K-Town

Jerome Williams, Jeff Suppan, take your pick.

19-4. As much as people want to pretend that wins don't matter, the fact still remains that unless your team wins a game, you've accomlplished NOTHING, in the big picture. Everybody wants to play the "what if" game. "What if" Houston was scoring runs for Clemens. Maybe he'd have more wins. That's fine, but it goes both ways. "What if" Carpenter's team wasn't scoring for him. Has anybody considered that Carpenter may dig in a little harder if he had to, and possibly give it all he's got for 6 innings, rather than pacing himself for 8 or 9? I think it's fair to say that a pitcher with a lead is going to relax a little bit, maybe not focus quite as much. Perhaps if Carpenter were backed into a corner game after game, he'd be less prone to making a mistake here and there. We can play the "what if" game all day long. And yes, something should be said for Clemens' ERA. But in Carpenter, we're not talking about a guy with 19 wins, and a 4.50 ERA. Carpenter has been EXCELLENT in every aspect of what he's doing, including helping his team win games. If you want to talk about "replacement value", then let's talk about it. Clemens' team has won 14 games when he started. If a trained monkey replaced Clemens, they would have won 14 fewer games. If a trained monkey replaced Chris Carpenter, then the Cards would have won 19 fewer games. Last time I check, 19 is more than 14. So the "replacement value" doesn't hold much water with me.

Based on what? Based on PRAA (Pitching Runs Above Average) OK. Whatever. I assume it's just another way of saying that Clemens' ERA is better than Carpenter's?

Based on what?

Good outings for both pitchers, yet again. It's amazing that both of these guys are able to keep the pace, without a hiccup. It looks like Carpenter will be on a pitch limitation for the rest of his starts (good idea!). It'll be interesting to see if this plays a factor, one way or another. He may be even more aggressive than he's been, since he knows that he only has 100 pitches to finish a game. Hopefully it won't have an adverse effect, and he just continues to pitch as he has.

It would be alot to expect the Cards winning with that sort of lineup (and Mike Mahoney to boot, because Molina was still out at that time), but they did recently take 2 out of 3 against the Braves, and split 4 against the Marlins, so it's not out of the question. Home field advantage should help the Cards also. If Walker, Sanders and Grudz come back strong, the Cards have as good a chance as any team, I guess.

Edmonds' overall production (specifically his OPS) is WAY below anything he's done in the previous 5 years, so I think it's fair to say he's underachieving. I think that the point with Marquis is that you would EXPECT a pitcher with his ability would begin to get progressively better at age 27, rather than take a step backward, which he's done. If you think a player has to get progressively better at 27, then you have to expect a 35 year old to decline. Most 35 year olds don't play to their career averages, never mind slightly above them. No, but I certainly didn't expect Edmonds' OPS to drop off 142 points from last year (similar to the drop-off the Corey Patterson has experience this year).

Why would you expect him to do better? Last year is proving to be the year he overachieved, not this year being a year of underachieving. There are plenty of pitchers who have the talent, but not the right mindset to maximize his talents, Marquis happens to be one of them. He's pitching about where you'd expect him to if his mind isn't where it needs to be. Yeah, that's probably closer to accurate. He's "disappointing", let's just say that. But probably not underachieving.

Edmonds' overall production (specifically his OPS) is WAY below anything he's done in the previous 5 years, so I think it's fair to say he's underachieving. I think that the point with Marquis is that you would EXPECT a pitcher with his ability would begin to get progressively better at age 27, rather than take a step backward, which he's done.

Pretty fair list. I don't think I'd call Grudz an "overachiever", though. He has a lower OPS this year than he had the last 2 years with the Cubs. Reyes, I guess I won't dispute, although based on what he's done the last 2 or 3 years, this year isn't anything special.

He's played in over 200 games in the past couple years. I think that's plenty of time for scouts to put together a book on him. But he has been playing pretty regularly this year -- 108 out of 126 games. Right, but only 287 at-bats. He's had alot of pinch hit appearances. You make some good points though. Do you have a theory, or do you just mark it down as a fluke?

I brought it up because Taguchi spent some time battling for a roster spot in Japan during his career there, and you said he hadn't done that. Or at least your wording read that way to me. But there's still that whole difference in the level of play thing. If Taguchi had produced a .749 OPS in AAA ball, would you say the same thing? A .749 OPS in Japan is better than a .749 OPS in AAA, but it's not close to a .749 OPS in MLB, more like a .600 - .620 OPS. Typically, Taguchi has done even worse than .749 in AAA. That's what makes me think that his success with the big club may have something to do with the fact that big-league pitchers haven't seen enough of him yet to pinpoint his weaknesses. It's just a theory...... which is why we're having the discussion, right? If Taguchi played regularly, for a full season or two, I'm pretty confident you'd see him regress into the .600's. There's really no reason to think he wouldn't.

And, lets not count this out, he has a great nickname and a cute leg-kick move. He's a shoe in for any award the Baseball Writer's of America give out. And, he has the 5th best ERA in the league. Clemens showed us last year that that's just about where you need to be in order to win the Cy Young Award. Dontrelle has positioned himself well, it seems!

Hooray for him. What is that, his first one in two years? If trends continue, he'll give up 3 or more runs in his next start (happens every time he has to "stretch himself out" into an 8-inning marathon game). :wink:

I'm not making things up "off the cuff" (but your accusations that I am is why I thought you were being a jerk). What would be my incentive to make things up? I have no point to prove. Taguchi is having a pretty decent season as a back-up outfielder. I'm not even quite sure why I'm feeling the need to defend that, but I do. Like I said, there's a difference between "making things up" and "keeping things in context". What So Taguchi was doing when he was 22 years old isn't relevant to what we're talking about, is it? I'm not even sure why you brought it up, unless you were reaching for something to make YOUR point. Thanks for the link. Taguchi had a .749 OPS in his last year in Japan, so a case could be made that he began trending that direction before he came to America. Maybe someone in Memphis changed his approach ever so slightly. You also have to consider that most American pitchers still haven't seen much of Taguchi (because of the time he's spent in Memphis, and the time he's spent on the bench), so there's probably a decent chance that they're still trying to "figure him out".

As a Cardinals fan, I've been wise enough to avoid Cub-related topics (because I'm NOT here to stir up trouble). If there's a Cardinal-related topic here, I don't see any harm in having a friendly banter (and most of the time it IS friendly). There are good, intelligent posters on this board (1908 is one of them, from what I can tell.... he just seemed a little "testy" to me). That's the only reason I'm here. It's not because I'm DYING to argue with Cubs fans. I can do plenty of that on the Cards' boards. :wink:

Save the insults. We're comparing Taguchi's performace in NPB to his performance in MLB. Ichiro, Hideki, Iguchi, etc. all took a paycut to play in MLB instead of stay in Japan. If you want to believe I'm making that up, I could care less. I also know that Taguchi played minor league ball in Japan. That's why I asked if you were making things up when you declared "He wasn't trying to work his way up from the minor leagues in Japan." His name is linked above. Linked above "what"? You're awfully grouchy about all of this, and I'm not sure why. Taguchi is having a good year. So what? Do you think that makes the Cardinals "cheaters", or what? Do you think that the Cardinals are "up to no good", just because one player is having a slightly better year than what you would expect? It's not like Taguchi is setting the world on fire. He's been a decent replacement player. I wouldn't want him as an everyday outfielder. You should relax a little. I'm not here to stir up trouble. I just don't like to be accused of "making things up". There's a difference between keeping things in context (which is what I was doing) and "making things up".

A lot more likely at 29 than 36, though, right? I don't know, is it? Look at Barry Bonds. Roger Clemens. Woody Williams. That's just off the top of my head. I expect we could both find examples of each case, if we looked hard enough. Yes, it is. Pitchers are a difference animal than hitters. They tend to peak a lot later. And there's some reason to suspect Bonds' resurgence during his late 30s. Edited to fix formatting issue. Moises Alou has had some of his best years in his 30's, and is performing better at age 39 than he did at age 29. It happens.

How does your theory account for Hideki Matsui's drop-off? There's a measureable difference in the level of play in Japan (NPB) versus MLB. MLB is a more difficult league. That accounts for Ichiro's and Hideki's (and Iguchi's) dropoff in performance. Are you just making stuff up? Taguchi made his debut at 22. Where do you think he played before that? The Japanese minor leagues perhaps? That's true of every player that's come over from Japan. What do you mean "am I making stuff up"? Why are you being a jerk about it? I thought we were comparing Taguchi's perfmance in Japan to Taguchi's performance in America. You gave me his Japanese numbers (the ones where he WASN'T working his way out of the minor leagues), and his American numbers (where he WAS working his way up from the minor leagues). I'm not that concerned what he did 15 years ago, quite frankly. It's true of every player that's come from Japan? Really? Are you making THAT up, or do you have a link (because I can give you a link of Taguchi saying that he wanted to stay here for that very reason). Players like Matsui and Ichiro are making the big bucks over here. That MIGHT have something to do with why they're staying here. Taguchi is making next to nothing. He got better offers from Japan last year, but stayed here because he wanted the challenge, instead of the money. Where did you find Taguchi's OPS numbers from Japan? I've looked at ESPN and Baseball Cube, but can't find the Japanese numbers.

He worked very hard while in Japan too. Almost every player does over there. He hit in the same lineup as Ichiro (.353/.421/.522 across his 9 years in Japan) for 8 years. Besides, I'm not sure that's much of a factor anyway. But I'll leave that for one of our more sabermetric-ly inclined members to address. But he's head and shoulders better than he should be. Just compare Ichiro's career numbers in Japan (see above) with his MLB numbers -- .334/.379/.443. Or how about Hideki Matsui? .304/.413/.582 over 9 years in Japan versus .294/.368/.483 in MLB. Two words: Derrek Lee It happens. A lot more likely at 29 than 36, though, right? I don't know, is it? Look at Barry Bonds. Roger Clemens. Woody Williams. That's just off the top of my head. I expect we could both find examples of each case, if we looked hard enough.

By the way, you pretty much made my point with the Ichiro example. Ichiro comes to America, is place in a "so-so" lineup, and there's no improvement in his game. Taguchi comes to America, is put in the middle of a very good lineup, and he excels. My theory would be that the "nasty stuff" is being saved for guys like Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen (when healthy), Walker, etc., and a pitcher may try to "take a break" with Taguchi. Maybe Taguchi is taking advantage of the pitchers losing focus. Who knows? Do you think he was working as hard in Japan as he's working here? He wasn't trying to work his way up from the minor leagues in Japan. That's been the case here. He's spent ALOT of time in Memphis, and has had to prove himself in order to secure a job with the big club. He's on record as saying that he's enjoying the challenge in America. He even took less money to stay here this year, because he wanted to excel against the very best that the world has to offer.

He worked very hard while in Japan too. Almost every player does over there. He hit in the same lineup as Ichiro (.353/.421/.522 across his 9 years in Japan) for 8 years. Besides, I'm not sure that's much of a factor anyway. But I'll leave that for one of our more sabermetric-ly inclined members to address. But he's head and shoulders better than he should be. Just compare Ichiro's career numbers in Japan (see above) with his MLB numbers -- .334/.379/.443. Or how about Hideki Matsui? .304/.413/.582 over 9 years in Japan versus .294/.368/.483 in MLB. Two words: Derrek Lee It happens.

You mean like John Rodriguez, he of the "sparkling" .788 OPS? Or Hector Lunda, with the .722 OPS? Or Scott Seabol, who is carrying the team with his .596 OPS? Or maybe you're talking about Mike Mahoney, and his .450 OPS? Or maybe John Gall, with his .596 OPS is your guy? Exactly who ARE you talking about? How about Taguchi himself? He hit .277/.333/.387 across his 9 years in Japan, with a .773 career-high OPS, making his .296/.337/.443 line this year unlikely. Heck, I'm very surprised he's had any success at all in MLB. He's having a good year, but he's worked very hard since he cam from Japan. And I'm guessing he wasn't hitting in a lineup with guys like Pujols, Edmonds, etc. in Japan. He's having a decent year, but you can't expect EVERY player to play below norm.

Walker, yes. Molina, yes. Sanders, not yet (probably September). Rolen, done. Grudz, still out. Taguchi's X-rays were apparently negative, so that's good.

You mean like John Rodriguez, he of the "sparkling" .788 OPS? Or Hector Lunda, with the .722 OPS? Or Scott Seabol, who is carrying the team with his .596 OPS? Or maybe you're talking about Mike Mahoney, and his .450 OPS? Or maybe John Gall, with his .596 OPS is your guy? Exactly who ARE you talking about?