There's some moving pieces involved. - If nothing else materially changed, adding Verlander would take them out of the running for pretty much any 25+ free agent for the next 2 offseasons. So no Otani if he waits a year or Harper/Machado. - If Otani doesn't wait a year, then the money doesn't matter at all in his case. - Heyward opting out would basically bring that back to where we are now. You can decide for yourself if his rejuvenated self would opt out a of 5/106 at 29 with an additional 2019 opt out. - There are not very many pitchers worthy of 25M+ in these offseasons. Otani if he waits a year is one. Other potential options are Darvish at 31 (2017), Kershaw at 31 if he opts out of 2/70 (2018), Price at 33 if he opts out of 4/127 (2018), and Keuchel at 31 (2018). With the exception of Otani and Kershaw, neither of whom are at all guaranteed to be available just for money, you can make the argument that Verlander on 2.5/70 is a better option than whatever FA contract Darvish, Price, or Keuchel might sign. Also Verlander helps you today, which is a nontrivial benefit, and in the case of Price/Keuchel/Kershaw, he also helps you next year instead of keeping your powder dry for 18 months and who knows what other circumstances. EDIT: It's also possible that after 2018 they might go into the luxury tax for a year to get someone they really like(I would think Harper is the name for this). After 2019 you'd be losing Verlander and Zobrist for 40 million(and maybe Heyward for 22 million) so you could get away with only one year above. That's the thing. I don't think they'd care about going into the luxury tax for one year. It's the multiple years in a row that's a killer.