goonys evil twin
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Everything posted by goonys evil twin
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Twins Sign White
goonys evil twin replied to RockTheIvy's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2268838 1 year $3.5m over 3 year $15m when the guy who got the smaller contract is going to outproduce the longterm deal. -
If I had to guess, I'd say it has a lot to do with the whole "he's just a little hurt, he's injured, there might be an elbow, no he's fine, he should be back soon, it might be another couple months, we don't know what's wrong." The way the Cubs handled it, it could be perceived by some that they were questioning Prior's toughness and wanted him to just fight through it.
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Many of the players are overpaid mediocrities who should thank their lucky stars this staff is around to both pay them as well as they do and play them as often as they do. I'm guessing many younger players are growing sick of the Cubs. Murton is playing the good little boy right now, but most organizations that still rely so heavily on the good ole boy network and service time over achievement eventually start to lose their most quality young people.
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Tejada is 29 and will be 30 this year.
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2B isn't the most obvious place for him to move. SS move because of decreased range, 2B still need range. I'm thinking 3B or LF. Regardless, once you move him out of SS, the premium you pay for production at SS is more than you should pay for production at 2B. You don't trade young top 10 pitchers for a guy you might have to move in a couple years. I hate when other people post "I have a source" stuff, but I'll do it anyway. Take it with a grain of salt. I would do the same if I were in your position. I have a source I respect who tells me that Mark Prior absolutely hates everything about the Chicago Cubs organization. It's almost a 100% sure thing that he's leaving as a free agent the very instant he can. You could be looking at Tejada for four years versus Prior for three years. Obviously, I don't know this for sure. Just something to consider. Well, that would certainly change things. I'd just get rid of the entire front office and upgrade to a real group of baseball executives. Wait, I'd do that anyway.
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He's jewish? Oh wait, sight, nevermind.
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2B isn't the most obvious place for him to move. SS move because of decreased range, 2B still need range. I'm thinking 3B or LF. Regardless, once you move him out of SS, the premium you pay for production at SS is more than you should pay for production at 2B. You don't trade young top 10 pitchers for a guy you might have to move in a couple years.
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Jeter is 31. He's not the player he was at his peak. He probably shouldn't be playing SS right now, as is. And as he gets closer to his mid 30's, he really should be moved. Tejada is better. But he'll be 30 this season, and is past his prime. He's still good, and going to be good for a while. But I could see him declining in the next couple years. And he might have to start thinking about another position as well, making his offensive production much less impressive.
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Prior and Hill for Tejada, Bedard, and Markakis. Bedard, Murton, and Gallagher for Zito. Would you do that? I don't know enough about Markarkansasis. But first blush would be no. Would he be able to start in LF this year at 22 with Dusty in town? If I trade Prior or Zambrano, I want an equivalent position player, under 28, who is not a free agent next year. If I get a Zito/Tejada package, it depends on the rest of the deal. Zito is a nice middle of the rotation guy. He's not an ace and never will be, but his lefthandedness and early success will give him a premium in his next contract. I would have to get a guarantee that Tejada will not void his contract or ask for a trade. I would have to be reasonably certain I could sign Zito to a fair deal, and not a 5/60 type contract.
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In the end, we're getting the best shortstop in baseball and a 28 year-old former Cy Young winner who is a legitimate #2 starter (and more durable). Yes, we're giving up Prior, but we're also acquiring these two players without giving up Murton, Cedeno and perhaps Pie if he's taken out of the A's deal. I'm not saying we should trade Prior (I don't want to), but if we're going to, I thought this was a deal that might allow us to somewhat replace Prior while still acquiring Tejada. Beane doesn't have to trade Zito, so you'd probably have to give up more than necessary. t Well, you have to take into account what they get and what they give up. Remember, Zito is a year from free agency. If the Cubs are afraid of paying Prior and Zambrano in a couple year, how does Zito solve that? I'd trade Prior for Zito and Tejada. The question is what else is dealt. "Perhaps Pie" isn't good enough. He definitely has to come out of that deal, because the Cubs OF still sucks and they need some quality prospects.
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Bedard isn't really all that impressive either. He's 3 years older than Jerome Williams, and his major league numbers aren't any better. He does have a nice minor league record, but is it any better than Rich Hill's? Probably a little. But seriously, if Bedard, Hill and Williams battle for a spot, do you see a clear-cut distinction? If I'm dealing a pre peak, pre free agency, top ten pitcher, and getting back a post-peak top 10 position player, I need more than a Bedard to sweeten the pot.
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Damon Signs with Yankees
goonys evil twin replied to E.J.'s topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
He's back to the unfrozen caveman centerfielder look instead of Jesus. But I never saw Jesus as cro-magnon in the first place. -
You're right about giving up too much for Zito. Pie probably wouldn't be necessary, since they're already getting Bedard and Hill. But the Cubs do get more than just Tejada for Prior. They also get Bedard, who they spin to the A's. But you have to take into account what they get in the end. They get Tejada and Zito. You have to weight what you give up with what you get. Bedard is never really theres, no matter how they file the paperwork. Prior for Tejada is too much. And all those other guys for Zito is too much. If you want to say Prior for Tejada and Bedard is equal, and Bedard and all the others for Zito is way too much, it doesn't really make a difference. But Tejada and Bedard are not enough for Prior. If you trade Prior, you better get a superstar position player under 28 who is not close to free agency.
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I have to ask this question, it's been bugging me since I read this. Are you saying Not trading Prior would be a huge mistake. (insinuating he's got to go) Or Trading Prior would be a huge mistake, so I'm not doing it.
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Prior is the most valuable piece in that puzzle. He's worth more than just Tejada or Zito alone. If the Cubs are losing Prior, Pie, Hill, Guzman, Walker and Dopirak, that is too much. Pie, Hill, Guzman, Walker and Dopirak is a lot to give up for a good but apparantly plateaud soon to be 28 year old lefty that is just 1 year away from free agency. Prior is clearly the better of the two pitchers, even though he's less accomplished. After a blazing start to his career Zito has hit a bump and had his two worst seasons back to back. But he's still going to make a killing in free agency. So anyway. Prior for Tejada? Cubs need to get more back. Pie, Hill, Guzman, Walker and Dopiral for Zito? Cubs giving up too much. Take one of those first three prospects off the table and we're talking. Remember, Oakland is losing Zito after this year. I don't see any other team trading them 3 prospects of the Pie, Hill, Guzman caliber plus a good cheap veteran like Walker and a highly touted but enigmatic prospect like Dopirak as a sweetener. Dope is the type of guy that would be featured in a lot of trades. The team that gets him will talk about how "just a year ago" he was their top prospect, and he's only had a minor setback.
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You are right, which is why I'd structure Prior's deal differently. He's guaranteed $2.5m in 2006. He supposedly can make as much as $5m in arbitration if he takes that option. So, I say offer him a deal that guarantees him $6m in 2006, then $9m in 2007, and $10m in 2008 (that's $25m guaranteed. If he just went to arbitration every year he might make 5/8-9/10-11 ($10m is about the max for arby players now, but what will it be in 2008). But then you add a kicker, the Cubs get a team option for $12-14m that 4th year (taking away his first free agency year, but still leaving him plenty of time to sign a pre-30 once in a lifetime deal if he develops as expected). Maybe throw in a buyout if they don't pick up that last year.
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It's not really additional. You have to pay them a lot either way. Maddux is coming off the books next year. Some $350,000 kid will be in next year's rotation. You have to budget for around $8-10m for Prioir and Zambrano next year anyway. It's a risk on the team's part because you are guaranteeing them money. But that is how you can possibly get them to accept less than the max they would get on 1 year deals. You structure the deal so they get a little more up front than they would expect, and a little less down the road than they would get if gambled and went one at a time. I brought this up to counterbalance the notion that the Cubs won't be able to afford both Zambrano and Prior in a couple years. If you trade them so you can avoid paying them, than you don't spend half the offseason overpaying for crap like Rusch, Jones, Perez and others. You don't offer Furcal 5/50 if you are afraid of getting burned by a 3 year deal to Zambrano or Prior.
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There's room for negotiation either way. You lock up Zambrano to void his first free agency year. Another thing the Cubs like is "cost certainty". MacPhail has talked about it from the beginning. They like to know what they will be paying. 3/30 was just a general statement to point out that the Cubs are not risking having to pay either of these guys $14m per year anytime soon. In reality you have to give Zambrano a little more since he'd be a free agent sooner, and could get away with a little less with Prior since he's got more time to go (and he's had some injuries which will cast doubt). If either of these guys was a free agent you could be certain they'd be getting 5/65-70 easily. But the point of discussion is they aren't free agents, and aren't all that close either. Guys like that first taste of security. It's cool to make $2-3m a year, but you can't really retire on that at 26 if your arm blows out (you could, but not with the lifestyle they want). Getting a guaranteed 25-35m when all the team is obligated to do is sign you for 1 year at a time is what causes players to sign before free agency all the time.
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They aren't even at free agency yet. Sign them to 3-year deals now. If you can give 3/15 to Jones you can give 3/30 to both of these guys. Most likely both get 5-7 years deals that possibly approach $100 million. 3 & 30 was good money 10 years ago. Um, neither one of them is a free agent. You give guys deals like this because they want that first taste of security, and it still leaves them plenty of opportunity to get that big free agent deal. Neither would come close to averaging $10m a year over the next couple years via arbitration.
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They aren't even at free agency yet. Sign them to 3-year deals now. If you can give 3/15 to Jones you can give 3/30 to both of these guys. I wouldn't do that if I were them (Prior+Z)....not with the money that is being thrown around this off season unless they REALLY want to remain in Chicago. I think it would be a very good idea for Hendry to do just what you said though...at least try. Why wouldn't you do it? Zambrano won't reach free agency for 2 years, Prior, for 3. Neither will come close to making $10m this year. They might get $8-10 in 2007 on arbitration, if they have great 2006 seasons. So, you offer them deals that pay them $7m in 2006 (more than they'd be expecting). In 2007 they'd be guaranteed $11m, and in 2008 they'd get $12m. Zambrano would possibly get more than that in 2008, his first year of free agency. But he'd be making more now and getting security. It's a no-brainer for Prior, he's not giving up any free agency time.
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They aren't even at free agency yet. Sign them to 3-year deals now. If you can give 3/15 to Jones you can give 3/30 to both of these guys.
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Offer A I can deal with and add to. Offer B shouldn't even be in the room, let alone on the table.
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It'll cost you a $9m and a $3-4m pitcher to make up for the loss.
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It's absolutely freaking ridiculous. Pitchers peak later than hitters. Miggy is past his prime. He's still good, but will be in decline shortly. He's also free to opt out of his contract if traded, making him even less valuable. He's also just a few years from possibly having to move positions, where his offense is not that impressive. I love Miggy. I'd deal a lot for Miggy. But I'm not trading a top 10 pitcher, who still has years before peaking, and reaching free agency, for a top 10 position player who is past his prime, and can opt out of his contract, and might have to switch positions within 3-5 years, making him far less valuable. It's stupid to even consider a trade of these guys unless you are getting an under 28 pre free agency superstar position player.
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Miggy. I have very little interest in Manny. His cost would prohibit the Cubs from finding a replacement for Prior. But I wouldn't trade either because you'd have to replace Prior and you wouldn't be able to.