davearm

A preliminary guess tells me the majority of the media is anti-Ramirez. And most of them would be more than fine with Hendry letting him walk. And if he replaces Ramirez with ARod or Tejada, or loses Ramirez and gains Lee and Soriano, I'd bet the majority of fans would be fine with that trade off. Seems to me everyone agrees that the Cubs need ARam *and* ARod/Tejada/Soriano. Who is everyone? Clearly the media isn't included in that, as so many of them are scoffing at the idea that Hendry needs Ramirez. And many fans still harp on his hustle more than his production. Well I wasn't clear. What everyone seems to agree with is that the Cubs need to add another "stellar" bat (to use Hendry's term). Implicitly, two "stellar" bats would be needed if ARam leaves.

A preliminary guess tells me the majority of the media is anti-Ramirez. And most of them would be more than fine with Hendry letting him walk. And if he replaces Ramirez with ARod or Tejada, or loses Ramirez and gains Lee and Soriano, I'd bet the majority of fans would be fine with that trade off. Seems to me everyone agrees that the Cubs need ARam *and* ARod/Tejada/Soriano. Lose ARam, and now you've got two major lineup holes to fill, instead of one. Perhaps foolishly, I don't believe Hendry and co. are stupid enough to bank on those two major acquisitions, plus one or two major acquisitions needed on the pitching side, all being achieved. It's just highly unrealistic.

He'd take it a step further and talk about whoever the new 3B is an upgrade somewhere as well. He's the ultimate glass half full guy, who always expects the best. That's why he can sign a guy like Jones and only think of the upside, or acquire Izturis and talk about how he led the lead in hits for 2 months. He will only look at the best aspects of a player, and ignore the likelihood/unlikelihood of that player actually performing at his best. He has yet to plan for setbacks with any of his acquisitions. He thought of Pierre as the guy who helped Florida with the WS, and not the guy he's been the majority of his career. He thought of Rusch and Neifi as the guys who put up career numbers in limited roles, and not the failures they've been throughout their careers. He's sees the topline potential, but not the bottom rung risk. Happily, there are no 3B available on the market that can concievably be an upgrade over Aramis in any category except RISP w/2 outs. You're right about Hendry. Nearly every aquisition in the last 2 years, he's trumped up some random positive and ignored the giant negatives. How do you know he's ignored the negatives? Did you expect him to focus on them when he introduces a guy at a press conference? "We're thrilled to have Jacque Jones joining the Cubs! Hopefully his crap arm and pathetic OBP don't hurt us too badly, and we'll still be able to win some games despite having him in our lineup every day." C'mon. Just because he emphasizes a guy's positives publicly through the media, doesn't necessarily mean he's completely oblivious to the negatives.

Talk is cheap, though. The Trib, McDonough and Hendry can talk about a World Series all they want, but if they don't actually take steps to make that happen, it's just PR talk. It's not unrealistic to think that Hendry would lose Aramis to FA, sign someone borderline average to play 3B and maybe sign Soriano and call it an upgraded offseason based on the Soriano aquisition. People who think critically would know better, though. I don't have the faith in Hendry to believe that he knows that contending without Ramirez would be extremely difficult. McDonough and Piniella are brand new, and under pressure to make an immediate positive impact. Meanwhile Hendry's job is clearly on the line. So right away, this situation with ARam will be a defining moment for this new regime. Pull through, and the PR talk is backed up. Screw it up, and it's a major step backwards right out of the gate. Both fans and the media will immediately see right through the PR talk and realize it's business as usual for the lovable losers. My gut says that everyone involved realizes that this absolutely cannot happen.

It's bad business though. The Red Sox would have a really hard time getting Japanese players in the future if they pulled such a move. Japanese teams probably wouldn't accept their bids in the future. Beyond the "bad business" angle, I would expect that Selig would step in and push his weight around if it looked like the winning bidder was playing games. What that means exactly I can't say, but he'd do whatever was in his power to avoid having this situation play out as described.

Every voice we've heard at Wrigley in the last month, from McDonaugh to Hendry to Piniella, has delivered the same message: World Series. Now. That task goes from difficult to impossible if Hendry lets Aramis Ramirez get away. Hendry knows it, ARam knows it, and the whole world knows it. So doing whatever it takes to keep this guy is Hendry's only option here. He *has* to get this worked out. There's no other choice, plain and simple. Fortunately, indications are that ARam's preference is to stay. So the only question left to be answered is, how much $$$ will ARam hold the Cubs hostage for? I expect this game of chicken to go down to the 11th hour, but it'll get done, because it has to for the Cubs' recent party line to hold any water whatsoever.

why Howery, he didn't do a bad job a bit over-used in the last month along with the rest of the pen. I'd rather trade Eyre. But you have to give up quality to get quality. A middle reliever should never stand in the way of a deal to get a star like ARod. You can't just include guys you want to get rid of. This is it. I'm giving the Yanks their choice of pitchers not named Zambrano. I'm guessing the starter they want most is Prior, and the reliever they want most is Howry. Add one or two other lesser names for good measure, and call it a deal.

Prior's salary is the least of anyone's worries here. The difference between $1M and $4M is trivial to the Yankees, especially considering the amount of payroll they're shedding in this deal. But I agree that they'd require that Prior undergo the Mother of all physical exams.

Fearless prediction: Prior, Howry, and Marshall for ARod. Maybe Gallagher or Veal needs to be added instead of Marshall, and maybe another reliever (perhaps Ohman) goes too. Regardless, Prior and Howry are the centerpieces, and Hendry gets his man ARod. Miller re-signed to be the #5. Wood re-signed to quasi-replace Howry. 2 new starting pitchers brought in via trade, free agency, international signing. One big name, one lesser name. Guzman, Marmol, Mateo, etc. serve as emergency starters/swingmen. One mid-tier hitter added to play 2B or CF (Izturis, Theriot, or Pie gets the remaining spot), and some depth is added to the bench (ideally a RH OF to platoon with Jones). IMO this is what Hendry and co. will roll out for 2007.

I believe bids are due back in *4* days, not 40. The article that said 40 was a typo. The bid process should play out quickly.

I'm having nightmares of this thread being bumped a little over a year from now, when ARod's elsewhere, and Zambrano's pulling on another team's jersey at a press conference announcing his signing as a free agent. Unless/until Zambrano has signed an extension, ARod's the proverbial bird in hand, and Z is the 2 in the bush.

Having Sheets in hand and available to be flipped heading into this ARod situation could definitely be huge. Sheets does have a NTC though.

I did not know that, and I'd love to see that international map. I'm familiar with how the broadcasting rights work nationally. I believe the broadcasting rights in other countries in which TV rights have been assigned to one or more MLB club work the same as they do within the states. I do recall reading somewhere that MLB has made MLB.TV unavailable in Japan.

Or, perhaps ARam's fine with Piniella, but it was Joe Girardi that he didn't want to play for. And perhaps Hendry is well aware of ARam's feelings on the manager subject, and is proceeding accordingly.

Billboard ads and money from the influx of Japanese tourists to the ballpark. And possibly broadcasting games in Japan, no? It's my understanding that MLB owns all international broadcast rights, and all the teams share that revenue equally. Not really. What the teams share is revenue from "advanced media", which is basically comprised of satellite radio, and MLB's online subscription-based services like MLB.TV. Traditional TV broadcast rights are divvied up amongst the clubs geographically, and the revenues these sources provide are kept by the individual clubs. (This is a big part of what produces the "haves" and "have nots" around the league -- the Yankees can sell their broadcast rights in their region for way way more $$$ than the Royals can sell their rights in their region for.) Anyway, MLB has placed Japan in the SEA and NYY "regions". Meaning, SEA and NYY have the rights to sell their broadcasts in Japan, but no other clubs do. Here's a look at MLB's territorial map of the US. http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/sp/tools/med/2006/06/ipt/1150742098.jpg There's a similar international one out there somewhere that has "SEA NYY" stamped on Japan, and "TOR" stamped on all of Canada.

Contract incentives cannot be tied to performance measures like wins or saves. The only "performance" incentives MLB allows are for awards like MVP, Cy Young, All-Star game, etc.

Does Theriot remind anybody else of David Eckstein?

The Dodgers will obviously want a prospect in the deal, if they have to acquire Jones in your scenerio. But depending on how much they want to pick up, would depend on the prospect they got. Obviously, the Gallagher/Veal/Pawelek/Pie would be off-limit, but would somebody like Mateo or Wuertz tempt the Dodgers? IDK, but I would investigate if I was Hendry. I don't think anything's obvious here, except that the entire scenario depends greatly on the Dodgers' level of motivation to clear that money. I get the impression that Pat Gillick would be absolutely thrilled to take a guy like Jones back if it meant ridding himself of Pat Burrell and his bloated contract. If the Dodgers get to a similar point with Drew, then anything's possible.

If the Dodgers are in a hurry to get out from under Drew's contract, then maybe they take Jones for Drew straight up? Jones @ 2/9 maybe looks better to them than Drew @ 3/33. Obviously the talent/production isn't balanced, but we've all seen crazier salary dumps than that. $24M saved is nothing to sneeze at, especially these days, when GMs are swapping contracts as much as they are players.

Carlos Lee needs to stay in the AL, where he can gradually migrate into DH-hood. If an NL team signs him, he'll be the next Pat Burrell: solid power hitter, lousy LF, injury headache, huge contract, untradeable.

Matt Murton. Bat Giles second if it's that big of a deal. Bingo. If Giles likes to hit second, then just elevate Murton to leadoff, where his ~.360-.370 OBP with a little pop would play just fine. Move Jones to CF and view him as a placeholder for Pie. When Pie's ready Jones becomes a part-time player or trade bait. Get a solid middle-of-the-order hitter for RF (LH, preferrably), and you're set. Murton Giles Lee Ramirez Barrett (or ) (or Barrett) Jones Izturis Jones as a CF and 7th place hitter is more than adequate, and 7th would be a fine place to start Pie.

Disagree completely. If the Astros give up some guys with future value for a 6 week rental, then that benefits the Cubs long-term, and we shouldn't care less about the impact it has this year.

The bolded part above is 100% incorrect, as others are trying to help you understand. The only risk in putting in the claim is getting stuck with the player and his contract. That's it. Some are saying that is essentially not a risk at all, since the Nats would never let this happen.

Actually I think this is great news, if true. I have this fear that Murton's Cub career will soon be steamrolled by an ill-advised Carlos Lee signing. As some others have suggested, I'd much rather leave Murton in LF and have him hit 1 or 2 (where his high OBP and modest SLG is a natural fit), put Jones in CF and hit him in the 6-7 range, and go get a legit 4 or 5 hitter to play RF. Murton Barrett Lee Ramirez Jones <2B> Izturis IMO this plan works great if <2b> is a solid hitter with a high .700s OPS; it turns pretty dicey if <2b> is Cedeno. EDIT: Naturally, you could make Soriano your 4/5 hitter and 2B, and get a high .700s OPS guy like Austin Kearns to play RF and bat 7th.

The Cubs would come after the Red Sox in the waiver priority. Since Lopez is on the O's: AL #14 . . . AL#1 NL#16 . . . NL#1