badnews

I think the Braves' prospects hype system is a scam. I went on record in June saying I didn't think Saltalamacchia was that good, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he was another Andy Marte. I've never been any kind of impressed with Lillibridge or Escobar either. Any time the Braves are ready to trade a prospect, it's like San Diego trading a reliever or the Devil Rays a veteran closer - stay away. Let's go even farther beneath the radar for a sleeper - Sean Rodriguez for the Angels. Ronny is a better bet to break out at shortstop than guys who gets more hype - I'd bet on Cedeno over the much ballyhooed Erick Aybar. Lastly, I trust Renteria about as far as I can shotput a planet. Before he went to the Braves he had more mediocre seasons than good ones. It was a cold year early in the year in Chicago, I don't want to have to listen to any moody complaining about how he can't hit anywhere that's not 90 and muggy.

Are Darin Erstad and Nick Punto free agents then?

The Brewers concern me, but the Cardinals are worrisome as well. Their GM probably is going to want to make a big splash to re-invigorate the fanbase. At this low point in morale, any number of nightmare scenarios seem plausible. Matt Clement, 20-6 with a 3.22 ERA with the Cardinals. Miguel Cabrera traded to the Cardinals for Reyes, Rasmus, and Thompson or some nonsense. I still have trouble believing that 2004 teamdidn't make the playoffs.

Obviously we won't be getting compensation back for Kendall or Trachsel. Unfortunately I think most of this talk may be fruitless. Two years ago at this time Drew Rundle was one of the top 3 high school outfielders in the nation. It's easy to see the organization bumbling away the first round pick for someone not worth it (Francisco Cordero, Ron Mahay, or Hunter) or losing it to a better signing regardless. Probably not a ton is going to fall past the now-enormous compensation round. Hopefully Selig won't be able to blackmail the Cubs into not paying higher bonuses and we say "**** you" like the New York Yankees did. It'd be nice to get a Porcello-level talent around #19. I doubt the Cubs' 2008 draft can be worse than the Astros' 2007 though.

The Devil Rays have a very enviable record wit their 5+ round draft picks, one that I'd love the Cubs to have. I don't see a ton of change from Stocksill to Wilken, just like the Devil Rays' drafts don't look a lot different since Wilken left. I wonder if picks like Jacob McGee were Wilken picks or D-Rays' picks, because I don't see any signs of us landing a McGee or other brilliant Wilken steals. The primary focus area still seems to be the southeast, Virginia, Florida, etc. and we still seem to be going for low-ceiling college guys like we did with Stocksill, instead of trying to land the future Matt Kemps, Curtis Grandersons, Joel Zumayas, even guys like Sean Gallagher who have better value than their round would augur. Tony Thomas may have been a Wilken pick, but guys like Colvin, Barney, Guyer, Ty Wright, Marquez Smith, Leon Johnson, Wyatt, Samardzija, Lansford, Kopach, Camp, all seem like guys that would've been picked under Stocksill anyway. I'd like the Cubs to use at least one mid-round pick a draft apiece on the youngest high school pitcher and the youngest high school outfielder they can find who will sign. Some of the guys who come out of high school are barely 17 and others are almost 19, pick up a couple of barely 17 year olds on a gamble and year and maybe they'll develop in a way no one can expect. I'll give you an example, in 2006 the Phillies drafted an outfielder in the 5th round, D'Arby Myers, who was only 17 and a half. Now, he's not any good, but I'd rather roll the dice on a guy like that than flush the pick down the toilet with a guy like David "Trey" Taylor in 2005, who the Cubs drafted twice and I never even saw pitch. Two other examples of "The youngest guy available:" Brandon Erbe and Sean Gallagher. Vitters fits this example for sure, but I mean taking a guy Vitters' age in the mid rounds, a pitcher and an outfielder.

I haven't seen the PCL list obviously, and I'm not a big believer that Soto will do awesome things in the majors, but that looks like a pretty low ranking for a guy who put up his numbers at his age, despite repeating the level, even his park/league adjusted numbers are good and there's positional value. I suppose one way to think of prospect rankings is to yourself "Would I trade Player X for Player Y straight up?" I wouldn't trade Soto for D'Antona, Koshansky, Balentien, Ankiel, Melillo... Brandon Wood is looking iffy with those strikeouts, and those numbers should be better playing his home games at a launching pad. Daric Barton is "supposed to" develop more power but until he does he just looks like the next Scott Hatteberg. Maybe I'm giving Soto too many points just for playing catcher and actually being able to stay there.

Besides Bonds. Let's not use this topic to bash Bonds, I was hoping we could rip some other players. For me, it's Torii Hunter. This team shouldn't be plunking down $16-17 million a year over 5-6 years to sign a guy with a career .793 OPS and a poor basestealing percentage. They shouldn't fork over huge money for yet another righthanded hitter with the combination of: over 100 strikeouts a year; few walks; a lot of fuzzy intangibles about what a swell guy and winner he is. Also, there is no fielding metric on the planet that says this guy is as good an outfielder as people say he is. I hope he meant what he said about Wrigley's brick wall. Okay, what about you? Which free agent do you least want to see in a Cubs uniform? Maybe go more for the guys considered upgrades instead of the Tony Armas-type gambles.

Obviously this is something of a rhetorical question. I just have this feeling like the organization has blown its best chance to get back to the World Series in years. Remember how much this team improved from 2003 to 2004, and there was no question that the Cubs would make the postseason again in 2004? We replaced a joke of a Choi/Simon/Karros platoon at 1st with Lee, one of the best hitters in the NL. We replaced horrid 5th starter Shawn Estes with Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. We essentially replaced Dave Veres with the best setup man in baseball, LaTroy Hawkins, and replaced Mark Guthrie with Kent Mercker. We were unstoppable. Yet injuries took their toll and other teams improved as well. This concerns me. We can improve in the offseason and nothing will be guaranteed. The Brewers you figure would get better with experience, and Gallardo seems like a sure thing to get better and better. Worse yet, the Cardinals. The team that excels at making something out of nothing. I doubt the new GM is just going to sit on his hands and not improve the team. It feels like the end, the best chance we had in a long time, gone, with no more to follow. Yet I'll continue to follow this organization, wondering "what if" at the offseason A-Rod rumors, recoiling in terror at the Torii Hunter rumors, letting the pain subside, and setting myself up for fresh disappointment yet again. So it is with us.

He showed wicked stuff that fell right off the table! It takes a great pitcher to hold Soriano and Ramirez, two of the better hitters in the NL, totally in check. I also want to give a special shoutout to the board member who "guaranteed" there would be a Game 4 and Lou's decision would look great. ------------------- That's it for the angry, sarcastic part of the post. Now I would just like to be as sore a loser as possible. No congratulations, no head shaking about how "It just wasn't in the cards" or "Gosh darn, they just had our number." I don't think the Diamondbacks were a better team than the Cubs. Their offensive numbers were worse. Their defensive numbers were worse. Their pitching was worse. (All of this during the season). Who had the best OPS on the Diamondbacks? Eric Byrnes at .813? Give me a break. #2 and #3 starters Davis and Hernandez? A couple of high WHIP, ugly number stooges. The Cubs should've beaten the Dbacks. That's why nearly everyone picked us. But the Diamondbacks were better prepared and better managed. I think the Cubs have done a horrible thing here. Going through the Diamondbacks and Rockies, the road through the NL to the World Series is as easy as it has been in many years. The Cubs had their chance to go to the World Series, a very good chance, and they flat out blew it. No lies to sugarcoat things. They blew it.

Where does Soto end up on the PCL list?

How do you know he's #7 on the Southern League list, or are you speculating? I thought it hadn't been released yet. Hopefully so. I think Soto will do more than sneak in there, I mean, he's not Justin Leone or anything, and the number of quality legitimate catching prospects has been thin lately. I think he'll make it, or he should.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore;_ylt=ArJwnuvW9RGJeyK.792b_6aFCLcF?gid=260525120 Check out the Astros' stolen base line. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=260525120 Will Lou cry?

That's the exact same thing I'm thinking. Seriously, someone explain this. I've been saying Kendall/Hill would be a poison match-up ever since the Mets were eliminated. Consider this: Rich Hill was tied for 4th in the NL in stolen bases allowed with 23. Chris Young and Greg Maddux of the Padres (hello Michael Barrett?) were 1st and 2nd. Jason Kendall is the worst catcher at throwing out baserunners in the major leagues for those who have a qualifying number of innings. The Diamondbacks are tied for the 3rd most steals in the majors since the All-Star Break. Can the foolishness of this decision be overstated? Okay, the Cubs could win the game, definitely. But it isn't logical. This would be like if the Angels were facing the Yankees in the ALDS, Game 7, bottom of the 9th, a 3-0 lead, bases loaded, and the manager brings in Bartolo Colon to face A-Rod (look up those splits if you don't remember). Yeah, maybe Colon gets A-Rod out and wins the Angels the ALDS. But it doesn't make any sense. Kendall should've caught Zambrano if he needed to play, Zambrano is one of the better Cub pitchers at not allowing steals. Furthermore, Soto has been one of the better Cub hitters. There's been an off day. Soto and Hill are more used to each other than Soto and any other Cub starter. I can definitely see the Cubs winning this game and people saying "How dare you question Lou." But it doesn't make sense. Even an .846 OPS isn't that awesome. If Lou is so interested in the splits, hey, why not put Sean Marshall on the roster? He did very well against the Diamondbacks. I'm baffled and a little sickened by this.

Why do this? I don't know... I think we need more to justify the kind of hype that is going on. The wrong ones apparently. And the Baseballcube has slightly different ones still. In any event, their numbers aren't terribly different, the investment in Iwamura seems reasonable, whereas all the chatter about Fukudome seems to indicate he'll get a lot more. Iwamura, Fukudome, and Johjima all had standout years their last years in Japan (assuming Fukudome goes to the MLB). Of them all, I would've imagined Johjima would've stood up the best because his blend of contact skills and power (since 2001 at least) were pretty intriguing, and his numbers have been nice but not his last 2-3 years in Japan. Johjima's contract is also very reasonable. Would anyone go 4 years, $48 million on Fukudome? I wouldn't. Even if he hits somewhat better than Iwamura it still seems like money poorly spent. If you would go that high, than what's the maximum money/years you would offer? Perhaps I've gotten the wrong impression about the expected contract of Fukudome from internet rags. Iwamura's contract is reasonable. Johjima's contract, absolutely. 4/48 for Fukudome does not seem reasonable, yet that's the ballpark people keep mentioning. Maybe I should rephrase it - at what monetary figure, ballpark, do you lose interest in signing Fukudome?

I don't agree. Everybody loves it when a guy "shows fire" after screwing up but the fact is that little performance doesn't endear him to me after the way he crapped out. Winning is the only thing that matters. I wouldn't give a damn if he was a lifeless, unemotional robot if they won. Throwing a tantrum after you've gotten your ass handed to you because you decided to fall behind every hitter doesn't seem cool to me. When you win nothing is cool, nothing at all.

Why can't people understand that logic doesn't apply to being a sports fan? If it did we'd all go with better teams and better-run organizations. I didn't break anything, but I've just been in a horrible mood lately. I think it would almost be better if the Cubs didn't make the playoffs at all, because I'm incensed the Cubs are pissing away this opportunity. I could stand the Cubs losing to a legitimately great team, but damn it, I honestly feel the Diamondbacks and the Rockies are not that good, and this is the easiest NL road to the World Series in years, and we're crapping it away. Hey, if we were losing to the Cleveland Indians or Boston Red Sox, well, you know, I'd expect that. But I expected this team to give the Diamondbacks a real fight and kick their asses, no joke. Now they just look so fundamentally unsound, so frightened, so bewildered and unprepared. What's with Ted Lilly suddenly afraid to throw strikes and getting behind every batter? I thought Rich Hill was the king of defeatist body language, but Lilly took the cake tonight. I am horribly frustrated and disappointed. I'm pissed off at all the geniuses on here who "guaranteed" there would be a Game 4 and said Lou's decision to save Zambrano for Game 4 would look brilliant. I'm angry at the people on here who act like the Diamondbacks are better than they are and won't see we're not getting the job done. I'm angry at people who thought Kevin Hart was untouchable because of 11 innings, or who thought Soriano's September made up for what is still a bad contract, and I'm plenty pissed off at myself for getting so caught up in this nonsense that I actually had 2 cigarettes today after having quit for 2 years, after I TOLD MYSELF I wouldn't get this caught up in the Cubs ever again, that objectively and with a detached sense of rationality, that it was foolish to do so.

After all the talk and money devoted to Jeff, "a reliever who can get groundball outs" sounds pretty underwhelming. Another thing that bothers me is Jeff's G/F ratio isn't that great for the kind of groundball maestro people are hoping for. I believe Gallagher had a better one on his run through the FSL and it's not even close to middling prospects such as Aaron Laffey of the Indians. In another topic I remember there was a disagreement about whether Colvin would made Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list. Does #13 in the FSL League make it? Some of the guys on these lists are repeated names who've spent time at different levels, but still. So far this lists aren't changing my mind about the state of the minor leagues. Rather, I keep seeing some teams are really blessed and getting quality prospects with some of their middle round picks. I think it was the Carolina League list, the Devil Rays got some nice looking outfield prospects that were highly ranked, with their 6th and 10th round picks, where by that time we seem to be shopping for the utility men and relievers of the future.

8 strikeouts in 5 and 2/3 innings. I think a lot was made yesterday about how it took very good pitching to make our best hitters look foolish. Davis struck out Soriano and Ramirez twice each in 3 ABs, when was the last time anyone did that to Ramirez? Tip your cap to Davis and his overpowering stuff. --------------------------- In actuality, I'm terribly disappointed, more disappointed than I should be by now. I suppose it feels better when you think you're losing to a team that is simply far better than yours is. I don't feel that way about the Diamondbacks. They've got 90 wins, yes, but that's not 100 wins or any such thing. They've also been outscored by a decent clip for the year. Our team OPS, numbers with RISP, team ERA, and defensive numbers were better than the Diamondbacks. This is an eminently beatable team. I figure the impulse is to just crown them as a fantastic team, I don't see it and I don't buy it. We're helping to beat ourselves. This is a Diamondbacks team that has a pretty unimpressive meat-of-the-order with Eric Byrnes, Conor Jackson, etc. I haven't checked the numbers, does Eric Byrnes have the highest OPS at .813? Come on. This is a pitching staff that has Doug Davis and Livan Hernandez (in a rotten year) as their #2 and #3 starters. Add in that the Rockies look to beat the Phillies and this may be the easiest road to the World Series for the NL in years. I certainly thought the 2004 Cardinals and 2005 Astros were better teams than anyone there right now. This is a golden opportunity and the Cubs are blowing it horribly.

I don't remember if that was the post I meant to respond to. I think there was "tip the cap" in this topic. Instead of fawning all over how great Brandon Webb is I'd like to see people a little pissed off some of the ABs the players gave away. I felt at one point in the game DeRosa was the only guy turning in professional ABs, and it's not because DeRo is the best hitter. Some of those things I didn't even say, so you're making things up. The Livan Hernandez thing is because people tend to tip the cap to mediocre pitchers when they dominate the Cubs. I am tired of the tipping of caps to pitchers great and mediocre alike. I was being satirical. The fans are so quick to proclaim Brandon Webb nasty that they will call Livan filthy next. I did not mean literally that is what people were saying.

I think I have a right to be skeptical when people are talking up his sinker which wasn't particularly good last night. Derrek was one of the guys taking the offspeed stuff right down the middle. I'll buy his offspeed stuff was his strength, but I don't think he had his real bread and butter going.

I wasn't changing my story. Those are just situations within the second half. It still feels like you're trying to play a game of "gotcha" or something. When Webb is on he looks better than he did against the Cubs. I don't use the word "filthy" or "nasty" lightly.

You said there were no "LOLs." There were. So you're wrong. In any event this argument is stupid. You could call my statement ridiculous if unfortunately I didn't see people give props to the mediocre pitching great games. If reading is "fundamental," so is spelling. At least the other people are arguing legitimately. You're just playing this petulant little game of one-upsmanship.

I've noticed it a lot with RISP. Check out Lee with RISP 1st half vs. 2nd half. August in particular he struggled. I can admit when a pitcher beats the Cubs with good stuff. That day Jason Schmidt 1-hit the Cubs he had "filthy" stuff. I don't think Webb had it today. I think the Cubs helped him a lot.

I simply get exasperated at the "tip the cap" mentality and honestly feel that Webb did have his best stuff. Comments about his nasty sinker when I saw with my own eyes how more than usual he was up in the zone had me thinking some posters were being less than genuine commenting on his stuff. Finally, when too many hitters take meatballs right down the heart of the plate I think the problem is more than Webb. I also think people don't often bother to differentiate between a good pitcher who is untouchable, and a good pitcher on an off day against a team that fails to take advantage. When Webb's stuff is good we don't even have baserunners to strand. I actually remember days when people used to "tip their cap" in a non-satiric way to Victor Santos. "Santos just pitched the best game of his life," I actually remember that.

What proves I have bad judgement, or judgment? You're coming off like an opportunistic pile-on type concerning yourself with just picking and not being interested in the discussion. Maybe you need the eye doctor. Check out post: Thu Oct 04, 2007 7:06 am. Next time double check before you try and do the "show you up" thing although I'd prefer you didn't bother with that at all.