The fact is they are starting the season without Lilly and he's coming off surgery. You prepare for the season that way and go from there. I don't give a crap about going into the season thinking, "hey if all these things workout we'll be alright". Of course if everything works out this team will be fine. But that's not how reality works. They are going into the season in a position of weakness, only 2 dependable starting pitchers, and that is before accounting for the inevitable speed bump. As of now they are last year's team, minus Harden and Bradley, plus Byrd and Silva. I don't see how that is even remotely an improvement. And last year's team was not an improvement from the 2008 team. (minus Wood, DeRosa and Edmonds, plus Gregg, Bradley and Miles). They need to replace Harden just to stay even with last year's rotation. I don't see why a $140m payroll team has to go into a season hoping a bunch of stuff will work out so they can have a chance. This team should be in a position where a bunch of things would have to go wrong to think they don't have a chance, and that's not the case. The only way a team goes into a season "where a bunch of things would have to go wrong to think they don't have a chance" is when the team is the Yankees or Red Sox with their luxury-tax budgets. Most teams don't have All Stars at every position.