toonsterwu

Mildly surprised that Zapata got the bump. That said, he's the outfielder playing the best right now. The last reports I have on Yao-lin Wang goes something like - throws 92-94 with decent late breaking action on the fastball, average slider, below average change. There isn't much projection in him - his body likely won't get bigger (good weight that is). Reminds me somewhat of former Indians farmhand Sung-Wei Tseng. A couple posters elsewhere are quite high on him. I hope like heck that he succeeds as a starter, but he's fairly down on my list right now, through no fault of his own. Starling Peralta and Ben Wells (took me awhile to find his fangraphs page, as they had it as Sterling) have significantly higher ceiling. Luis Liria and Willengton Cruz arguably have higher ceilings, and are arguably close in polish to what Wang is right now. Cruz is the rare lefty in the system that has more than mid-end of the rotation potential, if his body matures and he adds velo. That would push Wang outside of the top 20 for me. I'm not sold I would put him top 30, but I haven't really worked a list past 20 in a thought-out fashion.

Has anyone seen Willengton Cruz pitch? There's a lot I like - he throws strikes, but more importantly, he knows how to throw good strikes. There's "pitchability" - he seems to know what he wants to do and attacks. There's solid looking secondary stuff. Watching him yesterday, though, I kept wondering if he was going to have elbow problems. I gotta take a look at it again, but it sure seemed ... extraneous.

Well ... the final line won't look good. McNutt left that one up. Just a mistake pitch. He had been getting the pitches down a bit more. That said this is a good work for him.

Cubswin - according to fangraphs game logs, Vitters walked twice on 4/13 and 7/10. Very pleased to see McNutt put up a good start. There's a lot of general prospect followers that seem fairly down on him. It's been a lost season in terms of development, but he still has flashed plus fast/plus breaking ball to go with occasionally showing a much improved changeup. I think he was overhyped last year, but I think he's almost a bit under the radar now. Honestly, much as I've never been high on Ha, despite his poor numbers, I'm sort of impressed that he seems to be showing a better approach and seems to be learning. Still have my doubts on his bat.

On the surface, there's a decent chance that Carrillo's performance in AA has been fairly lucky this year. The bigger issue for him right now, IMO, is that he's viewed as an organizational arm. In 2010, he was shifted down to Daytona, a level he had success at in 2008, because they needed someone to fill a role. He probably won't get shifted down to the A ball ranks again, but he's been bouncing between AA/AAA, and as better guys come up, age and mediocre stuff may be issues that face him. Perhaps he needs to make a Hung-Wen Chen type deal with the org (I didn't realize that Chen's deal with the Cubs to go to Mexico was that he would go provided that, once the Mexican League ended, he would be guaranteed a starting or closing job somewhere in the org - AzPhil reported on this recently).

I'm still not huge enough on Lee to think he's a top 20 overall prospect, let alone top 10. At what point do we start acknowledging that, after April, he's been a fairly mediocre offensive player (roughly, .293/.350ish/.388), while still posting fairly high BABIP numbers (.350ish or so)? More importantly, at what point do we start noting that, month to month, his offensive performance has steadily declined? His defense still has a lot of cleaning up work to do, and for all his plus speed (and I haven't heard anyone call it plus-plus since his days in Boise), and his SB rate is fairly mediocre this year for a guy with plus speed (67.5% of the time). Look, I've never been the biggest Lee fan, but I will acknowledge that as a pure shortstop with loads of potential, he's got a chance to be a MLB player, and I think BA's midseason ranking (off the top, 23rd) was probably fair (and I imagine it might slip a tiny bit in their end of the season ranking). I'm just not seeing the production to justify a top 10 status. That isn't a knock on his talent. Martin Perez was knocked down a peg last year for his struggles, and everyone that saw him wasn't that concerned. The production simply hasn't been enough for me to think he's a top 10 type guy.

After AzPhil's report last week, I'll be very curious if there's any word on whether or not he was simply throwing just fastballs. I'd guess, with that many innings, he probably had to go to some secondary pitches, but not certain.

ah I completely forgot about Cruz. Yeah, he's definitely at the top of the list. Have there been new reports on Antigua's stuff? The latest I heard was still high 80's/low 90's on fb with decent movement, slightly above average slider, maybe above average change (or did i flip the two). My issue with ranking Antigua ahead of the rest right now is that, while his stuff is slightly ahead of the others, I still want to see how that stuff plays over a longer stretch as a starter. That said, by season's, could definitely see myself sliding Antigua solidly ahead of the others, behind Cruz. I think it's Cruz, and then the rest of the bunch. The guy I'm still most curious about is Graham Hicks, who I saw last year and was quite intrigued with his upside. I mean, on upside/projection, I think a case could be made for him to be 2nd on this list.

Depending on how Antigua finishes, he's definitely in that mix. Del Valle probably has a better fastball than all of them, so not sure if he qualifies in this discussion. Zach Rosscup has had himself a strong year. Graham Hicks probably gets in the discussion as well, due to projection. As of now, I think I would rank our lefty starters (the gap from top to bottom wouldn't be much) 1. Chris Rusin - Tops the list because the difference in stuff from top to bottom isn't much, and he's the safest bet to reach the bigs in some role. Not much has changed - still an end of the rotation/pen type. Will get his ground balls. 2. Jeffry Antigua - Giving him the edge over fellow A+ arms as he's got a slightly higher ceiling and shows a better ability to get ground balls. Was actually leaning towards slotting him first, so may change my mind on placement. A lot depends on how he finishes. 3. Zach Rosscup - This was a tough call amongst Harman/Raley, but Rosscup is a bit more projectable than both, and thus gets the slight nod. 4. Casey Harman - Polished, but low ceiling. Looks like another Rusin. 5. Brooks Raley - Feels like this is a bit harsh, but inability to miss bats is troubling. 6. Frank del Valle - Seems like he might have the highest ceiling. Is he a starter long run? 7. Austin Kirk - Feel like I should place him higher, but low ceiling and in Low A right now. His stuff isn't significantly better to jump him. 8. Graham Hicks - Probably the most projectable arm of the bunch. Honestly, I wouldn't have a problem if someone wanted to rank this in the reverse order either. It's that close from 1-8 for me. I don't think any of these guys crack the top 20, and at best, a couple crack the top 30, I think.

Fairly disappointed in how DJ LeMahieu is playing in Iowa. Still making contact, but he's slapping and spraying. At the end of this run in Tennessee this year, he was actually driving the ball fairly well. I just wonder if the call-up, and subsequent inconsistent AB's, hurt whatever development he was making. Watching Flaherty play 3rd, I think he has a shot to stick there, but he needs a ton more work. His instincts at the spot need development.

ouch ... Brett Jackson froze completely on a breaking ball on a 3-2 count, with me on 2nd and 3rd. He had a good battle with Broderick, looked like he wasn't expecting the breaking ball after being thrown the sinker and I think a 4-seamer the previous two pitches.

I like the reports on Jensen considerably more than I like the reports on Jacques.

Bad error by Flaherty leads to runs in the first for Memphis. Jay Jackson has a high pitch count as a result. Threw a fair amount of sliders in the first - doesn't seem to have much bite on it, but hard to tell. Did get a K on a slider, but it was Freddie Bynum. Still feel like Jay is better off in the pen, where he can let it rip a bit more. Trying to remember how he looked in Peoria/Daytona/Tennessee coming up, and I don't recall him being so ... not the best word choice, but he seems a bit rigid. Granted, it's helped bring down his walk rate, whatever he's been doing since getting to AAA. Brett Jackson showed solid arm strength and accuracy on a throw home, but the runner was stopped at 3rd.

I hate throwing cold water on a guy I'm high on, but is anyone a bit concerned about Struck's mechanics? I'm not a pitching mechanics guy, but it looks like it could use some polishing. The best comparison I can make is to a football QB. The ideal football QB mechanic comes lock and loaded after the snap, arms high (doesn't make a good QB, though, Rex Grossman had good QB mechanics). A guy like Byron Leftwich had a big windup. Struck pulls the ball down and back a tiny bit, before raising and whipping, and there's a bit of a cross-body action. The cross-body action isn't as bad as, say, Jay Jackson's was, but it does bother me everytime I see him pitch.

Over in Stark's writings on ESPN, it also notes that the Braves took a run at Marlon Byrd, but the Cubs weren't going to move him.

Wow. Cubs are spending. 4th round money for Jensen? I wasn't expecting that. Here's hoping it wasn't a case of a couple guys likely not signing, so they decided to give him more money. I am a big fan, but 4th round money seems surprising. As for Zych, I'm sort of in a, if he signs, okay. If not, I'm not worrying too much about it. He's got velocity, but fastball's inconsistent, and his slider is average at best, if not a tick below. Definitely could get better, but with his projection being the pen, eh, just not going to bother me if we lose him. If there's the money, would love to have him. Any confirmation on Scott's status?

I'm more in a gathering phase on those guys, as I haven't made any trips in the last month or so (not that way at least). I know a couple posters on Sickels (and I'm guessing they post at BCB as well, but I don't post there anymore) think Wang should be at the top. Personally, I have Wang at the back end (and I have personal bias there as I want him to succeed). Good fastball, average secondary stuff, but little projection. Makes me think of another Taiwanese arm - Sung-Wei Tseng, who eventually had to make a pen move. He's better than Hung-Wen Chen was (only comes to mind because there was a site hyping him up several years back). Liria's third for me. There's some projection there, the fastball's solid in the low 90's, the secondary stuff has a decent feel to it and seems like they have some above average potential. Top two, I go back and forth on. I like what I've heard on Cruz. Seems like the kid has a good feel, good pitchability, and there's projection on the fastball. I think the general feeling seems to be that Peralta's upside is a bit higher, though. At the end of the day, both guys are sort of "wait-and-see" guys as we're hoping they add MPH's onto their fastballs and become starters who can consistently hit mid-90's, but doesn't always happen. Edit: I mean, gun to my head right now, I'll go Peralta on account of his higher upside, followed by Cruz/Liria/Wang. _______ Yeah, I think name recognition is a big factor why they are propping up the Astros system. The general perception amongst prospect followers is that the Cubs system is far down from the end of last year. It's down, but I'm just not sold it's by all that much. Surprisingly, mrkupe gave Struck a B-. One of the rare times anyone makes a comment on Struck, despite my efforts to stir conversation there on him. I look at the two systems and I think it's close. I'll even go with their grades for the top 3 or 4 (Springer/Cosart/Singleton/Altuve if he's eligible). They are giving high grades to some lower level folks that befuddle me. Ovando as a B-? Seems generous. Not sure why Ovando is definitely a notch higher than, say, Reggie Golden (for them). I see a 4th OF in JD Martinez, but who knows.

I respect those guys opinions on the minors, but man, I think they are off on that comparison. They give George Springer a clear edge over Brett Jackson. Okay, I can buy that, even though I disagree with it. They give Cosart a clear edge over McNutt. That one, I have trouble buying having seen Cosart and heard reports, but okay ... I can buy that. mrkupe agrees that after the top couple guys, the Cubs system has better depth. I just don't buy that the top two gap is that much wider to carry the Astros system ahead. I mean, they are going guys like Mike Foltyniewicz, a very promising arm, a B- (Jeff Reese did). Folty's got a good fastball, but the reports I have this year suggest that his secondary stuff isn't showing well and he's been inconsistent. Sure, he's young and projectable, but I don't really think he's better than say, Starling Peralta/Wilengton Cruz/Luis Liria/Yao-lin Wang types by that much, if at all, and I was leaning to giving those 4 guys C level grades. I like Ben Wells better than Folty, and I was leaning C+ on Wells (though a couple of them were giving him a B- as well. After that? Altuve is going to lose prospect status (and I'm not huge on him either), and then you are in a wasteland area. I see the Astros system as (no Altuve) having 3 B+/B types, and then C+ from 4-9, and then C after that. I'm hard pressed to buy Delino DeShields Jr. as a B- right now, which an Astros fan suggested. Sure, he's young, but he K's too much for his skillset, and the hit tool isn't that elite. I'm not even propping the Cubs system up. I tend to think we're probably, in terms of system ranking, going to come in the bottom third (that said, with the intriguing young talent in the lower levels, I'm actually fairly intrigued/excited). They were saying that JD Martinez is clearly a better prospect than Ryan Flaherty. Just befuddling to me. I'm not even bashing the Astros system. It's improved, but geesh, I tend to think that's one of the five worst systems in the game.

Having a nice little discussion over on Sickels site with mrkupe and Jeff Reese about the Cubs/Astros comparison. I certainly am biased, but I still fail to see how the top tier of the Astros system gives them a clear edge over the Cubs system. Honestly, after the top tier of the Astros system, that's a pretty bad system.

I actually like Zeid a fair amount. I wonder if Houston puts him in the rotation or moves him to the pen.

You said it kid. Cosart is nice, but IMO Singleton's value comes more from perceived value than actual MLB skills. Kind of reminds me of Daric Barton. When you're all in like the Phils are, better to stay all in then go about it half-assed. I will say I like Singleton more than I liked Barton, though. With Barton, it was always clear that he wasn't going to hit for much power. With Singleton, I think I could envision some 20-25 HR seasons. I just think his power ceiling was overhyped, and for a corner IF prospect, that's a big deal.

You'd think they could get better than Pence for Cosart and Singleton. I know I'm in the minority on this, but I'm just not as big on Cosart and Singleton as others. Watching Singleton this year, I'm not real sold that this is some 30+ HR masher in the bigs. Maybe he develops some more, but I think his power ceiling was overhyped. The one time I saw Cosart, his secondary stuff was ridiculously inconsistent and looked really raw. As inconsistent as, say, McNutt, has been this year, I don't see the difference between McNutt and Cosart that some people are claiming. Cosart's fastball is better, but his curve isn't a consistent plus pitch yet. This isn't to say this is a bad deal for Houston. It's a solid deal. I just see some people wording this as a huge win for Houston, and since I'm not as big on those two as others, I'm just not buying that this is a huge win yet. I tend to think this was a deal that makes sense for both sides - Philly had other pitching prospects at a similar skill level, and Singleton was blocked enough, while Pence, while not a super-star, does improve their chances to win this year.

Can get his fastball up to 93/94 with decent-solid movement. Secondary stuff is raw, though. Not much projection with him.

Any chance Rusin could be successful in the majors? I doubt he'd be much worse than some of the crap the Cubs have run out there this year. Best case, end of the rotation starter, in all likelihood, barring some sort of stuff improvement that no one is expecting. It's probably more likely, as his stuff is fairly average, that he'd be in the pen, but with the Cubs situation the way it is, wouldn't surprise me if he got some starts like Casey Coleman did.

Stole him? Fautino de los Santos was viewed as highly as Gio, if not higher. de los Santos was coming off a filthy, filthy 2007 and was looking like a future TOR arm. Ryan Sweeney was an upper level CF who was close to ready. Sure, in hindsight, only Gio has panned out, so maybe it feels like a "steal", but giving two high upside arms up, and an upper level CF? That's hardly a steal. Furthermore, de los Santos and Sweeney both were in the bigs for the A's. Edit: The author also takes a shot at the Dempster deal, and Dempster has been worth his contract in the first three years. Whether or not he's worth it in his final year, don't know, but when viewing the contract overall, I'm fine with that deal. Sweeney was an upper level CF? I thought you were the minor league guru. This guy was half way to washed up by then. I'll give you Santos, he did put up good #s before the trade. Still a steal though. Huh? Sweeney was in AAA, unless I'm mistaken. I'm not sure what you are critiquing. That's as upper level as you can get. Also ... half-way to washed up at the time of the trade? He had fallen out of favor with the White Sox, but he was a 22 year old upper level CF coming off a decent year who was a strong defensive OF. Judging without the benefit of hindsight, I would hardly call a trade that gave up two high ceiling arms and an upper level CF who was ready for MLB duty of some sort a steal. Judging with the benefit of hindsight, not that this is any way to make a judgment on the deal, as it isn't, but in 2008 and 2009, Sweeney outperformed Swisher by himself (6.4 WAR to 4.5 WAR). He isn't that different a player from those two years, but Oakland finally started to realize that they couldn't keep trotting out such bad offenses and he went to the bench, which is where he is better off at. When you factor in Oakland's financial situation, this was a very solid trade for Oakland, as Swisher would've been gone at some point, as his cost continued to go up. They sold high, IMO, and got a good package for a solid player, a player I like a lot, but getting a good return is worth the move.