Beast, i'm not sure I fully agree. Obviously a guy's actual ceiling, if there is any such thing, doesn't change. Whatever Pawelek's optimal potential is is what it was. Questions about whether he's maybe too dumb or too fat or too lazy or too irresponsible to ever approach his ceiling doesn't change what the physical max ceiling might be. So from that perspective, I agree that "Pawalek's ceiling didn't take a hit". But, I don't think that tells the whole story. "Ceiling" is not something exact and quantifiable. Scouts can say "Player X has Ceiling Y". But that is always a matter of perception. And perceptions can change. Rightfully. For either of at least two reasons. 1. The guy's physical capacity changes. Kelton has shoulder problems, so his throwing potential isn't as high as it was once perceived. 2. The physical capacity doesn't change. But the original ceiling perception may have been grossly exaggerated, and with further info you realize better. Examples: Mike Mallory seemed to have MVP Dave-Winfield ceiling when drafted. He's been a very dedicated, hard worker. In retrospect, it's evident that there were some vital capacities for hitting that Mallory never had. Grant Johnson seemed to have a high ceiling when signed. That doesn't seem true anymore. Perhaps injuries have diminished his phyiscal capacity. Perhaps he's just an underachiever, and he's a tinkering-of-delivery away from having the same high ceiling that we once perceived. But it may be that Stockstill simply perceived/projected a ceiling for him that post-surgery was never really there. BA's perception on Paw has changed. Assume that his ceiling is really the same now as it was before, if everything is optimized. It may well be that the updated perception of that ceiling is more accurate now. Perhaps the perception of his ceiling has changed for very good reason? I hope not, of course. I guess his ceiling did take a hit according to BA. If that's the case (they didn't mention it before when ragging on him) then their pessimism is warranted. I still think it's tough to come to camp out of shape and be expected to get your velo back by season's end. It's not just armstrength. It's core. No way you let yourself go and get it back in a couple months, so I'm not too concerned about his ceiling slipping. It seems BA (and Cubs scouts) are. I think Pawelek will come back in shape. His delivery needs to be cleaned up, but that was known back in HS.