wastra

Edwin encarnacion is NOT going to be a perennial all-star. He'll be good, but not all-star quality. I'd pencil him in for .285, 20-30 homers, .340 OBP.

Stability is great...if you have the right people in place. It makes no sense to want consistency and stability if the people you're keeping around aren't good. Remember: you can be consistently bad just as easy (or easier) you can be as consistently good. So the key (speaking of managers) is to find someone who has the right approach, right personality, and can deliver the right message, and stick with them. How many people think that person is dusty in Chicago? I'll admit he's got strengths, but is he really the guy we want to stick with for 5-10 years? Dusty can motivate guys (though this year's team motivation is in question). He also is well-liked by his guys. But he has some weaknesses as well: -He's too constrained "by the book." Lefty-righty mathups only work when the lefty or righty you're subbing is a better lefty than the other player is a righty (or vice versa). -He's attached to "his guys." This isn't always bad, if his guys were proven producers. But he gets attached to his guys, and not only does he play them, he tries to make them the focus of the offense. So it's not jsut that he insists on playing perez over Cedeno- I can at least accept that there is SOME logic to that. But hitting him leadoff?!? There's no logic in that at all other than Neifi being "his guy" who baker wants to either showcase or reward for some off-field reason. On-field, it's just bad baseball. -He has a bad coaching staff, and like 'his guys" on the field, he sticks with them too long. Remember "wavin' wendell?" It's clear that somehting with our hitting coaches and even Rothschild isn't gelling. -He's absolutely inept with the media. Totally inept. He contradicts himself from one minute to the next. He'll openly proclaim that Pitcher X can't get lefties out, and batter Y can't get on base, then THAT VERY DAY he'll bring in pitcher X to face 2 or 3 straight lefties and bat player Y leadoff. He'll talk about player Z needing to get at bats, then start someone else for them that day. He'll say absurd things about race and media treatment. -He won't allow anyone in the organization to accept blame for anything. It's always someone else's fault, or beyond their control. He fosters an "enabling" culture in which people make mistakes, but don't have to accept responsibility for them, so the motivation to correct those mistakes is absent. hence, when they make the same mistakes 3 days later, there's little repercussion. -He's far too resistant to change. It's as if by making changes, he's admitting he was wrong. So he sticks with losing formulae looong past the point of normalcy. he'll stick with an unproductive lineup for a month. He'll use a pitcher in the wrong situation over and over and over until everyone from sportscenter anchors to Chicago fans start making fun of it. THEN he finally changes, or the player has 3 good days and he talks to the media in a near "I-told-you-so" tone, and we start the whole process again after that 3-day hot streak ends and the player stinks again. Now it's Hendry's job to decide if those weaknesses are outweighed by his strengths. Is the motivation and likeability factor more important or more effective than the above weaknesses are detrimental to winning? Is his "all-or-nothing" offensive strategy the right strategy for sustained success? (actually, with Hendry's tools-based method of player evaluation, it probably is in Jim's eyes.) And, if given the RIGHT players, will Dusty be able to win a world series? If so, can the Cubs realistically deliver those players to him? All these things are legit questions, and the answers are not cut-and-dry. We all have opinions of them.

WIth or without Dusty, this team is not in contention. No bullpen. No Offense in the outfield. None of that changes without Dusty. But Dusty has NOT maximized the talent we've had. So when you address moves for Hendry to make (he's not firing himself), you look at the different parts ofh te team that need upgrades. Corner outfield. Bullpen. Back of the rotation. Bench. Coaching staff. All need changes. Neifi Perez is nto the reason we're basically done. Neither is Macias. Neither is Baker. Neither is Patterson or Burnitz. But you add them all in together, and we're just not that good of a team. So Hendry has to, IMO, start addressing these needs this offseason. Everything from on-field players to bat-boys should be looked at for improvement. And if hendry turns in two pathetic offseasons in a row, given that he's not NEARLY as hampered by salary issues this offseason as last, HE'LL be on the hot seat too, IMO.

I think you have to try to get Nomar back. Last year was the year to find a shortstop replacement, not this one. I say $4-5MM base salary with incentives to get him to $7-8 for one year, maybe with a 1-year option. I dont' know about geting Giles. Again, I hate to think we'd be throwing money at another Moises Alou- a guy who would've been unreal for us...4 years earlier. He'd look good in 2006, but in 2007 and 2008 does he become another Sosa/Alou/Maddux etc where his production seriously lags his pay? But, obviously, we need to find a real bat- a big Bat, actually two of them. And there are only so many bats available this offseason. It's for that reason I want Nomar back. Assuming he can stay healthy (might be a BIG assumption), at worst he's probably a .290-.305 hitter with an .800+ OPS. At best, he's a .320 hitter with 15-25 homers or more. IF we can land two studs to play the corner outfield, I would like to see Cedeno at short. But I have a feeling we'll be having only one addition to the offense- RF. the rest will be a return of our current lineup. In that situation, you have to try to find offense in non-offensive positions. Either way, cedeno is on this team. I can't imagine Dusty wouldn't give Nomar lots of rest, and Walker needs rest againstl eftieso n occassion as well. ronny could get lots of action. And can he play any third? Aramis is not exactly a bastion of health. I'd rather see Cedeno getting starts at thrid on occassion than Fontenot -at this point- if he can handle it defensively. Lawton Walker Lee Giles Ramirez Nomar Barrett Patterson Bench: Murton Cedeno Fontenot Blanco New Outfielder (or greenburg) Hairston

Burnitz might be playing poorly lately but his BA is roughly equal to Corey's OBP. Burnitz has been average, which was what he was expected to be this year.... Corey has been really awful. Burnitz is not average. Average ML Ofer with 100+ at bats: Average OFer Burnitz OBP .353 .324 SLG .465 .443 OPS .818 .767 he's below average.

We haven't scored 7 runs in a game since July 24th, and it took a grand slam in the 10th to get there. Stick a fork in this team.

I think it's safe to say that Dusty's one strong point as a manager- motivation- is no longe a strong point. Sure am glad we've got him under cotnract for next year. :?

I think that next year, they have to allow the younger players to be the backups- not he 24th and 25th men on the roster, but the primary backups with the opportunity to win starting jobs. I know Dusty wouldn't go for it, so I think maybe a change there is in order as well. :wink: Seriously though, Ramirez and Lee are back, along with Barrett. I'd like to see Barrett shopped- I love his offense, but his defense gives me seizures. I think he'll return a little value as well. I'm okay going with a defensive-minded catcher IF they improve the rest fo the offense. Patterson returns, but he should be in spring competition with Pie, and they should explore free agents such as Damon, who would make Lawton expendable. thus, Corey is not guaranteed a spot in the lineup. Burnitz needs to walk. Love his attitude and hustle, but he's just about exactly what we all claimed he'd be- mediocre offensively. Nomar gets a one-year, incentive laden deal with Cedeno behind him. I like Ronny, but if we can get Nomar for $5MM + incentives, you gotta give it a shot. Walker? Tough call. I'd like to see him back, but I've never felt that Hendry or Baker were sold on him. they've always used him extensively, but they've never really seemed committed to him in any meaningful way. But the lack of other 2Bs on the market make his return a probability. I really think it's a bad idea to trade Wood. His value has never been lower sicne his rookie season, IMO, including the TJ period. there's a time when the risk-reward curve for keeping him outweighs the risk-reward curve of trading him. I think that time is now. But if he starts the season healthy, and there is legit interest, you have to keep you ears open next year. The bullpen cannot be entrusted to the same people as this yaar without having at least one proven guy on each side plus the closer. It was disasterous this year, let's not repeat the msitake of "hoping" 3-4 of our younger but unrefined arms step up and take the setup role. So that leaves us Right and Left field to make a couple free agent splashes, but unfortunately also limits the playing time of Murton. Also, we'll have rotation and bullpen spots open. I wouldn't entrust the rotation spots to Williams or Hill yet either iunless Wood is truly expected to return (I think they know more about his health problems than they're saying). 1B Lee/Walker/ FA backup OF? 2B Walker/Fontenot 3B Ramirez/Fontenot/Cedeno SS Nomar/Cedeno that's the returning core, then, the infield. LF ???/Murton CF Damon/Patterson/Pie (should be in AAA next season, IMO) RF ???/Murton C ???/Blanco SP Prior SP Zambrano SP Maddux ( :cry: darn vesting option!) SP Wood SP ??? (Hill/Williams is wood is healthy, otherwise, a FA will be needed) BP Dempster BP ??? BP ??? BP JVB/Mitre/Wuertz/Novoa BP Williamson? (they'll prob keep him) BP Ohman So that's at least 6 new players via Free Agency and one via trade (for Barrett)...that's going to be tough in this market. 2 Bullpen arms, one starter (maybe), 2 corner outfielders, a catcher, and a backup OF/1B- and that assumes we get a Johnny Damon type already (which might lead to a patterson trade, maybe not...again, see relative risk of trading low vs. keeping). This assumes Hendry actually uses his brain and doesn't sign a bunch of todd Hollandsworths and Jeromy Burnitzes and actually gets some solid players. And it handcuffs Baker to an extent because it leaves him ONLY younger guys to work into the lineup. I think we can all be fairly sure that even if healthy to start the year, Ramirez and Nomar will need rather frequent rests.

I don't mind sending Cedeno down. At least this way, he'll get 3 weeks of consistent at bats before the Sept 1st callups. My problem is really with what happens after the roster expansion. Who thinks Murton, Pie, and Cedeno play regularly (i.e. 3 starts+ per week) after september 1st? I don't see it. I think that Nomar continues to get 90% of the starts because they want to see if he's worth a 1-year deal next year. And i think Hollandsworth, Burnitz, Perez, and Macias eat the rest of the starts because Baker will want them to be able to show they're valuable to another team next season.

.500 from THIS payroll? If I were GM, I'd clean house ASAP. Manager, about half the roster (or more), coaches, you name it. And that's just to try to save my OWN job.

I wouldn't mind having Perez on the team IF (and only if) he was the 25th man, a true utility defensive replacement. The problem is that our manager insists on starting everyone with more than 2 years' experience on the team about every 7th game or more. That means that our 25th man, despite matching up well to other teams' is a worse detriment to those players who might be their team's 25th man who never plays. As was said, Macias has been our #1 or #2 pinch hitter most of the year. Bad use of him. Neifi plays almsot every day, whether as a puinch hiter, or second base or first base- Baker has used every single excuse all year long to get him in the lineup. When Walker went down, the very first game had who at Second Base? Not Hairston, our backup, but Neifi. So it's not that neither deserves to be on a roster...for all his weaknesses, macias at least provides a warm body who will make contact. There's a use for that at some level, just not the level Baker uses him. Let me be hoenst- I'm not claiming that playign bench players more often than usual is an awful idea, but it requries a team to have a pretty damn good bench or it's actually HURTING the team. Our bench is not pretty damn good. Perez and Macias only have bench value if they're rarely used- and only used in the way that most benefits the Cubs. that's now HOW they're used. They're used almost as platoon players, not scrubs. THAT'S a bad idea. Again, I liked the idea of having Hollandsworth on the team, but that was when thought he'd be a backup, used as most managers would use him...pinch hitting, mainly. instead, contrary to how umpteen previous managers thought he was best suited, Baker played him as the PRIMARY left fielder. So, again, it's not that either is on a roster, it's that they're on OUR roster, where we know they'll be used in amanner not best suited to take advantage of their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. I don't blame Perez, Macias, Hollandsworth, et al. Perez and Macias have done exactly what their career numbers say they should do. Hollandsworth has proven yet again that he's a terrbile everyday left fielder...just as he's always shown when placed in that role. It's how they're used that's maddening. Finally, if you're a GM, and you know your manager's preferred strategy of using bench players, why put two 25th-type men on the roster? Where's the pressure from on high to get guys like Murton, Cedeno, et al consistent at bats? So Hendry shoulders some of this blame as well.

It's hard to really think they are tryign to win every single game when the manager sits two starters when we're already offensively short-handed. If Burnitz needed a rest, they should have not have Macias in center as well. If Walker needed a rest, it shouldn't ahve been the same day Burnitz was out. That's just forfeiting a game when we can't afford to lose any more games at all.

I think it's ap erfect example of mis-management. Nto that Macias plays dcenter, or that Hollandsworth gets a start, or that even Neifi gets a start at second. It's that, again, Baker did it all in the same day. Again, he's basically saying that barring a miracle, he's forfeiting that game. That's NOT the way to manage a team when your postseason hopes are fading and every game should be played like game 7 of the world series.

I predicted a few games over .500 before the year began. the fact that they're under .500 now means they're underachieving, in my eyes. But let's face it- this team would've needed a miracle to make the playoffs anyway. So they're both underachieving, and not all that talented.

Lloyd McClendon.

Another example of the "enabling" culture Dusty fosters. It's his biggest strength and bigest weakness as a manager. It's a strength because players always feel he's on their side, so they like him for it. It's a weakness because it shifts blame and responsibility off those who should FEEL responsible for poor play, and hence removes a motivating factor for them to improve. It's like when we went 2 or 3 months as one of the least patient teams in the NL, and Baker kept saying "It's just bad luck. We're not trying to take walks, we're trying to get hits. I want them to be aggressive." Instead, he should have been saying "We've got to learn to be more patient." It excused their poor plate discipline. It wasn't until a players' only meeting right before the break that they started TRYING to take walks.

They figure he'd be good at that role since he wouldn't have to squat to get into position.

Baseball is more about clubhouse leadership. Who's getting on players who don't follow the game plan? Who's pulling people aside when guys hack at every first pitch despite the hitting coach sayign they needed to be patient with a particular pitcher? Who's taking the youngsters aside and showing them the ropes? Who's calling players-only meetings (there should have been about 20 this year)? Who's taking emotional players and telling them to get under control? Those type of things are very important to a team. Typically, it's a veteran who is highly respected both as a player and leader, and it's usually a position player. Maddux best fits the bill in terms of respect, but he's a very quiet unassuming guy, so he's probably not it. Lee could be the guy, and I think that Walker TRIES to be the guy. But I don't seen anyone on the team really taking the reins as clubhouse leader as guys like Stairs, Karros, et al have done in the past.

Again, we've got the double whammy going on here, too. -We've had a sub-par roster for 2-3 years (for a team meant to contend.) There hasn't been a single season in the past few where we came into a year without glaring question marks at multiple spots. Hendry can't keep getting passes when he puts together a patchwork bullpen EVERY YEAR and it fails, and then always has a one-dimensional team that swings at everything on the other side. -We've poorly used the tools we HAVE had. We overused established pitchers, over-relied on unproven (not even proven at the minor league level) relievers and reclamation projects in the pen, underutilized talented younger position players, and routinely lacked key components to score runs. Then, we give them an "enabling" manager who refuses to hold players publicly accountable so he doesn't hurt their feelings, so players rarely step up and say "Hey, I'm not pulling my weight, I promise to do better."

It's over this year, folks. I hate to say it, but we're playing for pride from here on out. We'd have to catch, what 5 teams at least? There should only be 4 players guaranteed a spot on the 25-man roster next year: Lee, Ramirez, Prio, and Zambrano. Everyone else should be available for demotions, waivers, releases, trades, etc. That includes coaches.

DP sorry

I'm pretty much done with this team. It's not that I won't follow their games or anything, but they've just done nothing all year to show they have the talent to compete for the post season, and I'm getting tired of stressing out over them.

Actually, back to the original question of the thread- I think Dusty has to take some flak for the "culture" of the team that I believe causes them to play unfocused baseball. He's instilled a culture of no-accountability on the team. when they fail down the stretch, he's pointing at TV announcers instead of the guys who keep making baserunning errors. When they struggle early, he's b*tching about fans booing instead of the guy who served up a 2-run homer in the bottom of the 9th. Instead of talking about our starting leadoff hitters who can't get on base, he talks about our backup leadoff hitter who wants to get a shot to play. Instead of responding to the questions about our shortstop not taking walks, he points to the three or four games his timely hits have helped us win. Instead of addressing the fact that our starting left fielder has hit .240 for the bulk of the season, he talked about how our backup didn't have experience, and made excuses about "slumps" and "starts". Instead of taking actions to correct these problems (like benching guys or changing up the order...which would be an admonishment of those who aren't producing), he sticks with a known bad plan says he has no other options and talks about injuries and a long season and how we shouldn't focus on one loss. Halfway through the first two weeks of the year, he's already starting 3 or 4 backups in one game- insinuating to fans and players that he doesn't expect to win that game, and his remarks to teh press are that "it's a long season, and I want the starters rested for the end" which implies winning the games early doesn't matter...which in and of itself de-values individual wins for the team. Now, with 6 weeks left, we suddenly find there aren't enough games left to make up the ground we're behind. IMHO- All of this adds up to the fact that I believe that many of our players don't feel personally responsible for individual games we lose. there's always another reason- not their approach, or their decisions, but fans, injuries, day games, heat- whatever. They don't really feel that they HAVE to make changes because they don't feel that it's their fault that they're failing. It's just bad breaks and other people's fault or it's not that important because the season is so long. (I'm not saying our players are stupid or selfish, just that I don't feel like they have taken ownership of their actions for the past 2-3 years).

There will always be times when a player beats a pitcher to the bag. But there should never EVER be a time the pitcher doesn't even make an attempt.

I really don't have too much of a problem here. I (and I think most people here) didn't even expect Nomar to be back at all this year, so the fact that he'll only play 2 of the first 3 games back shouldn't be looked at negatively, IMO. I don't like Baker- I think he's a terrible manager who instills a 'culture of no-accountability' on the team- but this is probably the smart move here, and I giveh im credit for it. The LAST thing you want is Nomar coming back and then hurting himself again.