Exile on Waveland

Makes sense. He's a very good coach (just like Bo Ryan is). But that style can tend to keep lesser teams close--which is a recipe for upsets in the tournament. Virginia is very good but it would not surprise to see them in a close game with an underdog in an early round. And that's never where you want to be.

Today was great--besides Chelsea (who, let's be honest, is going to win the league).

Yeah, 57th in AdjD is pretty much why I can't see Duke, but who knows right? Villanova is a tough one, but I just like something about them (20th AdjD, 7th AdjO). Yeah, 57th is ugly for a title contender. But Coach K has admitted that his brother's death negatively impacted his coaching, which coincided with their two bad losses (Notre Dame, Clemson). Not sure if there is a way to isolate that, or if that stretch even dragged them down the rankings defensively. I think they're better, at this point, than their overall numbers. They have the best coach, (arguably) the best player, and my eye test says they are really good. We'll see.

I know their defense is spotty, but I think you have to include Duke on that list. And I'm really not buying Villanova as a title contender.

On Iowa, it is disappointing. I watch that team and think their quality is/should match their Pomeroy ranking of No. 12. But results matter and it's hard to argue they're that good at this point.

Who ever said it was infallible? Pomeroy himself had said Wisconsin was overrated in the system in years past. "Infallible" was my word; but see my last sentence from the post you quoted. People contended that 2012 Wisconsin as No. 1 was credible because Pomeroy said so. Anyone arguing that had to believe Pomeroy was close to infallible because, otherwise, 2012 Wisconsin as No. 1 was risible. Edit: And Ken Pomeroy, the person, admitting that makes him even more credible in my book. A lot of people are loathe to admit mistakes; especially in something that they have worked hard on. So, to whatever extent you're claiming I'm knocking down a strawman, it was not aimed at Ken Pomeroy (and, see above, as to why I don't think it's a strawman anyway).

Still, it's not like Ken sits down on his computer at the end of the season and tweaks his #s in a way to make the national champion the best team. 10 of the past 11 years, the national champion has ended up #1 on the list (crazy 2011 Butler/VCU tourney being the exception). Sure, it's possible for a team to "break" the rankings if they run up the score on patsies and play close games against all the better teams, but he's constantly adjusting the effect those have. All the numbers are, really, is an adjusted efficiency margin, used to predict future outcomes in games. They're really successful on the whole, but even if a team has, say, a 90% chance of victory, they'll lose out 10% of the time. Well, yeah, the National Champion will not always be the best team/team that should be ranked No. 1. A great example of that is 2011; so the National Champion should not inherently be No. 1 in Pomeroy at the end of the season. But using 2012 Kentucky and 2013 Louisville to boost Pomeroy--when neither was No. 1 entering the tournament--is less than useful. Especially in the case of 2012 Kentucky, a team that everyone with eyes knew was the best team by a decent margin. And, again, my intent is not to criticize Pomeroy as a tool (I wouldn't be paying for a yearly subscription if I thought it wasn't a great one). My intent is, and has been, to criticize anything approaching slavish adherence to Pomeroy's numbers. Basketball is not baseball.

Nah, I'm pretty sure Wisconsin will still win the 2012 National Championship and Florida the 2013 National Championship. Kind of an odd thing to try to point out, since Kentucky and Louisville were #1 on KP the past two years. First of all, you know exactly what I'm saying (and it was a joking troll anyway). Second, neither Kentucky in 2012 nor Louisville in 2013 were No. 1 in Pomeroy entering the tournament. If you want to give Pomeroy special credit for such retrospective analysis, go right ahead, but it's not exactly surprising that the National Champion will end the season No. 1 in rankings. Louisville only became the No. 1 team in Pomeroy once they made the Final Four. They were never No. 1 prior to that. Florida, on the other hand, was No. 1 from January 12 through March 31 (and Florida--a team that never beat anyone higher than No. 24, and the only time they played an elite team got taken to the woodshed--was so obviously never the best team). As for Wisconsin in 2012, they were only No. 1 for a month in December/January, but that was patently absurd. Kentucky, on the other hand, was one of the best teams in recent memory and was not ranked No. 1 from December 10 (WATFORD) through February 11. Moreover, Kentucky was not--I repeat, not--No. 1 entering the NCAA Tournament (Ohio State was). Now, as I've said many times, this doesn't mean Pomeroy isn't a great tool. It is. In fact, it's the best. The problem is when people start taking its numbers as bond. It's not infallible. Again, you had people thinking 2012 Wisconsin was a credible No. 1 team in 2012 because Pomeroy said so. That was risible.

Nah, I'm pretty sure Wisconsin will still win the 2012 National Championship and Florida the 2013 National Championship.

Absolutely insane that IUs last 5 games are @ Wisc, vs. Iowa, vs. Ohio State, @ Nebraska, @ Michigan. I know the Iowa game is rescheduled but still. They host Nebraska. Already customarily blew a double-digit lead in Lincoln.

Time warp?

The lottery exists; the Sixers can have the top pick in the draft. And, especially in the East, I would vehemently disagree that such a core would "suck for a long, long time." Vehemently.

Amazing.

And, frankly, IU has been bad four of the last six and six of the last eleven seasons. It's almost status quo now.

Jeez. How much more fawning over Iowa do you expect from this IU fan?

It's assumed. Hard to imagine why he'd stay.

His contract buy-out remains huge. So, for practical purposes, I'm not sure it matters. But things could become very difficult for him next year fan-base wise (and next year figures to be worse, in my opinion, considering Vonleh will be an early entry and the frontcourt will be basically vacant). I think that's the biggest problem--this year was always going to be a rebuilding type year, but without a frontcourt there's nothing being built towards. Who knew that recruiting might become the issue? I actually don't see them being much worse next year. They aren't very good this year. And I can see a huge improvement from a couple guys (mainly Troy Williams). Still won't be a good enough team, though. IU is about to lose a lottery-pick big man, a player that is one of the most talented guys to wear an IU uniform in years (I might even assert since the early 80s). Without him, their frontcourt will be Hanner Perea (maybe), Devin Davis (tweener), Jeremy Hollowell (not really even a tweener, maybe a stretch-four), and ??? (guessing they'll pick up some late recruit or fifth-year transfer). They are going to get brutalized inside. I will be absolutely shocked if Hollowell is on this team next year. Hell, he almost left after last year. Next year's roster could look a LOT different than this year's, even with only 2 seniors and Vonleh as expected departures. Yes, I suspect you will be correct about the first point; just did not want to get into transfer speculation. I agree . . . but counting on Spring recruits and one-year transfers to fill large voids is a dangerous game. It's possible there will be a deus ex machina to fix the frontcourt, but I find it unlikely. And, either way, it's no way to run a program.

His contract buy-out remains huge. So, for practical purposes, I'm not sure it matters. But things could become very difficult for him next year fan-base wise (and next year figures to be worse, in my opinion, considering Vonleh will be an early entry and the frontcourt will be basically vacant). I think that's the biggest problem--this year was always going to be a rebuilding type year, but without a frontcourt there's nothing being built towards. Who knew that recruiting might become the issue? I actually don't see them being much worse next year. They aren't very good this year. And I can see a huge improvement from a couple guys (mainly Troy Williams). Still won't be a good enough team, though. IU is about to lose a lottery-pick big man, a player that is one of the most talented guys to wear an IU uniform in years (I might even assert since the early 80s). Without him, their frontcourt will be Hanner Perea (maybe), Devin Davis (tweener), Jeremy Hollowell (not really even a tweener, maybe a stretch-four), and ??? (guessing they'll pick up some late recruit or fifth-year transfer). They are going to get brutalized inside.

His contract buy-out remains huge. So, for practical purposes, I'm not sure it matters. But things could become very difficult for him next year fan-base wise (and next year figures to be worse, in my opinion, considering Vonleh will be an early entry and the frontcourt will be basically vacant). I think that's the biggest problem--this year was always going to be a rebuilding type year, but without a frontcourt there's nothing being built towards. Who knew that recruiting might become the issue?

2 of those teams aren't really very good and the other one was injured when they played them? I don't even care. There are 5 ranked Big Ten teams including UM, UM has played 5 games against the other 4 teams, only 1 of those games at home, and they are 4-1. I'm happy even if the Big Ten isnt as great as expected Those are very good wins and it's stupid that anyone is making Michigan fans rationalize them (while the Michigan State game may deserve an injury caveat, Michigan State has played well enough through the injuries that it is still a good win). Road wins against Pomeroy Nos. 12, 16, and 17, is doing work. Of course, Pomeroy No. 58 was too much to handle. :wink:

Well, that was . . . unexpected. Oh, and fun.

I'm not even sure if IU should be expected to make the NIT, considering the new(-ish) selection process. The roller-coaster isn't going to end just because we want it to now that it's at a high-point.

At home with both Dawson and Payne out, Iowa almost has to win that game, imo. I overreact, a lot but I still don't feel safe about a tournament birth yet. I'm sure we'll still be a lock easily but a win tonight would have made me feel extremely comfortable. The conference title hopes just took a major, major hit though. Really though we had a shot. You guys are one of the best fifteen-twenty teams in the country; calm down, you're making the tournament. But, as a fan of your current team, it sucks watching them lose basically every close game.

Yeah. Some are dumb ditzes, some are successful professionals.

The three posts from IU fans about IU's win made this thread unreadable for a week?