice) or Huff/Wilkerson and keeping Walker would be a solid lineup. Getting Floyd, Huff, or Wilkerson leaves plenty of money for JH to use at the trade deadline to strengthen the team. Anybody who thinks that Pierre and Walker at the top of the lineup with Lee, Floyd (Huff/Wilkerson), and Ramirez in the middle and Barrett, Murton, and Cedeno following can't compete in the NL Central is mistaken. Of course, the one wild card is injuries, but that's true for any team. Assuming Wood can return in May and JH can "tinker" with the roster, I'm confident that we can compete.

I didn't realize I was in bold.

Les Grobstein was on CLTV round table last night and started the usual whining about the Cubs. His comments included the Cubs still have 4 holes to fill (LF, RF, SP, and 2B). I don't know how a sports reporter can say the Cubs have a hole in LF. Right now the Cubs have a hole in one position (RF). They would like to strengthen or add depth to SP and 2B/SS, but those aren't holes. Also, he added that the Brewers are a better team than the Cubs right now.

Good, now let's get busy on getting a RF.

If there's any doubt that JH is trying to get rid of Walker, this deal would cinch it.

Why do you say that? Teams trade withing the division all the time. Sean Casey, the Captian of the Reds was just traded to Pittsburgh for a left handed pitcher. The Mets are most definately a player for Tejada. The sports talk radio here is polluted with the rumors. Yea, but it's not like Sean Casey is Manny Ramirez or Miguel Tejada.

I've posted before that I think Cedeno will match Furcal's production within 2-3 years. I think he has the makings of an all-star SS (or 2B) within 2-3 years.

I think that those teams would be looking for those ideally, but the question of how realistic those expectations are comes up. Long post ahoy! Regarding Tejada, the word is that he has a bad relationship with Ramon Hernandez and the Orioles knew about it. Yet, they still decided to bring him in. The Orioles also are looking like the 4th best team in the AL East. Their farm system has very few good players in it who are at most a year away from being ready. Their pitching staff is young, unproven, and/or sucks. They have good offensive players, but not enough to make up for the pitching problems. If anything, I think the Orioles are a few years away from competing for the AL East again. Tejada is angry at them and would likely be a distraction in the clubhouse if his relationship with Hernandez is as bad as I've heard it to be. Yet, Tejada is also signed to a good contract and has trade value. They could get some top prospects for him, especially pitching, which the Cubs have. However, given that the market for him is not that strong (I'd say it's Boston and Chicago with Atlanta as a dark horse), I don't think that they could reasonably demand a Zambrano or a Prior, if they are set on trading him. I don't think money is the issue with them, either. As for the Phillies, they're in a slightly different bind. It was mentioned earlier in the offseason that the Phillies would like to get out from under two of their three large contracts (Thome, Burrell, and Abreu). They already unloaded Thome, but in the process they got an extra outfielder, causing them to have a bit of a problem in terms of a logjam. Michaels, Rowand, Abreu, Burrell, and Victorino (with Bourne waiting in the wings) all will vie for playing time. Yet, with Burrell and Abreu's contracts, something tells me both will start no matter what, which could be problematic since they might not be able to start their best OFs. Now, in an ideal world, the Phillies would trade Pat Burrell, shift Rowand to left, and play Michaels in CF until Victorino or Bourne are ready next year. However, I reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeally don't think there's much of a market for Burrell, especially given his horrifyingly bad contract and his recent inconsistency. They could pawn him off on some team, but they'd still have to consume at least a portion of his contract. Also keep in mind that this is a team that should make a run at the NL East next season if they solidify their bullpen and rotation. They could also use a third baseman and a catcher in the near future. Abreu is the kind of guy who could help plug those holes and the Phillies wouldn't have to pay a dime of his salary. He has two years left and is towards the end of his prime, so they should get good value for him. I think the Cubs could provide the pitching they need as well as some help at 3B (Scott Moore) and C (Geovanny Soto) that could help at a cheap price down the line. I think there's a more reasonable chance they could get a stud pitcher for Abreu than Tejada would, given the market for a RF. There's more of a chance that some team will overpay for Abreu. However, I personally do not feel like he is worth Prior or Zambrano. His age is enough of a factor to make me pause and wonder how much longer he could keep it up. Edit: You know...what's bugging me in this whole situation is the fact that the Astros have been unusually quiet this offseason. Clemens might not return, which should free up money in the budget. They also have some interesting young pitchers (Hirsh, Nieve, Astacio, Magical Wandy, Buchholz). I'm not saying it will happen...but what if the Astros offered Roy Oswalt for Abreu or Tejada? Feasible scenario? I don't think anyone considers Soto or Moore as serious enough prospects to provide any solution "down the line."

It is pretty obvious that the best the Orioles are going to do this year is finish 4th in their division. It might be hard for Angelos to admit he needs to start over, but if he realizes that then this is a good deal for the Orioles. Of course, a lot depends on what their scouts have to say about all of these players, but I've written that I think Cedeno will match Furcal's numbers within 2 years. I think he will be getting a future all-star in CF, SS, and 2 middle of the rotation starters by 2008 and will have lots of money to fill in holes for the next few years.

Get Mench and platoon them. As for the fact he can't hit lefties, Patterson can't hit either righties or lefties.

Marquis is a better hitter.

I think they could get Abreu or Tejada. It's just not likely. If they want to give up Zambrano or Prior, which isn't going to happen. For what we are offering (Walker, Williams, Patterson, Welly, Novoa, etc.), I repeat anyone who thinks the Cubs have a shot at Manny, Abreu, Dunn, or Tejada is delusional.

I think anyone who thinks the Cubs have a shot at Manny, Abreu, Dunn, or Tejada is delusional. Having said that, it is fun to speculate.

"washburn and millwood are both still out there. To not make this deal to avoid using rusch is just piling stupidity upon stupidity (the initial stupidity being signing rusch in the first place). Rusch is going to pitch for the cubs this year so you might as well improve the offense." The problem is that the Cubs won't have the money for Washburn or Millwood if we get Tejada. Also, we wouldn't have much money for a RF either.