CubColtPacer

Soriano Zito Schmidt Lee Mats :pukel: I have no idea what this is. It's the board of FA's that the BBTN guys put up on Sportscenter. I wasn't even really paying attention and about 5 times I stopped and thought "hey, what he just said is completely false". That's what I get for not flipping over after the Rutgers-Louisville game. Really? I thought it was actually ok for once. Gammons described Carlos Lee as not a great hitter but not a good, for he has not even hit a 900 OPS once in his career. Schmidt they said with his velocity changing could be a risk. For Daisuke, they described his great stuff, and then said the main concern is his number of IP. Zito, the main thing they talked about was his durability. The only reason they put Soriano above everyone else is his flexibility to play different positions, and his value for many different clubs because of that, along with his physical skills. It was all basic information, but they seemed to cover it pretty well for the uninformed.

I would agree that it would have been very hard to sign Ramirez to a new deal last offseason. Here's the problem. Ramirez knows that if he has a good year, he likely will get 15+ on the open market, and if he has a bad year, he can take the 11+ for the next 2 seasons. Also, he knows that his next contract will be one of his last huge ones-if he signs a 5 year extension after last year, he won't come out of the extension until he's 33. He's not going to take 5/60 under that scenario because he knows with 1 good year he can get more, and even if he doesn't get more then, he has 2 more years at 11 per that he can prove himself again to get more. It would have taken probably 5/70 or more to get him to sign last offseason, and now it probably has gone up to 5/75 or 5/80.

I'm a huge Tyrus fan, but he didn't look good at all when the game was within somewhat of striking distance. Just an all-around bad game. Saturday's game is a huge game for the Bulls before the circus trip. I can't wait for Saturday's game. I'm stuck in TN for the whole year, and this is the first and one of the only times that I'll be able to see the Pacers. They are a much different team from last year-they want to get out and run with half their team different now. They played horribly last night without O'Neal, as he sat out with an ankle sprain-so we'll see how he does, especially after the team plays tomorrow night at home against the Magic. They are 3-2, but I expect them to struggle in the early going of the season as they get used to playing with each other, so my expectations going into a game like the at Chicago game are not high right now. Good luck, and I hope for a great game.

LOL-I was just thinking the same thing about Notre Dame, and it's the same list except of course that USC beats Cal, and Arkansas comes back from losing one of their last 3 games to beat Florida in the SEC title game, and either ND sneaks in front of Auburn or maybe Auburn would lose.

I think Ohio State will win only because I have a hard time seeing Michigan scoring a decent amount of points. It will be very much a defensive game though it looks like, and when it becomes that type of game where 1 play could change the game anybody could win.

I think alot of factors were at work. 1) I heard the Cubs wanted him to take some type of alcohol abuse class, they had a temporary conscious I guess. 2) While there is no salary cap for the Cubs, there is the Tribune budget, a form of the cap. Had Hendry gave Furcal the top dollar maybe he couldn't have filled out the roster with the Neifi Perez's, Rusch's etc. So Hendry see's Furcal's demands and backs off over a few million per season. He then drops nearly 7 million on Rusch/Neifi/Miller. 7 Million. For spots that could have been matched performance wise by players from the minors. Ryan Theirot could have done the job of Perez, any arm from AAA could have done better than Rusch. Hendry is consumed with properly allocated a roster with these role players, etc. I'm assuming he is thinking that Miller will be his "Chris Carpenter" reclamation project. I have an extreme objection to his GM philosophy. IMO, you go out and secure as many top players as possible. Then fill in the gaps from the minors. The problem with that theory about going out and acquiring those role players after failing to get Furcal is that most of that money went to Rusch and Neifi, and they both signed a month before the Furcal situation happened. Hendry had a number for Furcal, and the contract went above that. BTW, as much as it hurt last season, I'm still happy that Furcal wasn't signed for that. He doesn't put big enough numbers-if the team can use that extra money to go out and get an actual star this year, then it will be much more helpful then Furcal for two more years.

Where'd you here that? That's a great contract-I thought they would have to guarantee him at least 2.5 million.

could be, which would be a shame. If that happened, I would hope for a total clusterhump in the SEC plus Cal beating USC, USC beating ND, and Texas losing the Big XII game. Then you'l have a bunch of TWO loss teams to sort through (or open the door for Boise St., though they'll never get love from the pollsters) No, then you'd have an Ohio State-Michigan rematch.

I actually think so too-that's why I wanted Louisville to win last week. I think West Virginia's offense is really hard to stop, so the only great way to beat them is to have an explosive offense yourself. I knew Rutgers or Pitt would have a hard time beating WV, but they would have a chance beating an equally good but more traditional Louisville. Won't that be a great scene though? That game is not till December 2nd, which I think is the same day as the conference championship games-everything coming down to one day.

When Aram is a Dodger next week my point will be more clear. What exactly is your point? That the likely 2-3 million dollars at the most are what kept Aramis from resigning? Or are you saying Hendry totally ignored Aramis to get this done? 2-3 Million kept us from Furcal last year. I will say I think Hendry has been negilgent in getting this deal done for a while now. Had he approached Aram in Sept and offered 4/80 I'm sure Aram would have signed. IMO I think there was a attitude that Aram could not command over 15/per from any team. They failed to account for the fact that it was A. A thin FA class. B. Aramis was the only 3B worth a damn. Now they should just bite the bullet and give him 16-17-18 per..whatever it takes. Is it overpaying, of course, but it is well worth it. If he offered 4/80 in September, of course Aramis would have taken it-and we would have all called Hendry crazy. Are you sure you typed that right? 20 a year is really, really high.

#3 Fair or not, I doubt the pollsters put them anywhere near that high. I see them lower in the top 10, somewhere around 7 or 8 probably. What that says about the voters? Well, everyone can decide that for themselves. Let's go Rutgers! Finish this one out!

at least ahead of WVU, right? I would think they would have to go ahead of both Louisville and WVU and into the top 10-how far they would actually go, I don't know. I've just never remembered a game like this where somebody could jump from 15th into the top 10 or maybe even the top 5 based on a game in November. Usually, by the time of November, you have to have the teams in front of you lose to move up-but Rutgers would have to move at least with the 1 loss teams if not higher.

The question I'm thinking is, if Rutgers win tonight (and that's still very much in doubt) and a poll was conducted tomorrow, where would they fit in the poll?

Are people watching this game? This is getting really interesting. 25-22 Louisville after 3, and they are getting the ball back. The thing is though, contrary to the score, the Rutgers D has come to play-they played well in the first half, but get let down by their special teams several times. Second half, they've been great-can they continue to hold? It will be a great 4th quarter.

The only big difference tonight has been the special teams so far. The Louisville kick return for the TD, the extra point blocked that turned into a 2 point conversion, the fake punt that went for a long gain, and the short punt by Louisville that got nullified by the roughing the punter. I can't believe with all that they are somehow within 11 at halftime, but I don't even know if that's close enough to be effective in the second half with Louisville getting the ball after halftime.

It might be, but it might not. If it gets to tomorrow morning (or mid-day at the latest to give a little time to inform different places), then we probably won't hear anything till Sunday night at the earliest-because that meants that Seibu would have left for the weekend without formally accepting.

?? Do you think Hendry doesn't have time for both? Figure Miller at the least got between 1-2 million, while this isn't alot, what is the gap right now in regards to re-signing Aram? 4-5 million? He needs to hold off on these recovery projects and take care of buisness ASAP. Get Aram signed now. If Aram doesn't get re-signed, right or wrong, it won't be due to available funds, but rather an estimate by the Cubs front office of how much he is worth. Wade Miller's signing will have nothing to do with Ramirez's contract.

Perfect example of using stats as a drunk would use a light pole. In 2004 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman In 2005 Aramis was 4th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman In 2006 Aramis was 5th in OPS in MLB for 3rd baseman. He is top five 3rd baseman in baseball. Pay him like one. While I support the Cubs going up to Aramis's demands of 5/75, the Cubs offer of 5/70 would be paying him like one of the top 5 3rd baseman in baseball. In fact, it would be probably one of the top 2-3 salaries for that position in the league. So it's not like the Cubs aren't offering him a fair deal-but they do need to overpay him.

He's actually performed at a high level before, none of those guys have. Career ERA+ of 112. You might be lucky to get 100 innings of 90 ERA+ out of any of those other options. Miller might be able to give you 150 inning at 100-110, and it wouldn't be ridiculous if he gave you 190 innings at 120 ERA+. What makes Miller more likely to be good than any of the younger guys? The Cubs made the playoffs the last time he threw a full season, he had major rotator cuff surgery, and he was terrible in his brief stint in the majors this year. Miller's terrible end of 2006 was still much better than any of the young guys besides Hill end of 2006. Nope. Miller: 21.2 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 1.11 K/BB, 1.66 HR/9, .232/.376/.402/.771 line against Marshall: 125.2 IP, 1.52 WHIP, 1.30 K/BB, 1.43 HR/9, .270/.356/.444/.795 line against Marmol: 77 IP, 1.69 WHIP, 1.00 K/BB, 1.63 HR/9, .250/.386/.482/.862 line against Guzman: 56 IP, 1.88 WHIP, 1.62 K/BB, 1.44 HR/9, .308/.416/.507/.915 line against Mateo: 45.2 IP, 1.62 WHIP, 1.52 K/BB, 1.18 HR/9, .288/.376/.475/.841 line against Ryu: 15 IP, 1.93 WHIP, 2.83 K/BB, 4.26 HR/9, .348/.419/.758/1.160 line against You didn't even put ERA on there or any of its derivitives-while not the end all be all, it still deserves to be on there as much as the other stats. Miller had the best ERA by far, and he had the best OPS overall with everybody but Marshall, who he had a slight edge with (and Marshall was known last year for keeping those other peripherals down by shutting down the opponent for a few innings and bunching all the hits and walks into one inning-which still makes for not a great pitcher). If all 6 were to start and get a full season, then it likely would happen that 1 or 2 of the young guys might beat Miller. They only fill one spot though-and Miller is the most likely of any one of them individually to do well next year.

He's actually performed at a high level before, none of those guys have. Career ERA+ of 112. You might be lucky to get 100 innings of 90 ERA+ out of any of those other options. Miller might be able to give you 150 inning at 100-110, and it wouldn't be ridiculous if he gave you 190 innings at 120 ERA+. What makes Miller more likely to be good than any of the younger guys? The Cubs made the playoffs the last time he threw a full season, he had major rotator cuff surgery, and he was terrible in his brief stint in the majors this year. Miller's terrible end of 2006 was still much better than any of the young guys besides Hill end of 2006.

I really liked the movement on Wade's pitches at the end of the year, so let me echo the sentiment that as long as he wasn't more than 2-4 million dollars (with 4 stretching it) then this was a good sign.

i am very happy with this signing. what an amazing switch in philosophy. nobody that i know has ever advocated going up there looking for a walk. it's exactly like perry says, shrink the strike zone, look for a pitch in that area. if the pitch is borderline, don't swing, even if you have two strikes. the likelihood that a hitter is going to get a good swing on a questionable pitch is poor anyway, unless the hitter is pujols, vlad, or aram. I am with you until 2 strikes - at that point you can't let borderline pitches go IMO. I wonder what he thinks of a platoon partner for Jones? the chances that a borderline pitch will be called a ball is much greater than a player putting good contact on it. i'm not inclined to believe the conventional wisdom of "choking up on the bat and putting it in play with 2 strikes" for the simple sake of putting the ball in play. there are worse things than striking out on a 2-strike pitchers pitch. if you can't hit the ball effectively and the pitcher happens to put the pitch in an unhittable position in the strike zone, tip your cap as you walk back to the dugout. there's nothing a hitter can do. i detest the idea of swinging at a pitch you can't do anything with, it's useless. major league hitters CANNOT be afraid to strike out on a called third strike. hitters that are are usually ineffective. The chances of it being called a ball are greater-and so more hitters need to take borderline pitches on a 3-2 count. What if the count is 0-2 though? If you take a pitch, let's say you get called out 50 percent of the time. You're in a better count, so now you get a hit or a walk 30 percent of the time, where before you only got a hit 20 percent of the time (and a 10 percent increase is also probably generous just going from 0-2 to 1-2) .5 (the remaining times at bat) multiplied by .3 (your new hit or walk percentage)=.15 which is now less than if you had just tried to put a bat on the ball. Then what happens if you are now 1-2 and you get another borderline pitch? Do you swing now? If you don't, you lose another 50 percent, and then you are already out 75 percent of the time before you even finish the at-bat. Looking at 2-2 pitches and 3-2 bordeline pitches is probably going to be better (depending on the umpire) but even that is questionable, because I think that umpires are going to call you out more than 50 percent of the time, as the edge typically goes to pitchers on a close pitch.

I shall always remember his voodoo he performed on the team's bats a few years back prior to a 8 (?) game win streak. Actually, I believe it was a 12 game winning streak that followed an 8 game losing streak. I thought it was a 10 gamer...but whatever. I remember how it ended, and that sucks. Jeromy Burnitz hit a towering flyball to right, Sammy leapt at the wall and it just went over his glove for a HR. Ugh. If I'm not mistaken, that is. Well, you have it a little turned around. It was a 12 gamer, and it was Sammy who hit a high fly into the corner in right for the potential game tying homerun, and in the corner Burnitz jumped up and robbed him to end the game.

Just like the rumor the other day, I cannot believe that the Cubs would release their number before the deadline. Some teams haven't even bid yet, and if a team is going to leak their bid, they might as well have not made one. So my inclination is to dismiss this completely (although I don't think the Cubs will be the high bidder)

How does adding 2 pitchers that, at their best, are average help? Padilla and Meche could be replaced with just about any 2 names in our organization in 2007 and get the same results. It would once again be an example of overpaying for mediocrity by signing either. What pitcher in this organization besides Rich Hill could go out and make a full season of starts with a 4.5 ERA or better next year? The likelihood of one of them doing that with the chance is certainly not over 50 percent with their results this year. They would have to get acclimated to the majors very, very quickly to make that kind of improvement.