Exile on Waveland

You would think so, but last year was a bizarro year for Sampson. They were toward the bottom of the league in defense but they had the best offense in the conference. I would guess whether that repeats itself or not will depend on their freshmen because their offense will be damn good. Those stats are a lot more indicative of the way the Big Ten plays than IU's lack of defense. How so? Everyone in the Big Ten plays good defense. Right, but among those teams they ranked 7th in defense, 1st in offense. I'm not saying they played terrible defense overall, it was just a twist on what you would have expected from Sampson. Everyone in the Big Ten plays good defense. The more you score, the more you give up. The quicker you shoot, the more possessions the other team gets. Ohio State was only seventh in scoring defense, think they weren't good defensively? In overall games, IU gave up 61.8 ppg, allowed opponents to shot only .416, and allowed only .310 shooting from 3 (best in the Big Ten). Those are good numbers. IU's defense wasn't as good as Illinois, but it was good. I do agree the offense was surprisingly efficient, but it wasn't great. It should be much, much better this year, though.

Hopefully Bill Lynch is available.

You would think so, but last year was a bizarro year for Sampson. They were toward the bottom of the league in defense but they had the best offense in the conference. I would guess whether that repeats itself or not will depend on their freshmen because their offense will be damn good. Those stats are a lot more indicative of the way the Big Ten plays than IU's lack of defense. Last year's defense actually was very good relative to personnel.* I would also think those seemingly anomalous stats may repeat themselves as IU figures to shot pretty early in the shot clock thereby creating more possessions for each team. *Though not in Iowa City.

I was going to post that I didn't think these three games are mismatches. They may turn out to be blowouts, but I don't think it's certain.

We'll see. Beasley is a stud, for sure, but will he remain on the team the entire year? Also, while I'm sure K-State wins a lot of games, will that actually equal being "really good"? The out of conference schedule isn't terrible, nor is the Big 12, but both offer a lot of easy victories. actually, the big XII is pretty bad this year, and I will be very surprised if he has as good a year as durant. I agree on both accounts. I was being diplomatic. I don't think the Big 12 is very good at all, but didn't want this thread to devolve into another conference pissing contest -- especially when teams have played either zero or one game.

Yeah, Pembroke is a real good looking offensive team. I did take some good from the defense though. Thru the first 14 minutes of the 1st half, Pembroke had just 12 shot attempts, and I think 2 FTs so it wasn't like we were fouling them. Of course, they were 9 for 12 in those shots, and only a couple were contested. However, there were spurts of great defensive pressure. At one point they had 20 points off turnovers in the 1st half, thanks to about 9 steals. In the 2nd half, they pulled away thanks to blocked shots. Eric Gordon and White are good defenders on the ball. On the ball D should even get better as Holman, Crawford, and Ellis all have long arms and the quickness to keep up with anybody. Help defense is horrible right now. But this is why they have a non-conference schedule. I'd hate to see them against an experienced Michigan St. offense right now. The game changed when IU moved Gordon to defend Pembroke's primary ball-handler. Gordon harassed Pembroke's point from that point on. I think, for the most part, the players are good one-on-one defenders. Team defense is porous at this point, but, if there's one thing not to worry about with a Sampson coached team, it's defense. This should improve, but, as I said, if it doesn't improve I'm very concerned about Xavier (if that match-up happens).

We'll see. Beasley is a stud, for sure, but will he remain on the team the entire year? Also, while I'm sure K-State wins a lot of games, will that actually equal being "really good"? The out of conference schedule isn't terrible, nor is the Big 12, but both offer a lot of easy victories.

Are you guys relying on 3's again this year? We're relying on bad coaching again this year. I hate Wainwright! I never liked the signing and I still don't. Why don't you guys through a ton of money at chris lowry? Because he's made it clear he's staying at SIU for the long haul. And #2, a move to DePaul would be a lateral move for him. I think I'm being lenient in that assessment. Yeah Bill Self was "in it for the long haul." Roy Williams was, "where he wanted to be." And no, although you are much better right now, you cannot offer the money or exposure that DePaul could in the big east. Agree. Believing a coach is "in it for the long haul" is laughable.

You mean it will help him recruit once he takes the Nebraska job or it will help him recruit Benn and Williams to transfer? Zooks not going anywhere I also can't imagine that Nebraska would hire him.

IU beat UNC Pembroke (Sampson's alma mater) 111-62. The Hoosiers have tons of firepower, but still need to tighten up defensively (especially rotations). That is probably to be expected considering only three returnees are currently playing. If they don't improve that, I think they'll lose a game early. A dribble-drive team like Xavier, or at Southern Illinois (though that will be tough even if IU plays very well -- last time they played there they lost by double digits and later played for the national championship). Still, the talent is impressive. *Edited for embarrassing grammar.

I just saw that. Mayo had 32, though. Oh, Mayo will get his, no doubt.

Congrats to the Illini. Wow, IU is bad. I just can't believe I saw the backup QB come in for one play and throw a pass -- much less a pass that was returned for a TD.

I'd be stunned if Illinois doesn't make the tournament. Indiana only plays at Michigan and Purdue at home. IU and Purdue should play twice every year. I'm also disappointed in the lone game, as IU would stand an excellent shot of taking both from the Boilers.

Isn't that what they are supposed to do against a DII team? I don't know how you can take anythign from a game against a DII team. I mean they are a DII team. Not saying U of I won't be good, but they were playing a DII team. Exactly my point :D I know. I was mocking you in return for you mocking me. Illinois brought back it's whole team it should be good defensively. The better be good on D, because they can't score worth a crap. Yea I was hoping you knew I was joking and not trying to be an ass. You are right, U of I will live and die with D, and they really need Pruit to be the talented big man that he is, and dominate. IF Brian Randle can tap into his potential on offense and stay healthy(big if I know) the Illini wont be too bad, and could give alot of teams fits. I dont look for anything spectacular from this season, but I dont think it will be a terrible season either. I expect a fifth place* Big Ten finish and an NCAA tourney berth for the Illini. They'll be a tough out, too, because of good coaching, size and defense. *Even with the move to 18 game conference schedules, schedule balance could move them up a spot or so (I doubt they're worse than fifth). I haven't looked at their schedule, so I don't really know. Maybe I should say I expect them to be the fifth best team in the Big Ten. Illinois gets a rough schedule with Iowa and Northwestern as the teams they play only once. That hurts their upward mobility. I think they can do better than fifth, but that makes a big difference -- Iowa and Northwestern figure to be the two worst teams and drop both games to most/all the better conference teams. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if they finish top-4 or even top-3.

Isn't that what they are supposed to do against a DII team? I don't know how you can take anythign from a game against a DII team. I mean they are a DII team. Not saying U of I won't be good, but they were playing a DII team. Exactly my point :D I know. I was mocking you in return for you mocking me. Illinois brought back it's whole team it should be good defensively. The better be good on D, because they can't score worth a crap. Yea I was hoping you knew I was joking and not trying to be an ass. You are right, U of I will live and die with D, and they really need Pruit to be the talented big man that he is, and dominate. IF Brian Randle can tap into his potential on offense and stay healthy(big if I know) the Illini wont be too bad, and could give alot of teams fits. I dont look for anything spectacular from this season, but I dont think it will be a terrible season either. I expect a fifth place* Big Ten finish and an NCAA tourney berth for the Illini. They'll be a tough out, too, because of good coaching, size and defense. *Even with the move to 18 game conference schedules, schedule balance could move them up a spot or so (I doubt they're worse than fifth). I haven't looked at their schedule, so I don't really know. Maybe I should say I expect them to be the fifth best team in the Big Ten.

Yes, this.

We’ll see. I doubt they’ll be better than last year; they lost a lot (Nick Young, Gabe Pruitt). I’m dubious about O.J. Mayo, too. He’s talented, no doubt, but is he really going to help them win? Specifically, against good teams? They are well-coached (shut your ears, Bulls fans).

Ha ha, touche. That's good stuff. So it begins...

Sell me on it. I'm open to being swayed. Frees up Marshall to be traded with Murton for real OF/SS. We have righty bullpen depth (expecially if we resign Woody). Or, if Prior comes back and is useful. It kicks Marquis out of the rotation. Demp > Marquis you know. The hit to our bullpen would be minimal. It'd help our rotation. He's no less valuable as a starter than Marshall, but Marshall has a lot more trade value. Thus trade him on the market. OK, I'll bite. Even if Dempster is a better starter than Marquis, this is the Cubs and Jim Hendry we're talking about. You're assuming it will be Dempster replacing Marquis, I think it's more likely Dempster joins Marquis and replaces Marshall. Now, I'm sure you're going to say there are better stats to judge them by, and, if so, fine, I'm open to being persuaded/proven wrong here. But last five years as starters in ERA+: Marquis: 115, 102, 74, 101; Dempster: 120, 86, 77, 63. I think Meph is saying the return on dealing Marshall could outweigh the drop from Marquis to Dempster. I agree with that. I just fear that Dempster to the rotation means a rotation with him and Marquis. Which isn't good.

Sell me on it. I'm open to being swayed. Frees up Marshall to be traded with Murton for real OF/SS. We have righty bullpen depth (expecially if we resign Woody). Or, if Prior comes back and is useful. It kicks Marquis out of the rotation. Demp > Marquis you know. The hit to our bullpen would be minimal. It'd help our rotation. He's no less valuable as a starter than Marshall, but Marshall has a lot more trade value. Thus trade him on the market. OK, I'll bite. Even if Dempster is a better starter than Marquis, this is the Cubs and Jim Hendry we're talking about. You're assuming it will be Dempster replacing Marquis, I think it's more likely Dempster joins Marquis and replaces Marshall. Now, I'm sure you're going to say there are better stats to judge them by, and, if so, fine, I'm open to being persuaded/proven wrong here. But last five years as starters in ERA+: Marquis: 115, 102, 74, 101; Dempster: 120, 86, 77, 63.

I think the NCAA will add sanctions, they should add sanctions. However, I just doubt it will be anything that seriously inhibits IU from putting good teams on the court.

mind telling us what crap school they played? North Alabama. (I only know this because of the incessant BTN ads they showed in the press box yesterday during Ball State v. IU.) Ball State handled DIII Anderson in an exhibition today. Butler, on Friday, should pose something of a bigger test. So a DII school, thats kind of what I figured. Color me unimpressed that IU was only up 14 midway thru the 2nd half. Obviously, it's hard to get a good read when playing a D-II school, but this is a week where MSU lost to one such team. Also, since it's obviously a preseason game, they inherently were playing a D-II school. Of course they were playing a "crap school." Defensively they were unimpressive (outside of blocked shots, which are often the byproduct of initial porous defense coupled with superior athleticism). Offensively, they were quite impressive. But it remains to be seen how they'll look against real competition. That was basically my point. Raws post was talking of IU being an offensive juggernaut and stuff, but come on how can you take anything away from a game that you were playing a DII school. I just found it funny that Raw left that part out of his post, and didnt mention their uninspired defensive effort. These preseason games tell you nothing, just like that Michigan State loss tells us nothing, Agreed. I'm not putting a whole lot of stock in Michigan State's loss. They still have Izzo and a lot of talent. Same for IU, they beat a scrub D-II school by 45. So? I'm not sure what that means. I'm disappointed by their defensive effort. They'll be able to outscore a lot of teams, but to be as good as they can be and beat good teams, they're going to have to play much harder and better there. However, I was there and this is easily the most talented and athletic team IU has had in a great number of years (1992-93 to be precise; 2000-01's talent level was close, but not athleticism). Of course, that also speaks to the doldrums IU has been in over the past decade and a half. I'm not sure what that will amount to, but IU does have a chance to be pretty damned good. I dont think you will find anyone arguing that IU has a chance to be damn good, I just took issue with Raws post. Also better enjoy it now, cause sanctions are on their way, I just wonder how strong they will be. I didn't mean to imply you or anyone said IU won't be good; and Raw's post likely was overly optimistic fanaticism. As for sanctions, we'll see. They self-reported and self-sanctioned after phone calls. In fact, none of Sampson's calls even violated NCAA rules, only his personal sanctions. I can tell you IU is not happy with Sampson (though why they didn't see this coming I have no idea; shame on them). I doubt the sanctions will have too detrimental affect, honestly.

mind telling us what crap school they played? North Alabama. (I only know this because of the incessant BTN ads they showed in the press box yesterday during Ball State v. IU.) Ball State handled DIII Anderson in an exhibition today. Butler, on Friday, should pose something of a bigger test. So a DII school, thats kind of what I figured. Color me unimpressed that IU was only up 14 midway thru the 2nd half. Obviously, it's hard to get a good read when playing a D-II school, but this is a week where MSU lost to one such team. Also, since it's obviously a preseason game, they inherently were playing a D-II school. Of course they were playing a "crap school." Defensively they were unimpressive (outside of blocked shots, which are often the byproduct of initial porous defense coupled with superior athleticism). Offensively, they were quite impressive. But it remains to be seen how they'll look against real competition. That was basically my point. Raws post was talking of IU being an offensive juggernaut and stuff, but come on how can you take anything away from a game that you were playing a DII school. I just found it funny that Raw left that part out of his post, and didnt mention their uninspired defensive effort. These preseason games tell you nothing, just like that Michigan State loss tells us nothing, Agreed. I'm not putting a whole lot of stock in Michigan State's loss. They still have Izzo and a lot of talent. Same for IU, they beat a scrub D-II school by 45. So? I'm not sure what that means. I'm disappointed by their defensive effort. They'll be able to outscore a lot of teams, but to be as good as they can be and beat good teams, they're going to have to play much harder and better there. However, I was there and this is easily the most talented and athletic team IU has had in a great number of years (1992-93 to be precise; 2000-01's talent level was close, but not athleticism). Of course, that also speaks to the doldrums IU has been in over the past decade and a half. I'm not sure what that will amount to, but IU does have a chance to be pretty damned good.

mind telling us what crap school they played? North Alabama. (I only know this because of the incessant BTN ads they showed in the press box yesterday during Ball State v. IU.) Ball State handled DIII Anderson in an exhibition today. Butler, on Friday, should pose something of a bigger test. So a DII school, thats kind of what I figured. Color me unimpressed that IU was only up 14 midway thru the 2nd half. Obviously, it's hard to get a good read when playing a D-II school, but this is a week where MSU lost to one such team. Also, since it's obviously a preseason game, they inherently were playing a D-II school. Of course they were playing a "crap school." Defensively they were unimpressive (outside of blocked shots, which are often the byproduct of initial porous defense coupled with superior athleticism). Offensively, they were quite impressive. But it remains to be seen how they'll look against real competition.

C'mon. Meph has been spot on on all his other predictions for mismatch or not, though. He has been wrong a few times, specifically about Michigan. But he's clearly right here. Using the criteria from the preceding weeks, Ohio State-Illinois is a mismatch. Florida-Auburn and Kansas-Nebraska both were labeled mismatches. Following the same logic, so is Ohio State-Illinois. Saying otherwise exposes bias. Now, is Ohio State-Illinois a mismatch? I don't think so, but that's not the issue.