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CubColtPacer

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Everything posted by CubColtPacer

  1. CubColtPacer
    If it's successful the tying run is in scoring position. and if it's not you're down to your last out and need a home run to tie it. I'm not saying I agree with it, but I don't think it's terrible. There was good reasoning behind the decision. Getting the tying run in scoring position if fine motivation, but the reasoning isn't all that great when you consider the consequences. Running with runners on 1st and 2nd and 1 out is actually the ideal time to run. You need to make it less than 60% of the time to make it worthwhile (less if the catcher throws to 2nd than to 3rd). Then when you add in that the team was in a situation where the team needed 2 runs and stealing becomes even a better option than normal. On the other hand, Youkilis is more of a fly ball hitter which is a detriment to stolen bases, and both him and Wright are threats to get the extra base hit that ties the game. It's one of those rare calls where both sides are pretty equally defensible. Against a very tough reliever, I can see why the manager would think that the stolen base/single combination is more likely than an extra base hit.
  2. CubColtPacer
    I always thought it should be the topics recently posted in (with social/rants taken out if possible). It just seems to me that the most active discussions should be the ones highlighted. That is especially true when the season starts and the game thread isn't even on there because it had been made the day before. The same goes for threads that have continuous discussion the first month of the season talking about a certain position. Those are the threads people remember so those should probably be the ones on the front page.
  3. CubColtPacer
    Rule 5 Lefty He's done real well so far this spring. 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 6/0 K/BB He's actually a right-handed pitcher (although with my track record lately you probably meant something else by lefty :D). I'm actually really surprised by him. I got to see him in the WGN game the other day and he looked really fluid with pretty good stuff.
  4. CubColtPacer
    That's basically what the Cubs did when they traded Marquis for Vizcaino in the first place. True. I should've said "so we're going to trade a guy we don't want who has no use for another guy we don't want who has no use." What he's saying is that it may have been cheaper to just release Marquis then to trade him for a bad contract. I don't think so. There is no way that the Cubs releasing Marquis would ever have been cheaper. They would have had to pay his full contract if that happened. Even if the Cubs release Vizcaino today, they still save approximately 5 million dollars over what releasing Marquis would have done.
  5. CubColtPacer
    yes, it's very meangingless. what does a player on the washington nationals have to do with anything regarding who should bat 2nd in the cubs lineup? .379 vs .359 is .02. your point about hitting to the right side naturally is valid though. i'm just not ready to essentially demote a guy after a solid year, in hopes that fukudome won't suck so badly like he did in '08. Thanks for the correction..I'm not sure what I was thinking! Yeah, I understand that thought about letting Fukudome prove he's doing better than Theriot before switching them. At the same time, baseball is a game of guesses. You'll always be behind some teams if you take the safe route and just go on past performance..as a GM and a manager you have to take your best guess on what these people will do in the future and be willing to make those tough calls moving your pieces around. Plus for lineup balance if you move Fukudome to 8th that puts Fontenot, Fukudome, and a primarily left-handed bench in the final 3 spots of the lineup, which makes it much easier for teams to bring in a left-hander to mow them down.
  6. CubColtPacer
    Yes, stats about performance in all situations, including when a runner is on first, can't possibly be used to predict how one can do if a runner is on first. That would be just asinine. what are you talking about? if you were actually following the discussion, you would see that the topic was theriot's ability to move runners over. when you show me data that includes his at bats with the bases empty, that's irrelevant to the discussion. If a guy hits a lot of grounders to the left side, chances are he's going to hit a lot of grounders to the left side even when there's a runner on 1st. that's not true at all. professional baseball players have the ability to hit the ball to the right side if they want to, theriot seems especially good at this. your dunn versus theriot comparisons are meaningless too so i'm not even going to address that. But if your swing is not naturally tailored towards it then you are sacrificing a lot of your ability to get a basehit just to hit a ball to the right side. Kosuke hits a lot of ground balls to the right side naturally. So he actually becomes a better person to hit runners over because he can do that while striving for a base hit at the same time. And a minor nitpick: Kosuke's SLG was .2 better, not .02.
  7. CubColtPacer
    I could show you his hit charts. They show that most of Theriot's outs are groundouts to the left side and fly balls to right field. Since we also know that most of those flyouts are medium depth or less, those types of outs are not conducive to moving runners over. He does have a decent amount of groundouts to the right side, but not nearly as many as to the left side. Here's Theriot's hitting chart for Wrigley from last year: http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?playerID=444135&statType=1 Edit: And as SSR mentioned, Theriot grounded into the highest percentage of double plays of any Cub last year. That isn't a quality I particularly want from a guy who is praised for being able to move runners over. Those are going off projections. 6 projection systems have Theriot's OBP as: .366, .360, .359, .355, .353, .345 And Kosuke: .386, .368, .361, .357, .349, .338 So they are extremely close in the projections. That is because Japanese players typically have a bounce in their numbers in year 2, and Theriot's numbers are likely to slide down slightly just because last year was his highest OBP season in the minors or the majors (other than the just over 1 month stint in 2006). That could be repeated, but it typically isn't.
  8. CubColtPacer
    well when we're talking about the number two slot, to me obp means a whole lot more than slg. which is why i think he's a great 2 hitter. that and the fact that he can move runners over, hit to the right side on a hit and run, etc. OBP is a very important statistic for a top of the order hitter. But Theriot and Kosuke are likely going to be at least similar OBP players next year. So the difference between who bats at the top of the order and gets a lot more at-bats has to be based on another factor with that one so close. And Kosuke's likely big slugging edge gives him the leg up on taking that #2 spot. As for moving runners over, Theriot is actually pretty poor about it. The majority of his groundouts come to the left side while his flyouts are to the right side. He's a little better at the hit and run, but it's better to do the hit and run at the bottom of the lineup where more risks need to be taken and batting behind Fontenot gives him the opportunity to do it. Batting behind Soriano is going to have more straight steal attempts and less hit and run. Theriot's just fine as a #2 hitter. But Kosuke is a better version of Theriot so it doesn't make sense to bat Kosuke 6 spots behind him.
  9. CubColtPacer
    cincy lost their last three games - they got blown out at syracuse, lost at south florida and then home against seton hall. i'd guess they're just not playing well right now and that's why they won today. it'd be the greatest thing ever if depaul won the big east tourney, but the odds of that happening are like 10000 to 1. That's actually probably underselling the chances, even after today happened. Conference tourney odds I'll go out on a limb and say at least one of the teams who are listed as 100% to win Round 2 will not, in fact, win Round 2 Round 2 odds are to make it to round 2. And all those teams who are listed as 100% are listed that way because they have a bye to that round so they automatically make it.
  10. CubColtPacer
    Go up to search and then put your name in the search by author section and you'll see your posts with the latest ones being first.
  11. CubColtPacer
    Heilman adds another strikeout and no hits in his 3rd inning. Marshall is almost certainly going to win the job because he hasn't done anything to lose it. But that has been quite a competition so far: Marshall: 9 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K Heilman: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 12 K
  12. CubColtPacer
    That pronouncement seems to pretty much solidify Lou's initial lineup against right-handed pitchers. Soriano Fukudome Lee Bradley Ramirez Soto Fontenot Theriot Pitcher That's a really well arranged lineup especially if Fukudome and Lee can bounce back a little bit. Your weakest hitter (Theriot) is at 8, but he also is going to be on first a lot so the pitcher will be able to bunt him over. It's also a nicely balanced lineup that is going to make it hard to easily matchup opposing relievers against. If Fukudome struggles you can always flip him and Fontenot. We haven't heard much yet about against left-handed pitchers. My guess is that Miles will start the year in the 2 spot with Reed 7th and Theriot 8th, and then hopefully one of Reed or Theriot (probably Theriot) take the 2 spot against left-handers during the course of the season.
  13. CubColtPacer
    Warpticon is on the clock and has been PM'd.
  14. CubColtPacer
    PSU should roll past IU. Penn State beat Indiana by three points in Happy Valley last weekend. Yeah I forgot about that. Shouldn't have said "roll" but I still give them a solid edge. Well, yeah, they're almost certainly going to win. Indiana's not good. But I don't expect IU to get rolled either. And the first game was between 6-8 most of the second half and was within 4 with under a minute to play in the game. I like the Penn State matchup for IU. They aren't a team that is going to completely take IU out of their offense and they are a poor free throw shooting team for when IU has to reach because of their lack of athleticism. No team is a good matchup for a terrible team, but this one gives IU a chance, which would not have been the case if they had drawn Wisconsin or Ohio State. The questions become if Dumes comes back (if he doesn't, IU just won't be able to score consistently enough to win) and if IU can outshoot Penn State from the 3 point line. If I had to guess, I would say something like 68-54 Penn State victory, but that's only because Crean will play it out the final whistle. It will be a 7 point game or so before Crean goes nuts with fouling even after the game is long since over. I don't see Penn State falling into the trap when they're playing for their season though.
  15. CubColtPacer
    Hill takes a big step forward in the backup catcher race with a 2 for 2 day with a double and a walk so far. That's the day after Piniella had this to say:
  16. CubColtPacer
    mhuber92211 has been PM'd.
  17. CubColtPacer
    So IU's opponent has been narrowed down to Penn State, Michigan, or Northwestern. At least those 3 opponents IU has had a chance to beat in at least 1 of their games. I was dreading having to play Wisconsin or Ohio State and I wasn't too thrilled about playing Minnesota either. IU will probably lose to any of the teams that face them, but at least they have a chance against those teams if they can shoot the ball well. Dumes is out for tomorrow's game against Wisconsin. That lowers IU's chances of winning from .001% to .00001%.
  18. CubColtPacer
    That's a good point. I've updated the draft order and PM'd ELCABALLO45.
  19. CubColtPacer
    Why would you say that? Hill started with most of the other starters on Wednesday night. Randy Bush seemed to give them an equal chance in his interview on Thursday. I would assume they would be leaning towards Bako but I haven't seen anything from the club about that yet. But I personally haven't seen all the news that has come through either so it's quite possible I missed something. Hill. Can't. Hit. No, he can't. But then again, neither can Bako. Hill's outhitting him so far. It will be interesting to see if that continues throughout the spring as they get more at-bats.
  20. CubColtPacer
    Why would you say that? Hill started with most of the other starters on Wednesday night. Randy Bush seemed to give them an equal chance in his interview on Thursday. I would assume they would be leaning towards Bako but I haven't seen anything from the club about that yet. But I personally haven't seen all the news that has come through either so it's quite possible I missed something.
  21. CubColtPacer
    they called time out with 31 seconds. it's ten seconds to get across half court from when the ball is inbounded, not 10 seconds from the 35 seconds when the possession began. Is that rule different in the NBA then? I swear I've seen basketball games where teams take a timeout in the back court and the announcers say "they need to remember that they only have X seconds to cross mid court once they inbound it". I believe that this is true that in the NBA the count does not reset because of a timeout while in college it does.
  22. CubColtPacer
    Is that the official pick, or do you want to wait for CFNBM to chime in before making it official? This was his post from Monday: I might wait a little bit, but I wouldn't wait too long for him as he has a decent shot of being there already (and I apologize to him if he actually isn't and shows up later).
  23. CubColtPacer
    Robnett hits an easy fly ball to left and the game is over. The Cubs lose 4-3.
  24. CubColtPacer
    That wasn't Theriot. It was Bako. This time..it was Bako :D
  25. CubColtPacer
    Theriot had taken 2nd on defensive indifference. Reed Johnson with a bouncer up the middle for a 2 run single. 4-3 White Sox now. It's all up to Robnett now.
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