Yes. Two pitchers that are 1 win apart, and only because of the IP difference? I consider that a wash. The only guy out of those three that ZIPS projects a league-average performance from is Schierholtz, and that's because he's getting platoon-protected. That seems like the most likely scenario. All seems pretty likely to me. Seems pretty likely. Jackson's the only one I'd give better than a 20% chance of becoming a big-leaguer this season. You're doing a very good job of listing things that might go right (but probably won't for most of them). You've ignored that things can also go wrong, beyond just their ability to not go right. What if Samardzija isn't as good as his FIP last year? What if Rizzo takes a step back? What if Soriano's legs finally give out? What if Castillo can't really hit in the majors full-time? What if Fujikawa is no good in the states? What if Travis Wood can no longer straddle the fine line between being useful and being AAA fodder? what if your dick falls off and you're left with this weird ken doll thing