badnews

We're still talking about a .141 point OPS difference. The problem with all of these posts is that you'd just give the award to anyone defensively average with mediocre numbers. You get Angel Berroa in 2003 to come out looking better.

Rafael Palmeiro won the Gold Glove for 1b as a DH, why not.

I really dont think hill is all that special. Hes not as good as zito was at his peak and hes not quite as bad zito now. Guys with a big hook and slow 90mph fast ball can have success but are never great. He barely has a third pitch and he doesnt have the best baseball instincts. Not to mention if he went to the american league he would get shelled. Crawford on the other hand has drawn comparisons to a young Barry Bonds. Is a gold golve caliber outfielder from any position, has speed,developing power and on base skills. ANd he'll be 25 for most of the next season. He will have a far greater impact than hill ever had on this team. On base skills like Bonds? You've got to be kidding. You're just making things up. By the time Bonds was Crawford's age he was already taking a ton of walks. Bonds was also cutting down his strikeouts while Crawford is increasing them. Bonds hit more home runs at Crawford's age. Bonds basically did everything better except steal bases. Crawford has way more in common with Kenny Lofton than any of these other names, I think. Except Lofton walked more too. Barry Zito pitched in a friendly pitching park in the AL. You know, a park that has made guys like Kirk Saarloos, Lenny DiNardo, and Chad Gaudin look decent. Why is it people always complain about Hill's repetoire but he's got a good K/9, BAA and induces a lot of swings and misses? Why is Rich Hill underrated? - He pitched in the toughest pitcher's park in the NL and 2nd toughest in baseball this year, according to the park factors. - 6th in the NL in K/9, Maine beat him out at the last second when he struck out 14 in his last game. 8th in WHIP. When you talk about a guy in the top 10 of WHIP and K/9, aren't you getting toward ace material? - For all the talk of mental toughness, he pitched with no run support this year and didn't fall apart. - He showed encouraging signs of improving his G/F ratio after the ASB. - He basically had an ace-level OPS against, and look at the park he pitched in, around the same as Hamels, Penny, Haren, and Wang. His OPS against on the road was .659 - ace level. Enough of this BS about how Hill is kind of a fringey lefty just lucking out. You want to see fringey lefties lucking out? Go look at Noah Lowry and Chuck James. You'll see peripherals and indicators that will make your head explode a la Scanners.

Is anyone else tired of the absolutely rampant laziness in assuming just because a player is under 30 they'll improve? Why doesn't anyone crunch the stats on a Coco Crisp move from Cleveland to Boston? For that matter, how different was Crisp from Crawford back then? Why? Oh yes. He's under 30. I eagerly await the 35 home run seasons of guys like Shane Victorino as well.

I know this has already been debunked, but why on earth does no one factor Kaz Matsui, Kenji Johjima, and Iwamura into the translations? I can guess why - because it'll cause the numbers to go down and there goes the whole house of cards. Fukudome struck out more in Japan than every guy mentioned except Iwamura. Yet he's going to keep his average as well as Ichiro, Matsui, and Johjima? Come on. When Kei Igawa is a strikeout machine in Japan and Fukudome strikes out 23% of the time in Japan, what happens here? I give him a .800 OPS in the form of a .275 BA, .355 OBP, .445 SLG .. Cubs got a .794 OPS from right field this year.

I'm not sure I buy that. No one in 2007 who hit the ball on the ground as much as Crawford did had an Isolated Power above .182. We could instead analyze what will happen to Crawford if his strikeout rate keeps climbing like it has every year. The Rays' dome played more as a run-inflating park in 2006. It may supress runs but it doesn't supress home runs apparently. Crawford's rise in OPS on the road was because he hit for a higher average on the road, not more power. He struck out at about the same rate so it makes his BABIP there look even more unlikely. I don't think a move to Wrigley is going to inflate his batting average, you're supposed to want to get guys to hit the ball on the ground at Wrigley. So what benefit are we supposing? "He'll do better with the Cubs because we'll pay dearly for him and God loves the Cubs." If only. Why don't we take any package that is good enough to get Carl Crawford and offer it for a player that suits our needs better.

Crawford is overrated.

Yeah, let's pretend defense counts anywhere near as offense. That's why Carlos Lee and Adam Dunn ride the bench and Hiram Bocachica is an every day starter. Tulo's home/road numbers are the usual Coors Field joke. I remember the guy who played his position before him, Clint Barmes, was a shoe-in for ROY before he got hurt carrying groceries or whatever the lie was. In short, I have nothing but contempt for Coors inflated numbers, probably more than anyone on the planet. What was his OPS away from Coors? .719? Oh, but he played nice defense, so he got "screwed." Yeah. Like someone else said - he wouldn't even be the conversation if it weren't for Coors. Funny, before this year defense was rarely mentioned in the ROY argument. Nobody said one word, not one word, when Ryan "The Butcher" Howard won ROY over Jeff "1,000,000,000 Assists" Francoeur. Howard also played in a better park. Now I can only hope Matt ".300 OPS difference home/road" Holliday gets "screwed" out of the MVP.

I disagree with that. How is it a bargain if Silva costs 4/44? It doesn't even back up what it says. "He stands out a little more." Well heck, I'm convinced. What annoys me is that people act like Silva has a G/F ratio of 2.50 or something, like he's this awesome machine that just churns out groundballs. Uh uh.

Give me a break already. Why do so many guys on the team have ridiculous home/road splits then? The Amazing Garrett Atkins, Who Everyone Loves Home - .936 OPS Away - .773 Hawpe Home - 1.017 Away - .831 Undeserving MVP Home - 1.157 Away - .860 Then there's Matsui. Tulo Home - .960 Away - .719 Torrealba Home - .777 Away - .618 Anyway see Jamey Carroll's splits in 2006? Colorado, second in the majors in home OPS at .853, just beind NY's .854. Colorado, 18th in away OPS at .730. This is going to be like signing Jeromy Burnitz, except for three years.

Winn is not a good defender in center.

Why is there no market for Jacque Jones? GMJ got a very lucrative contract and look at his numbers. What did Vernon Wells slug this year? What did Beltran in 2005? Rowand in 2005? How come Jones is the only guy who can't have an off year? He's still proven he can play good defense in center field and he averages 22 home runs a full season. There's an ugly business going around here now where every mediocre player gets compared to Mark DeRosa, and this Infante comparison is simply out of left field. When was Infante as highly regarded as Barrett? Michael Barrett was Baseball America's #6 prospect in 1999. Infante showed up at #95 behind Ramon Vazquez in 2002. Are we grasping at straws here yet? You can find oddball justifications for picking up just about anyone. I think Tony Armas Jr. is ready to have that breakout season.

Patterson is shabby, and PECOTA saying otherwise doesn't mean anything to me. PECOTA said 2007 would be Zambrano's last year going over 200 innings. PECOTA said Matt Murton would outproduce Carlos Lee this year. PECOTA has predicted a Carlos Guillen collapse every year since he came to Detroit. What did PECOTA say about Carlos Quentin? They pretty much overrate anyone under the age of 26. PECOTA probably projected Jeremy Reed would hit .400 and Alex Escobar would put up A-Rod numbers back in the day. I remember when PECOTA used to project Jose Lopez as Miguel Tejada. If PECOTA loves Eric Patterson that much, they have to have a guy like Howie Kendrick batting .675 next season.

Remember when the Cubs decided they had to have Freddy Bynum based on a hot spring training? Hiyo!

Fielding Independent Pitching? Silva: 2004 - 4.44 2005 - 4.17 2006 - 5.81 2007 - 4.35 Zambrano: 2004 - 3.41 2005 - 3.62 2006 - 4.15 2007 - 4.55 That's not the same. He's not enough of a groundball pitcher to excite me for that money. 1.58, 1.55, 1.29, 1.57. Sean Marshall posted 1.41 and 1.55 this year and we can't wait to toss him out of the rotation. You need more tricks than an above-average G/F ratio, Matt Morris's G/F ratio was 1.57. Kip Wells's was 1.62. Chad Gaudin's was 1.79.

It's strange to envision a Yankees lineup in which no one has more than 30 home runs. Once you get past Posada and A-Rod for the 2007 team, the high qualifying OPS+ on the team is Hideki Matsui. I said their lineup would be fine, but if Matsui is your biggest threat I think it's a stretch to call it a terrifying lineup.

Awful? I wouldn't characterize those numbers as awful at all if they're coming from a center fielder and he's making the MLB minimum. I'm just curious, at this point, what do think the Cubs realistically have to look forward to as far as a tailor-made leadoff hitter? I don't think we're getting Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez, or Ichiro numbers. Willits put up a .391 OBP and had 27 steals with 8 caught. A .391 OBP with some threat of stealing a base, and running the bases well? I'd take that for the leadoff spot. Davis' numbers were worse, but looking at what he did with the Giants, a .363 OBP with 17 steals in 51 games, over the course of a year that would look fine in the Cubs' leadoff spot. I think OBP is the most important part of a leadoff man's job, and I agree a .675 OPS guy is not good anywhere even if he has a high OBP, and I probably like speed in the leadoff spot more than the average person on here. So if a guy can play a position of defensive value (like center) and put up a .350+ OBP and an OPS of, heck, at this point, even .720, while stealing 20 bases or so at a reasonable percentage, AND be cheap salary-wise, I'd take that because it's been pretty much crap since Lofton. I think a lot of people would be happy to get a Reggie Willits 2007 season out of Fuld, and I don't see how that is impossible.

The Yankees would look like fools if they took A-Rod back after all of that tough guy talk and whining about Texas's money. What about all that "He doesn't appreciate the privilege of being a Yankee" (guffaw) talk? And don't kid yourself - the Yankees would still be winning through money. They spend more signing foreign free agent prospects than anyone else, and they sure as heck spend WAY more than any other team in the draft - even if they're going young, it's still all about the money. The Yankees aren't getting 1st round talent in the late rounds because they're smarter than everyone else - they're doing it because they have money and they're the 800 pound gorilla that has enough clout to spit in Bud Selig's eye and get away with it. A-Rod was the anchor of the Yankees' lineup. That lineup doesn't look deadly without A-Rod. Abreu is declining, Giambi and Damon, can you count on them for anything? Betemit didn't hit well with the Yankees and needs to be the better part of a platoon, but he's doesn't scare anyone, Melky took a huge step backwards, it's iffy if Posada can put up another .970 OPS... it's a nice enough lineup but replacing A-Rod with Betemit and not improving anywhere else doesn't make it look particularly terrifying.

I've never thought anything about Tony Gwynn Jr., but the way a lot of others talk about him, and the crazy trade rumors he's mentioned in... wow. Reggie Willits was "much" better than Fuld in the minors? Fuld's career minor league line - .296 / .377 / .417 for a .794 OPS, 141 strikeouts in 1184 ABs Willits' career minor league line - .301 / .397 / .397 for a .794 OPS, 292 strikeouts in 1596 ABs Let's keep in mind Willits also got to play in the Cal League and spent far more time in a hitter-friendly environment at Triple A than Fuld did. Fuld also had to play in the dead-ball Midwest League. Willits has stolen more bases. Okay, that accounts for "better." But Willits has shown less power than Fuld, and strikes out more, which is important when we're talking about these slap-hitter guys. And I'm somewhat encouraged by the fact that since 2006, Fuld has stolen 34 bases and been caught 6 times. That's some baserunning speed. So I don't know about "much" better. Rajai Davis's major league numbers so far would, if he were a Cub, be the best leadoff numbers the Cubs would've had.

I think people are crapping a little too much on Sam Fuld. The same things people said about Fuld people have said about Reggie Willits and Rajai Davis. Those two are better basestealers, but still, no one thought those two would look like fine leadoff men in the majors. If you compare their numbers at the plate (i.e. not the steals) Fuld looks quite similar to Willits and Davis, in fact, he strikes out less than in the minors. Willits was also not a guy who was exactly a spring chicken for his level, like Fuld. Also, why is Tony Gwynn Jr. considered a "real prospect" but Sam Fuld is considered dung? Tony Gwynn Jr. looks like the next Willie Harris or something. I'm just puzzled by the differing perceptions. Hopefully someone can clear this up.

Betemit and Phillips, come on. Every team out there should try and rob the Yankees blind like what happened to the Red Sox when they needed a replacement for Damon. Remember, the Mariners asked for Jonathan Papelbon for Jeremy Reed (who looked like a failure even then)? Why should any team be in a hurry to help the Yankees? Kenny Williams should ask for Tyler Clippard and Melky Cabrera for Joe Crede, I doubt the Yankees will get Miguel Cabrera or Miguel Tejada. The Cards would probably do well to trade Rolen at this point.

They didn't need Lidge to move Brett Myers back. That's a fallacy in thinking. It's because they're stupid. Lidge's ERA+ was worse than Michael Wuertz's. He had 19 saves and blew 8 saves which looks terrible. His opponent OPS was worse than Michael Wuertz's, and it's defintely on the high side for an "elite" closer.

Who is really available and who the Hot Stove says is available or who is available for a overwhelming trade is different. A lot of guys strike out less and have a better K/BB ratio. So yes, Pie is a bigger risk that those young players who don't have that problem or have it to a lesser degree.

This topic is insane. I can't believe anyone on this site seriously thinks Kaz Matsui is a good idea. Nilodnayr is right - Matsui is a butcher at shortstop. And even his numbers vs. righties are inflated by Coors significantly. Why are we still even discussing this? HE'S. NO. GOOD. AT. ALL. A Ryan Theriot/Matsui platoon? Are you kidding? Aren't platoons supposed to be productive? Why have two guys platoon at shortstop to produce a .690 OPS when one of them can't even play shortstop? His career OPS+ is 82. 82! Again, grabbing garbage Japanese players to try and get Fukudome here is nonsensical. Nobody knows if Fukudome is even going to be worth his contract, let alone alone worth a dead weight player like Matsui. Iwase is leaning towards staying in Japan. Kuroda has said he would prefer to play on the west coast/somewhere where the weather is warm. So be it. Matsui is crap anyway you try and figure it. There is no justification for bringing crap on board. There is no justification for giving crap a multiyear deal. I agree with the Dr. Seuss guy. I do not want him on a boat. I do not want him on a train. I do not want him on a plane. I do not want him on this team.

Agreed. I'm not a huge Murton fan but I think over the course of a full season he can put up a .780 OPS and play league average right field defense. Since he has little trade value indeed I think he's worth more to us on the field than in trade.