bad read by Happ. He should have scored. Baez, Heyward, others score on that. There is zero chance he gets thrown out at third if Lindor gets to that because he has to go so far to his left - runner on second should be able to read that. Nobody out changes that a lot. What’s the probability of scoring 1 run with, essentially, the bases loaded nobody out? Because you need to be more sure than that of A. Not getting thrown out by Lindor, and B. Not getting thrown out at home. well, those weren't the scenarios but that's exactly my point. He made those calculations incorrectly and could have cost his team the game.