toonsterwu

Off the top, and Raisin probably knows better than I do, but I think Amaya/Hernandez were both more expensive than Castro. IIRC, Castro was a 50K signing, I think.

Chris Antonetti is the Indians GM right now. I don't think he's going anywhere. There's some talk on Shapiro only because some of the rumors/speculation suggested that he, while not forced, was sort of asked to move to President, while he wanted to stay as GM. I doubt either guy is a legitimate candidate here, but who knows. ______ Interesting comments on Marco Hernandez. I had previously heard he had a good arm, but someone, I think AzPhil, kept suggesting that his arm was average. Curious if they said who missed.

I'd guess Bryan LaHair for minor league positional player of the year. Pitching wise, a bit tougher. I could see Jeffry Antigua in this discussion. Could see Beliveau. An argument could be made for Chris Rusin and Nick Struck.

AzPhil suggested that Clevenger would be up as well (and Dolis). I think everyone is going off Bruce Levine's article awhile back that said both those guys would be up after the playoffs. Personally, don't see a point to call them up now. Dolis, maybe you squeeze in an outing or two, since he's on the 40 anyways, but Clevenger isn't, and reality is, he probably gets 1 game and maybe a few pinch hit appearances in a call-up. Just don't think it's necessary. Tell him congrats, you'll have a shot at the backup job next year, go home and rest.

What's the innings/AB requirement for BA's lists again? Wonder if a guy like Starling Peralta was a just missed because he didn't stay there long enough. I'd guess Rosario and Zapata as the other misses, but I can't tell from the wording if the just missed guys are due to not enough innings/AB to qualify, or if they just missed as in they were 21-25 on the list.

I only brought up Ceda because I didn't know if this was a critique on how I was viewing Carpenter or how I was ranking him. Ceda was the only pure pen guy that I ever placed in the top 15 in recent years, to the best of my memory. Anyhow, I'll leave the rest of that (on Carp vs. Kurcz) alone. As for Cabrera, my hunch/what I've heard is that the organization wants him to succeed as a starter, but has long thought he would probably end up in the pen. His changeup simply hasn't developed enough, and he has had struggles against lefties as he simply doesn't have enough weapons to challenge lefties over multiple innings. Under Hendry/Wilken/Fleita, my guess would've been that they would've tried to keep him in the rotation in 2012, at least, at the start. I actually think he'll probably settle in relatively well as a starter in 2012 Iowa (just a hunch), but that doesn't change the fact that I just don't think he has the weapons, barring improvement this offseason, to be a long-run starter. My top three closer/late inning prospects (and I'll only utilize guys who have been in the pen the majority of the time, leaving Cabrera out, as he'd be in my top 3) ... I think I'd go Kurcz, Carpenter, and ... gut instinct on the third one, but Hatley. I've been troubled for awhile with Dolis' inconsistent slider. He has the makings of a guy who could be a dominant late inning arm, but I said it earlier in the year after seeing him, but something just feels off about him as a closer type of arm. I guess, when I see pen arms, I'd like to see them get guys to whiff a bit more. Could never put a finger to what felt off, though, as I knew going in that his slider was inconsistent. If the slider comes around, and he gets guys to whiff more, dunno. I'm not sure why I have Hatley third out of pen prospects who have been largely utilized in the pen so far. I know a lot of folks think that he's going to really take off in AA next year. The stuff's there to be a late inning arm. One of the rare times I'll go gut instinct on a prospect, but that might be a bigger reflection on my feeling on other guys than it is a reflection on Hatley. My sleeper pen prospect would be Charles Thomas, but he's too raw and too far away right now. I really like Frank Batista and I wouldn't rule him out of this discussion yet, but he has to be sharper with the slider to have a chance to be a late inning arm, IMO. I'm wanting to see another year of Beliveau in the upper levels before really believing that he's a possible closer level arm, and not more of a plus-LOOGY type, a guy who is excellent in situational roles and a possible setup type. I know a lot of folks are jumping on him as a possible late inning arm, like a lot of folks jumped on John Gaub in 2009. I'm not there yet, although I think 2011 Beliveau is better than 2009 Gaub. Just to be clear, in terms of rankings, of the guys noted above, the last time I worked on it, it'd be Kurcz (borderline top 20 right now), Beliveau (borderline top 20 right now), Carpenter (20-30 right now), Cabrera (20-30 right now), Dolis (borderline top 30), Hatley (borderline top 40). As a side note, as much as I've defended Kurcz as the guy that I think is the best pen prospect (late innings/closer) in the system, I can also see none of the guys in this system developing into a solid late inning arm. It's very possible that this group is a bunch of power-throwing middle-relief, at best, setup types, as I can find enough faults with each guy to think that they might not develop into a consistent late inning guy/closer.

Um, what? I don't see the Marlins doing this at all. They may act irrationally at times, but they are fairly good at assessing talent. 20 million in a weak FA market isn't going to buy as much value. LoMo is one of their building blocks. Doesn't mean I don't think they'd ponder moving him, but I don't think they'd do it for an end of the rotation starter, a depth OF, and 20 million to help pay off the Z contract. Now if you are suggesting that we pay 20 million on top of paying the Z contract, then I could see them ponder it perhaps, but that would be idiotic for us and MLB would never approve that version of the deal. Assuming a healthy Josh Johnson, Z would be, potentially, the 5th starter on that team (I'd take a healthy Josh, Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez easily over Z ... and probably Volstad as well)

1. I've never liked Carpenter as much in the pen as I did in the rotation, partly due to going to the 4-seamer more. I also never rate pen arms as highly as I do rotation arms, and that there largely explains why I don't think I would put Carpenter in my top 20. Last year, with everyone ranking Dolis high, I barely snuck him into my top 30, and I liked Dolis. (My intrigue with Dolis has gone down a bit this year, but I'll probably still keep him in the top 30). 2. The hope with Carpenter had always been that he could improve his below average control/command to the point where it was average. He went significantly backwards in that regards. Even getting back to his previous levels, however that translates to the pen, would mean that he would still have below average control 3. It's more than just the walk rate, though. In the past, when you watched him, he had some semblance of command. This year, when I saw him (which admittedly was early, prior to the demotion), things were bad. I'll agree that I think it's partly a byproduct of, as you note, shifting to a new role, but it is a concern. There tends to be excuses made for pen arms with poor control, since it isn't as big a factor as a starter, but for me, it's still troubling. 4. I still think you are underrating Kurcz's slider. Carpenter may have more power/velocity, but I'd take the slider with better movement, provided there's good velo behind it. I'll admit, I may have visual bias here, but having seen Carpenter's slider for 3 years running now, and seeing Kurcz's this year, I tend to think Kurcz's slider is above Carpenter's. 5. Wouldn't read too much into Carpenter's walk rate from 09 in A+/AA. What I recall, and it's been a couple years now, were that the batters at A+/AA were helping him out a bit, and I recall folks saying there simply wasn't enough of a book on him and guys were reacting. If anything, his walk rate in Low A that year was more in line with how he performed. That said, my memory could be shoddy. I think Kurcz not only had more control this year, but better command of his stuff. Walk rates are one of those things that are dangerous to read too much into in the minor league levels (both positive and negative, particularly in the low levels), but I will point out that Kurcz's walk rate out of the pen was under 3, and his command of his fastball/slider was good. It wouldn't surprise me if someone had the data/video if Kurcz's control problems as a starter came when he went to a non-existent change (okay, exaggerating a bit) and when he worked deeper into games, as guys had seen what he had. I'm too lazy to dig through the videos/stats to see, though. Look, this isn't meant to bash Carpenter. I hope Carpenter proves me wrong and he's the closer for this club for several years. I really like Carpenter. The main reason I have him in the top 20-30 range is that I typically don't rank pen arms high unless I really, really like them, they have a good track record, and I believe they have a high enough ceiling to justify it. But that's me. I believe the highest Cubs pen arm that I ranked in recent years was Jose Ceda, and he was a better prospect than Carpenter is out of the pen (IMO). I just tend to think, right now, I'll take Kurcz over Carpenter. But bringing up Cabrera brings up an interesting discussion. I'm not so sure Cabrera is definitely below Carpenter in my mind, as a pen arm. Problem is, he hasn't been utilized in that role. But ... Cabrera hits mid-90's as a starter (which Carpenter did as well), and I'm not so sure that Cabrera's slider doesn't have better movement than Carpenter's, while carrying solid velocity. For all the heat he took this year, the reason I've defend Cabrera a bit more than I have Jay Jackson (and I loved Jay Jackson 2 years ago, just loved his potential), is because I've seen Cabrera rip off nasty sliders with a fair amount of consistency. If Cabrera could just go full bore and reach back and let it rip ... could he be like Carpenter, and sit mid-90's and hit upper 90's consistently? I don't know, but it's an interesting thought to ponder, even though a lot of people seem down on Cabrera overall. Something to think about as we ramp up lists on prospects.

I think the a positive case scenario for Whitenack is that he's able to throw around mid-season, perhaps get some work late in the season. If he's showing well enough, I'd guess that he could get an AFL nod to prime him for more work and to get ready for 2013.

My ridiculously early, and pointless, gut feeling is that if Jokisch is the loser of the battle in AA for a spot (based off both of us thinking that it could be Searle/Jokisch/Beeler ... for all we know, Harman could figure into the mix), that he might be sent to the AA pen. AJ Morris as a starter? Hadn't pondered that, as I had worked it into my head that he would head to the pen. That's assuming, of course, that he is still with us when minor league season starts, as he seems like the type of average guy that may be borderline. If he is around, he could be an option as a righty starter in Daytona, as that unit is heavily lefty, the way we have it projected right now. He's going to be in his age 24/25 season, though, so I'm not against shifting him to the pen and perhaps pondering him in AA ... if he's around. I don't have a huge issue with Liria in A+, but I think he's better off in Peoria. I still wonder if I'm under-rating him, or under-hyping him, a tad. 90-93, gets up to 94/95, good slider, decent change, and decent performance this year, and yet, I can't crack him into my top 20, and don't think I'll get him into a top 25.

My hunch is either Jay Jackson is picked in Rule 5, or Alberto Cabrera is moved to the pen, opening up a spot for Raley in Iowa's rotation. Now, it's certainly possible he could move to the pen, as he might profile better in the pen anyways. My guess at the Smokies rotation to start 2012 would be Rhee, Antigua, McNutt with Searle/Jokisch/Beeler battling it out for the last 2 spots. I'm very interested to see what a new GM decides for the intriguing arms in Peoria/Boise. Assuming no one is "pushed" to Daytona that would be a mild surprise as of now (say, a Starling Peralta or Luis Liria), the options in Daytona look average to start 2012, something along the lines of Kirk/Del Valle/Loosen/Hicks/Rosscup/Harman. I guess it's possible Lorick is back in the mix there, but he really should be in the pen if he's still in the organization. Actually, too many lefties for Daytona, so a righty probably works his way into the mix there along with Loosen.

Okay, raisin probably phrased it much better than I did on this Carpenter/Kurcz thing. I accidentally skipped over the comment above. I can agree that if Carpenter's breaking ball was steadier and more consistent, then his ceiling is a tad higher than Kurcz. I just feel like right now, Kurcz's ceiling is close enough and his pitches are more consistent, that I would take him as the best pen arm in the system. But on upside alone, I can agree that Carpenter has slightly bigger upside (although as noted above, I think you guys are under-rating Kurcz's slider. I may be letting viewer bias impact me, but I feel like Kurcz's slider was better than Carpenter's in terms of "stuff/movement", but if Carpenter steadies his slider, then the ability to ramp it up into the upper 90's and having a 2seamer in his pocket would give him the notch in ceiling). And I'll add one last thing on this, as I feel like we're all going in circles about the same issues now - If Carpenter went to his 2-seamer, and his control settled down a bit to say, a level somewhat similar to last year, then I think this would be a far different debate for me. I am just not a big fan of Carpenter rearing back and going with a 4-seamer more often. His 2-seamer was nasty when on, and I've consistently felt that way (that he was better off going with his sinking action) since reports came out from AFL last year that he was rearing back and going more with the 4-seamer out of the pen.

Yes he is, and hence why I was worried for a long time about his ability to work a heavy workload. But his strong run this year has assuaged some of my concerns about that.

I thought the ceiling was lower due to being a little older than alot of guys in the minors and more injured history than most arms that have that kind of perceived upside. That upside only existed and was talked about because of the kind of arm he has. I like him way more as a reliever, where his ample stuff is concentrated in doses, rather than as a starter, where he's further off from the big leagues despite being 26 and it's much harder to break in and last. The stuff is more than good, it's high end. Personally, I think you underrate the breaking pitch a whole lot. From what you're describing it sounds like you're letting the year by year minor league result variations cause your opinion to sway to extremes pretty easily. Also, the description of Kurcz at the bottom sounds alot like Carpenter...who also has two plus pitches and a fastball that moves very well. He (Kurcz) has the disadvantage/advantage of being less tested (lower level, nowhere near as many innings), younger, and making a smoother transition earlier...I buy that he's potentially a good, even very good pen arm, but I don't buy that he's a better prospect than Carpenter right now. That's probably just a difference in philosophy when it comes to ranking prospects...I do see some David Robertson-esque qualities in Kurcz as a young arm in the way he pitches and repeats his mechanics, but he's at least two years away and therefore just further from thought. I don't feel like I'm underrating his breaking ball and I don't feel like I'm letting year to year results impact my opinion in my comments. 1) I said his breaking ball was good ... when on, but it's too inconsistent. I've seen both breaking balls, and my gut feeling is that Kurcz's has better movement and he's more consistent, hence why I prefer his slider to Carpenter. 2) I think it's fair to say that Carpenter had control issues before this year. Last year, those comments are probably around here somewhere, I kept thinking that he could eventually right the ship enough that the control issues wouldn't be as big. Even if he righted the ship from this year, and I think he will, he'd still have control problems. They just wouldn't be gigantic, but they would still exist. To put it another way, and I'm doing this without actual pitch f/x data so it's visual based, which has the potential for viewer bias, but I think Kurcz's fastball has more movement than Carpenter's 4 seamer, and I think Kurcz's slider is a good notch above Carpenter's, based on what I saw this year. It's certainly possible that the same viewer bias that led me to over-rate Carpenter last year a bit is at play here, and I may be over-rating Kurcz a tad. But Kurcz's fastball this year, and I'm pretty sure he has 2 as I saw nasty vertical movement, and then he had a pitch that was almost like a cutter that darted a ton, for lack of a better word. Finally, I'm not sure why people think Kurcz is so far away. If he continues his strong season next year in AA (and that's a big if, as pen arms have volatility in performance, even in the inors), he could be ready for the bigs at some point in 2012. As a side note, I don't have either guy in my top 15 for my Cubs prospects, and am only debating Kurcz in the end of my top 20, so we're really talking about marginal differences in terms of ranking/rating for me.

Certainly, speaking to pure upside, he has closer upside. He also had solid 2/3 rotation upside, but that never panned out. For all the excuses I made on his control problems as a starter, I think failing to recognize that the control issues have been a critical issue throughout his career, and hoping it would turn around, led to my flawed ranking last year. Stuff is good. Anyhow, only time will tell. I'm far more confident in the package Kurcz offers right now (2 plus pitches, good movement on fastball, better breaking ball, and better command).

Leaving aside the breaking ball for a moment, I'll get back to one of my issues with Carpenter in the pen. He was a much more dangerous pitcher, IMO, when he was throwing the 2-seamer a lot more, as he'd get whiffs and induce ground balls off of that pitch. I don't love him rearing back and going for velo. Sure, it'll blow by most people, particularly since there's limited "viewings" out of the pen, but I think he was tougher with the 2-seamer. Short of it is, I see more Kyle Farnsworth right now, effective-solid pen arm if things go well, relies on velocity and not movement (and based on his twitter comments, perhaps some maturity issues), than I do a dominant late inning arm. Only time will tell.

No, I really don't see him as a starter. I don't expect them to use him as a starter again, although I've been wrong plenty of times before. I think they just wanted him to work on his pitches, and they moved him to the pen in June.

Curious why you'd have Carpenter ahead of Kurcz, or is this an issue of level they are at (doesn't sound like it from the way you are phrasing it)? With Kurcz, there's two plus pitches. Carpenter's consistency on his breaking ball isn't there to call it a consistently plus pitch, IMO. Carpenter's fastball is flattening out a lot more out of the pen, probably because he goes to a 4-seamer more (although I haven't checked the numbers are asked about it). Kurcz might not get into the upper 90's like Carpenter can, but he can get it to the mid-90's and has good movement to it. Add in his significant control advantage, and I think better stuff, better control. This isn't to downplay Carpenter on in anyway. I was awfully high on him last year, and probably over-rated him a tad based on viewer bias, and he could still be a good pen arm. I was fascinated with him as a starter due to the sink he'd get with his 2-seamer. I see him more as a power setup guy unless his slider becomes as good as Kurcz's, and his control takes major steps forward. Due to velo, he'll be able to reach back and blow it by some people. I don't really think Zych is anywhere near Kurcz right now. We'll have to wait and see how his stuff plays in pro ball, but at Louisville, it was flat, average, tick above average fastball that had velo, and a below average slider. I'd tak Rhoderick over him, even accounting for the velo difference.

I wouldn't expect double digit K action from McNutt. Here's hoping he does, but that hasn't happened all year. He needs time to work on his pitches, so AFL should help. 2012 is going to be huge for him. I think he's gone from a bit over-hyped at the end of last year, to being a touch under-hyped (still don't see why Jarred Cosart, in the eyes of many, is a significantly better talent than McNutt). That said, it's still more potential than performance, so he's got to step it up.

I'm going to be mildly curious how Greg Rohan does next year. Considering his age, performance this year, and versatility, I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be given a chance to start in AA. If Vitters is up in AAA, Rohan can split time at 3rd with Matt Cerda, get time a first with Justin Bour (who I'm assuming will go to AA), and get some corner OF time. Still feels likely that his best case is versatile corner backup, but he probably deserves a chance to prove folks wrong. I really want to love Frank Batista. I've seen him when he had a slider working, and the K's were coming. He can get ground balls. Still ... something feels missing in terms of him having late inning potential. Nothing wrong with a possible middle reliever. Just feel like he has the potential for more. Kurcz was more the setup man to Batista (probably more due to the fact that Kurcz started the year as a starter, and Bailey probably was comfortable with Frank), but there should be little doubt who has the higher ceiling, and I still believe Kurcz is the best pen prospect in the system.

So, started a discussion on Rule 5 on TCR with AzPhil. A lot of folks chimed in, but here's his possible roadmap: http://www.thecubreporter.com/2011/09/05/2011-iowa-cubs-futurama#new It certainly seem possible, but I still have a hard time seeing so many guys get added to the 40 by a new regime. And I do agree with adding Coello, who has been lights out since going to the pen. Heck, I think a case could be made for adding Parker, who's been good in the last few weeks, but the numbers game may make it hard (and if Parker is available, I'll be surprised if he isn't picked in Rule 5 - seems like the perfect Rule 5 guy to take for another team, a possible guy to fill a middle relief role without spending FA money).

Has anyone had any recent reports on Loosen? I'm curious if his velocity has picked up. He's got a nice, deep arsenal, but the old reports I had had an average fastball that peaked around 92. Sort of the righty version of Chris Rusin, but with a tick better fastball, at least, the old reports I had.

Good to see Antigua continue his strong run. Like the fact that he's getting the groundouts when the K's aren't coming. Boise was a disappointment, but no matter what happens with the FSL series, I think the performances of Rhee and Antigua are two positive things to end the year on for them.

Well, most GM candidates have an idea of possibilities for scouting director and player personnel development guy that they can get (and if they don't, they really aren't good GM candidates). I mean, guys have good understandings of others contract situations and whether or not it is actually possible to get them. I don't think, if the house was clean (and Fleita/Wilken weren't given these extensions) that it would tremendously hamper a new GM. They would likely have their guys in place withini a week or two of being hired. IIRC, when Epstein was hired in Boston, he brought in his team, and it was a dramatically different approach, and they managed to conduct a review of the organization and assess issues with the prior regime all within the first month or so, and if I recall correctly, they had their issues sorted out and an offseason plan in place fairly quick. Again, it may amount to nothing, but in the end, I think, from an organizational perspective, it was better to have left things clean, particularly since Ricketts made clear how much he liked Fleita and Wilken long before giving them those extensions. I say this as someone who leans towards wanting to see Wilken kept around.

I wish all the guys at Peoria the best, and I hope they prove me wrong, but of the guys that finished the year at Peoria, only 4 positional guys really stand out to me in regards to having enough prospect status to be worth paying attention to - Arismendy Alcantara, Rubi Silva, Dustin Geiger, and Micah Gibbs. Hard to imagine those 4 cracking many, if any, Cubs top 30 prospect lists. Of the four, Gibbs probably has the best shot to work his way up, as his skill defensively behind the plate will give him a shot to, at least, be a better Koyie Hill (and I say that in a positive way, as Koyie did make it to the majors and convince people to keep him around for awhile). I am intrigued to see if the other three can make enough improvements to take a step forward. I expect Geiger to be in Peoria again in 2012. Silva should be at Daytona. I'm not sure what expect on what they would decide with Arismendy. It was a weak crop of positional talent that passed through there this year, with only Matt Szczur as a top prospect.