K-Town

Clemens is still going to finish with over 200 innings. Peavy didn't even come close to that if I recall correctly. 200 innings is WAY more than enough for one season. If it were easy to do that, people would do it almost every year. Carp has done it only once while Clemens has done it for the better part of 21 years. The few inning advantage he has doesn't mean anything. It just means that LaRussa is willing to burn his guy out and ruin his arm for good so that he can win a trophy instead of a world series. And your understanding of stats is flawed. In 2002 or 2003, Kerry Wood led the majors in strikeouts. Was he the most dominant pitcher that year? Not by a long shot. Greg Maddux has never been a strikeout pitcher, how many Cy Youngs does he have? Strikeouts are overrated. And they only good if you can get them in the right situations. So 200 innings is the standard that you've set. OK. I'm glad you're making your rules clear as we go. Anything that's convenient to Clemens' cause. I've already said that I'm not going to debate "dominance" with you, because your definition and mine are clearly different. I can tell you that Carpenter has pitched 3 of the top 5 games in baseball this year. Clemens isn't on the list. Why? Because the people who came up with that stat believe that a starting pitcher should go more than 7 innings in order to be considered "dominant". I'm not saying they're right or wrong, but they place a strong emphasis on being able to finish what you start, or it's not "dominant".

No argument. Clemens is one of the best pitchers in baseball history. Carpenter will never have the career that Clemens has had. Never. No, I've never talked to Clemens in my life. I know why he took himself out of Saturday's game, because he told everyone in America about his sore back. It had nothing to do with Garner. Clemens makes his own rules ("yeah, I think I'll retire......... oh wait, nevermind". "I think I'll only pitch when Houston is at home, because I want to be with my family........... oh wait, nevermind"). Do I need to go on? I agree. It's probably not a bad idea to coddle Clemens. He needs it, because he's not very durable. Funny you should mention a "fresh Izzy". I'm sure that the other 4 starters in the Cardinal rotation are thrilled to have a "fresh Izzy" ready to go for them, because Carpenter didn't need him to finish what HE started.

Carpenter is more dominant. He's pitched 3 of the best 5 games in baseball this year. Clemens isn't even on the list. Clemens has been more consistent, because he's had the advantage of being coddled more than Carpenter. Carpenter WANTS the ball in the 8th & 9th inning, and has shown that he'll finish the job. Clemens wants a shower after 7. Furthermore, Carpenter has faced batters with a .737 OPS. Clemens, .730. Carpenter has faced 7 playoff teams. Clemens, 3. It's not black and white. Both pitchers have done things that the other hasn't. They've both been great, in different ways. Clemens is more effective when he is in the game than Carp is. This is the definition of dominance. Dominance = effectiveness. Stamina falls into a different category. We can debate the meaning of "dominance" all day long. Chad Cordero is the most dominant pitcher in baseball, by your definition.

The middle ground might be that each side decides to agree to disagree. Or agree that the rest of the season might open up opportunities for Clemens or Carp to be a clear cut winner. I sure hope that is the case because if Clemens wins because of ERA alone than the whole process will look pretty questionable. I can agree to that. It's obvious there is no middle ground in this discussion. I hope one or the other runs away with it, so there's no debate at the end of the year. But the debate now isn't just because of Clemens ERA. He's also among the league leaders in almost every other category. His ERA isn't the only reason I think he's leading right now. It's the fact that he's the most dominant pitcher in baseball. He's not the most "dominant". He's probably been the most consistent, for 7 innings a game, but Carpenter is more dominant. Carpenter has pitched 3 of the 5 best games in baseball (not just the NL, but in the entire Major Leagues), according to ESPN's game scores. Clemens is nowhere to be found: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/bestgames In fact, if Carpenter hadn't blown up for one game back in April (3.1 innings, 8 earned runs), then he'd have an ERA well under 2, and would probably be the easy favorite for the Cy Young Award. Now, I'm not saying that game should be ignored, because it shouldn't. My only point is that Carpenter has been awfully steady, except for one bad outing. Give Clemens the 17 extra innings that Carpenter has (especially going late into games), and Clemens might have busted up once or twice. Who knows? Actually, if you remove Carp's 8 run game, he would have an ERA barely under 2, 1.98 to be exact. Still over half a run higher than Roger's. Roger allows less runs, less baserunners, has a lower BAA, opponent SLG and OPS. Roger has not had one start where he gave up more than 3 ER. 3 great starts do nothing to change the fact that Roger has been better in nearly every facet. Roger is a more dominant pitcher by almost any standard. He simply shuts down the opponent more effectively, and more consistently. Carp averages less than an inning per start more than Clemens, which is not as significant as the statistical advantage Roger has in nearly every category. Clemens wins in most of the rate stats. Carpenter wins in strikeouts, and K/BB, which are numbers that alot of people use to determine "dominance". 3 great starts? Carpenter has been great virtually every time out. And he's given his bullpen 17 innings of rest that Clemens hasn't. By my math, if you remove Carpenter's 8-run game, he would have given up 37 earned runs in 177 innings, for a 1.88 ERA. Maybe my math is wrong, or maybe yours is wrong.

This one is just too easy to hammer, i mean i read that word UNPRECEDENTED and thats just too easy. How bout... Roger Clemens 2001 CG=O Barry Zito 2002 CG=1 Clemens has pitched 3 CG in his last 7 years. Peavy pitched in 27 games and had 166 IP. Maybe that might have something to do with him not winning last year. Clemens will probably pitch another 8 games and 50 IP bringing it to 214 IP like he did last year. OK. I stand corrected. CLEMENS can win the Cy Young Award without finishing a single game. Nobody else is allowed to apparently. So in the scenerio stated above (Peavy vs. Clemens), where the innings favored Clemens, innings DO matter. Yet this year (Clemens vs. Carpenter), when the innings DON'T favor Clemens, then we'll ignore them? Isn't that convenient? You're telling me that Peavy lost last year because of fewer innings, even though he had a far superior ERA? OK, then why shouldn't Clemens lose this year because of fewer innings, even though he has a better ERA? You can't have it both ways.

Carpenter is more dominant. He's pitched 3 of the best 5 games in baseball this year. Clemens isn't even on the list. Clemens has been more consistent, because he's had the advantage of being coddled more than Carpenter. Carpenter WANTS the ball in the 8th & 9th inning, and has shown that he'll finish the job. Clemens wants a shower after 7. Furthermore, Carpenter has faced batters with a .737 OPS. Clemens, .730. Carpenter has faced 7 playoff teams. Clemens, 3. It's not black and white. Both pitchers have done things that the other hasn't. They've both been great, in different ways.

I'm not sure how a pitcher with an ERA of 1.32 is helping his team by insisting that a bullpen with an ERA of 3.83 finish what he started, time after time after time after time......... Seems to me that I'd want the pitcher with the ERA of 1.32 in there a little longer, rather than the bullpen, with an ERA of 3.83.

The middle ground might be that each side decides to agree to disagree. Or agree that the rest of the season might open up opportunities for Clemens or Carp to be a clear cut winner. I sure hope that is the case because if Clemens wins because of ERA alone than the whole process will look pretty questionable. I can agree to that. It's obvious there is no middle ground in this discussion. I hope one or the other runs away with it, so there's no debate at the end of the year. But the debate now isn't just because of Clemens ERA. He's also among the league leaders in almost every other category. His ERA isn't the only reason I think he's leading right now. It's the fact that he's the most dominant pitcher in baseball. He's not the most "dominant". He's probably been the most consistent, for 7 innings a game, but Carpenter is more dominant. Carpenter has pitched 3 of the 5 best games in baseball (not just the NL, but in the entire Major Leagues), according to ESPN's game scores. Clemens is nowhere to be found: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/bestgames In fact, if Carpenter hadn't blown up for one game back in April (3.1 innings, 8 earned runs), then he'd have an ERA well under 2, and would probably be the easy favorite for the Cy Young Award. Now, I'm not saying that game should be ignored, because it shouldn't. My only point is that Carpenter has been awfully steady, except for one bad outing. Give Clemens the 17 extra innings that Carpenter has (especially going late into games), and Clemens might have busted up once or twice. Who knows?

That's fine, but you don't know that for sure. Garner might not ever let him finish. It's not that he can't finish, because I'm sure Clemens could finish a game, even at 43 years old. It'd be foolish to believe otherwise. But maybe Garner is just protecting him because he knows they'll need him for the playoffs, or to get to the playoffs. Maybe he could finish a game. If he was capable of finishing a game effectively, I don't see the logic in not letting him finish. Every other Cy Young candidate has finished games. I've already noted that the 2 times that he's gone as many as 8 innings this year (yup, only 2 times), his followig start was worse than his norm.

Fair enough. I'm not discrediting what Clemens is doing. I'm truly AMAZED by what he's doing. It's just a big red flag to me that he's not durable enough to finish even ONE GAME in an entire season. Again, that's unprecedented for a Cy Young candidate. Clemens MAY finish with the best ERA in the modern era, that much is true. But he may also be the only starting pitcher in the history of baseball to win the award without finishing a single game that he started. Say it doesn't matter if you want to. But it's certainly never happened before, so there must be SOMETHING to it.

Read again. I've said time after time that Clemens is having a spectacular season. It's not like I'm down on Clemens. I just can't imagine a starting pitcher winning the Cy Young Award, without finishing a single game that he started. Not even coming CLOSE to finishing, the vast majority of the time. It's also amazing that Clemens has only appeared THREE TIMES ALL YEAR against playoff teams, and pulled himself out of a close game, in the middle of a tight playoff race in August, because his back was uncomfortable. Clemens is having a terrific year. If he wins the Cy Young Award, it certainly won't be a crime. Heck, Carpenter himself says that Clemens deserves it. All things considered though, it amazes me that most people (not all of you) think it's a no-brainer.

I totally agree, which is why I made the point. Some of you INSIST on using rate stats, while completely ignoring workload. That's why I brought up Cordero. Comparing Clemens' 160 innings to Gibson's 300 innings is not really different than me comparing Cordero's 60 innings to Clemens' 160 innings.

Look up the numbers for 2004, when Clemens won the award. As long as we're using the same standard every year, I'm fine with it.

I'm not sure what you're saying. YOU are using rate stats to say that Clemens is arguably having a better year than Gibson. YOU are using rate stats to say that Clemens is having a better year than Carpenter. I'm telling you that the obsession with rate stats isn't fair, and if you want to use rate stats, then start your campaign for Chad Cordero as the Cy Young winner this year. Clemens' rate stats are better, in part, because he's being coddled. He hasn't finished a game for his team all year. Last Year's NL pitching results and Cy Young Voting Results Jake Peavy 15-8 2.27 R Johnson 16-14 2.60 Ben Sheets 12-14 2.70 Carlos Zambrano 16-8 2.75 Clemens 18-4 2.98 Oliver Perez 12-10 2.98 Carl Pavano 18-8 3.00 Roy Oswalt 20-10 3.49 Cy Young Voting Clemens Johnson Oswalt Schmidt Zambrano Pavano Gagne Lidge Sheets There were FOUR other pitchers in the NL with a better ERA than Clemens last year, yet Clemens won the Cy Young Award. Peavy had a better ERA than ANY of the other pitchers, and wasn't even on the radar for the Cy Young Award. Now, in 2005, when Clemens finally gets the ERA t hing down pat, the award is suddenly ALL about ERA. I don't get it. Again, there is no precedence. A starting pitcher has never finished what he started ZERO times, and still won the Cy Young Award. I don't get it.

Why was it impossible for him to win those games? I showed examples where, if he had stuck around longer than his customery 7 innings, his team would have won the game for him. If he'd gut it out a few times for his team, instead of going all-out for 7 innings (to protect his precious ERA) and then hitting the showers, maybe he AND his team would have won a few more games.

Both Carpenter and Clemens have started 24 games. Carpenter has pitched 16.1 more innings...or about an extra inning over Clemens in seven out of every ten games. Their average pitch counts per start are 103 for Clemens and 106 for Carpenter. Clemens just isn't getting as much mileage out of his pitches for whatever reason...which is extremely odd since Carpenter has more strikeouts AND walks than Clemens, so you would figure that Carpenter would be the one being less effecient. Strange. It's because Clemens doesn't HAVE to be efficient. He knows he's only expect to pitch into the 7th inning, and then hit the showers. If his team needs him beyond that, tough. He's got that ERA to protect.

Well if the Cy Young was going to a team, it would go to the cards...unfortunatley its supposed to go to a pitcher (I acknowledge that often wins are considered although we all obviously know little stock should be put in them). What you dont mention that against playoff teams, Clemens ERA is 1.89 and Carps is 2.47. And against winning teams Clemens ERA is 1.2 and Carps is 2.6....hmmmm. Why dont you stop quoting team statistics and start quoting something the pitcher has quite a bit of control over. Because it didn't seem to matter what the pitcher (Randy Johnson, Jake Peavy, etc.) did last year when Clemens won. Why should it matter this year? Clemens' ERA is lower because he's being coddled, plain and simple.

Are you making light of his ERA? Uh, I mean...., it's pretty close to brilliant. No. I'm not making fun of his ERA. I've said many times in this thread that Clemens is having a spectacular season. Can you explain why he hasn't been able to finish any games, or did you just stop by to critique my post? Um lets see......how bout..... 43 years old!! If that's the reason, then it's no excuse, and should count against him when considering the Cy Young voting. The award should go to the player who helps his team the most, not the player who "pitches really great for his age, and hangs in there as long as a 43 year old man should be expected to".

Are you making light of his ERA? Uh, I mean...., it's pretty close to brilliant. No. I'm not making fun of his ERA. I've said many times in this thread that Clemens is having a spectacular season. Can you explain why he hasn't been able to finish any games, or did you just stop by to critique my post?

And I STILL can't get an answer as to why a starting pitcher with such a "brilliant" ERA hasn't finished a single game all year. That's just mind-boggling.

He's also only pitched 3 games ALL YEAR against likely playoff teams, as opposed to 7 for Carpenter. He's also been coddled, and hasn't had to pace himself, like Carpenter has. Chad Cordero has a better ERA than Clemens. Why shouldn't HE win the Cy Young award? It's also not a full run ERA difference. RJ lost the Cy Young to Clemens last year. RJ led Clemens in EVERY category, except wins (and RJ was playing on a TERRIBLE Arizona team, not a playoff team, like Clemens is this year).

If only it were that simple. It's only long and drawn out because there's such a large difference of opinion. If rate stats were the only parameter to consider, then Clemens would be on par with Gibson's 1968 season, and Chad Cordero would be on par with Clemens this year. Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that.

He gave up three hits and only two earned runs that game. I wouldn't call that a bad start. If three hits and two earned runs are considered one of his worst starts, then you are just helping the argument that he deserves the Cy Young right now. Who cares about hits? I thought that ERA was going to be the reason that Clemens wins the Cy Young........... or does ERA not matter when it works against Clemens? 2 earned runs in 6 innings equates to a 3.00 ERA. That's not Cy Young material, this year. And yes, the 3 runs allowed was one of his worst outings this year. And you're right, that's pretty impressive when you can call that one of your worst outings, but Carpenter has been equally impressive, in my opinion.

Here's another interesting quirk on Clemens. He's only gone into the 8th inning 3 times this year. On May 14, he went 8 innings against the Giants. His next start was one of his worst of the year (giving up 3 runs against Arizona, on May 19). On May 30, he went 8 innings against Cincinnati. Again, his next start was one of his worst of the year (gave up 4 runs against St. Louis on June 5). His last 8 inning stint was on Aug. 13, so we'll have to see if the trend continues. There seems to be a bit of a pattern of Clemens being pretty "average" when asked to stretch himself , even a little. So while Carpenter has only thrown an extra 16 innings this year, the extra innings here and there seeem to have somewhat of an equalizing effect on Clemens, and so I don't think it's out of the question to assume that the extra workload would have put Clemens' ERA (and other secondary numbers) in the Carpenter range.

I am willing to bet you any amount of money that Gibson could relax when the bottom 1/3 of his order came around in his day. Well, we're really only talking about the 7 & 8 hitters, because the 9 hitter is the pitcher. Let's assume, for arguments' sake, that he COMPLETELY took off the 7 and 8 hitters, and they batted 4 times every game. That's 8 hitters per game that he "took off" (I'm not even sure what that means, but let's say that he only used 1/2 energy to get those 2 guys out........... in other words, he could get them out on 2 pitches, instead of the typical 4 pitches). If the 7 & 8 hitters bat 4 times per game, and Gibson is "gaining" 2 pitches per at-bat on them, then that's a total of 16 pitches that he's "taking off". He's STILL averaging 114 pitches per game. Clemens has only hit that number 4 times all year. Gibson AVERAGED that, even after "taking hitters off" (which I don't necessarily buy into).