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OK, Hoff makes some sense, but why the [expletive] would you replace him with Barney, Fuld or Snyder? Snyder makes some sense. Former 1st round pick, had a good season in Iowa last year who is having a hot start this year. Barney contributes so little until Fontenot shows he cannot handle backup SS. Hoffpauir isn't really an option as he has started just like he played all of last year and Fuld is redundant and off to a bad start. As for Tracy, I know he's looked bad. It's only been 8 at-bats though. If there was somebody really knocking on that roster spot it would be one thing but right now there's no real need to not wait a little longer.

So he's a freshman now? I don't mean to be naive, and I know junior high kids or younger are drawing attention now. But it still makes me uncomfortable. If he's in the 2012 class, then he's finishing up his sophomore year right now.

The play-in games have to also be fair to the high seeds. Why should certain 5 seeds get to play teams who are tired and have had very little preparation for them while 4 seeds play very similar rested teams? That's the problem that hasn't been solved with having the last at-larges play each other.

i want to know where the notion that hill was a good defensive catcher came from. back in high school, there was a kid on our basketball team that was a horrible shooter/offensive player. so he was deemed our defensive stopper even though his defense was no better than anyone else's. i think that's the situation with hill. Hill benefits from a couple of things. One is his caught stealing percentage the last two years when his defensive reputation really sprouted. He caught 33.75% of runners in 08 between the minors and majors, and then caught 40% of runners in the majors in 09. Those are impressive numbers. The other is the flawed stat of the Cubs great winning percentage when he starts. That obviously means very little but it's a popular stat among fans/analysts. And since those wins are not coming from his offense, they must be coming from his defense. Hill is probably slightly better defensively than Soto just because of a slightly better arm (I am uncertain who is better at blocking balls in the dirt). Soto is still a very good defensive catcher though and shouldn't be subbed out for defensive purposes unless elite basestealers are in the other lineup and even then it should be questionable.

Let me start off with saying this is a definite downgrade to the rotation. The notion that Z is being demoted for being worse than everyone else is going to be a popular one among fans and it's simply not true. However, I do not see this move as quite as horrible as many do. You have several factors in play here. How do you feel Gorzelanny/Silva are going to do? Do you think Zambrano will be better per inning as a reliever than he is as a starter? Is the new workload going to cause less injury to Z? If Gorzelanny/Silva were pushed to the pen, would they be better pitchers in the pen than in the rotation? How would Lou use them in the pen? First, the issue of Gorzelanny and Silva's performance. Obviously they are not going to do like they have so far. Personally, I'm expecting somewhere around a 9 ERA from them combined at the end of the year (neither one higher than a 5 ERA). Is that great? No, but that's about two league average starters put together (and while I feel Gorzelanny is the better bet to be good, it really could be either one of them). Will Z be better as a reliever than a starter? Again, I would say it's likely to be yes. He's a very good starter, but he could end up being an excellent reliever. This will help him add a couple miles to his fastball that he's lost over the years as a starter. His high strikeout rate will be huge for a bullpen that frequently needs a strikeout at a very certain time. And he'll also hopefully face less left-handers in the bullpen especially with Marshall/Grabow as the other setup men which will also boost his numbers. Is the new workload going to cause less injury to Z? Uncertain. The biggest problem is the possible changing of mechanics. At the same time, Z's value as an innings eating workhorse is starting to erode both from injury that makes him miss starts and injuries that shorten starts. Plus, he isn't exactly the most efficient pitcher in the world (16-17 pitches per inning) so to get those high inning totals the Cubs would have to continue to put 110-120 pitch outings on his arm on a consistent basis. As TT pointed out, how much longer can that continue? If Gorzelanny/Silva were pushed to the bullpen, would they be better in the pen than in the rotation? And how would Lou use them? Gorzelanny would likely be a little better in the pen than he is in the rotation. But he also would be behind both Marshall and Grabow down there. So Gorzelanny would be pushed to the swing role and those low leverage innings would be worth a lot less than Z's high leverage innings. And Silva is the exact type of pitcher who you do not want in the bullpen. His biggest strength is his efficiency which isn't that helpful in the bullpen. You don't want to put him in with runners on because he's so hittable. He also gives up a lot of home runs which is not an ideal bullpen candidate when protecting slim leads. He'd also get pushed to the swing role before long and there goes any value he might have provided. There are other cons to this move. Z's bat is a big loss. Another is what the Cubs plan is if they have an injury in their starting rotation with nobody likely to be stretched out on the team (a long-term injury I would assume that Z would slowly get stretched out, but I don't know what they'll do if somebody's gone for 15-20 days). And the other is Z's long term future. Do you really plan to keep him there for years? Unless he's absolutely dominant down there, I don't see that. So have the Cubs planned the time for him to transition back to the rotation? Probably not. This is a highly creative move. Unfortunately, to get the most value out of it the Cubs would have to continue to be creative. The way for this move to work out would be to keep building either Gorzelanny or Silva's trade value until the deadline and then flip them for something of value. By then, another reliever in the pen would have likely stepped up and the Cubs can transition Z back to starter and slide the other pitcher into the setup role. The second best move would be to do the exact same thing but wait until the offseason to trade one of those two pitchers. Then you could have Z take that spot and have one of the minor leaguers (Cashner/Jackson/Coleman) take Lilly's spot. They also have to make sure Z is used in high leverage situations. But IMO this isn't a horrible move. It's certainly not playing it safe and it definitely could blow up in their faces. I don't think it was necessarily needed as a bullpen strengthening move (as the Cubs have options there). But it will strengthen the bullpen. Will it strengthen it as much as downgrading the rotation? Maybe. Will it hurt Z's value? Almost certainly. Will it upgrade others value? Yes. Will it help the Cubs in trade negotiations when they have to get rid of some of their starting pitching options to make room for the pitchers that are coming fast? Probably. So if you are much more pessimistic about the combo of Gorzelanny/Silva, I can understand why you would think it is a horrible move. And it certainly flies in the face of normal thinking (which is why I can only remember the Phillies division winner of 07 doing this). I think it probably won't put a big dent in the Cubs season and this decision might help them out in future years in multiple ways.

Yeah, it's really tough to decide what to do with the offense. They haven't hit well at all but that's in large part to the two regulars with the most at-bats being absolutely awful (Theriot, Ramirez) with nobody really being hot to counterbalance. Everyone else is close to their normal ranges (Kosuke is probably the next closest to underperforming while the catcher position is overperforming so far). Really the only thing that can be done is if the Cubs want to suddenly pull the plug on Theriot and call up Castro (which I'm not recommending). Otherwise there isn't much to be done because the expected problem areas have not been problems so far. Normally, at least 1-2 players are really hot every single month which really helps carry an offense through the slumps. It's rare that there isn't at least one random .900-1.000 OPS regular player so far. In the last 2 years, one good year and one bad offensive year, the Cubs averaged between 2 and 3 .900 OPS players per month each year (requiring 50 at-bats in the month). Is that a bad sign of things to come or random statistical variation? It could be either.

Ceda for a year of Gregg is one off the top of my head (at least in terms of how Ceda was regarded in comparison to Gregg at the time...I haven't really followed him since). Ceda was a guy who nobody knew the trade value of though because he had significant flaws that could derail his career quickly. Since the trade, Ceda accidentally shot someone in the DR and was on house arrest for a short time which he never informed Florida of. He then missed all last year after torn labrum surgery and so far this year only pitched in one Spring Training game. He's apparently slimmed down to 273.

If the Cubs had a left-handed starter that was even passable against left-handers then I am sure Lou would consider starting them. Fukudome and Fontenot both struggle quite a bit against left-handers and it doesn't make sense to put in a 650 OPS hitter instead of an 800+ OPS hitter just for the sake of balance. Plus it gives rest to the two players and gives Nady and Baker at-bats.

Didn't Dusty do that to Harang a year or two ago? I believe Harang was on 2 days rest that night (which is more normal to throw a side session). But they left Harang out there for something like 63 pitches. I doubt the Mets will leave Pelfrey out there that long even if the game goes back to being tied again.

Pelfrey threw 109 pitches on Thursday and now is back out there tonight. His next start of course was supposed to be against the Cubs next week.

Colvin-Byrd-Fukudome I think they said on the broadcast yesterday that Byrd was getting the day off today. That would probably mean Colvin in center.

He has to get used to at least that pitch count and he was stretched out that far (he only threw 8 pitches more than the previous outing). I don't see the problem although his line definitely doesn't look as pretty. when guys are in the minors i'm most concerned about K rates, BB rates and H/9 IP, and cashner's totals this year are tremendous on all accounts. his ERA may be 4.35 on the season, but that's not exactly indicative of how he's pitched: 10.1 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 20 K. Definitely. I'm not worried about that ERA at all. Jackson adds another hit. I see Guyer as a guy who could succeed eventually at the major league level but will probably never be interesting enough to be given much of a chance. He'll just get lost in the shuffle unless he catches a break or has a monster season somewhere.

He has to get used to at least that pitch count and he was stretched out that far (he only threw 8 pitches more than the previous outing). I don't see the problem although his line definitely doesn't look as pretty.

The platoon is working perfectly so far. Baker has been so good partially because he's getting at-bats against left-handers. He's not the same hitter against right-handers and getting the lion's share of playing time would make his numbers worse.

Colvin is supposed to start in this game for one of the 3 OF's. Not sure who though. My guess is that it will be Soriano as he has had horrible BABIP luck against Suppan in 45 AB's which has resulted in a .614 OPS against him (.194 BABIP, 3 BB, 2 HR) Byrd and Fukudome have both been better. Plus Soriano is the next one to miss a start in the rotation.

It's 7-6 Cubs. Theriot stole 2nd and came home along with Colvin on Fukudome's single.

Nobody identified what they had. There's plenty to slam Hendry over, but expecting to somehow magically know that McGehee would have any type of sustained success in the majors based on what he had shown up until he was claimed is absurd. I don't want to look it up, but didn't we have two spots open on the 40 man when we let him go? Couldn't we have at least tried to get something for him? What could they have got for a 3rd baseman whose best OPS year in the minors was 776 and had just had his first cup of coffee in the majors (24 AB's) where he had a line of .167/.160/.208 and struck out in 1/3 of those AB's? Wouldn't you be upset if the Cubs traded any value for a guy whose numbers looked like that? McGehee was a roster filler player. There was no problem by him going to a team in the division because he was more likely to cost them games by not being a major league player than what he has done.

Well, the three people who fell in this draft don't really help the Colts. Fans would love a Cody pick but he doesn't fit the system at all. Dunlap has some great tools and has the size and speed to fit the Colts system perfectly but they would hate his character and work ethic issues. I would have loved to draft Tate as a receiver/returner last year, but he would be way too much of a luxury right now. So the Colts are staying with their original pick which was Charles Brown OT USC.

Mildly surprised that it was Caridad and not Berg that was put on the DL. I Why? Because they've pitched very similarly to start the season and Caridad had a much more guaranteed spot in the bullpen than Berg did during Spring Training. While Caridad's walk totals have been up, his control hasn't been that bad. He's been nibbling a little too much and has been missing on some close pitches. That's what I'm clinging too as Tim is definitely correct that the signs could possibly lead to impending TJS.

It's so close to that deadline though that I doubt they would put somebody on the DL just to get an extra reliever for a game after an off day. It could be that Caridad's strain was going to keep him out for 4-5 days and they decided just to sit him down for 15 and bring up Gray now. But I do think he has some sort of injury as a completely phantom DL stint doesn't make much sense and Caridad wouldn't likely be the first choice to receive one of those.

If Caridad is going to the DL, I doubt it is a made up injury. He wasn't on the list of the first couple of players to likely be sent down. He also is a 26 year old with all 3 option years left, so the Cubs would feel no need to protect him with a DL stint. If they felt he wasn't good enough, they would just use one of those options and send him to the minors to get some more work.

I'll give Exile some time and make my pick around noon tomorrow if I haven't heard from him.

Opening Day lineup once again for the Cubs: Theriot Fukudome Lee Ramirez Byrd Soriano Fontenot Soto Zambrano

I think chances of this actually happening are approximately zero percent. Not even the Cobs are stupid enough to bring back Lilly after only one rehab start following both shoulder and knee surgery, especially with that start being pushed back due to back stiffness. And it makes no sense anyway, because that would mean four lefties in the bullpen (Grabow, Marshall, Russell, and Gorzellany). This may have been talk out of frustration, but in the end it's not gonna happen. And if Hendry is serious about it Ricketts absolutely must step in and nix it. This wouldn't be Lilly's first rehab start. He has already had 3 rehab starts in the minors during spring training. The original plan was for him to get 5 rehab starts and this would just cut it to 4. It would almost certainly mean that he would be on a little stricter pitch count in his first start in the majors (probably 75-90 pitches). And I don't think Russell's 2 good innings on Monday are going to save him. I think he's the one they're going to send back down when Lilly comes back which will leave only three left-handers in the bullpen again.

There wasn't much bullpen management to be able to be done tonight. 2 relievers were unavailable. Berg had already been used. The only guys left in the bullpen were Samardzija, Russell, and Marmol. They aren't going to use Marmol for a 6 out save the night after a 4 out one. Caridad was close to the zone on the first two batters. Which one of the other two do you really want to see there?