badnews

This is what frustrates me. We are indulging in revisionism too much in this topic. Seriously, does no one remember all the now-scrubs Carmona was ranked behind throughout his minor league career? Anyone have a copy of the past few Baseball America Prospect Handbooks and read up on Carmona? Nowhere is his awesome 95 mph sinker mentioned. I'd like two things addressed: 1) If Carmona's velocity was this great in the minors, why does Gallagher's K/9 put his to shame? Keeping in mind their G/F ratios were similar in the minors. 2) If Carmona's sinker was so much better, why wasn't his G/F ratio much better in the minors? There's only one explanation that fits, to me. Carmona added velocity or pulled something new out of his pocket. Because a guy with a 95 mph sinker in the minors doesn't put up 1.80 G/F ratios in the minors and give up more hits, home runs, and get fewer strikeouts than the guy with the above-ascribed worse stuff. As for the guy who complained about Gallagher's 2007 numbers, here are Carmona was poor in 74 innings in 2006, and in his first 17 innings he posted a 7.94 ERA. Not impressive, eh? As I stated in my first point, the point was not so much that Gallagher and Carmona were terribly alike, but that it's possible Gallagher can make a tremendous jump. If you have the old Baseball America Prospect Handbooks, read up on the old Carmona descriptions and be struck by the similar moderation in them. As for Hart, I have little confidence in him. He's my bet for the David Aardsma/Rocky Cherry of next year, the guy that everyone expects too much out of based on too little. I'd rather have Gallagher than Hart. Of course I'd rather stay away from Renteria too but that's another story.

For the fun of drawing parallels of minor league numbers that may cause a double take (Everyone enjoys the comparisons of the minor league career of perennial offensive deadweight Jose Lopez and Miguel Tejada, or Johan Santana and everyone), I've found the similarities between the numbers of Gallagher and Carmona interesting. Carmona and Gallagher have put up some similar career numbers, with Gallagher coming out ahead in some surprising categories. The first thing people will jump on here is Gallagher's higher walk rates. Gallagher does beat Carmona handily in the K/9 category though, which leads us to one fallacy: people look at Carmona's major league G/F ratio and assume his K/9 was low in the minors because of his G/F ratio, yet Gallagher and Carmona's G/F ratio in the minors are surprisingly similar. Carmona was not a 3.28 G/F ratio guy in the minors. Most years I kept up with him, he was a 1.60-1.80 G/F ratio pitcher, right in Gallagher territory. It's worth mentioning that no one thought Carmona would dominate AL hitters the way he has. Carmona's lone appearance on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects List was at #76, and on all his appearances on the Indians' Top 10 Prospects Lists he ranked behind some less-than-stellar talent, like Brad Snyder. Both Gallagher and Carmona hit the same levels at around the same age, and both of them got bombed as relievers in their first go-around with their respective clubs. Now, I'm not saying Gallagher will have the success Carmona has had. Carmona has been nothing short of fantastic and it comes as quite a surprise. This topic title is meant more as an eyecatch for how legitimate a case Gallagher has made. But my point is, I've seen Gallagher's name bandied about in some mediocre trade proposals, and most people's offseason wishes seem to be elaborate schemes to make sure we never have to give Gallagher a shot. I hope we don't continue this bullpen long man nonsense and give him a legitimate shot in the rotation to see what he has.

They don't swing at every piece of crap within 4 feet of the strike zone? After watching that game, and then watching some of the Cubs again, the difference is still amazing. It's like the Cubs had no pitch recognition and just guessed wrong most of the time, like they decided what they were going to do well before the pitch was thrown.

Yay, Aaron Rowand. He's what the Cubs need alright: - Another guy who can underproduce but we can talk about how hard-nosed, blue-collar, and gritty he is. We can also bring up him crashing into a fence ten times a day. Oh yeah, everyone is complaining about Jones's offense in 2007, let's compare Jacque's 2007 OPS to Rowand's 2005 and 2006. Grrrreat. - He gives our lineup that low to medium-low walks righthanded hitter who strikes out more than 100 times a season that we're sorely missing. - Getting him will boost us above the Baltimore Orioles as the kings of overpaying for marginally above average talent. - Had career highs in just about every category in a contract year, well I'm convinced.

No, unfortunately it is that bad.

Why should Fontenot even be on the 25 man roster? Doesn't a utility man play more than one position? He plays second base and that's it. Unless you call that business he does out there at shortstop actual "fielding." I think the standards of utility men must be really low for the Cubs. You either have to be versatile or you have to hit. Fontenot does neither. In fact, what does Fontenot do well at all? Basestealing isn't an asset. That one good month followed up 3 incompetent ones isn't exactly the hard sell. There is no logical reason to keep Fontenot on the roster whatsoever. I'd rather take a gamble on a promising Rule 5 guy.

Wow. Why is everyone selling Aramis Ramirez short? He's posted a .900+ OPS the past four years and he's improved a lot defensively, he's a power hitter who rarely strikes out, he's on the right side of 30, and he's under contract for a decent price. Why on earth do you have to toss Pie in with that horrid, horrid, deal? Ervin Santana? Is any pitcher in baseball more overvalued? I'm tired of Ervin Santana worship. I remember when the guy was the center piece of a rumored Carl Crawford deal. Minor league numbers, good but not great, can't pitch outside of his own park, horrible year this year, enough with the Santana love. The Angels probably don't have enough for Ramirez alone, period. To me, Ramirez is worth more in trade than Mark Teixeira when he was traded. The Angels would have to give up a ton for the Cubs to even consider it. And Chone Figgins? Oh yeah, that BABIP of OVER FOUR HUNDRED is real convincing to me. That is a hideous trade proposal. I couldn't even read the rest of the post I was so mortified.

I think there's no way the Rockies trade Hawpe and it's pretty doubtful the Marlins trade Hermida. The options look poor in this market. The best we could probably do is buy lower on Chad Tracy, though he's not much of a right fielder. Pie and Marshall seems like a pretty high price for Joe Blanton. I'm not a big fan of A's pitchers moving elsewhere. Those guys make Alan Embree, Lenny DiNardo, and Kirk Saarloos look plausible. Not saying Blanton's in that class but I don't think he's due for the NL friendly bump either.

I've outlined above why I don't think Renteria is a good bet to replicate what he did in Atlanta here. I'm not a fan of buying at unconvincing highs. At least to me, I don't think the Cubs are the team where guys who hit their peak come to and continue that peak. Especially from "get more from less" places like Atlanta. Most teams already have a Marshall, and it's hard to see him as the centerpiece of any big deal. Garland has had success in the past and he has the whole "I can Ted Lilly/Bronson Arroyo 2006 My Way Through the NL" thing going for him. Wandy Rodriguez is probably more valued because he's actually shown he can pitch a decent number of innings and can strike more guys out. I just don't buy it - we give Marshall the vote of no-confidence for Trachsel and he's a good trading chip? There's really no reason for the Braves to even value him above Jo Jo Reyes.

I'm not going to argue about Pie. Too many Pie supporters are as gung-ho as cult fanatics and there's nothing you can say. Pie's defense was good but it wasn't as good as advertised. People said his arm was better than Jeff Francouer's, but we know how many assists Francouer racked up in a short time, and how many Pie has, and it's not because nobody's running. He doesn't have the howitzer people have boasted about. He could succeed but he also could not. In any event I'm not going to respond to the ten posts of sputtering outrage this post will generate so we'll have to agree to disagree. Pie is good defensively, but people have exaggerated. That's all I'm saying. Somehow this will get distorted into "He's Adam Dunn out there" I fear. I don't think Jones is great. I just don't think you give away a .735 OPS good defensive center fielder for less than nothing.

I'm saying if a guy has a year down from his career averages, it doesn't automatically mean he's toast. The more I read on this topic, the less I understand. Why are we so up in arms to get rid of a good defensive center fielder, .735 OPS guy who hit well in the clutch? What about all of the people carping to give Rowand 4/40, who had OPSes of .736 and .745 in back to back years? Jones had a higher OPS than Andruw Jones, David DeJesus, Melky Cabrera, Coco Crisp, Vernon Wells, Dave Roberts, Juan Pierre, and Corey Patterson. His OPS was within 15 points of Taveras, Johnny Damon, Gary Matthews Jr., and Bill Hall. Are most of those guys just going to be given away? Every fielding metric said he was very good defensively in center field this year. His salary is fine, look at what A. J. Pierzynski got for doing nothing well, offensively or defensively, this year. The more I think about it, the more it seems like a gut-level reactionary stance. Selling a guy at the bottom of his value is such a Cubs move. The best offers we had during the season were: The Cubs pay 90% of his salary and get back some other team's version of Jesse Estrada or Jamal Spearman. How about no way.

Beltran had a .744 OPS his first year with the Mets. Andruw's OPS is barely higher than Jacque's. Let's sell at rock bottom value while picking up most of his salary while counting on an unproven rookie, that seems smart. To me, this makes as much sense as people who want to get rid of Prior just so we can feel like we're "moving on."

I'm not as opposed to this article as others. I don't have a ton of faith in Pie either, and I don't like Jones, but what does trading Jones for the crap offers out there accomplish? He played a good defensive center field and he does average 22 home runs a season. I don't see the logic in paying 90% of Jones's salary in exchange for a 25 year old player in Low A ball just so we can sit back, fold our arms, and say "Ha! Take that Jones!"

That's not sexy. For that kind of money I want a Justin Verlander fastball and a Tim Lincecum curveball, not the scouting report for Matt Morris' middling years.

I thought the Brewers snagged him.

I blame the Diamondbacks trading for Richie Sexson for these proposals. The Diamondbacks threw like 7 pieces of junk at the Brewers for Sexson and 2 of them actually turned out to be way better than expected. Therefore, I propose a similar trade: Les Walrus Kerry Lightenberg Dwaine Bacon Jamal Spearman Dave Veres Candy Maldonado

Before he went to Atlanta, Renteria was still way more likely to put up a .735 OPS season than anything that stands out. I think before he went to Atlanta his career OPS was .740. With all the Jon Garland for Renteria rumors, I don't think we could match that easily and I wouldn't want to.

One of the three guys I thought the Cubs would've been better off spending Huseby's money on (the others being Walden and Latos).

Both are short term contracts (2 years). Sure they are on the decline, but they are still MUCH MUCH MUCH better than what we have. Renteria is especially attractive because hes only owed 6M a year. Also, we traded Cherry to Baltimore. I think if Renteria came here it'd be like his time with Boston all over again. Tejada posted a .799 OPS... neither will come cheap in a trade. What makes you think that Renteria being here would be like Boston all over again? Tejada did have a .799 OPS in the AL East, without having the luxury of hitting against the Orioles pitchers. His post-ASB OPS was 822. Like I said earlier, I don't expect these guys to come over and OPS 1000, but they will surely provide a signficant upgrade over what we had in 2007 and Theriot in 2008. Marshall's value is at its highest, I say sell now. Packaging him with someone like Patterson should net us Renteria. The explanation given for Renteria's struggles in Boston were that he doesn't play well in colder weather and he doesn't like media attention. Renteria can be really sullen and he's never been a favorite of mine. He had two very good years with the Cardinals before becoming a free agent but most of the time he was a .735 OPS type shortstop. I don't trust him to come over here and produce like he did in Atlanta. The AL East didn't seem to be a pitching hotbed anymore than any other league... he got to hit against the first half Yankee pitching and Devil Rays relievers too... The problem is also that I don't find your trade proposals realistc. Sean Marshall has poor trade value, less trade value than Wandy Rodriguez. Teams are hardly all over themselves for a moderate groundball lefty who can't crack 100 innings. What's Marshall's upside, Mark Hendrickson? "We're just dying for that pitcher you unceremoniously dumped for Steve Trachsel." Patterson's not a great prospect either. I think the cost will be a lot higher than you've posted here, which is part of my objections.

Is that the same "timing mechanism" Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire used?

Both are short term contracts (2 years). Sure they are on the decline, but they are still MUCH MUCH MUCH better than what we have. Renteria is especially attractive because hes only owed 6M a year. Also, we traded Cherry to Baltimore. I think if Renteria came here it'd be like his time with Boston all over again. Tejada posted a .799 OPS... neither will come cheap in a trade.

Shouldn't a team that added Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, and Alfonso Soriano have improved more than that? Everybody says "You can't turn impatient hitters into patient ones" but Soriano did take more walks than ever in 2006. It's just a defeatist attitude. If Jose Reyes came up through the Cubs' system he'd still be taking 5 walks a year, let's face it. I can just imagine what the board would say if the Cubs grabbed David Ortiz from the Twins: "Oh well, can't make him anything more than he already is."

Andruw shouldn't. He's a good player. He's put up a 121 or better OPS+ in 4 of the last 6 years, including his horrible 2007. The other year (2004) his OPS+ was 113. He's still only 30, so it's not even close to being out of the realm that he could produce like his 2005-06 seasons, which would make him the best offensive player on the current Cubs team. If you don't want to sign him because he'll probably get a Soriano-like contract that will bite a team in the rear near the end of it, then I understand, but to lump him in with Hunter, who is severely inferior, is wrong. The obvious problem I have with this is expecting anyone the Cubs pay a lot of money for to come and produce like their best season after their paycheck is secure. It takes no imagination at all to imagine paying $20 million a year for the 2004 offensive numbers of Andruw Jones. I'll agree that Jones would be far better for the Cubs than Hunter. At least Jones is not yet another righthanded stooge who can't take a walk. Imagine batting Soriano, Hunter, and Ramirez in a row - three righties who conceivably could have more home runs than walks. Jones's fielding metrics are better than Hunter's too, but again, not as great as reputation suggests.

A lot of the shortstops listed may need a move. Brignac may. Nobody seems sure on Escobar. I've alternately heard Erick Aybar described as "Gold Glove calibur" and "better at 2nd." At least we know Cedeno can play shortstop. His problems there are the range-type problems that would be helped by a move to second. They're more like routine-play type problems. I can't believe the Mariners let themselves get robbed on Choo and especially Cabrera just to get both sides of a bad DH platoon. I can't believe other teams weren't jumping there left and right. And that Rafael Soriano trade, too bad we couldn't rob them of Truinfel as long as they were making such bad decisions. A good idea might be a Theriot/Cedeno platoon. For whatever reason Cedeno hits righties in the majors better than lefties, and Theriot is pretty bad against righties.

I'm not so sure about this with respect to Kendall, depending on what type of FA designation he gets. Lots of teams need catchers and love having veterans behind the dish. If he gets Type A, a team that sees this upcoming draft as not being particularly deep would be fine plunking down some change for Kendall instead of sinking that money into a draft pick. If he gets Type B, nobody loses a draft pick and it might make him easier to move. I'll take any bet that says we're not getting compensation. There's no chance he gets a Type A, no chance at all. Type B... we can't offer him arbitration because of his ridiculous salary. Nobody's going to be in any kind of hurry to sign Kendall.