toonsterwu

Saw this in TCR's comments section - Keith Law chat with some Cubs talk http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/40713/mlb-insider-keith-law He said he's going to tweet about Hultzen vs. McNutt, so I'll go see if anything is there. Oh, he did seem to take a minor shot at Pujols - said something about his "listed age". I don't recall there ever being much concern about Pujols age not being legitimate, but I guess it's the day and age we are in. Perhaps he didn't mean much by it.

I'm not so sure it's a lock. I think they'll be in it, but in an offseason where they likely have to re-up with CC and pay him more, do they want two long term contracts when they have several contracts on the book that may be problematic. Add in the fact that they may re-up with Cano soon (perhaps as soon as this offseason), along with the love that Cashman has for Banuelos and Betances, I could see them look for other additions if the cost gets out of control. I think they'll be in it, but I just don't know if it's a lock.

I know the Cubs are going to want to see if Brett can handle the leadoff role to start his career, but I still don't love the idea. Just toying around with the FA lists (mlbtr and cots), and if the Cubs opt against the big splash (FA or trade), I wouldn't mind going for say, Kelly Johnson, Jason Kubel, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and say, a Josh Willingham (or Michael Cuddyer) to fill out a lineup. There's positives and negatives to both approaches (big splash, or pieces of the puzzle), but a lineup of say, Brett Jackson, CF Starlin Castro, SS Josh Willingham, 1st Jason Kubel, RF Geovany Soto, C Kelly Johnson, 2nd Alfonso Soriano, LF Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3rd Doesn't look that bad to me. It's not exciting, that's for sure. We'd probably have to trim off Marlon Byrd's contract. It wouldn't tie us down long-term like a big splash move and might provide a more competitive offensive squad, while saving enough money to go after pitching upgrades. Anyhow, just a thought.

Honestly intrigued with that idea as well. As a sleeper at 3rd base, I'm somewhat curious about Kouzmanoff. Not in love with it, but there aren't a ton of great options and he's always shown better power away (as he's played in pitcher friendly home parks for his career). Kubel in RF would somewhat intrigue me as well if the price was okay.

Asked AzPhil some questions, and he kindly provided some answers: I keep on wondering why numerous places have suggested Trey Martin is a good sleeper. If he's a slashing type of minimal power guy, he's really going to need an elite hit tool. AzPhil's wording, and I may be reading too much into it, seems to suggest that Martin is going to need to rework his swing to develop some power. Physically, he would seem to have the potential to add it, but we'll have to wait and see. I'm a bit bothered that AzPhil seems to think that we aren't working on Maples mechanics. Granted, it seems like speculation on his part, and it is also possible that they might simply want him to get his feet wet in pro ball before pondering changes. That said, they did aggressively push someone with similar mechanical concerns in Struck. Edit: In a follow-up, AzPhil cleared things up a bit and his speculation is that they aren't working on it now as there simply isn't enough time to get Maples enough reps.

Taking a quick perusal of Epstein's first official offseason as GM with the Red Sox (took over November 25, 2002), but he really didn't make many big, news-making moves. Granted, he's coming into a far different situation. The 2002 Red Sox were a solid squad (93 wins) with several key players in their prime (Damon, Garciaparra, Manny, Lowe, Pedro). Perhaps the most notable changes they made, going into 2003, was the addition of Bill James and developing a more structured, analytical focus to their player development process. IIRC, and it's been awhile, but the Red Sox system in the early part of the century was viewed as mediocre. One interesting note, as compared to the talent on the Cubs as of now, was their attempt to go with a committee for the bullpen. Problem was, they didn't have a manager that showed a willingness to continue with it, so Byung-Hyun Kim was eventually shifted to closer. Of course, big, news-making moves don't mean that much, and the additions of guys like Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, and to lesser extents, Bronson Arroyo and Todd Walker, would end up being key to the team's success in 2003. He did make 7 selections in the Rule 5 draft, 3 on the major league level, 4 on the AAA level, so that may be something to watch. Two interesting names that saw in their transactions ledger had nothing to do with talent. Buddy Bailey was brought back as AAA manager after Epstein took over, so I wonder if Buddy may be given a chance to move up in the organization. Ron Jackson was hired as hitting coach, and he's currently a minor league hitting coach with the Astros. Always liked what Ron Jackson was able to do, particularly in closing the hole in Big Papi's swing. Granted, he had talented rosters to work with, but if we move on from Rudy Jaramillo, that's a name I'd be intrigued with (granted, he was let go by Theo, so not sure what sort of relationship is there). That said, this is a far bigger rebuilding situation than Epstein had to deal with at any point in his Red Sox tenure where he was the voice in charge. Does have me wondering, though, if we might be in line, in 2012, for more stopgap, "small" pickups, allowing Theo to get his team in place to better assess the organization and develop the internal tools they feel they need. I mean, guys like Kelly Johnson, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jason Kubel (to name 3 guys that are roughly in their primes and are considered more 2nd, if not 3rd, tier FA's) wouldn't excite the fan-base at large, but they might be solid pickups to help build a foundation as Theo rebuilds things. There is a potentially solid 2013 FA class (granted, it could become weak, depending on what re-signings take place) that, while it lacks the impact bat of a Pujols/Fielder, may provide some better arms to target after.

Part of me does wonder what Tarlandus Mitchell keeps showing them to keep him around. I guess it's the velocity, but many guys have failed to get as many seasons as he has without advancing.

That's the assumption. Although they may simply want to get him acclimated to pro ball. The clips I've seen of Maples, his delivery reminds me a bit of Nick Struck, and to an extent, Tommy Hanson. There's a little, hitch/pullback/dragback, for lack of a better term at this hour, causing extra-motion usage. From what I understand, guys with this type of motion can pitch, but they are at risk of injury, and it impacts their command to a certain extent. That said, there's got to be someone more knowledgeable on mechanics than me, so maybe someone could offer some insight on the risks associated with this type of arm action. My general opinion is that I'd rather see them attack the issue now, even if it means delaying his progress up the system. The higher up one gets, the harder it is to adjust and change things, as there's a higher burden on productivity. If It means Maples is in XST/Arizona all year, I'm not against it.

Chien-Ming Wang has probably been more successful than many, but that's a slightly different case in that he was brought over as a youngster, unlike a Matsuzaka/Nomo/Kuroda, or even a Darvish, guys that would be coming over in their primes, or the end of their primes. Wang looks to have a few solid mid-end of the rotation years left in him, though. Wang was also slightly different in that he was a big guy. As for Darvish, isn't the heavy rumor out there that the Blue Jays are going to be heavy in on him and might be the favorites? All that said, I think Ricketts will likely give Theo the resources Theo wants, and if Theo really wants him, I think we could be in the bidding. I imagine, though, it may come down to the usual cast of characters, Yankees, Mariners, maybe Blue Jays.

Nomo had a ridiculous rookie campaign, but he never came close to replicating that success and ended up with a career ERA+ under 100. Kuroda is one I missed -- will be interested in seeing how his career ends up. Kuroda is available this offseason. He'll be 37 next season, but might be worth a 1-2 year deal to help shore up the rotation. Isn't the rumor on him that he's going to stay in LA or go back to Japan, with the slim chance that he'd ponder a New York team?

At the right price, I'd be interested, but I doubt he would come cheap, and thus, I'd be hesitant. He's a mid-end of the rotation starter, a Randy Wells-level guy (who, like Randy did, somewhat overachieved). Anything above a 7/8 mil AAV, I'd be wary of handing a contract to him (particularly since it would take probably at least 2 years, if not 3). As someone noted above, he might get 10 mil AAV on the market, and I'd definitely pass at that rate.

Honestly, the state of the franchise is such that I don't think there should be any untouchables. There should be guys that are more costly than others, but there's some restructuring that needs to be done. Now, from a personal opinion, there's only a handful of guys that I don't want to see gone yet. Starlin Castro tops that list, as I still believe he can be passable at shortstop while adding power. I still think we might be looking at a Robinson Cano level hitter a few years down the road. I just don't see any team offering enough to justify us moving him, but you never know I guess. And ... that's it. From a positional perspective, off of the current 40, Castro is the only guy I'd rather not move. Soto will likely not be a part of the next core. If they get a good deal (hey ... Boston could use a catcher), go for it. In terms of pitching, Garza is one you try to keep around. Now, if a team throws an arm and 2 legs at you, and honestly, some team might considering the thin pitching market, Garza's strong year, his age, and the fact that he's cost-controlled, then you think about it. But finding that TOR arm is difficult, so it'd have to be a heck of a deal. After that? Um ... I guess Cashner would be in that next tier, after Castro/Garza, but I'm legitimately concerned that he won't be that starting caliber arm. I doubt anyone gives us enough to justify moving him, considering he's coming off injury. Everyone else, I'm open to moving for the right deal. Not that I'm expecting it, but they aren't guys I'd be concerned with giving up if a solid deal came about. Keeping guys like Marshall/Wood/Dempster around for veteran leadership is nice, but not necessary. No one's really untouchable in the farm, but only way I deal Brett Jackson is if it's for other young talent. There's lower level talent I'm intrigued with, but not untouchable. It's a new era, and the focus should be on developing that next core. Just not sure there's that many pieces on the big league level that scream, "keep me, damnit."

Rosscup was having a solid season before he got hurt. I wonder what the Cubs will do with him next year. If they keep him as a starter, there are several lefty arms that could be in the mix at Daytona in Kirk, Harman, Del Valle, Rosscup, Burke. Certainly possible that Harman/Rosscup could be in AA, but that would probably be in the pen. Rosscup looked promising enough that I'd rather see him be given some leeway, but with several guys of similar skills in the same range, it'll be interesting to see what decision a new front office makes on small decisions like this.

And Soriano... and Casey Coleman, Rodrigo Lopez, etc. I think it's just going to be money. I think it's going to be 2nd tier talent. Probably better than what the Marlins gave up for Ozzie, but not someone that should superbly trouble the fanbase. At best, perhaps could see a Flaherty get sent that way. I'll be surprised if it's a better talent than that, unless it's one of our low level kids. Just a guess.

He's your typical solid veteran 3 and a top of the line 4. I'd be perfectly fine with him as the #3 starter next year. He'd still be the unofficial leader of the Cubs pitching staff because of his time spent here and the fact that he has been so solid for the team. I think we have Baker types, including Dempster. His periphs are nice, but he's throwing in a pretty sweet pitcher's park and I just don't think a young AL Central pitcher (and Baker is 3 years older than Garza was) will see the boost a young AL East pitcher would see. The Cubs made some adjustments to Garza's game, but he's always been a very good pitcher who's numbers got AL Easted. He was and is more naturally talented than Baker too. Dempster is a solid 3, top of the line 4? So you are saying that there are 60 better starters than Dempster? I don't see it. He's posted 15.1 WAR over the last 4 years. It's hard to buy that his WAR slip this year is a significant indicator of troubles to come, as there were some clear statistical reasons as to why the WAR fell. A 3 WAR arm is typically a top 60 guy every year to begin with. Anyhow, I think this is one of those things that we'll end up going back and forth on. I think there's more than enough arguments, statistically and stuff wise (I mean a "3" arm is typically, what, 2 above average pitches, decent 3rd offering, decent command - Dempster definitely has that and at times, his stuff is close to a 2, when he has a plus fast/plus slider), to say that Dempster is a low end 2, high end 3, and I don't think Baker is significantly below him, but I acknowledge that the Baker part is debatable. Dempster, though, I don't see why he's a mid-end of the rotation arm. The numbers support that he's a low 2/high 3, and even if you assume that there's going to be some decline, it's hard to see him decline significantly that he'll be a below average 3 starter. Certainly, Garza is more talented than Baker.

Shields would be my top choice. Well, Price, Hellickson, or Moore would, but I'd take any one of these guys. I wish that we could find the factory that keeps churning these guys out. Anyway, would a package built around Soto and some prospects be reasonable, assuming we're comfortable with a Castillo/Clevenger tandem? Maybe Geo, 2 major league ready guys(J. Jax, LeMahieu, Russell, Colvin, Barney, Dolis etc) and 1- 2 lower level guys and get a prospect or 2 kicked in from them? Just going off the Garza template but using Geo instead of a top prospect but better big league ready players than Fuld and Chirinos. Shields arguably has as much value as, if not more than, Garza did last year (3 more years of cost-control, albeit, expensive cost-control, weak FA market for pitching, and coming off a strong season). I'd love to go after Shields (although I feel like he'll regress a bit), but I think the price is going to be too costly. Also, I don't see them doing a deal for someone like Soto, who could get costly as well. They really liked Chirinos last year, and by most accounts, still do (had a fairly solid minor league season after the first month). You'd likely have to offer them at least one of our top 3 or 4 guys (from that BJax/Szczur/McNutt trio perhaps), and a lot more.

Angels going after pitching? I guess you can't rule it out, but my hunch is that if they offer anyone a "blow it out of the water" type deal, it'd probably be an offensive piece, and perhaps Aramis. They have a solid 1-3 in the rotation in Haren/Weaver/Santana. Orioles definitely have the money, but I just don't see them spending blow people out of the water type money. Even if they do, I imagine (could be wrong) that CJ Wilson might want to go to a competitive situation at his age, and if the money's close, who's going to Baltimore? That's just a tough division with poor ownership leadership as it relates to team-building.

The thing is, Morneau has been hurt the last two years. Do you take on a contract through 2013 for a guy like that, entering his age 31 season? I was a big fan of Morneau, but it's a risky proposition at this stage, particularly since they'd likely want good talent in return.

Ryan Dempster is a mid-back of the rotation starter? I think Dempster is fine as a 2/3. He throws 200 innings, consistently has a xFIP in the 3.7 range (ERA ballooned a bit this year, but K/9, BB/9, and K/BB were all fine compared to years past). He's consistently around a 3 WAR pitcher. Is he on the decline? Probably, but I don't see any reason, as of now, to be concerned. Velocity was somewhat similar to 09, slider usage was far less. As for Baker, that's a closer call. But 3 years running of 7+ K/9 and 2 ish BB/9 rates. A bit homer prone, but the xFIP and SIERA had been on a positive 3 year trend prior to his injury. I think he's probably near the end of his prime years, but I don't see why he can't keep the level of performance he's had, which is certainly "3" worthy for most rotations, and for some, "2" worthy. The numbers are strong, and if the Cubs could do whatever trick they did with Garza on him, perhaps that HR rate comes down and he becomes a sharper pitcher.

Morneau is signed through 2013.

Thing is, a lot of the big market teams have some other issues to work out. Not saying he won't get a huge deal, just saying I'm not sure he's going to get a "blow everybody else out of the water" deal. I mean, which team? Yankees have the Sabathia issue, and Cashman, provided he isn't overruled by the ownership, is wary of such big contract efforts, by most accounts. Of course, he may view it as their best shot to give the aging core one last run or two. Boston has to work out their contractual issues. If they can clear some dough off, perhaps, but it's going to be awfully hard. St. Louis has to figure out Pujols first and foremoest, and I think they probably prefer Carpenter back for a short term deal. Texas? Perhaps, but do they have blow everybody away money that they can spend? White Sox are rebuilding. The one team that, to the best of my knowledge, has a fair amount of money clearing up and could use a strong 2nd starter as they wait on the kids might be Detroit, but with Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Jacob Turner, Doug Fister, they have enough arms already. Actually, from a monetary and future competitiveness standpoint, I really wonder about the Nationals. They have money to spend, and adding CJ Wilson to go with Strasburg and Zimmerman would give them a nasty 1-3, and there's a young offensive core developing. If I had to toss a team in there that I wonder about, the Blue Jays come to mind, but is this an Anthoupoulos move? May be one year too early in his plan to make this move. I wonder how real is all the chatter on the Marlins spending more this winter. Taking a gigantic pivot for a second, in a thread that doesn't really apply, but I wonder if the Twins might shop Scott Baker this offseason? It's a weak market and they have 1 year and 1 option year left. His peripherals have been fairly consistent 3 years in a row. He is coming off an injury, but didn't sound that serious. He's 30, so he's not going to be around to build around. They have to figure out a way to add some pieces. They have some contracts coming off (Nathan if they decline the option would be a big clearing), but I wonder. For the right price, he'd be a guy that I'd have some interest in as a 2/3 type starter in the rotation. I'd bring up James Shields name, but that's a price that is likely to be way too heavy for the Cubs to afford in terms of talent that it would cost.

I'm pretty sure Kyler doesn't have to be protected until after the 2012 season. Going to be interesting what decision they make with him. Sure feels like he could get a rotation nod at perhaps Daytona, giving them some flexibility on what to do with him and a better understanding of where his capabilities are. You might be thinking of Penalver. Candelario and Penalver were our big 2. Penalver could be to Marco Hernandez what Hak-ju Lee was to Starlin Castro, the slicker fielding shortstop who might not have the offensive tools of the other guy. At least, here's hoping. Exciting to have so much up the middle talent, even if it is in the lower levels, considering all that we've lost up-the-middle in recent years, due to graduations, trades, and physical growth.

I honestly don't see us giving them quality talent for Epstein. Epstein seems to want a new opportunity at some point, and I think the Red Sox front office knows that. At best, I think we give them some 2nd tier talent, or more likely, eat a bad contract of theirs, if Epstein does end up coming here.

What I'm wondering is if there are mechanical issues with Hernandez's throwing. AzPhil specifically notes throws in the ground to first, which typically is a sign of arm strength concerns, but it could also easily be mechanical issues (granted, I'm assuming it's more than just throws in the ground that is bothering AzPhil). Perhaps he's not getting over the ball enough, perhaps he has some weird motion, don't know, but the potential exists of that being a factor. This is, of course, assuming BA heard multiple reports of plus arm strength. The other possibility might be what BA noted, which somewhat ties in with mechanical issues (potentially), and that would be accuracy concerns.

Man, Bullinger was one of my favorite Cubs, largely because he was one of the first baseball cards I ever had.