I think people are also factoring in that the Cards and Astros have lost some key parts. The Cardinals have 1 ace, 4 question marks, and a sharply declining Edmonds. The only team other than the Cubs that should be improved is the Brewers. The Cubs rotation should be the biggest improvement. Last year we started with Zambrano, Rusch, Maddux, Marshall, Williams, compared to Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Hill, Miller/Guzman this year. There's also a better chance of Prior coming back this season. Last year's rotation was disgusting while this year's could be top 5 in the NL The bench is vastly improved, the bullpen should be improved, the coaching is vastly improved, and you have Soriano and Lee, and Izturis will sadly probably be a significant improvement over Cedeno last year. Barring huge injuries and crazy flukes, I think its pretty crazy to pick the Cubs to finish 5th.