Ivy Walls

Piniella is not going to do the Durocher thing. He is going platoon. I see Soriano emerging in right field because of the obvious, that is where he helps the team the most with his arm. He might start 150 games. DeRosa will get 120 starts but not all at 2B where I see the Cubs platooning Theriot there and at SS Whether Cubs acquire Lugo or keep Izturis again I don't see more than 120 games from the starter and Theriot getting 100 + starts. D-Lee and Ramirez probably get 145 games (so Cubs need to get a 3B/1B like Randa Wilson and possibly Fick Catcher again I see Cubs trading Barrett and bringing in another C to platoon with Blanco like Barajas where each get almost 80 starts. In CF I do see the Cubs going for Lofton or even Erstad if he is not picked up by CO, but Pagan will get some time there. LF is still up in the air, Cubs are looking for a big trade. http://www.springsgov.com/Images/ImageManager/GardenGods.jpg[/img]

Getting 900 IP from your starters is critical. Zambrano 220, Hill 180, Cubs need 200 & 160 & 140 to get to 900. Schmidt is a 200 and Lilly could be the 160-170 where then Prior/Miller need to be 140 IP. If the Cubs get more from the 5th spot, it places less strain on the relief core and represents that the Cubs are in games in the last 3 innings.

His BA fell in 2006, 2004 he did hit 29 HR's, but he is essentially a .260 hitter under 20HR's, he has some versatility playing RF/LF/1B and did catch occassionally until 2004. I would take him as a 25th player on a very good team to platoon him occassionally in those corner spots and have him for emergency as a catcher.

Wood's profile is against this except he can be dominant and intimadating. He starter history was he was most effective the 2nd time through the order both in control and BA/ERA. Now if his shoulder holds up and he is able to work off of two pitches he could be dominant.

The curator broke the story last year that he had a shoulder problem, first denied and vilified and then turned out to be true. I heard that Prior is progressing and strengthening but the Cubs are not slotting him into the rotaton. Until I see changes however Prior still is the big piece for the Cubs to be that WS contender...healthy and effective as '03, he then is the ace.

We trade Jones, Izturis, Murton and Howry for Manny Ramirez (as Boston has signed JD and will have an OF), this can be done, and then go and sign Lofton for CF. Cubs would then have Lugo at SS, Soriano in RF, Ramirez in LF and Lofton CF (until Pie shows up). You could then platoon Pagan in LF in late innings. Lugo/DeRosa/Theriot would be a solid middle infield platoon. I then would sign Luis Gonzalez for reserve PH/OF (for Manny) and then Joe Randa for PH/3B/1B That leaves a bench of Theriot, Pagan, Gonzalez, Randa (allows Soriano to play 2B in a pinch) DeRosa could move over to SS, give Randa or Luis , and then sign Fisk C from Washington who can play the OF/1B and catch who bats left and Barajas C from Texas. Leaving one more acquisition (a SP) trade Barrett and Ohman for Jennings at CO. The team would then look like: Manny Ramirez LF(Gonzalez), Lofton CF(Pagan) Soriano RF(Fisk/Gonzalez) D-Lee 1B(Fisk) DeRosa 2B(Theriot/Soriano) Lugo SS(Cedeno/DeRosa) Aramas Ramirez 3B(Randa) Blanco(Barajas/Fisk) SP Zambrano-Hill-Lilly?-Jennings?-Prior et all RP Dempster-Wood-Eyre-Cotts-Wilson?-Rapada-Wuertz

Lilly highest is 197 (last year is 181), Cubs need to have the starting rotation eclipse 900 IP for them to truly compete. Lilly appears to me to be a late-blooming LHP, he has focus problems that Rothschild has a history addressing, he has a mechanical flaw with a 'tell' with his change up where he was fanning his glove, but he is also moving from the offensively strong AL East to the NL Central. He fills a spot there is another spot that I think will be Jennings from CO who wants to be FA next year and the Rockies need a SS and CF'er. However no matter how I shake it, I still don't see a true #1 ACE unless Prior is healthy and back to his '03 form.

Nixon playing RF is a bona fide defender and above average offensive player against RHP'ers, (his split against LHP'ers is .204), what he provides is a solid OBP. Cubs would have to platoon him with Murton (if he remains) or another RHB (not Pagan his split is worse against LHP'ers). This is not bad in that Piniella is on record believing a stronger platoon oriented team is the ticket for gaining a home field advantage in Wrigley. Bruce et all, to me that also means that the best roster structure for the Cubs is a 11-man pitching staff, 5-starters who hurl 900+IP and a utility player who can catch adequently (cheap Javy Lopez who can play the OF and 1B?), a regular platoon in the middle infield (why DeRosa) where the 3 middle infielders do not play more than 120 games apiece and where catchers are also platooned 50/50 with a 3rd bench backup who can play in the field and pinch hit.

The timetable is coming together as the prediction that by this weekend Ramirez will be traded. Ramirez will not demand a lot of players since the Cubs would be interested in taking on his salary and willing to extend him probably a year with another option. (Remember for all the money the Cubs have spent this year, they have about $70M still left before they reach their new limit, THE TAX CAP.) It appears that MacPhail had imposed an internal cap and one of the things that he lost in the political struggle in the Tribune exec suite was the fact that the Tribune had changed their idea as to the importance of the Cubs being an attraction and top dog in the city as opposed to a profit maker. MacPhail with an eye towards being a commissioner (Selig and maintaining the votes of the small market teams) would be no part of the Cubs finally acting like a big market team and overwhelming the competition with $$. But I think this is going to be a multiple team trade, Murton is coveted by the RedSox to return, they also want a couple of arms (Howry or Dempster), plus one of last year's starters, and a prospect or two that might include someone's else's player. It could include a trade with CO, Cleveland or Toronto or even TB but what I have been told privately and what I saw on TV last night with Hendry being interviewed was the Cubs are not done and they are not done getting an impact player and then getting pitching. With that in mind, signing Lugo (as rumored) would allow the Cubs to trade Izturis & Jones ((both of whom Hendry has marketed, and could be part of the multiple team package). This means Soriano moves to RF, leaving CF open (where the Cubs could sign Lofton or Finley for rent-aCF-er for 60 days until they bring up Pie in May, moving them to the bench. Lugo & DeRose in the middle, with the offense mainly coming from the corners. Pitching, I think hinges on Schmidt being an innings eater where then the other spot is picked up in that multiple team deal. My best bet right now is Colorado, they both a SS and CF'er bad possibly more relief, engineering a trade that includes something that Boston might like on top of what the Cubs have for Jennings and Ramirez is how things are done. All we can do is watch, but a word to the wise. We are not playing fantasy baseball where $$ doesn't count. Big contracts diminish the trade value of players, Ramirez at $20M plus probably another year and an option (meaning $80M) is no bargain. Schmidt at probably $14M for two year plus an option is no bargain. But the Cubs have $70M to spend. This will include Zambrano who should get in Schmidt numbers, those three would command, $48M plus an acquired pitcher minus the departed, where there is still need for the bench and arbitration.

First no matter what Hendry said about DeRosa starting exclusively at 2B I don't think that is edged in granite. Piniella is on record stating he is looking at the body of statistics going back decades and has found some reasons for the Cubs not winning besides talent. Possessing the strongest bench. DeRosa looks to me to be the super sub and will probably emerge as playing around the diamond. Lugo is another one if the Cubs emerge signing him who fits that mold, where 3 or 4 players play 120 games in a variety of platoons I am guessing that the trade Hendry is looking for is a big impact in LF, (Crawford or Wells or Ramirez) and then move Soriano to RF, otherwise I could see him signing Lofton and Nixon and then looking to trade Jones & Murton. If a trade for Crawford or Wells or whomever it would also involve a starting pitcher. Here is trade: Ramirez for Murton, Jones, Marshall and Ohman

Speculation is what it is, Cubs are looking at options and they have a dilemna: One of the two prospects, (Gallagher & Veal) will be slated for late '07 or '08 or '09. Prior...regardless of the know it alls, if he is ever healthy, the 5 spot is good for him. Zambrano, can or will he be signed to an extension. Hill, will he perform like August & September? Could the Cubs go with Maddux ($9M-$10M in '07 &'08) again with a trade for a starter? Yes...could that also include Batista & a trade, yes.

the journey will be interesting. I maintain with some knowledge (and not emotions) that Wood's issue could have been his knee and if that is right now he might just have a Sutcliffe kind of year ('89) Prior, will return and do well, the question is not them it is Marshall and Rusch.

Pierre will be trade value if or when two things appear: One; Pie establishes himself in AAA like Cedeno did last year (or Murton did in AA last year) and Two; when another contender loses an OF'er and seeks out the Cubs before July 31st.

than rent-a-OF'er. But OTOH, there were statements by the Cubs that they would entertain oppty's to extend Pierre's contract, that didn't materialize. For every action there is a reaction.... So IF Pie has a steller AAA first half of the year, .330 plus 10-HR's plus 15 SB's and good defense, WHAT IF...the Cubs looked into trading Pierre in and around the All Star break for good value in return..... Especially IF Pagan shows he too can play then the risk of trading Pierre is mitigated in the OF by platooning Pie like Florida platooned Cabrera in '03.

My favorite cliche is "that is why they play the games". When Spring Training began my dark horse was Ryu, (and he did well to display) but the real Spring Surprise has been the accent of Marshall to the probably #4 for April's irregular rotation. Watch out Rusch, Prior, Wood & Miller when April is done and Wood returns he end up being in the rotation through the rest of summer! The other surprise is the Pagan's accent to a bona fide find as a #4 OF'er, Pagan might be so good that he is the RH platoon for Jones in RF. The other surprise is yet to come since the Cubs appear to have a yoyo 25th position available on the roster, it could be Theriot or it could be an acquisition from March 31st's scrap heap. I wouldn't be surprised that Hendry trades Williams along with another (Walker?) to add something to 25 man roster that is a difference maker and to the minor system. (Would you take Vidro and platoon him with Hairston? Something is going to happen.) The last surprise was Murton's offensive stamp, look for him to bolt out of the gate and secure his place in the lineup, period. Other items of note: Guzman re-established himself as a bona fide. Simply log some healthy innings and he will be pitching here next year no doubt. He could be what the Cubs need to let Wood go FA. Ryu as a I mentioned also put himself on the radar. Hill appears destined for the bullpen as he could be a heck of a LOOGY....just throw strikes. Finally Pie has put himself into position to push Pierre and his high $$ ideas to the marketplace but he too must do what he did in AAA that he did in AA. Questions: Wuertz, Novoa, Rusch, Williams, Cedeno, Lee & Williamson. Some are small questions like Williamson's back, Lee signing an extension, Cedeno playing defense, others are apprehensions like Rusch, Wuertz, Novoa and then the big one is Williams. Finally can the OF play good enough defense and will the Cubs win 90 or more.

Last year the talk was Dubois and he was always filler and trade bait. Suddenly looking up AA WTN had 6 guys batting .300 + in June. Then Cedeno wouldn't quit batting .360 in AAA and forced himself onto the SHOW. Here are my thoughts in category: 2006 impact: Pitchers A-1 Marshall, (heck after today he might have earned himself onto the April roster and then stick). A-2 Guzman; depending on the injury status of Wood, Miller and Prior or the performances Rusch and/or Williams he too could have a significant impact. A-3 Ryu; he too is an injury backup this year, A-4 Aardsma watch if Wuertz and Novoa have problems if he is brought in during the summer months. Position players: A-1: Pagan; he too might make the April roster as the 25 man and then might pinball back and forth through the season depending if the Cubs want 12 pitchers or 14 position players. A-2: Theroit (see above) he has speed, contact hitter and can play all infield positions. Prospects rise if/when Cubs trade older middle infielders. A-3: Sing, my darkhorse in becoming the 25 man by June 1st as Cubs seek to platoon Jones against lefties where Brendan's stick occassionally and off the bench is too much to hold in Iowa. A-4: Pie will be called if Pierre or Jones are hurt otherwise Pie does not arrive until September, which he will remain for a long time. Prospects rising for 2007 Besides the three starting pitchers of Marshall, Ryu and Guzman look for Veal to move up from Daytona to AA. The other to watch is Marmol, the converted position player into a closer with a rocket arm. Hagerty is the other like Marshall is coming off a couple of seasons of injury. Position players: As the Cubs get acquainted with the successes of Murton and Cedeno watch for Eric Patterson to break into the Cubs dugout in September and then he will compete for the starting spot next spring as a lead off hitter. (This is why the Cubs do not extend Pierre and allow Pie to take over CF for '07). Also watch the catchers as I suspect the Cubs will look for one of their developing backstops to compete with Barrett and Blanco for a spot in '07 or at least '08. Long term: Dopirak has reclaimed his status as a special prospect this spring but if or when Lee extends his contract Dopirak will be TRADE BAIT par deluxe, expecially if Sing makes the 25 man roster as a platoon/pinch hitting 1B/OF'er. Harvey, this is the year when Harvey either gets it or becomes a forgotten 1st round draft choice. Pawelek, he will be tooling in Peoria and if he dominates like Gallagher surprised the experts last year watch him move to Daytona by August. Gallagher, if he repeats with is great Peoria A performance watch as he is moved to AAA for '07 What are the Cubs needs. Always pitching, then if Patterson moves up with Pie the Cubs next needs will be catching and depth.

Each year players usually deviate from the previous year or occassionally spike or degrade, there are many factors. Also hitting is relational to a teams roster. Cubs are uncertain but here are some factors to consider this year, how many are on one year contracts? Pierre, Murton, Cedeno, Walker or Hairston, Lee (as of now), Blanco, Perez, Pagan or Grissom Meaning only Ramirez (who is now in his chronological prime along with Pierre, Jones and Barrett), Barrett and Jones have multi year contracts. So here is the following on paper I would project that Pierre will return to his career numbers with a FA year and chronological prime. Jones is unknown and a risk, Murton is unknown, Cedeno is unknown, Ramirez could move to career numbers, Walker/Hairston near career numbers and Lee within career areas. Then of course the offense is relative to the needs based on pitching, this too is uncertain. Zambrano is approaching prime years, Maddux past his prime is reported and substantiated to be in best shape since 35, Rusch is meat, Williams is best shape but disappointing, Marshall is unknown, Wood is prime but returning injured, Miller (see Wood), then there is the bullpen. On the whole I am optimistic, but ask me after 40 games.

That depends on how you measure it, best available or soon-to-be-available arm, best prospect or best stuff/potential. Pawelek is unquestionably the best prospect in the system right now where Gallagher (last year's surprise now in AA) and Veal (now in Adv-A). At that level of A Cubs have a wealth of arms which will shake out some this year. At the AAA or AA best available or soon-to-be-available Guzman has the best stuff, little doubt but can he pitch. Marshall has supplanted Hill on the projected depth chart but going into camp Ryu was the quiet dark horse and still has very good stuff. On top of Williams Cubs have five bona fide available or S-T-B arms and if Williams and Rusch continue to struggle Cubs could possibly go north with Zambrano, Maddux, Guzman, Rusch, and Ryu or Marshall for the April 15th and April 25th start. Why not if they are commanding performance.

Where (and why) do you see things improving in the Cubs game(s): A) Infield defense B) Outfield defense C) scoring more runs especially without the aid of a HR D) bullpen efficiency