toonsterwu

He's putting together his best SIERA season and best xFIP season for his career. While I still view 2012 and 2013 as more rebuilding years (with 2013 as a possible playoff push year), it'd be nice to have a decent rotation so that young arms aren't overburdened and rushed up. Is the possibility there that he will decline? Without a doubt, but I think it's a worthy gamble to see if he will accept an adjustment/extension (or decline his option and sign him down for 2 years). We already need to find one mid-rotation starter for 2012/2013 (with Garza slated in the top role). Letting Dempster go would open the need to find a 2nd one when there are major uncertainties with Cashner, and Wells, if he continues the way he has the last 2 months, likely getting a bit expensive for his skill level. Add in the intangibles, and an extra year on top of 2012 isn't that bad an idea, IMO. I'd be wary of an extra 2 years, but could be open to an option year of sorts that depends on work load and performance.

Well, that brings forth a whole different issue - does one rank for how one likes the players, or does one try to rank according to some generalized perspective on skills/ability by accounting for numerous factorss such as risk and value? I tend to always lean towards the latter a bit, but everything is subjective. Anyhow, I understand where you are coming from. We just have different approaches to ranking guys.

I see Sandoval got the start instead of Willengton Cruz. For the life of me, I can't remember what Sandoval throws. Anyone recall? Hopefully the guy posting all those game reports from Boise will show up and have caught the game. For some reason, I was thinking that Sandoval was topping out low 90's, with the general feeling that he won't add much velo and his secondary stuff is too raw (for some reason, I had written a note down about him where I said that he might be one of those guys that doesn't advance too far up the system due to limited stuff), but I'm not certain right now (and not certain why I wrote that note).

You think Price's stuff is better than Kline's? I actually like Price's overall package a touch better (due to his ability to attack the zone and throw strikes) if his stuff carries as a starter, but I tend to think Kline's stuff is a notch better than Price's. He doesn't have Price's 4-seam velo, but he gets nasty movement on the fastball, and I tend to think Kline's breaking ball is, overall, better than Price's. I'm not real sure that either guy has that much physical projection left. I'll be honest, I'm biased to UVA guys, but there's times where I watch Kline and I think he's better off in the pen where his control concerns are covered up a bit better and he can just let his fastball run. Sort of akin to ... Archer .. in some respects. Of course, he has been in the pen, so maybe he can fine tune his control enough. I probably haven't seen Appel as much as you guys. My general feeling is that I love his ability, but I'm not completely sold that he's an ace level arm. That said, it could be a measure of me not seeing him as much, as Appel seems to have the package needed to be a top of the rotation starter.

Still toying around with my list, but I sort of like my top 15 right now so I figured I'd post it to get some feedback. Tossing on some grades as I planned on posting it at Sickels and everyone loves grades over there. 1. Brett Jackson, B+. 2. Javier Baez, B. 3. Matt Szczur, B-. 4. Trey McNutt, B-. 5. Dae-Eun Rhee, B-. 6. Dillon Maples, B-. * quick thought - I'm really somewhat tempted to slide Rhee up to 3rd. 7. Ben Wells, C+. Getting the GB's, still love his ceiling. I believe the secondary pitches will develop. Tempted to go a half grade higher on Wells. Personally still prefer him to Maples. 8. Josh Vitters, C+. 9. Marco Hernandez, C+. I'm not sure I love putting him this high, but his ceiling as a potential starting caliber shortstop who has above average offense for the position is tough to ignore. 10. Ryan Flaherty, C+. 11. Welington Castillo, C+. 12. Jeffry Antigua, C+. Going back and forth on Antigua/Castillo order. 13. Robert Whitenack, C+/*. I could go a number of ways with Whitenack and still find it believable. 14. Jae-Hoon Ha, C+. 15. Dan Vogelbach, C+. Realistically, the difference from 7 to say, 30, isn't huge in the system right now and I think you could argue for guys in a number of ways.

I like Price a lot, but I do wonder if he's the type of guy who's stuff won't carry that well with him as a starter. He also needs to get a third pitch going, as I don't recall seeing much beyond fastball/breaking ball (that said, he hasn't really needed it). What I do like is that he throws strikes and attacks the zone. If his stuff carries well as a starter, I could easily see him as a top 10 pick. Kline has different concerns from Price. He gets a bit wild at times, but I think his change up is a bit more advanced than Price right now, and he gets a lot better natural movement on the fastball. He also has to build up some arm strength, but the control is the big issue for Kline to make it as a starter.

Meant to ask you before, but why did you leave him off your rough top 30 list, going in favor of Yao-lin Wang and Willengton Cruz? I'm having a tough time finalizing my list because I wish some of these young arms were having better performances, but I still think Peralta's ceiling gets him ahead of Cruz/Wang, and probably Zych, who I'm not huge on.

I think he is in the conversation for top 20. The thing that Raisin pointed out was that his ceiling isn't, say, as high as Amaya's. How much of this 2nd half power is real? I'm working through my list and have him roughly in that 20-25 range right now. As a side note, I think some of us felt that he was overhyped by the Cubs developmental people. IIRC, they were the driving force behind his high placement in a BA ranking a few years back. The power is a big issue. It won't be elite, but he has to have enough power to maintain the intrigue because he strikes out a fair amount for a guy with his limited offensive skillset.

The hard part I have in ranking this system is this - I'd like to push some of the upside guys higher than the floor guys (relatively speaking), but I wish some of them were doing a bit better. Peralta's young, but you'd like to see some more consistent flashes of the potential. Cruz/Liria have been too inconsistent, and Wang is arguably doing better than those two, but his ceiling isn't as high, IMO. Another issue I'm running into is that some of the lower level guys may be mildly more intriguing than some of the upper level guys, but is the difference enough to justify giving them higher rankings?

Not to drag this too far off-topic, but I'd be surprised if Demp is gone after 2012. It feels like a situation where things could get worked out. I don't think Randy Wells should be expected to be more than an end of the rotation guy this year, but to be fair to him, I wonder how much the injury hampered his first few starts back. He's really settled down the last month and change, looking like the solid starter he was the last 2 years. The depth at AAA should be a bit better next year, with more intriguing arms for stopgap callups than the retreads this year. Coleman/Struck/Rusin all are close. I think Cabrera should be moved to the pen, but he could be given another lifeline as a starter. Jay would be nice to keep around there, and I do like him, but I don't think it's as big a deal as it would've been if the situation was akin to this year. AA should be fine (from an intrigue perspective) next year as well, at least, as of now, on paper. McNutt/Rhee/Antigua, and there's a chance Whitenack could be there late in the season.

He'd definitely be a top 3 or 4 arm, off the lists of FA's that I've seen. I'd actually be interested in giving him an adjustment/extension to see if we can gain a bit more flexibility this year, but the most I'd do is two and an option. I think he might take it as well - he's indicated he likes it here for his daughter's sake. He's a good clubhouse guy and one of the few guys, it seems, that's noted as being a strong leader amongst the players. Even if his performance deteriorates a bit, I think it's worth it to keep him around ... if the price is right (I'd say roughly an 11 mil AAV, maybe squeeze it to a 12 mil AAV, nothing more, so roughly looking at a 2/22-3/36 (2012 being the first year) type situation as being something I'd be okay with).

Ha, I'm hoping that Koyie is moving on as well, just wouldn't rule anything out. I don't know if you protect a guy like Marwin Gonzalez. I think you've got to make some tough decisions, and I'm not sure Marwin is the type of guy that gets plucked up. There's a chance, as he's an up the middle player, but he doesn't have a top glove at short, and his bat isn't that great yet. To be fair, I'm not sure Clevenger is the type of guy that would get picked in Rule 5 either. Most teams have someone of similar ilk to Clevenger somewhere. I'm "protecting" him to get that 3rd catcher on the 40 that I like (as compared to using the other options). Jay's an interesting case. I want to be a big fan, as I was a huge fan of his when he was in the lower levels. But ... not many guys can get by just on a decent fastball with some velo. If he found his slider ... I do think Jay's the type of guy that could get plucked (some team may pick him to stick in middle relief early on, send him back to the minors in 2013), but unless the Cubs think he can make it as a starter, I simply think there's too many righty pen arms that should be viewed as being on a similar, if not better, level. I'd love to protect all of them if I could. I do wonder if Marwin can break out a bit more next year.

I don't think Clevenger is a "must", but he should be near the top of the priority list for the 2nd tier if Koyie Hill is let go. The only way he wouldn't be there is if the organization added another veteran catcher. Otherwise, we need 3 catchers on the 40, and I don't really want Chris Robinson/Michael Brenly/Micah Gibbs on there unless it's an emergency. I'm ambivalent towards Luis Flores on the 40. Don't really want it, but he's more intriguing than those three. Don't think Brenly should be in Iowa. At best, Tennessee. Wouldn't surprise me if they kept him in Daytona and went and find a minor league vet to slide into AA with Flores. Don't think Gibbs should be in Tennessee early in 2012 either.

I think Rhee has to be a definite protect. He's working deep into games, his stuff is showing well. This is the type of arm that some team may say, okay, we can stash him in long relief for a year and then send him back to the minors for work. Let's see, for me, guys that I think should definitely be protected Matt Szczur Josh Vitters Dae-Eun Rhee Actually, that's it. Those are the three guys I think should definitely be protected. I'd like to protect a few more, but realistically, the chances of protecting more than, say, 8 guys, seems fairly slim. Keep in mind that BJax will take a spot on the 40. If I had to pick a next 4, it'd be 1. Ryan Flaherty - With Baker likely moving on soon, if Flaherty can't start at a position, he'll fill a super-util/guy with some pop off the bench role. 2. Jeffry Antigua - He'd get my nod over Beliveau as he's got a legitimate chance to be a starting lefty. 3. Steve Clevenger - At some point, we're going to move on from Koyie, and Clevenger/Castillo can battle it out for the backup job, with the loser going to AAA. 4. Jeff Beliveau - He's not higher on the list for one simple reason - there isn't a pressing need for him. Look, he'll, in all likelihood, be protected, but with so many lefties in the upper levels, I just wouldn't put this as a higher priority than the other 3 in this tier. Some other names: Marwin Gonzalez - I've always been fascinated with him, but with Barney capable of filling the backup shortstop role, and LeMahieu/Flaherty are more useful supersub types as of now. Marwin needs more time. I'm not sold that he'd definitely been picked. We've seen semi-intriguing up-the-middle guys get passed over (Diory Hernandez comes to mind). Marcus Hatley - This would be my sleeper guess if I had to pick a guy off the radar that the Cubs might protect. His arm is strong, and he's got late inning potential. Jay Jackson - Do I want to protect him? Sure. That said, while there's been some bad luck, his inconsistent breaking ball makes this a tough move to make. If there's the spot, sure. Junior Lake - Wouldn't surprise me if the Cubs protected him as the talent is tantalizing. Still ... unlikely to be a pressing priority due to his struggles. He has improved this year, though. Rebel Ridling - Doesn't seem like the type of guy that gets picked. Ryan Searle - Hard to see anyone picking him, but if they do, best wishes.

del Valle got murdered. Well, Daytona got murdered. Same with Peoria. Kirk's really struggled the 2nd half. The GO/AO ratio has spiked, though, so may be a measure of bad luck. Nevertheless, a season with as bright a spot as he's had isn't exactly ending on a strong note. The del Valle call-up seemed a bit early as well. Tis one start, though. Would like to see a guy like that refine his secondary stuff at a level before getting a bump. For example, the Beeler bump up earlier in the year was bothersome in the same way.

I was a big fan of Carpenter ... but that's awfully high on a guy who's slated for pen duty and has had an insanely horrid year with his walks. He's still got late inning potential, sure, but it's awful hard for me to put a pen arm in a top 10, even a weak top 10, unless it's a truly elite guy, and I'm not sold Carpenter is an elite guy. He could be a very good closer if he gets the control settled enough, but it's just such a mess this year for him.

Thanks Nate. Figured he wasn't 98, as that seemed so ... out of the realm of what he was talked about. If you see this at some point, could you give us your feel on his secondary stuff? Only limited glances, so I couldn't be certain on how things looked. Do you think the comp that someone made about him (AzPhil?) once to Jeff Antigua is fair?

I'd be curious about Shoulders at C if it wasn't for the fact that we just signed several guys. Still, an intriguing idea, but I imagine they'd let him work at first for now. Really don't see him at 3rd. That's like Charles Thomas at 3rd, and Thomas was pretty bad, IIRC, when he dabbled at 3rd.

It's possible DeVoss could fly through the system, but with the depth of CF talent, I could see them further exploring him playing 2nd base, and I think he'd probably go a bit slower if coming up as a 2nd baseman. Hard to speculate without knowing who will be in charge of player development.

Wait, a comp for Ha in the field is Frenchy? I'm not sure I see that. Much as I had my doubts on it, everything I've seen and read this year is that Ha's a pretty dang good CF. I mean ... if it wasn't for the potential of Szczur, I think some of us might be chatting about Ha pushing BJax to a corner role, and BJax has improved defensively as well. As offensive players, I can see the comparison. In the field, not so sure anymore. A year ago, perhaps, when I had my doubts on Ha in CF. edit: Just to be clear, I know you said better in the field, but I think there's such a significant difference between Ha as a possible good CF and Frenchy in a corner role.

I know there's already been plenty of talk about letting Gretzky try out 3B/LF/RF... so that should help relieve the logjam for about 2 weeks. LaHair probably goes to Japan sometime in the near future as well. Wouldn't surprise me if a major league team gave LaHair another look. He's a different bat from when he was in Seattle, and is a better fit now as a possible bench bat. Wouldn't surprise me if he ended up in Japan, but I think someone will likely give him a ST look, at the very least.

Rebel Ridling's putting together his 2nd hot month of the year, something Justin Bour hasn't been able to do. Ridling's been better than I expected, and looks like a possible 1st/LF depth/corner big bat type of guy. Another guy who's had a strong month is Rubi Silva, and it'll be interesting how that carries over to Daytona (likely) next year. I know folks that have seen him in practice seem to think that he can uncork some more power as he develops, but like several guys in the system, he's got to cut down on the K's. If he can, he could be an intriguing 2nd base candidate (too deep in CF talent to think that he has a realistic shot to make any sort of dent, unless things go catastrophically wrong for many guys).

I really prefer Fleita gone, and fully expect him gone. Ricketts may want to keep him, but I can't believe any new GM wouldn't want their own player development guy.

A fair case can be made for both inside the top 30. I'm not sure if I'll have either, but legitimately, the guys are very bunched together after the top few that you could make arguments for a lot of guys to squeeze into the top 30.

A couple other guys I wouldn't rule out - a) Carlos Penalver - Only have the reports to base it on, but he certainly seems to have enough offensive potential that if he develops, it's something to consider. Feels like in Marco/Carlos we may have something akin to Starlin/Hak-ju again. b) Ben Wells - I'm disappointed he hasn't been better, but to me, he still has TOR potential. Is it possible that he becomes more a innings eater type (assuming he develops), a MOR type? Sure. That said, big, healthy kid, solid enough mechanically, good natural sinking action on his fastball, and secondary stuff, while raw, has flashed above average potential. Maybe he doesn't put it together, but the possibility is there. IMO, even with Maples, I think Wells' ceiling is still higher (and Maples arm action bothers me enough to think he might never be that ACE type upside that people hope for) Actually, Reggie Golden probably is a possibility. The power potential is still there, he's shown a better approach at the plate than expected, so if he cuts down the K's, he could be that slugging corner OF prospect.