98navigator

The Cubs would have to add Perez to the 40-man and someone would have to be dropped (obviously Coats and Dopirak are the leading candidates). True. I don't want Perez but I could see it happening.

I know. I'm trying to account for the other mph he's lacking. He could get it up to 94mph consistently. That would be him working back from shoulder injuries (maybe mentally too, as UK points out), that's not a surprise (it might never come back, it might). I think it's promising if he's missing 3 mph that he had earlier in camp (I was expecting him to bump up over 90 mph in the next few starts anyways). Are you hopefully that he'll regain form before March 20th? That's a mere 10 days away.

If things stay the way they are now, and the Cubs take 12 pitchers, I think Rocky Cherry makes the bullpen. Pagan or Buck Coats for the outfield. If Lou wants to squeeze in another INF utility guy, I can see Tomas Perez making the team over Cedeno.

I know. I'm trying to account for the other mph he's lacking. He could get it up to 94mph consistently.

Bad mechanics lose him 2-3 mph? really? That's what I was thinking... I also don't buy the idea that velocity isn't something you lose! Yes, bad mechanics can allow you to lose a few ticks of velocity. He could mean he lost the velocity from his throwing sessions a few weeks ago (from this shift in mechanics). A few ticks perhaps, but he's down at least 6 mph.

Vance, I vehemently disagree. I don't think that Prior is irrelevant and expendable, but if Guzman flat out performs better then I think that he should get the spot. If Prior continues the way that he's going, I think he needs to be put on the 15-day DL and stay behind in extended ST to continue to work on his stuff. After he gets more comfortable and starts stretching it out down there, he should go on a rehab assignment for 2-3 starts split between AA and AAA to make sure he's sharp when he makes his debut. I'd aim for him to return around May 4th when the Cubs open up a 6-game homestand against the Nats and Pirates. I don't think the Cubs are going to play that game this year. I think this could be a pivotal time in Mark Prior's Cubs career. He can be replaced if someone can not only win the fifth spot but show flashes of dominance. Guzman has the ability to do so. It's all hypothetical at this point but if Guzman wins the spot and goes on to win his first few starts leading up to a potential Prior return, I could see it being a very difficult situation... Listening to the off-the-record comments by Lou, it's apparent that Angel Guzman fits his profile of his ideal 5th starter; a young guy who throws well with the ability to get better as the season progresses. Having said that, I'm sure Lou would love to have the old Mark Prior but it doesn't look like he'll be around for awhile (if ever). They may not, but IMO they would be foolish not to. He missed a good portion of last year with shoulder problems and hadn't thrown since August I don't believe. Right now I think as he gets his stamina and strength up, his velocity will improve. It is all a matter of fine tuning his mechanics and finding that consistent arm slot. If he can't do that by the end of ST, I don't want him to still be fooling around with it in Wrigley. Giving up on Prior at this point would be an incredibly stupid move by the organization. I don't think they can afford to give up on him. They own him for two more seasons. I think the point is that they won't wait for him which includes not holding a rotation spot. This is the first time in his career that he's come to camp without a guaranteed spot. I think the Cubs were hoping to bring out his competitive side but I don't think he can physically meet the challenge right now.

Bad mechanics lose him 2-3 mph? really? That's what I was thinking... I also don't buy the idea that velocity isn't something you lose!

Vance, I vehemently disagree. I don't think that Prior is irrelevant and expendable, but if Guzman flat out performs better then I think that he should get the spot. If Prior continues the way that he's going, I think he needs to be put on the 15-day DL and stay behind in extended ST to continue to work on his stuff. After he gets more comfortable and starts stretching it out down there, he should go on a rehab assignment for 2-3 starts split between AA and AAA to make sure he's sharp when he makes his debut. I'd aim for him to return around May 4th when the Cubs open up a 6-game homestand against the Nats and Pirates. I don't think the Cubs are going to play that game this year. I think this could be a pivotal time in Mark Prior's Cubs career. He can be replaced if someone can not only win the fifth spot but show flashes of dominance. Guzman has the ability to do so. It's all hypothetical at this point but if Guzman wins the spot and goes on to win his first few starts leading up to a potential Prior return, I could see it being a very difficult situation... Listening to the off-the-record comments by Lou, it's apparent that Angel Guzman fits his profile of his ideal 5th starter; a young guy who throws well with the ability to get better as the season progresses. Having said that, I'm sure Lou would love to have the old Mark Prior but it doesn't look like he'll be around for awhile (if ever). They may not, but IMO they would be foolish not to. He missed a good portion of last year with shoulder problems and hadn't thrown since August I don't believe. Right now I think as he gets his stamina and strength up, his velocity will improve. It is all a matter of fine tuning his mechanics and finding that consistent arm slot. If he can't do that by the end of ST, I don't want him to still be fooling around with it in Wrigley. You would think so but I don't know what to believe. IIRC, Prior said, at the Cubs Convention, that he worked all offseason on strengthening his arm and was reportedly throwing as early as November. Add to that his quotes today; claiming that the decrease in velocity is attributed to faulty mechanics... Whatever the case, he needs to work on his game. In light of Piniella's comments today, I can't see how he'll be ready:

Bingo! Although I don't think we could get much for him at this point. Can I interest you in Braden Looper? Haha, no thanks :D

Vance, I vehemently disagree. I don't think that Prior is irrelevant and expendable, but if Guzman flat out performs better then I think that he should get the spot. If Prior continues the way that he's going, I think he needs to be put on the 15-day DL and stay behind in extended ST to continue to work on his stuff. After he gets more comfortable and starts stretching it out down there, he should go on a rehab assignment for 2-3 starts split between AA and AAA to make sure he's sharp when he makes his debut. I'd aim for him to return around May 4th when the Cubs open up a 6-game homestand against the Nats and Pirates. I don't think the Cubs are going to play that game this year. I think this could be a pivotal time in Mark Prior's Cubs career. He can be replaced if someone can not only win the fifth spot but show flashes of dominance. Guzman has the ability to do so. It's all hypothetical at this point but if Guzman wins the spot and goes on to win his first few starts leading up to a potential Prior return, I could see it being a very difficult situation... Listening to the off-the-record comments by Lou, it's apparent that Angel Guzman fits his profile of his ideal 5th starter; a young guy who throws well with the ability to get better as the season progresses. Having said that, I'm sure Lou would love to have the old Mark Prior but it doesn't look like he'll be around for awhile (if ever).

I think he's relevant even in his ineffectiveness because of his past production and potential to improve. However, I agree that if winning is the objective, the Cubs can't get caught up in just focusing on him... If he isn't ready to go, I can see him being sent on rehab and pushed into the background until he is ML ready (or demoted if he doesn't accept rehab for some strange reason).

I read that Maddux told Marquis (being pretty close friends from what I understand) to pay close attention to what Rothschild has to say, and that he has much respect for Rothschild as well. Again, I really don't pin the blame of the pitching staff woes of the past few years on Larry. I blame Dusty for his perceived overrulings of Larry's opinions/decisions. Running guys out there consistently for 100+ pitches wasn't Larry's idea. That's the manager. That's why I'm reserving judgement :wink: One thing that puzzles me a little though...if Dusty really did override him as much as we all think, I'm surprised he opted to stay here and work with Dusty again instead of going to Detroit. Makes you wonder if Hendry spoke to him and Rothschild knew way before anyone else that Dusty's time was about to come to an end. If I were Rothschild, there's no way I would have come back to be an assistant under him again. It wasn't exactly a stunning surprise to anyone that Dusty was canned. Pretty much every sportswriter and commentator had him written off by midseason last year. There are a lot of reasons Larry could have stuck it out. Maybe he likes the city or he has family in the area. Maybe he's out to prove that the pitching problems were Dusty's and not his and salvage his reputation. I'm with you in reserving my judgment. We'll see how the pitching staff improves this season and what changes there are in the way the staff is used. Then we can better separate Dusty from Larry. Larry Rothschild is from the Chicago area. He still has family here although I believe he now lives in FL during the offseason.

I agree with Tim, Lilly is a much better pitcher than I originally thought. He pitched well but his sinker is still a work in progress: Yahoo Sports

Seriously, Lou is awesome. Dusty would have decided on Z/Lilly/Marquis/Miller/Prior already. No doubt about it. Although, I still think the Cubs are going to give Prior every opportunity to win the spot. As such, I don't expect the winner to be named until the last minute (unless it's painfully obvious that Prior hasn't improved enough to earn the spot from someone who is markedly better). Ultimately, I trust that Lou will take the best team North (which at this point is the younger Guzman over Prior and Miller--Cotts is no doubt slated for long relief).

Looks like Piniella is seriously considering Angel for the rotation (if he continues to pitch well of course). Link I don't know what anyone else thinks, but my guess about what Lou meant by "...not take anything for granted" is that Angel has a chance to win the spot. It isn't as far fetched as we might have thought a few days ago...

Prior's thought's on his outing today:

Astros.com

After reading Miller's quotes, about not wanting to pitch out of the bullpen, I have to think that he will be traded if he does not earn the 5th spot. Marshall is well behind the other starter candidates so he'll have to be sent to AAA. Prior will probably be DL'd and sent on rehab but there is speculation that he could be sent to AAA if he doesn't earn the fifth spot. If Prior doesn't improve, Guzman should earn the 5th spot. If Prior returns to 2005 form Guzman is bound for AAA.

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070311/capt.aztg10903110019.cubs_royals_spring_baseball_aztg109.jpg DeRosa doubles

http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070310/capt.aztg10403102239.cubs_royals_spring_baseball_aztg104.jpg TR Lilly http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ap/20070310/capt.aztg10103102227.cubs_royals_spring_baseball_aztg101.jpg Esteban German (3) loses his helmet after sliding into second on a steal beneath Mark DeRosa

I'm leaning towards Lou talking about the improvements in Prior. The situation with Angel has been flying under the radar until recently (and part of it was discovered on an off the record discussion with Santo on Gameday Audio). The beat writers have been reporting Guzman's chances as a long shot (while focusing mostly on Prior, Miller, and Cotts). On the other hand, if Lou speaks glowingly of Angel's performance, it can be interpreted that he is the clear favorite.

Please elaborate. Why the guy would say anything that would even insinuate something like this is about a teammate is beyond me. He didn't insinuate that Prior was done. Pleasac asked him a question about expectations and prefaced it by saying "If you can get the pitching shored up, the offense looks like one of the best in the league." In the midst of his answer, DeRosa said, "With the way Guzman is throwing the ball, he might be our fifth starter." There was no dig at Prior whatsoever. I didn't mean to say it was a dig but it definitely didn't show any confidence in Prior's ability to rebound... You hear statements like that all the time in ST. It meant less than nothing, IMO. If both pitchers were no-names I'd agree but when you have someone with the pedigree of Mark Prior, it's hard to agree. Perhaps if DeRosa had a chance to think about his answer it would have been more diplomatic but I think his thoughts about Angel are telling. It's still relatively early in ST yet DeRosa doesn't feel that Prior will rebound. He was being honest about his feelings for Guzman... The guys on the team just want to win. A new guy like DeRosa has no allegiance to Mark Prior. As such, he's given his gut feeling. You're reading way too much into it. He just got finished watching Guzman hit 96-97 on the gun with great movement. His tone was much more indicative that it was a throw away comment than anything else. I disagree and I guess we won't know the real answer.

Please elaborate. Why the guy would say anything that would even insinuate something like this is about a teammate is beyond me. He didn't insinuate that Prior was done. Pleasac asked him a question about expectations and prefaced it by saying "If you can get the pitching shored up, the offense looks like one of the best in the league." In the midst of his answer, DeRosa said, "With the way Guzman is throwing the ball, he might be our fifth starter." There was no dig at Prior whatsoever. I didn't mean to say it was a dig but it definitely didn't show any confidence in Prior's ability to rebound... You hear statements like that all the time in ST. It meant less than nothing, IMO. If both pitchers were no-names I'd agree but when you have someone with the pedigree of Mark Prior, it's hard to agree. Perhaps if DeRosa had a chance to think about his answer it would have been more diplomatic but I think his thoughts about Angel are telling. It's still relatively early in ST yet DeRosa doesn't feel that Prior will rebound. He was being honest about his feelings for Guzman... The guys on the team just want to win. A new guy like DeRosa has no allegiance to Mark Prior. As such, he's giving his gut feelings.

Please elaborate. Why the guy would say anything that would even insinuate something like this is about a teammate is beyond me. He didn't insinuate that Prior was done. Pleasac asked him a question about expectations and prefaced it by saying "If you can get the pitching shored up, the offense looks like one of the best in the league." In the midst of his answer, DeRosa said, "With the way Guzman is throwing the ball, he might be our fifth starter." There was no dig at Prior whatsoever. I didn't mean to say it was a dig but it definitely didn't show any confidence in Prior's ability to rebound...

Please elaborate. Why the guy would say anything that would even insinuate something like this is about a teammate is beyond me. Len was talking to DeRosa last half inning. They were talking about the rotation and DeRosa said that with the way Angel is pitching he may be our 5th starter. That's different than a lot of other people are thinking; that Prior will get himself together in time to earn the spot.