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Mephistopheles

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Everything posted by Mephistopheles

  1. Mephistopheles
    I trust that you're capable of being optimistic, yet still appreciate how absolutely insane it would be to rely on, or plan around, Prior pitching even one single fastball for the Cubs next year. people said i was insane when i tabbed tim redding as a fantasy sleeper this year. 3.73 era
  2. Mephistopheles
    dunn >>>
  3. Mephistopheles
    this sucks.
  4. Mephistopheles
    Prior will be the number five guy next year guys. I am relatively optimistic. And you guys know how pessimistic i am.
  5. Mephistopheles
    It's small but the Brewers have a better chance of gaining ground on us in those 2 games than they do losing ground. It's not statistically insignificant. okay there's the same chance that the cubs gain ground on the brewers that they gain ground on us.
  6. Mephistopheles
    i guess it didnt occur to you that in order to get ahead of us the Brewers would have to win two games, which the odds of happening are <.52*.52 which is about 25%. Ive never understood looking at the L column. It's stupid.
  7. Mephistopheles
    GUYS WE HAVE MARK PRIOR NEXT SEASON TOO
  8. Mephistopheles
    Don't play that stupid BS with me, that might work with others but not me. i was joking. all he would need to do is post an era under 4.50 and this would be fine making marshall expendable.
  9. Mephistopheles
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=597 And here's a video of him swinging. Looks a lot like BJ Upton action. Probably not batspeed though
  10. Mephistopheles
    This is from my data in 2006 (not translated eqa) 1. .335 Osmani Urrutia 2. .332 Joan Pedroso 3. .324 Frederich Cepeda 4. .319 Eriel Sanchez 5. .317 Yohandry Urgelles 6. .315 Yulieski Gourriel 7. .313 Rolando Meriño 8. .310 Alexander Mayeta 9. .305 Ariel Pestano 10. .303 Luis Gonzalez 11. .302 Yoandi Garlobo 12. .301 Danel Castro 13. .300 Yosvani Peraza 14. .300 Andy Zamora 15. .300 Eduardo Paret 16. .296 Yoenis Cespedes 17. .296 Alexei Ramirez 18. .295 Ariel Benavides 19. .295 Yorelvis Charles 20. .294 Amaury Casañas 21. .293 Loidel Chapelli 22. .293 Antonio Scull 23. .293 Ariel Borrero 24. .291 Giorvis Duvergel 25. .290 Alexis Laborde
  11. Mephistopheles
    He was leading the Cuban League in HRs. He's no Gourriel but he's a solid prospect, if you can call him that (he is 26). He's a SS/CF but played 2B at the WBC because of Paret. Honestly, he might be an option at shortstop or centerfield in a year or so. This is a guy we NEED to look at.
  12. Mephistopheles
    Wainwright has a DERA of +3.95, same as Marshall. Look in the drop in numbers between Wainwright as a starter and as a reliever. H/9 +2.4 HR/9 same BB/9 +.6 K/9 -2.3 So that would mean Marmol's K/9 would be 10.1? That would place him fifth all time behind Randy Johnson, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Pedro Martinez.
  13. Mephistopheles
    It most certainly was in 2002. Pretty much the exact same situation
  14. Mephistopheles
    hed be fine. hes from that latin american sun. and just abut everyone is max effort who throws 90+. Even guys who dont look it really are max efforting it. Only rare mark prior cases or the opposite.
  15. Mephistopheles
    Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April. Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage. WARP for pitchers is leverage adjusted. Well sorta. It's a [expletive] way but it is. BP really has a disaster on their hands with WARP for pitchers. Its too bad theyre too dumb to know it oh and in addition, Marmol's leverage isnt all that high for a reliever. It really isnt. Thats Lous fault more than anything. I'm curious, why do you say that? Because he hasn't been used in tough spots in the 9th or 8th innings muched. He's been there in the 8th recently but not much earlier. His LI is 1.25 from fangraphs and 1.15 from BP, not very high http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=n&type=0&season=2007
  16. Mephistopheles
    I don't necessarily disagree, but why? And do the reasons for that apply to Marmol? Because having two dominant pitches outwieghs having 3 lackluster pitches? To help the Cubs by making this transition he'd need to be close to a 100 ERA+ pitcher. If his ERAs under 4.50 hed provide more value as a starter. (roughly speaking i havent run the numbers to be precise). that allows Hill to be expendable, or Marshall to get a real shortstop.
  17. Mephistopheles
    and the run frequency argument runF(1,1,1,2,5...inf) = 2.5% runF(0,1,0,2,2...inf) = 7.6% runF(0,0,0,2,1...inf) = 7.7%
  18. Mephistopheles
    a homer is always better. run expectancy bases loaded 2 outs: .815 a home run leaves us at 4 runs + runE(0,0,0,2) = 4.117 a double leaves us at 3 runs + runE(0,1,0,2) = 3.334 It's not close. Take the home run.
  19. Mephistopheles
    Oh and I don't expect any of you to agree with me. That's expected.
  20. Mephistopheles
    Let's trade Marshal and start the force that is Carlos Marmol. He'd be fine. BTW the FB/SLD only myth are guys that cant start is just that a myth
  21. Mephistopheles
    Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April. Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage. WARP for pitchers is leverage adjusted. Well sorta. It's a [expletive] way but it is. BP really has a disaster on their hands with WARP for pitchers. Its too bad theyre too dumb to know it oh and in addition, Marmol's leverage isnt all that high for a reliever. It really isnt. Thats Lous fault more than anything.
  22. Mephistopheles
    Hell, I'd say Marmol has been more valuable than Theriot and he's only a reliever who wasn't even in the bigs in April. Marmol has a WARP3 of 4.3, while Theriot has a 3.7... and that doesn't even account for Marmol's much higher leverage. WARP for pitchers is leverage adjusted. Well sorta. It's a [expletive] way but it is. BP really has a disaster on their hands with WARP for pitchers. Its too bad theyre too dumb to know it
  23. Mephistopheles
    If UF-Georgia was not a neutral game then Florida would be playing UM every season. Urbans trying to get something done so they can bring back that rivalry. They are playing next season. UF's non-conference is vs Hawaii, vs Miami and @ FSU next season.
  24. Mephistopheles
    so say LSU beating Arkansas say 42-21 should be worth as much as Florida beating Arkansas 21-20? Thats dumb. If you want to cap margin of victory at something, say 21-24 points, thats fine. Margin of victory certainly matters just as it does in baseball.
  25. Mephistopheles
    who would go? probably PSU and USC. Who would be deserving? USC and UF/LSU which i dunno. Under that scenario its hard to imagine that PSU being more deserving. With the BCS system treating wins and losses as absolute (a 31-28 OT win looks the same as a 70-0 win against the same teams) PSU would sneak in, which is again absurd. They took out quality wins, margin of victory and everything else making the system effectively a poll.
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