goonys evil twin

I think there was a far greater chance of the Cubs getting Brian Giles than Manny Ramirez.

I couple years ago I was laughed at for pointing out that the signing of Latroy Hawkins cost the Cubs a #1 draft pick, and that if you are going to lose a #1 you're better off losing it while acquiring a more impactful player than a middle reliever. But the Cubs scouts haven't been finding many good prospects in the draft anyway. They'd be better off pouring money into the international scouting scene, and maybe investing in a Japanese vet.

Last year the Cubs ranked 16th in the NL in OPS from CF. Florida was 15th. Wow. I didn't realize that Pierre was the only offensive output on the Marlins! Besides, it was a bad year last year, he is likely to rebound IMO. And also, his OPS isn't as important as his OBP. He needs to get on base. He has the speed to score from first. Anything extra just makes his job easier. Some of these new-fangled fans are dangerous. A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. They read a couple books about sabermetrics etc. and all of sudden everything boils down to someone's OPS. Pierre's OBP and ability to disrupt pitchers rhythms are his primary attributes. I don't care if the guy doesn't hit a home run all season. Well, you guys are real class acts. New fangled fans? Okay meat. If you don't think OPS matters, fine, Hendry and the Cubs don't seem to think it matters much either and we've seen the results of their theories. Pierre was pretty much the Marlins only CF last year, and he sucked. Corey was not the only Cubs CF. Their overall production from CF sucked, but Florida's wasn't much better. If you replaced FL's CF production with the Cubs, they'd have still sucked as a team. This is why people think Pierre is only a slight upgrade. People actually take the time to investigate this sort of stuff and don't just base their opinions on conventional wisdom, cliches and myth pushers of a bygone era like Joe Morgan.

I think run differential is a nice tool, but it's flawed. And saying this was an 86 win team is just wrong. The Cubs lost 83 games last year for a reason, and it wasn't luck.

Last year the Cubs ranked 16th in the NL in OPS from CF. Florida was 15th.

I'm not 100% certain of those rules, but I am certain they cannot trade Jones. And I am pretty certain they don't want to trade Jones. The problem with all of this is Hendry is happy with what he's done. He's had choices, and he's made them. He likes the look of the team. He can't wait to get rid of Corey and Walker, but by and large he's happy with the results of his work. He's not going to completely switch directions and trade away guys he went hard after.

What does a 5 tool player have to do with a 3 starter. 5 tool players are much more rare than #3 starters. And what are examples of #3 starters the Cubs could get for Walker? Are you talking somebody like Kris Benson? A highly compensated pitcher with a dubious injury history and highly unimpressive results. Are we talking Trachsel? I think you got to be more specific than just the generic #3 starter, which can mean a lot of things. Walker gone means Neifi everyday, Neifi everyday in this already weakened lineup means the pitching would have to be absolutely outstanding if the Cubs want to win a lot. #3 starters are, by definition, not outstanding. And a 3/27m #3 starter (the recent going rate) doesn't come close to equaling the value of a 1/2.5m Walker at 2B, especially in this offense.

Burnitz had a good glove, that didn't help anything last year. The Cubs got far better than expected defense last year at SS, that didn't help anything. Jones is crap. I don't know what useful in 75% of the games means, but he's no more useful in RF than Neifi is at SS or 2B, or Macias was as a utility guy. Just because you can fill the position doesn't mean you are good at the position.

Yes, this team's fortunes rely heavily on the starting pitchers. Wood, Prior and Zambrano have to be great. But they shouldn't make it any harder on them by weakending the lineup any further. Another 5th starter isn't going to help this team.

So he didn't sign? are you talking about corey? i'm guessing olney was talking about a trade. patterson would be crazy to not sign, wouldn't he? Oh wait, now I get it. I thought Damon hadn't signed and had until Tuesday to decide, but you're saying that was the tactic the Yanks used.

So he didn't sign?

I don't see why its nauseating. People aren't just making up stats. They are using stats that have been shown to be far more reliable describers and predictors of production than tired old cliches. And it's not true that people are relying exclusively on them. People have seen Jones play. He's a known commodity.

This is interesting. While I don't find it very probable. What kind of deal could be swung with the BoSox for Manny. I would say it would take a lot, but it may be worth a lot to get one of the best hitters in the game today. Realistically, my idea for the trade would be: Cubs get: Manny Boston gets: Patterson, Williams, Wellemeyer, and at least another ML ready prospect. I still dont know if that is enough for Boston to bite. They would still have a hole at shortstop, so they might ask for Cedeno as well. The money involved obviously is not equal as well. In conclusion, it's going to be difficult and expensive to trade for Manny. Would Tejada be cheaper? I don't think that's realistic. First off, you'd probably have to add Murton to the list (and with Manny and Jones in the corners for the next 3 years, you might as well). You'd have to include some bullpen arms as well. You would have to give them enough to convince them to pick up some of Manny's salary.

Unfortunately all the focus was on Furcal at the time.

The Cubs don't care about OBP and SLG, Walker's biggest strength. And they've been focusing on defense this year, Walker's biggest weakness. I think they want him gone. It's just like when they focused on chemistry last year and forced guys out no matter their production.

I think it's unreasonable to think they'll get much more than the 19 wins they had against those two teams last year. They've done no better than tread water against much of the rest of the league. I think 82-85 is a realistic, and 90 would be close to best case scenario, as it stands now. And I think they were a 86 win team last year and they have improved upon that team. Except they were a 79 win team and the improvements have been marginal at best.

I think it'll either really hurt the team, or just slightly hinder them as they overcome with great pitching (or some magical offensive addition). There's almost no chance it works out really well, because we know how good Jones is and the peak of what he can bring to the table, as well as the likelihood of that peak. He might not be the worst RF in the game. But he won't be better than mediocre, at best.

I think it's unreasonable to think they'll get much more than the 19 wins they had against those two teams last year. They've done no better than tread water against much of the rest of the league. I think 82-85 is a realistic, and 90 would be close to best case scenario, as it stands now.

Move them for what? A defensively-minded 2B is my guess. Yup, so we can have an even weaker lineup. That is Neifi's job to lose.

Move them for what? My best guess is a 4th OF, but I won't rule out a 5th starter.

You know, that is something that's been in the back of my mind for a while, but I haven't really thought much of it. I was convince Jones or something similar would be the RF next year. And I've always doubted Murton and Cedeno will get a chance. I think Hendry will either trade Cedeno in a Tejada deal (which I'm fine with), and therefore keep Murton, or trade Murton in a LF deal, and keep Cedeno. The Cubs love to have depth at the mediocre position.

That was the same BS line in 2004, they went from 88 to 89 wins. I'd say the odds are very strong the Cubs are at 89 wins or below. Again, define good chance. You can call it BS but I don't think it is. As it stands now they very good chance considering how how bad the Astros and Cards offseason has been. Hopefully the Cards will turn things around. What do the Cards and Astros have to do with the Cubs chances of 90 wins? They did pretty well against those teams head to head last year and still only won 79. If STL and HOU fall back this year then that improves their chances to win the division, but not get 90 wins.

It's easy enough that 14 other NL teams got more production out of RF last year, and I'd say it'll easily be 10 teams this year. If Hendry was blindsided by a lack of supply, it's his own damn fault.

Depends on how the Tejada deal does down. With Tejada at short and Walker at 2nd, I think this could be a top 5 offense, possibly top 3 with a little luck. Suddenly you have a legit 5 hole hitter. You have a legit 2-5 actually, and Jones, Murton, Barrett could be a good 6-8. Pierre will be okay. I don't expect a resurgence, but he will be good enough to not handicap that very solid 2-5. The reason this offense is going to be bad is because Walker is not going to hit, Neifi will, and Jones will be a 5 hitter.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=2267243 Sums up exactly what is wrong with this boneheaded backasswards management group. They are so bullheaded dead set against anything resembling objective analysis that they still live in the fantasy world that a 31 year old player can have upside, or that prolonged repeated lackluster results are due to something other than the simple fact that this is exactly what this player is.