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CubColtPacer

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  1. From the Cubs.com article, Ramirez is out again today. They hope to start him tomorrow.
  2. We had talked about the Theriot conundrum in the offseason. With the swing he showed in 08, he had no possibility of getting much slugging. He hit line drives either to straight right field or center. Those rarely stayed up in the air long enough to be able to split fielders. He occasionally hit grounders down the lines which is where a decently large percentage of his extra base hits came from last year. The question was if he could add power without hurting the other parts of his game too badly. His power in 06 and 07 was better, but he also wasn't as effective in 07 using that stroke. I think he can still hit more fly balls than last year and be effective. His worst ground ball/fly ball split has still been 1.59 in his career so he's still going to be primarily a ground ball/line drive hitter. I do not believe his power is an anomaly here (although the home run numbers are inflated..he probably would be very happy to finish between 5-10 home runs and he has 2 after just more than a month) but instead I've seen a completely different approach from Theriot this year. My concern is that his strikeouts are up and his walks are down. If those stay anywhere near where they are, he is going to have issues if his BABIP doesn't start to line up with his LD percentage. It looks like Theriot is swinging at pitches more often this year and is simply missing more pitches inside the strike zone, so his peripherals would indicate a continued decline in the walk rate due to his approach but I'm not sure if he will continue to miss pitches that are in the zone. This change in approach is risky but it probably was needed. Theriot needed some room for error and some room to avoid being unlucky with his BABIP like he was in 07. His power is still exceptionally poor and he cannot hit too many home runs even with hitting the ball as squarely as he can, but as long as his fly balls are hit squarely he should be all right even though it will likely result in more outs being made.
  3. On a happier note, we got three guys who will probably never wear a major league uniform in exchange for DeRosa. Woohoo! Hey, I'll trade you these 3 pieces of chewed up bubblegum for 1 piece of unused bubblegum. It's 3 pieces. Not one, not two, but three pieces. You in? I still don't like the DeRosa trade one bit. But the thought that the three guys that were traded for him will likely never see the major leagues is not really right. One of them (Stevens) is pretty much a lock to reach the majors as a reliever. Another (Gaub) has a pretty good shot as another reliever, and the last (Archer) could either flame out completely or be better than the first two. Archer still also has the potential and the stuff to be a starter. The main problem is that you typically don't want to trade players for prospects who profile as relievers. But the first two guys are still decent prospects even with their low ceilings precisely because they are very likely to be able to contribute to the major league ballclub in the future. And Archer is the classic high ceiling prospect who nobody can hit but with the question of if he can hit the strike zone often enough.
  4. Ramirez thinks he's just a couple days away from returning and the Cubs decide to send Scales back to Iowa (who was waiting in Chicago in case he needed to be activated): http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/1905#comments Although Lou has this to say: From Lou and Hendry's quotes, it looks like they aren't ready to give up on their original plan for the roster but they are much closer to making a change then they were before.
  5. I agree that Fergie was a little better than Maddux was over their Cubs careers, but I don't think time with the team was one of the big reasons for that. Jenkins spent almost 10 years with the Cubs. He spent most of 8 years with the team near the beginning of his career and came back for his last 2 years. Maddux spent around 9 seasons with the Cubs..a little over 6 at the beginning of his career and a little under 3 near the end of his career. There is just not a lot of difference there. Maddux also probably had the best season of either of the two in a Cubs uniform but Jenkins was more consistent as a Cub than Maddux.
  6. I think Fox would be an unmitigated disaster at third base. Let's just start off with the bunt factor. When you combine his lack of range and lack of experience at the position, every fast player on other teams will be bunting for hits. It takes time to learn how to make the quick glove and off balance throw, and Fox will have to rush it over there because he won't be getting to the ball that quickly. Then you add in that he has range problems on normal balls and from all that we've heard at other positions he would have some serious hands issues as well. His arm would be the only thing that would not be terrible at that spot. In response to GR about Miles, most of his defensive problems are at SS. He's about average at 2B with below average range but turns the DP well and has good hands. It's when he goes to SS that his range really hurts him. Going from Miles to Fox would keep 2B defense about the same. 3B defense would be much worse and the lineup would be better (and possibly much better). I really think Fox is actually below the minimum capable level at third. Other teams can't target Fontenot out there even though he is poor at the position but they definitely would target Fox.
  7. i would say scott moore, but he hasn't hit much since we traded him. Scott Moore's gotta be out of options by now doesn't he? At least Moore was foolishly traded away for a worthless pitcher. Craig was pooed on by the organization from the second they drafted him. Moore is out of options. The Orioles got him through waivers and removed him from the 40 man roster.
  8. Freel at 3rd and Fontenot at 2nd has to be better than Fontenot at 3rd and Miles starting on a regular basis. Doesn't it? Freel has enough speed to replace the roster spot wasted on Gathright. No, it really isn't. Freel probably isn't an upgrade over Miles with the bat at this point and he's lost a few steps over the last couple years so he likely isn't any better than Fontenot defensively at 3rd. Trading for Freel could actually make the situation worse instead of better. Now, if we could get the Freel of 3 to 4 years ago, he would be worth it. But the current one that has had a severe knee issue and a torn hamstring the last couple years has lost the main thing that made him decently valuable in the first place.
  9. In order to obtain an .830 ops this year, what ops would he have to put up the rest of the way? Depends on how many at-bats he gets this year. If he has 400, my calculations would have him needing an .857 OPS the rest of the year to get to .830 overall. But I'm not very confident about that answer although it should be in the ballpark of what is needed.
  10. He might be building some sort of value, but I highly doubt it's killer. He might be able to be considered worthy of being the throw in for a lefty reliever or something. Agreed. In the offseason and spring training, nobody was interested in him despite the Cubs trying hard to sell him (apparently to multiple teams, I know Hendry tried to convince Seattle to take him in the Heilman deal). Fox might actually be building some trade value now, but it's hard to build up too quickly from zero. It's not like his weaknesses aren't still there..but an AL team might be a little more interested now.
  11. Lee/Johnson 4/5 makes that debatable. And a non-functioning Soto adds to that debate. Well, right now it might not be a great lineup. But that has more to do with how certain players are playing and not the injuries. And even then we can only evaluate how these players have started out against right-handers because the team has had very few at-bats against left-handers. That's not really indicative of how they would do against a left-handed pitcher considering the huge splits of many of the Cubs hitters. Normally the top 6 hitters in that lineup are all good to excellent against left-handers. All of them are better against left-handers than right-handers, but especially Lee, Theriot, and Johnson.
  12. oye. I can't wait till we're back to full strength. That's only one hitter different from a regular lineup against left-handers (Ramirez for either Miles or Fontenot). Sure, that one is a big loss, but that's still a quality lineup against a left-handed pitcher.
  13. A nit-pick for sure, but he had 2 hits in last night's game. He's 3 for 28 now.
  14. A unique sequence in the Tennessee game. It's not very often that you'll see a team bunt with their relief pitcher on deck, and then the other team respond by intentionally walking that relief pitcher. It did not work out for Carolina though as Tennessee has scored 3 runs in the inning, the last 2 coming on Barney's third hit of the game. If Barney can show a little more with the bat than last year (which he is doing quite a bit so far) then he will likely be the player pretty soon here who is called up if the Cubs need another backup middle infielder. That's pretty much what his destiny is..to be a 2nd backup MI on a major league team.
  15. He's available. And he was suspended the last 3 games of last year, so I'm not sure that he would be suspended at all this year. If so, it wouldn't be more than 1-2 games. His suspension from last year is finished. But he's at least somewhat likely to get suspended again since he violated the terms of his plea agreement during the offseason.
  16. Searle is done for the night. 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 9 GO-3 FO
  17. That's what everyboyd says when they get caught. They didn't know it was banned, they didn't read the label, they didn't know what they were taking, their doctor/trainer/teammate gave it to them, whatever. Romero's big claim here is that the packaging did not indicate that the supplement contained a certain substance. I would think that part should be easy to prove if he still has the packaging. I don't know how he's going to prove the part about the clerks assuring him he wouldn't test positive. Also even if it's true that the clerks assured him that there wasn't a banned substance in there, he has to prove that it was likely that they were intentionally misleading him. That is a problem on multiple levels. 1) They are not considered experts on baseball's banned substance list and so unless he asked them specifically if it contained a certain ingredient, their opinion even if it was wrong is certainly not illegal. 2) They would have to prove that the clerks knew that the banned substance was actually in the product. First, it's unlikely that the clerks knew anything more than the packaging. And even if they did, it would be extremely difficult to prove that they did because you would have to prove how they would have obtained the information in the first place. The case against the manufacturer seems stronger because it's not reasonable for them to not know what's in their own product. I don't know if Romero would have to prove that they left it off intentionally or just that they showed negligence by leaving it off.
  18. Anybody heard anything about a Colvin injury? He got pinch-hit for last night in the 8th and now he isn't starting today. One or the other might seem like normal usage, but both doesn't seem quite right.
  19. Or not. It's the Colts third round pick. They pick somebody somewhat strange and he busts. It's 11 years and counting now with no real solid picks among them. Hopefully Powers possibly breaks that streak, but I don't see it right now.
  20. Wells couldn't see the field for the Colts. If you can't block or catch the ball, you can't be a RB in the Colts system. It has nothing to do with talent level. I think we all agree that Wells is the more talented pure runner, but he would really hurt the Colts when he was on the field. If the Colts drafted Wells, the only time they could really use him would be as a goal line/3rd and 1 back, and you don't draft a RB in the first round for those two situations.
  21. Agreed. Moreno would have been the pick if available. Brown also fits the Colts offense. Wells wouldn't have been picked under any circumstance. My guess is Brown was 4th or 5th on their list of 6. And with the only great options at DT gone and no receiver that sticks out, it makes sense to go RB now.
  22. Welcome to the forum! Lou loves to pull stunts in April and May. I guess he thinks it keeps his team loose.
  23. Enough bad moves become devastating, however. If you keep the core of your offense and the core of your rotation intact, and you've selected good players for those positions, you'll be ok. Hendry has done a good job of that the last couple years. His problems have come mostly in the bullpen, the bench, and a couple of the lesser offensive positions. Those mistakes cause frustration but don't hurt the ballclub to a huge degree. He also has issues with overpaying for players. But overpaying for players isn't horrible if you overpay for the right players. And very few of the Cubs high priced players have blown up and been busts.
  24. Terrible GM's rarely get first place finishes and a 97 win team. That is even with the large payroll teams out there. The fact that Hendry was able to put together that team pretty quickly takes him outside of the worst 5 GM's. Money does give you more room to recover from mistakes. But the most limiting factor in baseball is still the 25 man roster. If the GM is a bad judge of talent the money is still not going to make them win. Hendry has lots of weaknesses, but the thing that keeps him afloat is that all his weaknesses are in the less important areas of a ballclub. He makes lots of bad moves, but he rarely makes the devastating move. As for the farm system, most people believe it is on its way up now. They had 4-5 bad drafts in a row all the way through the 06 draft, and so in the last couple years once the players in the high minors left there were no good prospects to replace them. The last two drafts have started to restock the system once again (even with one of the top 3 picks of the last 2 years already being traded) along with the further expansion of international signings. Those players are all still in the low minors which is why the rankings are still so low for the system (close to the majors still means a lot in prospect rankings). I'm not sure how much to blame Hendry for the 4-5 years of bad drafting. He probably deserves some of the blame but it's hard to tell how much input he has.
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