Mephistopheles
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Everything posted by Mephistopheles
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thats not important. -
why not oba? and/or making slight adjustments for babip
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New Proposal
Mephistopheles replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
VMart's contract situation: 2009: $5.7 million, 2010: $7 million club option w/$250,000 buyout, 2011: Free Agent -
New Proposal
Mephistopheles replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Why not flip Marmol for Victor Martinez and Geovany Soto for Jake Peavy. -
No one cares about ERA for starting pitchers, much less relief pitchers, of the course of a full season...so no one certainly cares about ERA for a relief pitcher sliced up into many useless splits of pure randomness. No one ought to care about his BAA either...and really WHIP isn't all that stable either.
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colorado would fit in well with the mwc and baylor would fit in well with the cusa really tulsa, houston, rice, utep, baylor, smu, tcu and tulane should set up their own conference. theyd be pretty damn good mid major in football and an elite baseball conference and for the most part all decent academic schools save utep, and i guess tulsa. uh is aright i guess.
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either way it doesnt matter. hes shown to be a high FB pitcher. keep in mind league flyball rates are around 36 percent. greggs been at 42 percent for his career.
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it doesn't. with the exception of 2007, his gb rate has been within about a stdev of the binomial expectation each season. as for 2007? i dont know. that was a huge outlier...
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i think iowa state would be more willing to move because itll cut down on their minor sports traveling expenses, a bit. (not a lot though) maybe you could kick baylor out
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that's called being a reliever.
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the yankees bribed elias. they want sabathia and their newfound love of spending luxuriously in the draft.
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and bob howry gave up 4 hr in 71 ip away from wrigley in 06 and 07. i can play this game all night long. you're convienately making sure that gregg's outlier season is included. ditto for me. And Gregg gave up 4 HR away from Pro Player in 2007 alone. the fact is that kevin gregg, with the exception of 2008, has been very average when it comes to HR prevention. just because he was fine in 2008 it certainly doesnt mean he will be fine in 2009. the 2005-07 HR have more predicative value than his 2008 results or even 2007-08 results alone.
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I don't think Ceda is any better than those guys as a prospect, but he still has some value. I do think that we can get a similar quality reliever for the same amount of cash as we will give him in arby....and still keep Ceda. Relievers who can put RAs in the low to mid 4.00s grow on trees.
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The last two years, the difference between Wuertz and Gregg is like 3 walks over 70 IP. And Gregg has no platoon split and doesn't give up HR no matter where he pitches. Two things: 1.) Relievers aren't going to have big home away splits by virtue of only throwing 30 or so innings at home or away in a given season. It's not enough innings to get a true grasp on it. 2.) I should note that from 2005-07 Bob Howry gave up 20 home runs. From 2005-07 Kevin Gregg gave up 25 home runs. Bob Howry also pitched more innings in that time frame and pitched in a park more prone to home runs. Kevin Gregg's been average when it comes to giving up long balls. He will be below average now that he's not in Yosemite.
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Alright I probably should not have Marmol's class. You're right, hardly anyone becomes that good...but I meant more or less comparable overall to Marmol in general. Dominant over-powering high strikeout reliever. I meant more or less the stuff, style more so than the actual production Marmol has given the last two years. Let's be honest, even Marmol has very little chance sustaining that run. Anyways my gripes about moving Ceda in this deal aren't so much that I think Ceda's great or anything. I really believe that if you're going to acquire relievers for anything of value, you might as well get a great one. If there ever was a high quality closer prospect, Ceda is one. His upside is very high, and at the very least his stuff alone ought to give him Kevin Gregg upside in the near future. I don't understand why we're trading him for a reliever we can find in the bargain bin at Wal-Mart.
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oh and for you RA kids. Gregg was incredibly lucky last year when he got yanked. He should have had about 3.5 more runs scored than who did. That gives him a legit 4.40 or so RA. To compare: Howry has been WAY under that four of the last five years.
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True. He's also not bad. Neither was Howry. Besides we could actually use Michael Wuertz and have a Kevin Gregg without trading Jose Ceda who has a chance to be a Carlos Marmol. And we could still not need to replace Wood if that was the idea. Howry gave up enough home runs + extra base hits in 2008 to qualify as bad. I'd say that in 2006 & 07, Howry was actually good. That said... Howry was bad. The question isn't whether or not they were bad, it's more or less if they will be good or bad. Bob Howrys much more likely to be a quality reliever next year. Kevin Gregg is a pitcher who gives up more flyballs than groundballs who walks a batter every other inning who pitched in a ballpark that is very forgiving to flyball pitchers. Now he doesn't. Bob Howry may give up a few home runs, but at least he won't walk 40 guys as a frickin relief pitcher. Lou Piniella is going to hate this guy so much he's going to be actually wishing Gregg had Wuertz's control.
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I love you Tyrant but ERA+ is pretty useless for starters...much less relievers.
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True. He's also not bad. Neither was Howry. Besides we could actually use Michael Wuertz and have a Kevin Gregg without trading Jose Ceda who has a chance to be a Carlos Marmol. And we could still not need to replace Wood if that was the idea.
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he's not good.
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Rumor: Supposedly Arkansas is wanting out of the SEC and wants to move into the Big XII. This makes a lot of sense given their ties to the SWC and the fact that the SWC is more or less the Big XII south. Supposedly there is interest from Missouri moving into the Big Ten? I Don't know if that is true or speculation. Iowa State's defection would be most likely (to the Big Ten). Supposedly South Florida and Florida State would be the SEC's top choices for replacements. I dont this ever happens, the rest beyond Arkansas seems to be speculation
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i disagree but as long as youd rather lose with wood than win with ajp then we'll agree to disagree. otherwise youre done.
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he deserves to win a ring somewhere. if its with the cardinals or yankees. i am content with that. i honestly see him going home. i think he will get a chance return to starting there too if he wants
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i dont have a problem trading ceda for gregg, i dont think its the best move jims done, nor do i think its the worst. i do think that there was a way to sign wood in a way that works well for both parties.
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25 million* and countless blown saves.
