Mephistopheles

we're talking about trading for him. how wrigley affects him has to factor into it. the fact that most of wrigleys effects him will hurt him more than others will make him a better fit elsewhere. its like greene in san diego or a lefty instead of a righty at enron.

Wrigley will cut down on his triples (short gaps). Wrigley will cut down on his doubles (short gaps). Wrigley will cut down on his singles (high grass). The usual increase in HR power production won't benefit him as much because his game isn't built around flyballs. His speed benefit ratio would decrease due to the park tradeoff. He's just not a good fit. Not to mention outfield defense isn't as useful in the park.

5x5 12 team. No good reasons as to why will be hilariously shot down methodically by Mephistopheles.

I did not say I would draft them in this order. If people were smart and rational like me (they're not) I would have to pick in the first round if I wanted him. Since people are stupid, I'll wait and reap the benefits of getting three first round quality players in the first three rounds and proceed to be the Fantasy God that I am.

Don't play the stupid card w/me, save it for someone else. He's one of the smartest and fastest baserunners in the game which adds value to his above avg. hitting abilities, approach, and defense. Of course, last year he had 50 steals in 57 attempts (87%) which added to his offensive value. He's a big ball park stud who excels at line drives and ground balls. A quality player he may turn out to be, but he's a bad fit for the Cubs in that respect. His trade value would exceed his on field value for the Cubs, where for a team like San Diego it would be the other way around. His skill set just isn't good for Wrigley.

dont roll your eyes at me. we both know who's right here: me, myself and well....myself.

thats stupid.

a career year =/= new expected level of production. his 07 was pretty much identical to his 2004 and 2005. Itll be much more of the same for Laroche.

ooh 50 steals.....im convinced. oh wait that means about 15-20 caught stealing.

This is probably true. James' Braun projection is a lovely .326 BA , 46 HR, 121 R, 122 RBI, 20 SB.

we can trade pie for all i care. sign kenny and be fine. but since were really interested in acquiring pitching too, why not work out a three team deal with the angels for joe saunders

The JR Towles ranking is not just a product of James liking him. Using similar methods based off of Marcel will net you a similar answer. Using the exact method in the first post, Towles would rank has the #16 position player. Ahead of Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes. Towles projections: .293/12/69/73/14 - Bill James .300/18/71/88/1 - Marcel .250/10/42/48/9 - ZiPS .263/10/48/50/10 - CHONE

Catchers are far too high-risk/low-reward to merit such inflated rankings. As long as you can get one of the top-6 or so catchers out there, you'll be fine. I would reach on one if the only other alternatives were players the level of Estrada/Napoli, but there's more depth in the position than your rankings indicate. I definitely would not draft a catcher in the top 25. There's other disagreements I have, but that's moreso with Bill James. I see Towles is this year's Chris Iannetta, who he had as .900+ OPS last year. Martin's going around 30th in most drafts, and he's clearly undervalued. The rankings posted above are based off of James, but do not really convert to pts over replacement player. They correlate but weren't found by them. They were found using a lognormal distribution of the players over replacement players in three ways and then compositing them for an overall score. Replacement level was defined to be the average player for players 16-25 at the position (48-75 for OFs) with a minimum of 400 AB. A large sample was needed to be taken otherwise you'd see that the replacement level OF, SS and 3B would steal about 20 bases. Diluting the Theriots was needed. These players should be freely available on waiver wires in most leagues. The three distributions: 1. A log normal distribution using ALL of the players for the distribution, not adjusting for position. Then doing a players percentile minus a replacement level players percentile for his position. 2. A log normal distribution using players ONLY at his position. Then doing that players percentile minus a replacement level players percentile for his position. You would think this would make guys at C inflated because obviously there will be catchers who have to rank in the upper 90 percentile and there's no adjustment if its all watered down and the distribution is low. A guy who has 20 HRs and RP level is 13 HR would get as much credit as a 3B with 50 HR when RP level is like 18 HR. However! this is exactly the opposite of what happens (more on this later). 3. A normal (not log) distribution of a players value over a replacement player for his position in a stat, compared to ALL players. So Martin would have a (his HR total - HR_RP_Catcher) and Ramirez (his HR total - HR_RP_3B). Then that distribution off the values over RP for each stat. Those three scores were then equally rated and scaled on (-100,100) where 0 is a replacement level player. Now that I've done a mock draft, which a thread will becoming for shortly, I've been able to incorporate point values as if it were a roto league. This can be done by finding the average team total for a stat and then the standard deviation. Then you can find the percentile rank among teams using a normal distribution and thus find expected roto points. So using that framework we can insert our new player to an average team or a replacement level team or your very own team. Two theories were used here. The first was pts added over an average player at your position with the rest of the team being average. Obviously there will only be a handful of positive players. The second was pts added over a replacement level player for the position, with the rest of the team being average again. The problem with only using the second is that it does not take in account the relative distribution of the above-replacement level players. Are there 2 or 3 uber elite guys and 10 fringe above average guys? Or 10 uber elite and only 3 fringe? Obviously the elite guys in the former will be underrated based on pts over replacement level and the pts over average player will help them, and opposite on the latter. The first thing that strikes out is that this method tends to make more one and two category performers more valuable. It helps guys like Carl Crawford, Ichiro, Brian Roberts, Adam Dunn, and Chris Young. It hurt guys who weren't overly great in anything, like Michael Young, Edgar Renteria, Ryan Zimmerman and Carlos Guillen. Still, Carl Crawford is going in the top fifteen picks in most drafts, which is a joke. This way he's still only the 31st ranked position player. The SBs just don't mean what you guys think. Jose Reyes has been going top five, he's now looking like a fringe first rounder, but those SBs just aren't worth it. Reyes is a two category performer after all. What does appear, is that the catcher inflation that CroMagnon thought was apparent does not exist. In the composite one Martins down to number 8. He's number 6 in the pts over average. So yes, he certainly should be a first rounder easy. The fact he's going in the middle of the third round in most drafts is a steal. Anyways: PTS_A PTS_RP SC_PTS Name 14.68 27.42 99.84 Ryan Braun 14.02 26.76 99.78 Alex Rodriguez 11.20 22.92 99.14 Albert Pujols 10.49 23.23 99.00 David Wright 10.83 20.09 98.41 Matt Holliday 8.74 21.54 98.06 Hanley Ramirez 8.83 20.55 97.85 Ryan Howard 9.89 18.27 97.27 Russell Martin 7.54 20.28 97.01 Miguel Cabrera 7.14 19.94 96.59 Jimmy Rollins 6.57 19.37 95.88 Jose Reyes 8.16 17.42 95.88 Vladimir Guerrero 7.97 17.23 95.61 Carlos Beltran 6.68 18.40 95.48 David Ortiz 7.98 17.02 95.43 Chase Utley 6.68 15.94 93.37 Grady Sizemore 5.66 14.92 91.00 Bobby Abreu 6.16 14.54 90.97 Victor Martinez 5.18 14.45 89.69 Alfonso Soriano 3.54 15.26 88.33 Prince Fielder 4.72 13.98 88.26 Nick Markakis 2.66 15.46 86.80 Derek Jeter 4.54 12.92 85.87 Joe Mauer 3.92 13.18 85.44 Carlos Lee 3.92 13.18 85.42 Hunter Pence 3.91 13.17 85.41 Adam Dunn 3.73 12.77 84.21 BJ Upton 2.30 14.02 83.75 Lance Berkman 3.14 12.40 82.21 Manny Ramirez 1.79 13.51 81.56 Mark Teixeira 2.75 12.01 80.41 Carl Crawford 2.55 11.81 79.45 Magglio Ordonez .77 13.58 78.81 Miguel Tejada 2.92 11.30 78.81 Jorge Posada 2.39 11.43 77.99 Brandon Phillips 1.97 11.24 76.44 Chris Young 2.01 11.05 75.98 Robinson Cano 1.62 10.89 74.46 Ichiro Suzuki 1.54 10.80 73.97 Curtis Granderson 1.89 10.27 73.13 JR Towles -.34 12.46 72.70 Troy Tulowitzki 1.40 10.44 72.41 Brian Roberts .03 11.75 72.18 Travis Hafner 1.55 9.93 71.07 Brian McCann .86 10.12 69.80 Corey Hart -.98 11.76 68.51 Garrett Atkins .63 9.90 68.29 Torii Hunter .58 9.84 67.94 Matt Kemp .92 9.30 66.98 Kenji Johjima -1.40 11.40 65.86 Rafael Furcal -1.42 11.39 65.74 Michael Young .23 9.27 64.65 Dan Uggla -.13 9.13 62.91 Johnny Damon -1.86 10.94 62.58 Carlos Guillen -1.61 10.11 60.91 Todd Helton -.35 8.69 60.36 Tadahito Iguchi -.78 8.48 57.91 Gary Sheffield -.73 8.31 57.36 Kelly Johnson -2.58 10.16 56.82 Ryan Zimmerman -1.00 8.26 56.15 Andruw Jones -1.18 8.09 54.69 Juan Pierre -1.51 7.75 51.86 Hideki Matsui -1.44 7.60 51.45 Ian Kinsler -1.48 7.56 51.08 Rickie Weeks -3.40 9.34 50.00 Aramis Ramirez -1.92 7.34 48.22 Lastings Milledge -2.09 7.17 46.70 Brad Hawpe -3.32 8.40 46.60 Justin Morneau -3.81 8.92 46.31 Josh Fields -2.16 6.88 45.03 Jeff Kent -2.65 6.61 41.50 Alexis Rios -4.41 8.39 41.03 Edgar Renteria -3.92 7.80 40.99 Paul Konerko -2.71 6.55 40.93 Nick Swisher -4.53 8.21 39.64 Chipper Jones -4.66 8.08 38.44 Chone Figgins -3.02 6.24 37.91 Jacoby Ellsbury -3.04 6.22 37.76 Jason Bay -5.02 7.78 35.18 Jhonny Peralta -5.12 7.68 34.21 JJ Hardy -3.45 5.81 33.65 Raul Ibanez -3.34 5.70 33.59 Felipe Lopez -3.48 5.78 33.39 Delmon Young -3.56 5.71 32.62 Josh Hamilton -5.25 7.48 32.59 Mark Reynolds -3.57 5.69 32.46 Pat Burrell -5.37 7.37 31.43 Adrian Beltre -3.24 5.14 31.16 Geovany Soto -3.60 5.44 30.97 Kazuo Matsui -3.73 5.54 30.89 Aaron Rowand -3.27 5.11 30.84 Carlos Ruiz -3.77 5.49 30.42 Jeff Francoeur -5.18 6.54 28.45 Joey Votto -4.00 5.04 26.84 Howie Kendrick -4.17 5.09 26.31 Vernon Wells -4.17 5.09 26.26 Eric Byrnes -4.38 4.88 24.05 Felix Pie -4.01 4.37 23.19 Ivan Rodriguez -4.07 4.31 22.62 AJ Pierzynski -4.20 4.18 21.19 Mike Napoli -4.86 4.41 19.04 Mike Cameron -6.11 5.61 18.70 Adrian Gonzalez -6.17 5.55 18.08 Derrek Lee -4.88 4.16 17.60 Placido Polanco -5.02 4.24 17.23 Austin Kearns -6.83 5.91 16.23 Troy Glaus -4.68 3.70 16.14 Jason Varitek -6.93 5.81 15.20 Alex Gordon -6.99 5.81 14.84 Orlando Cabrera -5.29 3.97 14.34 Jack Cust -6.52 5.20 14.32 Carlos Delgado -4.92 3.46 13.49 Jarrod Saltalamacchia -5.40 3.86 13.17 JD Drew -5.47 3.79 12.37 Justin Upton -5.59 3.68 11.11 Jermaine Dye -5.57 3.47 10.03 Luis Castillo -7.57 5.23 8.58 Khalil Greene -5.93 3.33 7.33 Michael Cuddyer -5.49 2.88 7.26 Bengie Molina -6.02 3.25 6.42 Gary Matthews -7.81 5.00 6.06 Julio Lugo -6.20 3.06 4.35 Jose Guillen -6.22 3.04 4.16 Rick Ankiel -6.29 2.97 3.40 Jeremy Hermida -5.88 2.49 2.99 Ramon Hernandez -6.35 2.91 2.73 Willy Taveras -6.38 2.89 2.44 Josh Willingham -6.33 2.71 1.74 Freddy Sanchez -6.04 2.33 1.24 Paul Lo Duca -8.22 4.52 1.20 Kevin Kouzmanoff -6.51 2.75 .96 Reggie Willits -6.47 2.57 .17 Aaron Hill -6.68 2.58 -.95 Billy Butler -8.50 4.24 -1.84 Edwin Encarnacion -8.58 4.22 -2.38 Ryan Theriot -6.89 2.37 -3.22 Ken Griffey -6.64 1.74 -5.29 Ronny Paulino -8.38 3.34 -6.18 Kevin Youkilis -8.42 3.30 -6.55 Carlos Pena -6.88 1.50 -7.97 Kurt Suzuki -7.32 1.94 -8.02 Shane Victorino -7.39 1.65 -9.98 Orlando Hudson -7.10 1.28 -10.37 Ryan Doumit -7.59 1.67 -10.91 Bill Hall -7.64 1.62 -11.52 David DeJesus -8.90 2.82 -11.86 Jim Thome -7.70 1.57 -12.08 Joey Gathright -7.79 1.48 -13.07 Melky Cabrera -7.50 .88 -14.64 Johnny Estrada -7.85 1.19 -14.91 Mark Ellis -7.97 1.29 -15.12 Rocco Baldelli -9.82 2.91 -16.16 Akinori Iwamura -7.68 .70 -16.61 John Buck -8.22 1.04 -17.76 Andre Ethier -8.29 .98 -18.47 Corey Patterson -9.62 2.10 -19.59 Adam LaRoche -8.42 .62 -21.08 Dustin Pedroia -8.76 .50 -23.58 Jerry Owens -8.81 .45 -24.07 Mark Teahen -8.83 .43 -24.26 Garret Anderson -8.94 .32 -25.47 Chris Duncan -10.85 1.95 -26.61 Jason Bartlett -11.01 1.73 -28.56 Eric Chavez -11.30 1.44 -31.51 Scott Rolen -9.56 -.29 -31.78 Brian Giles -11.37 1.43 -31.83 Stephen Drew -10.85 .87 -32.39 Mike Jacobs -10.96 .76 -33.51 Frank Thomas -11.01 .71 -33.95 James Loney -11.62 1.18 -34.34 Yuniesky Betancourt -9.51 -1.13 -35.54 Chris Snyder -11.21 .51 -36.02 Conor Jackson -9.57 -1.19 -36.17 Gregg Zaun -10.01 -.74 -36.29 Moises Alou -11.84 .90 -36.85 Hank Blalock -10.04 -1.00 -37.66 Ron Belliard -11.38 .34 -37.66 Ryan Garko -10.17 -.91 -37.90 Wily Mo Pena -12.05 .75 -38.56 Brandon Wood -12.04 .70 -38.74 Melvin Mora -12.16 .64 -39.61 David Eckstein -10.44 -1.17 -40.48 Randy Winn -10.47 -1.20 -40.76 Coco Crisp -10.54 -1.28 -41.51 Matt Diaz -10.15 -1.77 -41.75 Dave Ross -10.70 -1.43 -42.94 Franklin Gutierrez -10.29 -1.91 -43.03 Michael Barrett -12.63 .17 -43.97 Yunel Escobar -10.44 -2.06 -44.45 Dioner Navarro -10.50 -2.12 -44.99 Gerald Laird -12.73 .01 -45.19 Mike Lowell -10.93 -1.89 -46.12 Mark DeRosa -11.08 -1.81 -46.47 Luke Scott -11.09 -1.83 -46.60 Marcus Thames -11.26 -1.99 -48.09 Xavier Nady -11.32 -2.28 -49.58 Ray Durham -13.28 -.48 -49.82 Jack Wilson -13.32 -.58 -50.47 Ty Wigginton -11.51 -2.47 -51.29 Brendan Harris -11.52 -2.48 -51.37 Asdrubal Cabrera -11.57 -2.53 -51.79 Danny Richar -11.71 -2.44 -52.05 Ryan Freel -11.40 -3.03 -52.97 Josh Bard -11.55 -3.17 -54.16 Yorvit Torrealba -13.27 -1.55 -54.78 Jason Giambi -13.33 -1.61 -55.25 Dmitri Young -12.15 -2.88 -55.75 Jason Kubel -12.15 -2.88 -55.76 Aubrey Huff -12.18 -2.91 -56.01 Nate McLouth -13.47 -1.75 -56.42 Daric Barton -14.08 -1.28 -56.52 Cristian Guzman -12.43 -3.39 -58.87 Jose Lopez -12.54 -3.28 -58.94 Jonny Gomes -12.64 -3.38 -59.74 Jacque Jones -12.59 -3.55 -60.15 Jose Vidro -12.76 -3.49 -60.61 Ryan Church -12.77 -3.51 -60.74 Jim Edmonds -14.14 -2.42 -61.65 Richie Sexson -14.21 -2.49 -62.19 Dan Ortmeier -13.12 -3.86 -63.35 Dave Roberts -12.76 -4.38 -63.67 Brian Schneider -13.22 -3.95 -64.04 Travis Buck -15.27 -2.47 -65.41 Alex Gonzalez -13.02 -4.64 -65.49 Yadier Molina -13.43 -4.17 -65.60 Carlos Gomez -13.45 -4.19 -65.71 Chris Denorfia -13.56 -4.29 -66.46 Frank Catalanotto -13.63 -4.37 -66.98 Geoff Jenkins -14.88 -3.16 -66.99 Lyle Overbay -14.91 -3.19 -67.15 Ross Gload -14.93 -3.21 -67.34 Casey Kotchman -15.53 -2.79 -67.45 Jose Bautista -15.64 -2.90 -68.21 Nomar Garciaparra -13.84 -4.57 -68.36 Adam Lind -13.95 -4.68 -69.09 Carlos Quentin -15.87 -3.07 -69.45 Bobby Crosby -15.87 -3.07 -69.45 Adam Everett -13.71 -5.33 -70.16 Jason Kendall -16.03 -3.29 -70.70 Joe Crede -16.12 -3.38 -71.26 Casey Blake -16.16 -3.36 -71.26 Tony Pena -14.32 -5.28 -72.15 Marcus Giles -15.74 -4.02 -72.51 Kevin Millar -14.43 -5.39 -72.82 Mark Grudzielanek -14.54 -5.28 -72.85 Brandon Jones -14.21 -5.83 -73.24 Rod Barajas -16.63 -3.83 -74.10 Omar Vizquel -16.70 -3.97 -74.73 Wilson Betemit -16.15 -4.43 -74.92 Ben Broussard -14.53 -6.15 -75.06 Mike Rabelo -14.82 -5.78 -75.10 Josh Barfield -16.20 -4.48 -75.23 Dan Johnson -15.00 -5.74 -75.53 Marlon Byrd -17.00 -4.20 -76.15 Brendan Ryan -15.12 -5.85 -76.17 Michael Bourn -15.16 -5.90 -76.43 Adam Jones -17.09 -4.29 -76.63 Erick Aybar -15.29 -6.03 -77.11 Cliff Floyd -15.40 -6.14 -77.69 Cody Ross -15.40 -6.14 -77.71 Milton Bradley -15.58 -6.32 -78.62 Scott Hairston -15.56 -6.52 -79.06 Adam Kennedy -17.76 -5.02 -80.22 Mike Lamb -16.00 -6.73 -80.68 Matt Stairs -16.07 -6.81 -81.04 Elijah Dukes -17.95 -5.22 -81.14 Kendry Morales -17.65 -5.93 -82.49 Scott Hatteberg -16.47 -7.21 -82.84 Jay Payton -18.35 -5.61 -82.87 Rich Aurilia -16.59 -7.33 -83.36 Gabe Gross -16.76 -7.49 -84.04 Mark Kotsay -18.69 -5.95 -84.28 Wes Helms -16.92 -7.66 -84.71 Jason Michaels -18.81 -6.07 -84.76 Jorge Cantu -17.00 -7.74 -85.01 Reed Johnson -16.94 -7.90 -85.18 Josh Wilson -18.97 -6.17 -85.25 Luis Hernandez -17.36 -8.09 -86.36 Chris Snelling -17.65 -8.39 -87.40 Jay Gibbons -17.98 -8.72 -88.49 Craig Monroe[/code]

im glad ingrams coming back for his senior year

and 10:11 odds should mean that you have a 10/(10+11)=~48% chance of winning the division, but since its Vegas' definition of odds, it's probably more like 10/(2*(10+11)) =~25%.

In the interest of fairness, you would also have to allow the ladies on this site to have their own "hottest stud" type threads without interference of any male, regardless of how sexist their female comments might be. Chance of all males being able to refrain from that: close to 0%. :lol: they already have that: it's called threads on political candidates. ;) Hillary doesn't count as a "stud" no matter how manly she may be. but she wears pantsuits. /robert hansson

In the interest of fairness, you would also have to allow the ladies on this site to have their own "hottest stud" type threads without interference of any male, regardless of how sexist their female comments might be. Chance of all males being able to refrain from that: close to 0%. :lol: they already have that: it's called threads on political candidates. ;)

Gary Carter was pretty well deserving.

Fuku is a significant upgrade from our RF production last year.

bill james stats..my rankings

guess who was an all star (well sorta) mitch meluskey well he was a 400 obp catcher for a year...

is this the new nomination thread? jessica simpson is a cowboy fan! killer legs too. i know this one http://i.cnn.net/si/multimedia/photo_gallery/0709/cheerleaders.nfl.week1/images/075557996.jpg

sure it could, they want impact hitting. theyre not going to trade lincecum for a pitcher with more service time and a lower ceiling who is inferior now.

allow hottest chick type threads. my god 90% of people are males over the age of 18 AND its quite likely to result in less fighting than other threads that are pure fire.

5x5