PieOnMyHands

You're right. It was dumb. Josh Hamilton had a good scouting report, too. I still regard Bigbie has an outfielder with great potential, though.

So his career OPS is below 2B average, but that's OK 'cause he does it consistently? So what you're telling me is that besides last year's anamoly (since good players stay very consistent to their "normal" self), Derrek Lee is only a slightly above-average offensive 1st baseman? Or does the Lee season count, but the Spivey season not? Let me quote myself in this topic: Directly refute Junior Spivey signing for $1.5 million team that had a huge question mark at 2nd base, given the market and his history.

Maybe I am. The chances of him returning to his 2002-2003 days are low. But fortunately, so is his salary. What's the next report on Corey Patterson going to look like? Probably comparable. Does that mean that Patterson doesn't have potential anymore? Chris Carpenter was drafted in the first round and didn't start reaching his potential until age 29.

So if obesity and pitching abillity are separate from one another, why did you bring up weight in the first place? "Good" is arbitrary. His career OPS of .790 is almost 40 points better than the 2005 NL 2B average. Let me make a comparison, here: Derrek Lee has a career OPS of .865. NL 1st baseman this season posted an average OPS of .843. Before last season, what had Derrek Lee done that made him such a great player? He had surpassed the NL average in previous seasons, but never by a significant margin. So what separates Lee from Spivey, in regards to their production from their position? Before his breakout season, Derrek Lee was roughly a league-average 1st baseman, offensively. Without his career year in Arizona, Junior Spivey is a league-average 2nd baseman. Let's check out some signings this offseason: - Neifi Perez (.681 career OPS) gets $2.5 million per year - Abraham Nunez (.640 career OPS) gets $1.7 million per year - Mark Grudzielanek (.721 career OPS) gets $4 million per year Do I have to continue? I consider $1.5 million for a career OPS of .790 a bargain. If you argue that, then you're just doing that because Spivey signed with the Cards. Hell, even if you say his one good season skewed his numbers, he's still on par with the average 2nd baseman. Why am I not angry that we're paying $1.5 million for an average 2nd baseman on this market? Jocketty is not the type of GM that makes stupid moves (OK, he did sign Tino Martinez...). Ponson must have done a good acting job if he hasn't turned around his act. I'm not saying that Walt can't make bad moves, but it's extremely hard to believe they he would give Ponson $1 million if he was still the man he was in 2004 and 2005. I could be wrong. I hope I'm not, but yes... I could be wrong. Ponson did get a DUI, and as a result, he entered drug rehab. He now sees a therapist once a week. He's supposedly cut down his weight. That's the latest information I've heard about it, and until I hear otherwise, the news is more good than bad. Cardinal management was clearly convinced that he's content on turning it around. Otherwise, it's not likely they would take a flyer on him. OK, that's true. But still: the only thing I have seen about Reyes being prevented from entering the rotation was a snippit by RotoWorld. Who knows? If Ponson works out, maybe we'll use him in the rotation, and if he works up through July, we'll trade Marquis? In the meantime, Reyes might pitch out of the 'pen. It's what we did with Dan Haren, and he turned out fine.

Castillo has zero power. None. Spivey vs. Castillo is an example of the name attached to the player. If Castillo didn't win Gold Gloves (but was still great with the leather) and if he hadn't had like a 30-game hit streak, no one would think he is as good as he is. He's the type of player who the media hypes, but who's numbers really don't back it up. He had a 5.30 ERA in 2004, and a 6.22 ERA in 2005. Don't you think those skew his career numbers? While it's not OK to dismiss them, the fact the he has had trouble with his life and alcohol undoubtedly had a drastic effect on his numbers. Fortunately, the Spivey signing almost all-but-assures that Miles will be playing in AAA or on another team. I'll take my chance with his 3.57 ERA; more importantly, his career GB:FB ratio is 2.00, exactly. That's the thing that was most intriguing to Walt, in my opinion. Also, if I remember correctly, righties over the course of his career have hit .227 off of him. He'll share the set-up role with Rincon. The Orioles, who drafted him in the first round, Steve Stone, who called him a potential batting champion, and many scouts throughout the league disagree with you. This is from a scouting report at the beginning of his career: Larry Bigbie is one of those players how has the tools but has never put it together. It's pretty widely-accpeted that he has great potential. It's unlikely that he will fulfill the huge expectations he once had. However, for 900K, I will take a chance. Kinda like that Patterson fella... Lefties have his .217 against him in his career. La Russa loves the match-ups more than anyone, and he'll love having Looper and Rincon in the set-up role. Yep, he does. Bad signing. The offseason isn't over. But, regardless, the core of our team -- Mulder, Carpenter, Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds, Molina, Izzy -- is still there. That's what's most important. I'm not saying the rest of the team doesn't matter, but these guys we signed don't need to be All-Stars. Some of them have to the potential to be very productive, though.

David Wells is fat and pitched a perfect game. You're also reading the year-by-year breakdown wrong. Last season he was hurt and with two teams, so it looks like it was two years. In 2004, his OPS was .780. Higher than the .752 OPS that NL 2nd basemen averaged in 2005. In 2004, his OPS was .759. Higher than the .752 OPS that NL 2nd basemen averaged in 2005. In 2004, his OPS was .865. Higher than the .752 OPS that NL 2nd basemen averaged in 2005. In 2004, his OPS was .777. Higher than the .752 OPS that NL 2nd basemen averaged in 2005. He was hurt in 2005 (hence the misleading numbers, and also the cheap asking price). How is that not a high-reward signing? By all reports, he's quit drinking (which resulted in him being a lard-***) and sees a therapist once a week. Friends say he has lost weight. He admitted the pain he felt when looking into his mother's eyes and recognizing the pain he had caused. By all accounts he's a changed man. You can call me naive for "buying" the story surrounding him, but I think it's at least better than you, who seems to be ignorant on the topic of Ponson. And so does most of the league. As a result, they get practically nothing, salary-wise. It's a potentially-high reward situation. No one said it's a lock. But even if they do suck, you don't cripple your team. And Ponson is not blocking Reyes. If Ponson works out, Marquis will be traded to strengthen the rest of the team. Luna is not better than the career average Junior Spivey (but he is comparable to Grudz).

UK, you're misunderstanding what I'm saying. Earlier you posted a the "Passing the Trash" article. In response to that, I basically said that I don't question Walt's moves. But that was an overstatement. I'm talking cheap ones, like Womack, Grudz, Ponson, Spivey, etc... In my last post, I said: The comment I made about "not ever questioning" Jocketty was in regards to the cheap guys. That's ridiculous to say that. Of course some signings are just blatantly bad. Rafael Furcal is being paid more than Miguel Tejada: what chances are there that Furcal puts up Tejada-esque numbers? None. Tejada has roughly 70 points of career OPS on Furcal; Tejada's best season is an OPS of nearly .900... Furcal? He hasn't eclipsed an OPS of .800, not ever. Now how could you say that Furcal has reasonable upside? He doesn't. Not for the price. A signing is more than the player and his potential: you factor in salary, too. In 2002, Sidney Ponson posted an ERA of 3.77. In 2003, his ERA was roughly 3.75. This season, the average starting pitcher had an ERA of 4.29. If I told you could get a pitcher that could possibly give you numbers reasonably comparable to 2002 and 2003 for $2.5 million, would you do it? If he doesn't do that, you pay him $1 million. How is that not low-risk, high-reward? Sidney Ponson has a precedent of being a "good" player. Lemme make a quiz for you to take: Second Baseman A's Career: .293/.370/.356 (.726 OPS) - $5+ million Second Baseman B's Career: .270/.354/.436 (.790 OPS) - $1.5 million The average 2005 2nd baseman: .276/.338/.414 (.752 OPS) Who do you want? I'll take player B. Player A Luis Castillo. Player B is Junior Spivey. Now if Castillo and Spivey were both free agents, how could possibly tell me that each has an equal upside (factoring in price)? You could argue that Castillo is a better defensive player and that he can steal bases, but does that make him worth nearly three times as much as Spivey is making? I don't think so. Junior Spivey has the potential (potential he has reached in previous seasons) to do what All-Star players do, at a fraction of the cost. Sidney Ponson has the potential (potential he has reached in previous seasons) to be one of the best end-of-the-rotation starters, for $2.5 million. A good signing has a ton of upside. If it doesn't work out, your team doesn't take that big of a hit. If Spivey doesn't work out, we don't take that big of a hit. If Ponson doesn't work out, we don't take that big of a hit. If Furcal doesn't work out, the Dodgers take a big hit.

Er... When I say "Miggy," I mean, "Miguel Tejada." Not "Miggy Cabrera!" :oops:

I already stated multiple times in this topic that I didn't want Encarnacion OR Sanders. If I had to pick, I would probably prefer Encarnacion, simply because I think that Sanders will drop off in performance or games played based on his age. Question Hendry if he signs Jacque Jones to 3/$15m or if he gives Furcal $50m over 4 years. It's obvious what Jocketty does: low risk, high reward. Look at the contracts he gave out... he's not breaking the banks and crippling the future with the team. So, again: I don't like Encarnacion and think it was a bad signing. The article you mentioned also referred to Junior Spivey, Ricardo Rincon, Braden Looper and Sidney Ponson -- all of whom have had multiple seasons of above league average success in the league at some point in their careers. What's wrong with taking a flyer on Larry Bigbie at 900K? The only move of his I really have a problem with this offseason is Juan Encarnacion. Every other signing has a very reasonable upside and has the potential to make the signing look like a bargain.

I don't think that Carpenter will match his 2005. In fact, I know he won't. 2004 is reasonable, though. I already stated what I thought Lee did. In case you didn't read it the first time (which I don't think you did), I predicted he'd be well above-average.

I remember that quote. That was one that made me grin. I did also like the draft section. I vaguely remember them discussing family and attitude issues, and not even giving them a consderation for that reason. That was kinda neat. Uhm... one part that I remember really "wowing" me was when they, uh... I think they took the combined OBPs or something of all projected 9 players in the lineup to predict how many runs the team would score, and they were ridiculously close.

I saw that. Then again: - Was Carp trash when they signed him? - Was Womack? - Was Grudz? - Suppan? - Al Reyes? - etc I've learned not to question the moves Walt makes until after the season, because my initial reaction is usually wrong. But doesn't that suggest that La Russa sat him for a reason? He knew Reggie was old and he knew his body wasn't capable of playing as much as a full-time player needs to be capable of playing. Had Sanders played for closer to the 2-year, $6 million deal he originally signed for in 2004... I woulda been comfortable with it. But he got a 40% raise, so I'm glad we let him go. (Again, I'm not happy we got Juan, either... I didn't want either for the price.)

Thank you for acknowledging his switch to a new, pitching-friendly team, his surgery (and rebuilt arm as a result), his dramatic improvement in K:BB (went from about 4:1 from closer to 2-2.5:1 earler in his career), the implementation of his cut-fastball, etc. I can come up with a lot of things that would suggest why he improved so much. Fair enough, although I think you're wrong. If I felt that way I would've posted them there. But you openly entertained the "Carpenter on Cards Talk" trolling scenario earlier, so you're clearly not telling the truth when you say "bias free." By the way, did you even read my post? Or did you just read the opening line and post your retaliation? You realize that my prediction would give him (by a big margin) his second-best season of his career, right?

And you also overlook the fact that the "hoping" statement was tongue-in-cheek. Of course you want Carpenter to do worse and I want Derrek Lee to drop-off. My thoughts are (mostly) biased-free, as I showed with my numbers.

Because he posted a 3.45 ERA in 2004, and then came back in 2005 and had an even better season. Carpenter will not match 2005 next year, but I beleive that he will have 2004-esque numbers. While is 2004 season was unprecedented, his 2005 season was not, so your point does not stand. I guess this topic is comparable: I'm asking if you think that Lee will follow on the path of Chris Carpenter, or if he'll come back down to Earth. (but I don't expect Lee to get signficantly better [which Carp did from '04 to '05].) This isn't trolling, I presented my argument and stated why I felt it to be true. If I was trolling I wouldn't waste my time, I would say, "OMFG LEE Sox HE GONNA SUC IN 06."

Players I think are better than Miggy (no particular order; put the numbers so it was easier to count up): 1. Alex Rodriguez 2. David Ortiz 3. Albert Pujols 4. Scott Rolen (better career batting numbers all-around; even better defense than Migs) 5. Barry Bonds 6. Vlad Guerrero 7. Johan Santana 8. Mark Prior 9. Carlos Zambrano 10. Chris Carpenter 11. Travis Hafner (even if he can't play defense, the significant gap in offense makes up for it) 12. Roger Clemens 13. Jake Peavy 14. Roy Oswalt 15. Jason Bay (much more of a five-tool player than people think) 16. Manny Ramirez 17. Todd Helton 18. Miguel Cabrera 19. Lance Berkman (numbers a little bit misleading last year due to playing hurt) 20. Carlos Delgado I considered adding Dunn and Texiera to the list, but their home/road splits really scare me. They having a Coors-like affect, it almost seems like... And this is just a rough list from my head and looking at some of the 2005 leaders (and their career numbers, of course). So on a personal level, Miggy isn't even a top 20 player for me. While his durability is valuable, the elite hitters in the league hold a significant edge in offensive production, which more than matches what he does on defense.

First, if you don't know, I am a Cards fan, so keep than in mind. I'm hoping the guy has a significant drop-off in production. I'm not trying to troll, though, I just want to state my case and hear what you guys think. Here are a few reasons why I feel he'll come through in my hopes. His Power - His SLG% last year was in the top 75 all time for a single season. (it was actually 76th, but top 75 sounded better). Coming into last year, I did not personally consider Derrek Lee an elite power hitter. - His SLG% last year was 161 "points" higher than his career average. At .662, it was 154 points higher than his career high. - He hit 14 more home runs than he had in any other season. His Average - Last year Derrek Lee hit .335. His previous high was .282; that's a 53 point jump. - Last season was 59 points higher than his career average. - His 199 hits were a 31-hit increase over his personal high. Patience - Derrek Lee walked 85 times last year. His 162-game average for walks is 72 BB. While it looks like his patience may have increased, when you factor in the 23 IBB, it doesn't really appear that way. - In his 162-game average, he strikes out right around 136 times a year. If you throw out his 164-strikeout 2002 (which seems to be abnormally high), his average is closer to 129 K. Did 20 strikeouts make -that- much of a difference? All Around - Before last season, his highest OPS was .887. Last year's 1.080 was nearly 200 points above that. - His career OPS, .864, was also dwarfed by last season. Comparison Lee's year reminded me a lot like what Rolen did two years ago. Look at this comparison: ---Career Stats--- AVG OBP SLG OPS PLAYER .276 .363 .501 .864 Lee .284 .375 .515 .890 Rolen ---"Breakout" Year--- AVG OBP SLG OPS PLAYER .335 .418 .662 1.080 Lee .314 .409 .598 1.007 Rolen ::: Increases in career averages during "Career Year"::: AVG OBP SLG OPS PLAYER +59 +55 +161 +216 Lee +30 +34 +83 +117 Rolen If Rolen had his "career year," then what did Lee had? It was almost double the increase in production! In Closing What are you expecting out of Derrek Lee next year? And also, how do you explain this season? Anamoly? A hitter entering his prime? (which still would be hard to believe, given the ridiculous increase...) I know that he "learned" to hit to inside pitches that had given him trouble, but I don't think that was the difference between him being the best hitter in the game or not... I'll predict... .294/.374/.548 resulting in an OPS of .922

I disagree with Leivne.

'98: 135 games '99: 133 games '00: 103 games '01: 126 games '02: 140 games '03: 130 games '04: 135 games '05: 93 games 8 seasons averages out to 124 games per season. That means he misses, on average, roughly 38 games a year. That's nearly 24% of the season. How is missing almost a fourth of your games considered "durable?" And as already pointed out... he's 38. He was known as an injury-prone player coming into St. Louis. Call the injuries "fluke" if you want, but I don't think he's the lock you're expecting him to be.

Not nearly what Reggie did this year (.886 OPS) and not quite what he did himself last year (.795 OPS). Maybe a .780 OPS? And yes, I realize that's above his career average, but I still think it's realistic.

Encarnacion is nine years younger. While age isn't everything, Reggie will not continue to produce at a high level.... If he does, I'd venture to say that injuries will hamer himm to the point where it diminishes his production (like Larry Walker -- good numbers, but limited at-bats). And exactly what level do you expect Encarnacion to produce at? I'd rather have a less productive Juan Encarnacion in there for 130 games as opposed to spending any money on Sanders at all. I don't necessarily like the Encarnacion signing (I don't like it at all), but I'd prefer him to Sanders at comparable money, simply because of the durability factor. Neither >>>>>>>>>>> Encarnacion > Sanders (taking into account salary, age, etc)

Encarnacion is nine years younger. While age isn't everything, Reggie will not continue to produce at a high level.... If he does, I'd venture to say that injuries will hamer himm to the point where it diminishes his production (like Larry Walker -- good numbers, but limited at-bats).

Consider this: Tejada, with his .815 career OPS, isn't in the top 30 active players in OPS. Prior doesn't qualify, but if he were to, he would have the 6th-lowest career ERA of all starters in baseball. This trade would be so horrific for the Cubs that it wouldn't even be funny. I'm really hoping it goes through.

Fortunately, it looks like Miles will be playing in AAA or somewhere other than in the St. Louis Cardinals organization. Spivey will take his spot. (Bump the STL total up to $15.5 million.)

Now that would make sense... at least more than the Tejada deal. Manny Ramirez is an elite htiter. Miguel Tejada is an above-average hitter. Still, though... trade Prior, and Zambrano is really the only thing you can count on in that rotation. It's just not a good move for the Cubs...