davell

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1077124.html Piliere's latest mock, Cubs taking Archie. Still has Rendon going 2. Part of me really thinks the Lindor stuff is just a ploy to help ease the pricetag of Rendon down a little.

I agree completely that our system needs an infusion with the draft, especially since I doubt we enter next year with Brett still eligible for a list. For now, my list looks like this: 1 Brett Jackson- Slumping some after the injury, but he's kind of streaky as it is. Think he's top 50 for sure, maybe top 25, haven't made out a full list in a while. Think he can be a .350ish OBP guy with double digit homers and plenty of steals as soon as next year for us. 2 Trey McNutt- Kind of an indictment that he's 2, in my opinion. I don't think his stock has dropped much, but I'll feel alot better if he comes back from this injury and pitches well the rest of the season. His innings are already going to be limited somewhat this year. Doubt he's ready for the majors before midseason next year personally. Top 100 guy, with the ability(with health) to move quite a bit anyway. 3 Matt Szczur- Love what he's doing and think if he continues even close to what he's doing now in Daytona, he'll be a top 75ish guy next year. Hell, I thought he was going to be a longterm project, doesn't really look that way to me now. I could see him opening in Tennessee next year at this point. 4 Josh Vitters- Big dropoff here, but I'm not giving up on him. His K rate is SO low, I think a little tweak and he could start making some waves possibly. 5 DJ LeMahieu- I think the power is developing, wish he didn't have position questions, because I think he's going to hit. 6 Jae Hoon Ha- Age-wise, he's doing great. Kind of mirrors Vitters from a plate discipline concern area. Looks like he'll have solid pop if he can stick in CF obviously. If he moves though, I'm thinking 4th OFer upside is all. 7 Dallas Beeler- Probably letting the promotion get to me a tad here, but he'd have been 9-10 anyway for me. Love his build and think he's got an excellent shot at becoming our biggest mover outside of Szczur by the time the season ends. 8 Micah Gibbs- The walk rate and the plus defense has me hopeful we have a future starter here. 9 Austin Kirk- Is it just the curve in A ball giving guys fits or is it more? His velo is OK and I'm hoping he's much more of a prospect than Rusin or Raley. The K rate has me excited and hope he gets half a year in Daytona to show us more. 10 Robert Whitenack- Would have been 4th on my list, but was starting to leave him off completely since he may be MIA until 2013 and figure another year of getting stuff back at that point. Maybe they move him to the pen at that stage? No idea, but it stung when I saw TJS and his name right beside it. He'd obviously had the best start to the season of any of our pitching. 11 Justin Bour 12 Jeff Beliveau 13 Ryan Flaherty 14 Nick Struck 15 Aaron Kurcz 16 Dae Eun Rhee 17 Kevin Rhoedrick 18 Matt Cerda 19 Rafael Dolis 20 Hayden Simpson

I'm not aware of a single news item linking him to us, so maybe it IS just a random drawing for Wilken's usual surprise. If we did take him, he at least does have the upside we'd be looking for. But, he also has red flags galore. Potential weight issues, age questions and whether or not he'll be a rotation guy or back end of the pen guy. Even as far as upside guys go, there's plenty of them that just aren't THIS risky. If he somehow lasted to us in the 2nd round, I'd be all for the pick, but at 9? No.

Perfectgame's final mock has us taking Jose Fernandez, but it seemed like he was just going with his gut on Wilken always bucking the industry and taking "his guy".

Wittenmeyer's article has scared me at this point, to be honest. If we go "signability" with our first pick or even if we go with Starling or Bradley(5 year deals with less strain this year), I'm going to be wondering whether or not we're going to be able to do much else until I see some results on Day 2. I'm HOPING that if this thing IS true and we'll be limited for a few years on the major league level, we'll spend big here, since it's still a relatively small amount in the grand scheme of things altogether. There's no reason we shouldn't spend 10 mill or so in this draft, since it's so deep. If Lindor does go 2nd, I still think Arizona goes with Hultzen or Bauer and Baltimore goes with either Hultzen or Bundy at 4. I can see Bauer dropping to 8 in this scenario to Cleveland, if Arizona takes Hultzen. Baltimore takes Bundy and then Rendon and Bubba go 5 and 6. Arizona could then take Gray or Barnes, leaving the Cubs with Bradley, if they choose to take him.

2 of the Dominican signees that got big bonuses had huge games today. Jeffry Baez went 2-4 with a double, 2 walks and 2 steals while Daniel Sanchez went 2-4 with 2 walks, 2 homers, and 2 steals. :D

On the other hand, here's probably worst case scenario. :D Pirates-Cole, Mariners-Rendon, Arizona-Hultzen, Baltimore-Bundy, KC-Bauer, Wash-Starling, Arizona-Gray, Cleveland-A Bradley....... We still get our choice of Jed Bradley, Jungmann, Barnes, Springer, Norris, Lindor, and Guerrieri. With Mahtook and Meyer being possibilities as well, I guess.

If Cole goes 1 and Seattle passes on Rendon, how far is it possible he could fall? Arizona doesn't appear to be taking anyone other than Hultzen at 3, Baltimore looks to be on pitching as well and I doubt KC would take him. Washington? If Seattle takes Bubba, I guess this is the landing spot? Arizona won't take him at 7, leaving Cleveland and then us. Our best case scenario goes something like this, I guess: Pitt- Cole, Sea-Lindor, Ariz-Hultzen, Balt-Bundy, KC-Bauer, Wash-Starling or Rendon, Ariz-Gray, Cleve-Ross leaving us with the option of Rendon OR Starling being there, along with Archie Bradley too. It'd be nice to have that dilemma.

Why do you think they have Meyer so high? I could understand the Cubs keying in on him if this was Pre-Wilken, but the Cubs have really shied away from big bodied pitchers since Wilken came along. I'm going off the whole upside thing. While his downside is someone that never makes it out of AA, it's at least plausible he has the highest upside of any college pitcher in the draft. While he's not a guy I would take, part of me is almost convinced that we need upside guys so badly, I'd be OK with taking him, for that reason alone.

Ben Badler tweeted that Carlos Penalver is opening some eyes down in the DSL.

I do too. If you draft him and get him signed relatively early, I could see him getting a taste of AA before the end of the season and probably hit the major league rotation by the middle of next year. He may not have the supposed upside of some of these guys, but he's probably as close to a sure thing, along with Hultzen and Bauer of anyone in the class. And a solid number 3 is nothing to sneeze at. If you go this route, you probably have extra cash available in the budget to take a shot on someone with a very big pricetag later on too, or save it for IFA's.

I think Baez is probably after Starling and (hopefully) Bradley. I forgot about him. I'd definitely have him over Mahtook or Gray. Not sure whether I think the Cubs like him more than Lindor though.

Here's my 5 guys, in order, of how I think the Cubs are thinking: Starling Meyer A Bradley Lindor Mahtook and Gray as a coin flip This assumes Rendon, Cole, Hultzen, Bauer, and Bundy are off the board. Although my guess is Bauer is not someone the Cubs would take, even if he were to be there. Hultzen could be another guy we pass on, if it's truly an "upside" pick. Only reason I have Mahtook as a possibility is the LSU connection.

Brett hit a 2 run homer. Hicks had another solid outing. Not much else going on of note for us.

As far as Mahtook goes, I am a fan. And if we were picking in the 15-20 range, I'd be all for him. But, we're not, and there's bigger upside guys out there we can take. I love Callis mentioned we'd go upside in this draft too, because we sorely need it. Back to Mahtook, I think he's got more power than Brett, less speed and will wind up on a corner. I think he's a fairly safe guy too, I just think we need a potential system changer and I don't think he's it. If Wilken lets Hendry talk himself into Mahtook, because of all the LSU "success" we've had, I'll be all for getting rid of him(and Hendry, of course) at the end of the season. We need to go balls to the wall with this draft. Take BPA all the way and spend, spend, spend. Get them signed. We'll probably know pretty early on(by the 4th-5th round) if we have any hope at all of actually doing this.

Mostly lack of upside. He's got 5 tools, but none of them profile as plus. And unless his defense improves, he'll probably be relegated to a corner spot. He's just kinda underwhelming for a first rounder. Edit: That's not to say he's a particularly bad pick or anything... just not the franchise changer we all find ourselves hoping for. I get so addicted to draft stuff in all sports that I could probably talk myself into just about anyone. Let's pretend the Cubs have the third pick, and Cole and Rendon are off the board. Who's your top 5? Bundy Bauer Hultzen(very safe and to me, he's a 2) Starling A Bradley(in 10 minutes I may have him above Hultzen, those last 3 are tough for me)

To me, at this exact stage, I think pitching should be a no-brainer. Our major league staff has 2 high paid guys who are decent but not long term answers for us in Z and Dampster. It has a very average pitcher in Wells(who some are going to say is better than that) and Garza, who's about the only guy I have any confidence in, as far as even being here 2 years from now. Cashner has yet to prove anything, Simpson needs more time, but hasn't shown nearly enough for anyone to feel confident that he's going to be a frontline starter. McNutt hasn't been able to stay healthy this year and Whitenack is heading towards TJS. The draft is pitching heavy to begin with and it appears as if it's our biggest need too. No brainer to me, at this point.

Geez.

I think our OF next year will be Soriano/B Jackson/new guy or Byrd. I think Byrd gets dealt, if he comes back this year and does OK. If that's the case and Colvin hasn't earned a fulltime spot(which is tedious, to say the least). We'll have another decent 4th OF type, but not one that costs what it'd cost to bring Kosuke back, in my opinion. I figure Campana is the odds on favorite to be our 25th man for the next couple of seasons.

Chats galore today. Law and Piliere right now and Mayo at 2ET.

If we decide to sell, what do we really have that's tradeable? Fukudome? Yeah, if we eat alot of money and even then, we're not getting much of a return. Aramis? Doubtful, because of the option that triggers. And unless he gets really hot, he's not going to bring much either. Dempster? Nah, he ain't getting dealt, unless we fire Hendry beforehand. Once again, we'd probably eat some money, although he'd bring the best return out of any of what's been mentioned so far. Grabow? Yeah, right. Soriano? Nope. Byrd? Not going to be ready most likely. Probably gets moved in the offseason though. Z? Nah, we'd have to eat too much money again. Reed? Yeah, but seriously, what's he worth? Very little. The only guy we have that may bring a return is Pena. I have no idea how his deferred money would work out, but if we agreed to pay that(5 mill) the team acquiring him wouldn't be on the hook for much at all. So, he could at least fetch us a package like the one Lee got us last year. In the end though, it's going to be a VERY disappointing deadline for us, unless we go the other direction and go ahead and BUY, gearing up for next year. Maybe some guys who are arb eligible that the team doesn't anticipate keeping very long or something like that. Basically, something that's built for the near future, even if we're giving up prospects in order to get it.

There have been a decent amount of rumors the Mariners could take Bubba at 2.

I'm to the point where I watch Castro hit and that's it. Maybe I'll do the same with LeMahieu and I'll certainly watch Cashner pitch when he gets back. If Brett Jackson or McNutt make it up this year, I'll follow them very closely as well. On the other hand, I follow the minors a ton. Watch or listen to as many games as I can. I'm not to the point where I feel we've got no where to go, but if the Cubs don't spend big in the draft this year, after saying this is the direction the team's going to take, I'll probably start to think Ricketts is no better than the Trib. All I want is to see that we're committed to one direction or another, not floundering like we are currently.

I think DJ has the ability to wind up being a .300 hitting, 10 homerish type with lots of doubles to go with it. His OBP will never be high, since he doesn't walk much at all, but that's solid production at 2B. I figure Barney will be more of a .280ish hitter with probably 60% of the extra base pop DJ has the ability to provide and along the same walk rate as what we'd get from DJ.

I know you don't draft for specific need, but with Jackson, Ha, and Szczur all looking good, maybe that DOES have something to do with who the Cubs take? Maybe the fact that we're in need of frontline potential pitching puts that more to the forefront possibly? I guess I could see an instance where we'd take the pitcher over the outfielder even if the OFer had a tad more potential, if the pitcher seems to be considered safe(or as much so, as a pitcher can be anyway) Put it this way: If Bubba is on the board and we take Gray, Jungmann, or Barnes instead of him, I'll at least see where the Cubs could be coming from.