The Orange Bowl has the last at-large pick, so if Utah (or any other outsider) is in a BCS bowl it will be that one. Sugar will get the 1st pick because they lose the SEC champ, who will presumably be No. 1. Fiesta gets the 2nd because they lose the Big 12 champ, at No. 2. Then Fiesta goes again because they had the first pick to begin with, then Sugar, then Orange. The Rose isn't in the selection because they have the Big Ten/Pac-10 thing. So what we're looking at is these eligible teams - removing the SEC and Big 12 champs because they'll be in the national title game, and the Big Ten champ and Pac-10 champ because they'll play in the Rose Bowl. I'm also assuming that Missouri won't upset the Big 12 South champ in the Big 12 title game, that PSU will beat MSU, that Ohio State will beat Michigan, that Oregon State will lose one of their remaining two games, and that Utah, Boise, TCU and Ball State all win out. In that scenario, the Rose Bowl would be USC vs. Penn State. As for the rest of the bowls: 2nd place Big 12 South team (Texas Tech/Oklahoma/Texas) Ohio State Utah Boise State TCU Ball State Big East champ (Cincinnati/Pitt winner) ACC champ (obligated to Orange Bowl) Sugar: Will probably pick loser of SEC title game (Alabama/Florida). Fiesta: Has two picks in a row and will probably take Ohio State and whoever finishes 2nd in the Big 12 South. Sugar again: Most likely takes the Big East winner to play Alabama/Florida. Orange: Takes the highest-ranked outsider. According to the BCS, the highest-ranked outsider MUST be taken - there is no discretion for more than one qualifier. In this scenario, it'd be Utah. So we would see: Sugar: Alabama/Florida vs Cincy/Pitt Rose: USC vs Penn State Fiesta: Ohio State vs Texas/Oklahoma/Texas Tech Orange: ACC champ vs Utah If Oregon State does win out and so does USC, USC enters the at-large pool. What is crazy is that, due to auto-bids and the fact that Alabama/Florida and Texas/Oklahoma/Texas Tech could be more favorable due to the region of the bowls they'd be playing in, USC or Ohio State in this scenario would be passed over, unthinkably enough.