CubColtPacer

The Yankees still have to be furious with this. 21 million from Texas down the drain because of Boras. Then the PR problems of saying over and over again that they wouldn't go after A-Rod if he opted out (they aren't going to make everybody understand it was because they refused to negotiate with Boras in free agency). It's still the best move for the Yankees to make at this point, but it's a lot bigger mess for them.

Yeah. We're getting somewhere in between 2.5 and 3 million savings from the Jones trade at this point.

Yeah, 2003 was one of the only good years for the Cubs in CF. Patterson had an 831 OPS in CF in 325 AB's, and Lofton had an 858 in 203 AB's. Even with bench guys composing another 125 AB's or so, they still finished with a .302/.344/.466 line overall in CF, which is probably one of the only times they have broken .800 in CF in a long, long time.

Agreed with that, but that isn't the latest rumored trade. That one seems to have been debunked. Now the trade is supposedly Hill, Patterson, and a prospect, which is a much better deal.

I would argue that Crawford's contract, his age, his extra stolen bases at a high percentage, and his defense combined at least make up for Dunn's offensive advantage right now if not make Crawford more attractive.

And the injuries just keep getting worse for the Colts. Now Freeney is supposedly going to miss the rest of the season: http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071114/SPORTS03/311140009/1247/SPORTS Hopefully Simeon Rice can do something, but considering 2 teams have released him already this year, I'm not that optimistic.

Fair enough...sometimes the analysis on him gets way overblown though. Count me in CCP's court as well...except I'd play him in CF. If the Cubs trade Pie, I'd play Crawford in CF as well. He certainly has the speed to play the position at Wrigley.

He is an 820 OPS player who does provide a decent amount of value with his steals because of his 85 percent success rate. He also is just entering his prime and there are indications in his numbers that Tropicana is hurting his production. Overrated? Maybe a little. Everything about him suggests though that he should have a very good prime of his career at a team friendly contract, and moving him out of Tampa Bay should only help that production. BTW, I don't ever think he'll be a superstar, but he's a valuable guy to have around. He should be able to be in right field as well which would make his value higher.

I'm not aware of very many NTC's... though I know ARam has one. The money would be pretty high, but we'd be exchanging ARam, DLee, and Soriano's contracts for ARod and Hunter, with extensions due for Crawford and Santana. In 2008, we might go backwards financially, though in the next 4-5 years, the payroll would absolutely skyrocket. Probably in 2009 the payroll would skyrocket. 20 million for Santana (and that's being stingy) 18 for Z, 12 for Lilly, 8-9 for Marquis. That's a 59 million dollar starting staff even with a mininum guy with the other spot. Then you add 30 for A-Rod, 15 for Hunter, 8.25 for Crawford, and Cano being arbitration eligible. That's probably around 55 million for the expensive starting players. So you have 112-115 million right there, and don't even have a bullpen or bench yet. Then in 2010 when the others become arbitration eligible it turns into the Yankees. That sure would be fun though while it lasted :D

What gives you the impression that all eggs are in the Fukudome basket? How did one report that the Cubs have interest in him turn into now he's the one and only target for the offseason? A) there have been quite a few reports. Cubs have been mentioned more than anyone else B) theres very little mention of other big name FAs True, but there have been mentions of other options for that position. Crawford has also been mentioned repeatedly to fill the same spot, and Jose Guillen has been mentioned once or twice. It hasn't been completely Fukudome or bust, in fact it's questionable on if he's the Cubs top target or Crawford is from the reports.

None of those are exactly new though. Jones has had 1 foot out the door for a whole year now. Veal possibly going to the bullpen has been around for several months, and Cedeno was practicing in the OF during spring training. It's not like these are huge surprises. All of them have been hinted at or publicly stated for a long time now. The plan is almost certainly flawed, but there has been a consistent plan with each of those moves.

More like that Murton in RF is not currently a possibility so people are discussing which of the more realistic possibilities are the best options.

Clay Rapada

It's a player option, and he didn't file for free agency by yesterday so he's coming back next year.

Not sure what career numbers you're using for Kosuke. I'm going with the numbers from this site: http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064 .305/.397/.543 Multiplying that out by those factors gives: .292/.369/.462/.831 Pretty much a Carl Crawford equivalent, but older and without the steals. Straight up, I'd rather have Carl. Given the cost of acquisition and contracts, I'm not sure. Depends on the package required to bring Crawford to the Cubs and what Kosuke would sign for. You are concluding that Fukudome's CAREER number projections are comparable to what Crawford would put up right now (last year his OPS was .821, 10 points less than Fukudome's career projected career numbers in the US) If you compare Crawford's last 3 years with Fukudome's (when reduced to US ball), there is no comparison. Plus, everyone is making it seem like Fukudome is so old at 30. Lee is 31, ARod is 32, Ramirez will be 30 this season. Again, not that Fukudome is in the level of those players, but 30 is right in their peak years. We are taking about giving a 4 year contract to a 30 year old. How much regression do you think you'll see at 34? Not much We're just saying that if you want to use Fukudome's last 3 years compared to Crawford's, that's fine. You have to use a different reduction system though then the one you linked, because that one uses career numbers. You can't say that all these Japanese players hit 93% of their career numbers so Fukudome is going to hit 93% of his numbers in his prime. That's comparing apples and oranges. You either have to use career numbers, or translate everybody's numbers again that came over from Japan using their last 3 year data.

Well no, I don't expect him to say that either. That would be a little extreme. I didn't think lowering fan expectations is a good thing. Are you saying it's good for Hendry to head off the booing because we're sure to suck? Why are we apparently not considering real improvements at the position? Maybe Jim should just come clean and tell us he can't get any money for improvements right now, so he'll do the best he can but don't expect too much in '08. That's the underlying message I'm getting, wouldn't you agree that's the way it's shaping up? Why are they not considering real improvements for the position? Because they seem to be actually willing to stick with a prospect for once even knowing he's going to struggle for a while. I think that's a good thing. Pie's going to stick in CF next year, and Hendry is telling us that he doesn't have to produce offensively for a while in order to keep his job. That allows Pie to relax and to develop into the type of prospect he can be without worrying about his job security;

We could probably get away with both upgrading SS and signing Fukudome. I was on the Murton bandwagon for years, and I could probably live with having Murton in RF instead of Fukudome, but at the same time you have to wonder how many chances he is going to have. Every year we expect him to breakout, but every year he ends up on the bench. I'd like to think its just the Cubs org not giving him the opportunity, but he has been our opening day starter the last 2 years and has managed to end up on the bench or demoted to the minors both years. He is basically our Austin Kearns. Good OBP, moderate potential for power, a butcher in the field, cannot stick in a starting lineup. If we can solve our major glaring problem (OBP) by getting one of the top 3-4 OBP guys on the market (behind players like Bonds and ARod) we'd be stupid not to. Fukudome isn't going to OBP 400 in the states. He'll be a 360-370 guy. A smidge better than Murton. Based on what? The last 3 years in Japan, his OBP is .430, .438, .443. Even with his sure drop in HR numbers, how can you expect less then 90% of those numbers in the states? His OBP the last 3 years has been .401, .368, and .438. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Kosuke-Fukudome.shtml ??? 2003, 2004, 2006? What happened to 2005 and 2007? http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064 Lol..I actually looked at 2 different links and still got those same years. Thanks for the correction. BTW, that would make Fukudome's career translation as this: Fukudome: .293/.369/.462 A little better than in my last post. If that author in that link is correct in his assumption, that means Fukudome will probably be somewhere in between an 800 and a 850 OPS player in the U.S.

What do you define as replacement level? I'd only define maybe 2 of those guys as replacment level. The others are average ballplayers who are overpaid (and the jury's still out on Marquis. With the way the pitching market is going, he may end up as an around average starter at an average or below average salary). Plus 3 of those are relievers, and there are tons of average relievers around the league that are overpaid, and the list grows every year.

We could probably get away with both upgrading SS and signing Fukudome. I was on the Murton bandwagon for years, and I could probably live with having Murton in RF instead of Fukudome, but at the same time you have to wonder how many chances he is going to have. Every year we expect him to breakout, but every year he ends up on the bench. I'd like to think its just the Cubs org not giving him the opportunity, but he has been our opening day starter the last 2 years and has managed to end up on the bench or demoted to the minors both years. He is basically our Austin Kearns. Good OBP, moderate potential for power, a butcher in the field, cannot stick in a starting lineup. If we can solve our major glaring problem (OBP) by getting one of the top 3-4 OBP guys on the market (behind players like Bonds and ARod) we'd be stupid not to. Fukudome isn't going to OBP 400 in the states. He'll be a 360-370 guy. A smidge better than Murton. Based on what? The last 3 years in Japan, his OBP is .430, .438, .443. Even with his sure drop in HR numbers, how can you expect less then 90% of those numbers in the states? His OBP the last 3 years has been .401, .368, and .438. http://thebaseballcube.com/players/F/Kosuke-Fukudome.shtml

Thats irresponsible reporting if they report Monroe is the head of any trade package. Anyways, I'd rather have Fukudome than Crawford any day of the week. -Fukudome is better in the area we need more help in, OBP -Fukudome doesn't cost anything in terms of players -Fukudome will probably be making less than Crawford by the end of his contract. Fukudome is older and most definately cost more. Crawford is due 23.5 mill over the next 3 years. If Fukudome doesn't at least get 8-10 mill per over 4 years I'd be surprised OK, I didn't realize Crawford was extended. I thought he was still doing arby. But still Fukudome will put up better numbers than Crawford. He's 30, not 38. People are looking to give 8 year deals to a 32 year old ARod, but are concerned with giving a 4 year deal to a 30 year old. Granted Fukudome is not nearly in the same class as ARod, but I would not be concerned about regression between the ages of 30-34. It's not regression so much that people are worried about, it's more about how his skills will translate to the U.S. Most people I think believe that he'll be productive, but it's hard to say how productive. Personally I don't see how someone can say that Fukudome is going to put up better numbers than Crawford. Maybe comparable numbers, but better? Crawford's OPS the last 2 years is .830 and .821. Now maybe Fukudome can put up similar numbers OPS wise with better OBP, which of course would be a little better. How high is his upside though? Can he be a 900 OPS player? At the same time, Fukudome could easily be somewhere around a 750-775 OPS. Fukudome has the advantage in defense, but Crawford's 154 SB's over the last 3 years at an 85 percent clip is a nice weapon as well. Crawford's definitely the less risky option IMO. He's younger (and still theoretically hasn't entered his prime), he has less variability in projections, and his contract is better. It will all depend on how much the Cubs would have to give up in trade to see if Crawford is the better option or not, but I just don't see how you can look at the contract and numbers and say that Fukudome will be better. He has a chance to be better, but more likely not. It doesn't matter if he is better. From your argument I would conclude that you think that Fukudome would at least be 90% the player Crawford is, with the potential to be 110% the player he is. Looking at how other players who have come over from Japan to the US have fared, you could expect his OBP to be around 93% of what he is putting up in Japan, his SLG to be about 85% of Japan numbers, and (not that it matters) but his BA to be within 96% of his Japan numbers. Using his numbers from the last 3 seasons, that would put him at roughly: .307/.404/.490/.894 The difference of course being that his SLG is going to come largely from doubles instead of HRs (source for Japanese translation: http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/176072/how_well_will_japanese_baseball_import.html) The key point is, Fukudome addresses a much bigger need than Crawford addresses. He will likely put up an OBP over .400 and a SLG similar to Crawfords. Edit: I forgot about my point in this. If you are getting a player thats roughly the same value of another, what is more important to you, keeping players like Rich Hill and prospects like Gallagher on the team, or spending an additional $3-5 million per year. Obviously just guessing on the players given up, but Crawfords name value is extremely high, and even with the new GM in Tampa, they've been reluctant to trade players unless they get more than adequate value for them. Even if those projections are completely correct, your math is wrong on Fukudome's last 3 years. Here would be his projections to the States using his 3 year splits and 96% BA, 93% OBP, 85% SLG: Fukudome: .304/.377/.521 Still a great player there, just a little different. Plus, the author of that article is using career statistics for those players in Japan, while you are using 3 year splits during the prime of Fukudome's career. If you use 3 year splits for Ichiro and Hideki Matsui in Japan, the conversion rates from Japan to US drop a lot lower. For example, Matsui's last 3 years in Japan he had a 1092, 1080, and an 1155 OPS, and his career numbers that the author used only had him at a 995 OPS in Japan, which is a significant difference from using his 3 year numbers. Fukudome for comparison had a 1005, 937, 1091 the last 3 years. If you use Fukudome's career Japanese numbers like the link was doing for every other Japanese player and then convert them, you get: Fukudome: .289/.360/.456 That's what that author would project for Fukudome in his career in the U.S.

Thats irresponsible reporting if they report Monroe is the head of any trade package. Anyways, I'd rather have Fukudome than Crawford any day of the week. -Fukudome is better in the area we need more help in, OBP -Fukudome doesn't cost anything in terms of players -Fukudome will probably be making less than Crawford by the end of his contract. Fukudome is older and most definately cost more. Crawford is due 23.5 mill over the next 3 years. If Fukudome doesn't at least get 8-10 mill per over 4 years I'd be surprised OK, I didn't realize Crawford was extended. I thought he was still doing arby. But still Fukudome will put up better numbers than Crawford. He's 30, not 38. People are looking to give 8 year deals to a 32 year old ARod, but are concerned with giving a 4 year deal to a 30 year old. Granted Fukudome is not nearly in the same class as ARod, but I would not be concerned about regression between the ages of 30-34. It's not regression so much that people are worried about, it's more about how his skills will translate to the U.S. Most people I think believe that he'll be productive, but it's hard to say how productive. Personally I don't see how someone can say that Fukudome is going to put up better numbers than Crawford. Maybe comparable numbers, but better? Crawford's OPS the last 2 years is .830 and .821. Now maybe Fukudome can put up similar numbers OPS wise with better OBP, which of course would be a little better. How high is his upside though? Can he be a 900 OPS player? At the same time, Fukudome could easily be somewhere around a 750-775 OPS. Fukudome has the advantage in defense, but Crawford's 154 SB's over the last 3 years at an 85 percent clip is a nice weapon as well. Crawford's definitely the less risky option IMO. He's younger (and still theoretically hasn't entered his prime), he has less variability in projections, and his contract is better. It will all depend on how much the Cubs would have to give up in trade to see if Crawford is the better option or not, but I just don't see how you can look at the contract and numbers and say that Fukudome will be better. He has a chance to be better, but more likely not.

Why would the Cubs pay any part of it? They didn't have to pay Monroe in the first place if they didn't want to.

I'm kind of shocked someone is willing to trade for him when the Cubs were going to release him anyway. How do the Twins justify his 5 million dollar salary with their payroll? Maybe they are going to non-tender him and then re-sign him to a lower deal.

No. He isn't supposed to be a free agent until next year, but the Cubs were likely going to non-tender him later this month. Still. Why would the Rays want a crappy outfielder? That must be one hell of a minor-league package we're giving them if we're also giving them Monroe. I have no idea on that part, which makes me highly skeptical. I guess we'll just wait and see though. If it was a minor league package, it almost certainly includes Gallagher though (he's the only guy that's big enough in the minor league system that the Rays would want).

No. He isn't supposed to be a free agent until next year, but the Cubs were likely going to non-tender him later this month.