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It seems more and more likely that Harrison will miss the game. That would change the gameplan significantly without his threat on the field. Although Bob Sanders wasn't supposed to play last year in the Colts-Patriots game until about an hour before gametime, so who knows.

He'll be playing, 100% sure. And have alligator arms every time he is thrown to. Pats in a yawner. Alligator arms? When did Harrison ever become a reciever who has alligator arms? Certainly not against the Patriots. He has had his bad games against the Patriots, sure. But also he's had: 8 catches, 145 yards, 2 TD's last regular season 9 catches, 128 yards, 2 TD's in 2005 If Harrison plays, watch who Asante Samuel covers. Whoever he doesn't cover will have the better day, as Ellis Hobbes can't cover either Wayne or Harrison, unless Harrison is completely hobbled.

How does any OF rack up two OF assists at first base on consecutive days?

assume they're out of it Ok, here's my somewhat complicated answer. I bid 1 dollar more than the leader has currently if it means that if he's betting enough to shut me out he'll finish lower than me if we both get it wrong. Here's a scenario like what I'm describing: Me-7600, Him-10000. I bid 2401 here (1 dollar more than he has). He has to bid 5201 in order to shut me. So if we both get it right, he wins of course. If we both get it wrong, I win. If I get it right and he gets it wrong, I win. Also, if he bids 0 in this scenario because he knows nothing about the subject, I still have a way to win, while if I bid 0 that isn't available to me. If I only have 6000 to his 10000, I bet it all. Bidding 4001 won't help here because he doesn't have to bet enough for it to matter if we both get it wrong. The only real way to win in this scenario is to get it right and for him to get it wrong, and so the best thing to do is maximize your payday if that happens. If the 3rd player becomes a factor, there are lots of different strategies to use depending on the situation and how close everyone is. The player in 2nd always has a really tough bet in those situations (as opposed to 3rd place, where you bet it all just about every time, and 1st place, where you bet just enough to shut the others out just about every time).

How much money does 3rd place have in this scenario?

The last 3 times the Colts played the Patriots, they put up 40, 27, and 38 points up. This Patriots defense is no better than the one the Colts put up 27 and 38 up against last year. Plus, the Colts in the past year have become really good at running the ball and throwing short passes, methodically moving down the field and controlling the clock. I'm not sure the Patriots will even get enough possessions to put 50 up. This game could be a 14 point swing on both sides, but I have a really hard time seeing either team win by 21 points. Both defenses are good, but can they really stop either offense?

Quit thinking like that...now its 2 years 14 million...still bad, but not as bad. Actually, it's $16.25/2. Even worse. And while I get the "only 2 years left" plan for making yourself sane, the truth is that we can't pretend that he didn't have an effect on our team in 2007. Both in performance and salary that could have been allocated in areas of greater need. I don't think that 5 million would have helped anywhere in 2007 in another area. In fact, if we just look at last year, that 5 million for Marquis was much better than anything else we could do with that money (look at all the other players who got 7 million or less, it's not a pretty sight). There was no minor leaguer that could replace Marquis's production from last year or any free agent in that price range. Those next 2 years are probably going to make the contact a whole lot worse though, although it depends on if Marquis can stay around average, and if the pitching market continues to be insane (the latter probably more likely than the former).

Coors is 415 feet to CF, not 315. The CF wall is a little further back than most ballparks, so if the ball traveled the same number of feet then Tim was right, it would be out in most ballparks. The thin air needs to be factored in to the equation, but I'm not sure how much that would add to the particular ball that was hit.

I didn't support the Big East love on here at all last year, but the Big East is getting cheated in the coaches poll. The fact that Connecticut and South Florida are behind teams like Florida and Auburn is absolutely ridiculous, especially the South Florida-Auburn comparison. Auburn has played the 7th hardest schedule to 13th for South Florida. Auburn has 3 losses, South Florida only has 2. Then you add in that South Florida has beat them head to head, and it doesn't make sense that Auburn is ahead of them now. For Connecticut, it's a little harder, but Connecticut has still played comparable schedules to Ohio State, Missouri, and Oklahoma, and is way behind them (especially Missouri and Oklahoma, who both also have one loss). I think all 3 of those teams deserve to be ahead of a 3 loss team like Florida, but somehow the other 2 are 10 spots ahead of Florida and Connecticut is somehow behind them.

That's possible, but I don't think that many teams have that kind of faith in their farm system. There are many GM's out there who will put pretty good value on the fact that Jones hit .332 after the All-Star Break. Jones is easy PR spin for a team who doesn't want to make a big splash in free agency. I can see the press release now: a veteran who's been on several playoff teams, hit .332 after the break, plays all 3 OF positions, and only has 1 year left on his deal. He'll be that guy who gets the casual fans excited for a team who isn't expected to do much in free agency. I can see Jones staying with the team because Hendry will demand value in players in addition to just dumping the salary. If he wants to just get rid of the salary though, that should be somewhat easy to do.

I'm told they "still have some work to do" on that. I don't know why. I don't understand how the team can pay Dempster and Wade Miller to rehab when they had about 1/200 of the upside that Prior has. The situations are a little different. Dempster and Miller were paid less than Prior will be (Miller got 1 million, and Dempster got 1.5 maybe??, while Prior gets 3 mininum). Also, Dempster and Miller were signed in January when the free agent season was basically over. The team knew that their money was already spent, and so there was no reason to not take a risk with whatever leftover money was spent. The decision on Prior has to be made before that when the team doesn't really know how much money they are going to spend in free agency. They won't know at the time if signing Prior will keep them from having the money to sign somebody, while in Dempster and Miller's case they knew they weren't getting anybody else. I'm not saying the Cubs shouldn't tender Prior a contract, but there definitely are significant differences between the situations beyond the fact that Prior has much more upside.

Sounds good. Only 1 big problem-you just upped the payroll by 30-40 million dollars. Do the Cubs really have that much payroll flexibility? Are you sure? No Floyd, no Prior = $10MM. Barrett is gone, replace by Soto = $4MM. Let's be generous and assume Jones can be moved after eating $2MM. Finally, maybe Ohman gets moved to free up $1.5MM. Then if you sign Fukudome for let's say, $8MM/year, sign Kuroda for let's say, $4MM/year (re: Iwamura and Okajima money), and take on $8MM/year max in new salary with Tejada and your new LOOGY, then it looks like we're talking about a net increase of maybe $10MM max?? The problem is that several of the Cubs starters are also getting raises from last year. As it currently stands, the Cubs are at about the same payroll level as last year, even after losing the salaries of Floyd and the other free agents. Besides, Floyd and Prior together made less than 8 million, not 10. Barrett only made 2.5, not 4. I'm not sure Kuroda will go for that cheap either. I think it will be more likely that he'll get Kei Igawa type money. I'd also be suprised if Fukudome signs for less than 10 million a year. Tejada is supposed to make 13 million next year. I don't see how you're going to get the Orioles to eat that much money to squeeze both Tejada and a LOOGY for only 8 million combined.

Why couldn't he get 9/288? Even if some team thought he was worth that, who has that kind of money to throw around? Most of the big money teams either don't want A-Rod, don't have the money to spend right now, or already have the left side of their infield completely locked up.

Sounds good. Only 1 big problem-you just upped the payroll by 30-40 million dollars. Do the Cubs really have that much payroll flexibility?

It almost certainly won't matter, but that timekeeper on the spike was horrible. It was 23 seconds when they lined up over the ball, and they spiked it immediately. It should have stopped at 22, but then it went down to 21. As the QB was walking away, it then started again and went down to 20, and never got corrected.

Well, with some ranked teams still playing or yet to play (and some of course playing each other) so far in the BCS rankings: the #8, 10, 11, 12, 14, and 15th teams have lost. Another ho-hum day :D There are 2 matchups left between top 25 teams. So 2 will lose from those games, and then I'll predict that 2 others go down tonight making 10 of the top 25 losing today.

I have no problem with them doing it given what USC has done the past 5 years. Oregon is the higher ranked team and they were favored in the game though only by 3. They should have won the game. Rushing the field should be reserved for upsets of higher ranked teams. This wasn't an upset and the higher ranked team didn't lose. I'm usually in favor of fans rushing the field but it's just stupid in this case. I have no problem with them rushing the field. The students in that student section have never seen Oregon this high before. They have a shot at the national title, absolutely needed this game to have a shot at the title game, and were playing a team who had destroyed them and everybody else the last few years. You add all that and add a very close game decided in the final minute, and rushing the field is a natural reaction for those students.

i love the OT system and wish the NFL would adopt it Really? I think it's terrible. I wish college would use Sudden Death like the NFL does. There's just way too many instances of games going to 3rd and 4th overtimes in college, Multiple OT's is one of the best parts of the college football OT. To be able to experience the game going longer and longer and the tension level gets higher and higher as the OT's go on. Let's say the Colts-Patriots game goes into OT next week. Do you really want the winner of that game to be decided by an OT coin flip? Because with those two teams, their prolific offenses, and their great kickers, that's exactly what it would be decided by.

well said, excellent post... Taking a page out of CRs book. My projected starting lineup: F/C- DJ White- 6'9 Senior F- Lance Stemler- 6'8 Senior G/F- Jamarcus Ellis- 6'5 Junior (JC Transfer) G- Eric Gordon- 6'4 Freshman G- Armon Bassett- 6'2 Sophomore Key bench players: G AJ Ratliff- 6'3" Senior F Mike White- 6'6 Senior F DeAndre Thomas- 6'8, 300lb Junior (JC Transfer) G Jordan Crawford- 6'4 Freshman Key losses: Roderick Wilmont (12.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG), Earl Calloway (9.6 PPG, 4.3 APG). The only thing I will say to that is that Holman will almost certainly be getting more critical minutes than Mike White by the middle of the season. Crawford, Ratliff, and Holman will probably be the big 3 bench players for IU this season, with Thomas and Mcghee playing some and White struggling to get into the rotation.

Maybe not if he hears the Yankees and Mets are about to go on a bullpen spending spurge. I'd be shocked if Eyre declines the option, but if he did I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him get another good deal. Some team would look at his second half numbers from this year and overpay him based on that.

This part I'm not so sure I agree with. He still has to find a way to make sure he gets the most run production and run prevention for his dollar. I would not be surprised in the least if he has people on his staff who compile statistics on more than just OBP and OPS, you know? That stuff fits with the SABR community quite effectively. True. Let me express it another way. The saber community looks for value on the playing field. Who can give you the most value for the amount of playing time that they are in? Beane looks at it the same way, but slightly slanted. Who can give the most value player on the playing field relative to the market? At the current time, saber principles are still not used by a majority of major league teams. Therefore, players that are valuable on the playing field are sometimes undervalued in the market, and Beane has picked up a lot of those types of players. If sabermetric principles become much more common on major league ballclubs though, then the players who are valued now who sabermetric people say are way overrated (players like Juan Pierre, for example) will suddenly become not nearly as valued. Several of his interviews would indicate that Beane has absolutely no problem with going with a lineup that would be both average and speed driven with little power and not as much OBP, and if those players suddenly became bargains he would happily pick them up. He would still consider that to be a good team in that scenario, while the saber community would most likely conclude that the team doesn't have nearly the same value. That's where I believe the two split, although their premise is both similar and in two related areas.

Billy Beane's fantasy. Yup. This is not a knock against anyone in particular in this thread, but I hate how people have mischaracterized Billy Beane since Moneyball... The book was about economics and exploiting markets more than anything else. Beane's philosophy as A's GM is about exploiting undervalued parts of the market, not just about finding guys who won't be selling jeans any time soon. At the time, on base percentage was grossly undervalued in the market and allowed Billy Beane not only to acquire these productive players, but also to pay them less than they should be paid for their production. That last part is critical to his philosophy, especially considering the Athletics operate on a limited budget. You have to find ways to work within a market to get a relative bargain. Considering OBP was one of the things Beane and his people thought was undervalued at the time, the book spent a good portion talking about OBP. However, as anyone who has ever taken Econ 101 will tell you, markets will move to correct these deficiencies. OBP has become a much more acceptable metric to gauge a player's productivity. Guys Beane could once acquire for a relative bargain are now valued at a level closer to what they should be paid. For this reason, Beane has to find other ways to exploit deficiencies in the market. I don't know what standards he is using to determine value and future productivity for players these days, but I'm willing to hazard a guess that OBP is not nearly as important in making those determinations as it was when Moneyball was written. As far as now, Beane said in an interview a couple of years ago that it has really shifted to pitching and defense that is slightly undervalued that he's going after. He even said that if speed players became undervalued, he'd happily take a complete speed lineup that all stole 50 bases and played small ball. In many ways, Beane does not agree with the sabermetric community. The saber community would say that there are certain ways to construct a team that will be most effective. To Beane, it's all about the dollar. If the parts are undervalued, he'd happily take any of a high OBP offense, a high power offense, a great defensive team, or a heavy speed team. It really doesn't matter to him.

I don't believe anybody suggested Sizemore as a realistic option, he was simply a hypothetical alternative to Soriano at the leadoff position to decide who would be more productive in that spot. In fact, I think his name was only picked out of the air because he his OPS+ is very close to Soriano. I don't think anybody thinks that the Cubs would be able to trade for him.

Yea thanks Miami, could you at least try playing some kind of D? Nah, if Miami's not going to win I need some passing TD's from Brady. Oh dont worry you will get them. Its not like Belichek has any class and will stop passing the ball. Hell they were up 35-7 and still passing. I hate Belichek and Brady sooo much. Having Brady presents an interesting problem for me: I absolutely despise teams who run up the score, but the Pats doing it with Brady helps me. I get confused sometimes. :? This isn't pee-wee football. No its not. I cant wait for the day when Belichek has it happen to him so his crybaby ass will wine though. Keep padding those stats for Brady though its cool, sooner or later a middle linebacker will get a good shot on him. When has he ever cried about anything? And you might be waiting for a while. Actually cried? Never. He got really upset at the Colts for going for 2 with 5 minutes left up 19 in the 2005 game though. He called it classless and unnecessary (which I disagree with considering how good the NE offense was even back then, and the fact that the Colts had come back from 21 down with 4 minutes to play just 2 years before). He seems to have no problem running it up against worse teams though. I'm not even talking about today yet. I will only classify it as running it up if Brady is still in passing by the end of this quarter beginning of the 4th. He has shown at other games though that he does not mind rubbing it into other people, even though he hates it when people do it to him.

You still think this is a safe bet? You've still got a small shot at this, but 42 combined points with 6 minutes to go in the first half doesn't spell good things for you :D