toonsterwu

The top 10 of the list has absolutely been decimated. Doesn't mean those guys aren't without hope, but I imagine 6 of those arms are probably outside of the top 20 for many of us (Carpenter, Jay Jackson, Simpson, Lopez, Cabrera, Reed). I thought Reed/Lopez were significantly over-ranked by Sickels last year, though. Understood the fascination people had with Lopez, never understood the high rankings considering how raw he was. Granted, for Sickels, 8-18 were probably close. All three upper level arms could still roles in the bigs. Of the three, I'm most intrigued with Cabrera right now. Despite some concerns about loss of stuff, last couple times I've seen him, he's been in the 90's while flashing with the slider. Carpenter's control is such a mess this year, I don't know what the issue is, but if he tightens that up, he could still be a back of the pen type arm. Between Cabrera and Jackson, Jackson might have the best chance to stick as a starter if he can find/improve his secondary stuff, but man ... haven't seen or heard much positive reports on the slider this year. Was at a game this year when someone remarked to me that they hadn't seen a good slider from Jay all game. Perhaps exaggerating a bit, but still.

I'm still not convinced that I'm definitely going to put Vogelbach/Maples in my top 10 (of the two, I think I may slot Maples at 10), but Dunston Jr.? Not sure he's going to be in an end of the season top 20 for me. If so, he'll crack the back end, that 15-20 area where I am tempted to go with a lot of upper level relievers.

I was just cycling through the pen arm names in AAA.

They've already shuffled the staffs a fair amount in AA/AAA. Rhoderick's made a beeline up, but he probably needs more time, and I'm not sure Dolis is all that deserving of a promotion yet. Beliveau, perhaps, but Maine and Gaub are solid AAA lefties. Parker/Carpenter probably aren't going to be demoted yet, Berg's performing well.

Not a great game from Nick Struck, but a very solid start so far. Good to see him holding his own. I imagine that he might get some time in AFL to work on his secondary pitches, but not sure.

I think Marwin is having a very nice breakthrough season, but I'm hardpressed to ponder him for the top 10. His defense is decent-solid at short, but by most accounts, not really elite. Still seems a better fit for a utility label. Power is very debatable. I like him a lot, and have always hoped that he would breakthrough as the kid has tools, but it's hard for me to buy top 10, even in our system, even pre-draft signees, right now. If someone believed that he would stick at short, then I could buy top 20, but top 10? Not sure how I can get that to fit for my own perspectives, but to each their own.

Kyler looked fairly promising as power lefty pen arm. I actually wouldn't mind it if he got bumped up to Peoria later in the year, but I'm not sure if that's in the cards for him for now. If it wasn't for his age, I'd say take the time and see if he can be a starter, but considering his age, it might be better to move him faster as a pen arm. I actually keep forgetting how young Brian Smith is. Would really love to see him moved up to Boise, though. It's more a reflection upon the talent challenging him, but I wonder if Del Valle is our lefty starter with the most upside. Wasn't he clocked as a fairly solid low 90's in Peoria a couple games back? Wonder if Brett Jackson wouldn't be best served to sit for a game or two, if he is pressing.

Wells hasn't been great, but I've actually been fairly encouraged with his start to the year. He needs to get more consistent, because he seemed to be losing his mechanics at times, leading to high pitch count innings. But the upside is there, and he gets great movement on his fastball, which allows for a lot of groundballs. He's missing a decent amount of bats with raw secondary stuff, and assuming his secondary stuff improves, his K rate should get better as he climbs the ladder. Sure, I wish he was more dominant, but considering his age, I'm fairly pleased with his start to his pro career so far.

Antigua had an excellent outing today. Not real sure why things weren't clicking for him in Peoria, but he's been better in Daytona. Granted, SSS as a starter, with most of the work from pen duty. Watching Wells pitch, it's easy to see the potential, but consistency seems to be a big issue with him, as he'll jerk a pitch here or there on a fairly consistent basis, leading to high pitch counts. There's good natural movement on the fastball, though.

I imagine he was shifted to get him more AB's.

I don't really want to see Reed starting, but if the Cubs can get a decent return on Marlon to justify a deal, I wouldn't be aghast at Reed/Veteran FA starting if they felt Brett needed a bit more time in AAA (which, as of now, seems possible). I'm viewing 2012 as more of a rebuilding season, though, and if Brett isn't ready, then I don't see the point of rushing him. If we wanted to be competitive from the get-go next year, then no, Reed/FA vet isn't exactly the path to take. I don't really see us spending on 2nd ... but Barney feels like an over-achieving utility player, and it's debatable if Flaherty can handle 2nd on a regular basis. If LeMahieu can handle 2nd as an above average defensive player, then that would work, as his bat plays better at 2nd than 3rd for me. All that said, the reason my ideal would be to find a 2nd base top of the order hitter is because I don't really love Brett Jackson, long run, as a top of the order guy, and feel that we should have more power in RF, leaving 2nd base as the only other spot, barring Castro going to 2nd (which opens up short as the other spot). That being said, I'm also aware that the Cubs may plop Brett Jackson at the top of the order.

I'm not against this, but financially, other priorities have to come first in terms of long run decision-making because the focus needs to be more on the future than the present. Furthermore, looking at the season OBP belies the fact that the number is propped up by a red hot April that was ... a bit fluke-ish, to say the least, and that his power numbers have dropped to a scary level overall. Issues at first and third have to take precedence. I am curious what happens with Soriano, not because I think he will be dealt, but more because, if Levine is right and the Cubs are willing to eat the money, I half wonder if they may just cut him to open up space. I doubt it, but it's crossed my mind. At some point in 2012, we will likely see Brett Jackson in CF. I'd like to see us move on from Marlon Byrd, as I think, if Brett isn't ready, you could go with a stopgap of say, a Reed Johnson and another veteran perhaps, but it wouldn't surprise me if the organization kept Byrd around to start the year. Are there a lot of teams that are going to want Byrd at 6.5 million to start the year? Not sure. He doesn't show a ton of power to compensate for his approach, and the speed has dwindled with age. If we eat any of Byrd's contract, then I don't see the point of moving him (unless we got surprising quality in return). My ideal situation is to find a top of the order bat at 2nd, but with so many internal options that are close (Baker might be here, Barney, LeMahieu, Flaherty), I think they won't spend much on a MI. I would probably prioritize adding a SP over keeping Fukudome, though.

eh, probably a bit different from Todd. I can't think of a great comp (ceiling-wise), but he's more athletic than Todd, but I'll be surprised if he ever shows Todd's level of pop. It's easy to forget that Todd had a healthy .15 ish ISOP for his career. I just don't view Logan's power ceiling like that, but who knows. I was going to say a more athletic Fontenot, but didn't realize Fontenot actually had a very healthy ISOP (.143) for his career so far. Not the best comp, as I think he may have a slightly better approach from what I recall, but perhaps Mike Lansing-ish is a reasonable comp (granted, I guess that isn't a ceiling comp, but Walker/Fontenot's power seems more than I could even imagine for Watkins, but again, who knows).

Since I sort of skipped through that other thread, I am curious if you think Vitters approach as of now is conducive to success in the majors? Furthermore, I am also curious about how you explain that even Vitters has acknowledged that he needs to have a better approach at the plate. And ... it isn't limited to "internet experts". Scouts have said it, publications like BA/BP have said it. Maybe Vitters is unique and will be able to succeed with his current approach, but taking a dig at fans when almost all objective observers have suggested the same thing (that he needs to improve his approach) is ... odd.

In the end, it may look like an awful pick, but right now, it is way too early to tell for Simpson. He's simply not the same kid, physically, that he was in college, as his body was just so severely weakened. By most accounts, even now, he's not really back at full strength, relative to what he showed in college. Every indication is that Simpson is working hard. Now, if there turns out to be some arm problems, as some have speculated, that'll be cause for concern. I also wish the Cubs would simply shut him down and bring him back for AFL. It's far too early to write off Hayden, though. Even if you assume that the Cubs simply saw him on his good days in college, when he flashed mid-90's most of the game, and believe that the low 90's velocity that many others saw was more legitimate, he's simply not there right now and is, by most accounts, only topping out in the high 80's.

The exciting thing is that there's more to come behind those guys, with Penalver potentially coming next year. Hasn't AzPhil said that Amaya's glove is better suited at 3rd? I thought he said it somewhere, but can't find it right now.

I haven't heard enough on his defense at short this year to feel confident to make a specific statement, but it seems ... improved and decent. He's always been a toolsy kid who was looking for a position. The Cubs pushed him (he's awful young), and gave him enough AB's in the lower levels, so I'm taking a wait and see on his bat this year, but overall, he probably fits best as a versatile IF/OF utility type player if he gets a crack in the bigs.

He's on such a tear that it's somewhat ridiculous. Also hearing that his glove is actually playing fairly well at short. Not really a bet to stay there long run, yet, but if any of this power surge is legitimate, he would be an intriguing 2nd base option. But as good as hes been lately, my perception is that hes more Darwin Barney than anything. Comes down to how much of this power development is legitimate. He'll probably never be as good as Barney as a defensive player. It's still more likely, if not probable, that Watkins most likely scenario is as a IF/OF utility player, if he even makes it up, but I think he has a little better starting upside than someone like Barney (at 2nd base). Others have noted before that Watkins bat always showed well in practice, but it never translated to game power, so let's see if this is the start of something.

Assuming he shows a similar performance to this year, Garza's fine as the top pitcher on a NL staff. What's been impressive is that he's significantly brought down his HR/9 rate. I'm fine with Dempster as the number 2 for another year. If there was an upgrade, awesome. But after the poor start, Dempster's rates are fairly solid. Zambrano is better off as a 4th starter on the rotation. A dang expensive 4th starter, but salary is what it is right now. If we can get a solid mid-rotation starter, the front of the rotation, on paper, of Garza/Dempster/FA/Z would be solid. Wells command collapse has been disappointing, but Wells/Cashner and others would be fine as competition for the 5th job, and we could go grab a reclamation project/cheap depth option. Overall, not too concerned about the starting pitching for 2012. The bigger concern, as of now, is the lineup.

I think the thing that needs to be remembered about Austin Reed is that he was supposed to take some time in that there were mechanical issues to tweak and his body was going to physically mature.

The Cubs didn't seem to get much pitching in the draft, either. After Maples and Jacquez, there are maybe a handful of guys who are kind of interesting, but seemingly no one with those kinds of ceilings. Injuries have saapped pitching depth this year, too. Losing Whitenack to TJS hurt. McNutt's blister problem has been disconcerting, although he could finish the season strong. Simpson still doesn't seem to be fully recovered from mono, plus there have been whispers about his shoulder. that is why I didnt understand the cubs picking Baez when we could have gotten someone like Jungmann who will most likely move quickly for the Brewers. This I believe will turn out to be a big mistake. When you dont have pitching at the higher levels it makes no sense not to draft college pitching especially when good ones are available. I get that the draft is not an exact science and that the cubs decided to target overslot highschool guys. But jesus did we really need to draft 3 catchers in the first 16 picks in comparison to 4 pitchers? I didn't want Jungmann personally, but I think with the first pick, you have to draft the best guy on your board, and not necessarily the guy that moves the fastest. If those two aspects come together, then awesome. That said, the pitching depth in the upper levels should stabilize a bit next year as the shakeups of this past season settles down. It's possible, if not likely, that we'll see McNutt and Beeler in AA next year. Rhee's down enough to draw intrigue again, and you fit in a lefty like a Rosscup in there, and that's a fairly solid AA rotation. AAA will likely have some arms of intrigue in Jay Jackson (saw the velo in the 90's a couple outings back, so still think he could make the shift to the pen - my hypothesis on his last 2 years has always been that he focused so much on improving his control that he lost the touch on his breaking ball and I wonder if a shift to the pen will help), Alberto Cabrera (stuff looks to be there, can he tighten up his control, as he did in his 2nd go around of AA), perhaps Nick Struck (I wouldn't mind if new management shifted him back to AA). Guys like Casey Coleman, Andrew Cashner could be in the upper levels, and much as they aren't exciting, Rusin/Raley are fine for upper level starters that might fill stopgap/end of the rotation type roles. At least, entering 2012, I think the pitching situation throughout the system will look a bit better, with only one spot looking somewhat concerning right now (Daytona - unless some of the raw arms jump up, the current Peoria crew and the current Daytona crew that might stick in A+ again don't really excite unless guys step up in a big way).

He's on such a tear that it's somewhat ridiculous. Also hearing that his glove is actually playing fairly well at short. Not really a bet to stay there long run, yet, but if any of this power surge is legitimate, he would be an intriguing 2nd base option.

I would've preferred if they'd just have left the upper levels thin this year and let guys work their way up the ladder. Struck should've, at best, been in AA this year, and Beeler, I would've preferred him to go to A+.

I'll concede a couple of those, but come on. Future 5th starters and middle relievers aren't exciting. The Cubs farm system is like the team in 2008. Solid depth, but no one who will ever be regarded as a top player in baseball. Obviously we just produced Castro, which is great, but even in the early 2000s we had Wood, Prior, and Zambrano who at least had star potential. Right now, nothing super exciting, pitching or hitting wise. Even Brett Jackson, what's his ceiling, a Marlon Byrd type career? The young arms in the lower levels are actually fairly exciting. Sure, attrition up the ladder will move many of those guys off a level of high intrigue, but there are upside arms in the system. The Cubs have also pushed a couple fairly intriguing guys in Nick Struck and Dallas Beeler far too fast. Both those guys have solid mid-rotation potential. The pitching side of the organization is fine. It's not elite, but it's average, with several good high upside pieces (Wells, Peralta, Cruz, Reed (way too early to write him off since he was supposed to be a developmental project), Liria, and a few others), but far away, a few intriguing upper level chips (Struck, McNutt, Beeler at the top), a couple scattered pieces here and there (Rhee has shown enough to get back on the radar, saw Alberto Cabrera fire low-mid 90's with a nasty slider (so I'm not as concerned about his stuff), and some solid bullpen possibilities.

Raisin got in a question in Callis' chat today: Other Cubs related comments: