davell

Total speculation, but I saw on PSD someone said the Rangers have offered Darvish 6/45 while he supposedly wants 5/100. If this is true(big if) then if they miss out on him, they'd immediately become players on Garza again. I think the rumor was they offered Tampa more than we did for him originally, but they wanted him out of the AL. Maybe we're waiting to see how all that goes, before we decide for sure what to do with him? I think January 17th is the date for Darvish, but I could be wrong.

If we were to go out and get BOTH Cespedes and Soler and not trade Garza, maybe just Byrd, between now and the beginning of the season, our major league payroll would be over 120 mill and it looks like we should expect at least one Maholm/Francis type guy signed. Granted, I see your point about where's the rest of it going to go, but I really think we have the chance to spend around 10ish on IFA. Maybe you're right though, even with that happening, there's probably 3 to 5 mill left over that could go to Wood.

I figure LF is wide open if Soriano isn't there. If Byrd is still on our team for the start of the season, the only way I see him anywhere other than CF is if we sign Cespedes. And even then, Cespedes is going to have to show he doesn't need at least a tad of seasoning in AAA himself. If anything, Byrd WILL be dealt when it's time for Brett to come up. My guess is Theo and Jed will want to inspect all the potential "assets" we have and giving time to both Campana and Sappelt would probably be of interest to them.

I hate saying I don't care if he's a Cub or not, but I really don't. The money he probably is wanting could be spent smarter by us anyway, since we're not contending in 2012. Maybe we're just not a match? Just business, from both sides.

If we cut Soriano, or somehow find a trade partner, unless we sign Cespedes, I think our LF spot will be a platoon of Campana/Sappelt.

First off, I didn't even know there WAS a 9 mill buyout. Secondly, it got waived?

With the convention starting late this week, I expect a couple of moves before then. Wood to be resigned, being one of them. Which means another move has to be made, to clear a 40 man spot. My guess is Byrd dealt to Washington, Atlanta, or Texas for minor league pitching. I also think this is the make or break time for a Garza trade, with arb numbers coming out next week. I think after that, it'll be time to extend him or trade him at the deadline.

I count the entire 40 man, giving 200,000 to everyone that's not currently in the majors. Some get slightly more, some less, but I average it out to that. Are you counting Silva's buyout and Pena's deferred cash? That's an extra 7 mill right there.

You have 18 months to pay him. Same if you trade him and send money towards the other team. The one positive of this, is he's off the books a year earlier. Of course, this and next year's payroll would go up 9 mill, if you cut him or traded him and took on the entire deal. Levine mentioned our payroll looks to be in the 120ish range for 2012, which is fine, if we're allocating monies towards IFA's. But, we're at 110ish right now for the entire 40 man, so cutting Soriano leaves us no room at all, without making trades.

I'd argue the problem for the Orioles right now is a) Some of their young arms have really faltered and have serious concerns (Matusz/Tillman). They had four young arms they were looking forward to ... right now, of that foursome (the aforementioned duo and Britton/Arrieta), they look to have 1 good starter, 1 inconsistent starter, and 2 gigantic question marks. No team should ever realistically hope that 4/4 top prospect arms should hit, but it sure feel like they expected 3 of them to. b) A relatively weak system. A couple stud guys in Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado, but really, this system is pretty bad right now. There's Schoop, a whole bunch of folks from this draft class (which doesn't look that great), Bobby Bundy. c) (and why I responded) A lack of quality trade chips/trade chips they over-value. I'm not sure too many teams are going to fork over the quality assets that the Orioles believe they should get for Nick Markakis and Jeremy Guthrie, but the Orioles aren't moving them unless it's a quality return. Markakis' power decline has a lot of folks alarmed, and he's signed down for fairly big money (3/42 left with an additional option year at 17.5 or a 3 mil buyout). Guthrie's a Randy Wells/Chris Volstad/Travis Wood level pitcher masquerading as an ace and not exactly cheap. Brian Roberts is an injury prone 2nd baseman now, past his prime, and still locked down for 2/20. Reynolds is Mark Reynolds, a poor fieldng slugger. One of the few guys they should trade (only 2 years until FA) is Adam Jones. Jones, though, is a tough guy to value. Orioles look at him as an emerging stud, while a lot of folks look at his as a poor fielding, questionable discipline guy. They want elite chips ... I'm not sure teams are going to give elite chips for him. Good, perhaps. One guy I would move, if I were them, is JJ Hardy, but I doubt they'll do so. I don't know if he can replicate the offensive season he just had, so this might be peak sell time. In regards to C, its somewhat of a testemet to why our front office team is so valuable. It could be said that we have our own share of players we over value and lack of good trade chips. However, aside from Garza who has real value our guys are willing to move guys for packages that might not look wins at the time but are best for us. Sometimes when a trade is made its OK to let the other guy walking away feeling like they won as long as you get something you really need in return for May something that doesn't fit in with your plans. For example, acquiring Volstad and minimal salary relief for Zambrano may have seemed like a win for the Marlins, especially if Ozzie can keep Z in line and get a great back end starter out of him, and that's what he'd be there with JJ, Buehrle, Sanchez, and Nolasco in the rotation. Volstad may have seen like junk to most of us, but Theo loves these former top prospects who are still young enough that theres a glimmer of hope that he can be useful for us long after Big Z would be gone anyway. Let's not give "our guys" too much credit. Any team trading ML talent for prospects doesn't look like a "win", but they think it's what's best for them. Obviously, the team receiving the ML talent (Marlins) are in a win-now mode while the Cubs are in a rebuilding mode. Wait, you basically don't think you can win a trade unless you're the buyer? Because, as far as trades have gone with "our guys" so far, we've "won" all 4 of them. They've done a phenomenal job in that department.

Levine said today on Talkin' Baseball that he now expects Garza to be a Cub on opening day. I guess it makes sense, if we can't get what we're looking for in return. Personally, I think if he gets dealt, it'll be this week, since arb numbers are due after that.

Cutler is having some fun with Brandon Marshall on Twitter tonight. I'd love to trade for him, Cutler and him were great in Denver.

I actually have a feeling that our 2012 team, with or without Garza, minus Byrd, and probably minus Marmol and maybe Soto by the deadline, will still win as many games as the 2011 version, because of how much better our guys are at piecing things together.

I don't know where the big bat could from, since the FA class is pretty sad looking and it looks like it'd have to be coming from 2B, 3B, or the OF. We do know Theo likes Ethier and while he's not special, a lineup with Castro/Cespedes/Ethier/Rizzo in the middle could be very formidable. Pitching-wise though, you could sign one of the big names, like Greinke and then make the big trade for King Felix, Timmy, or Price, who all appear at least fairly likely to be on the market by then. A lineup like I just mentioned, followed by a rotation starting out Felix/Greinke/Garza would be phenomenal. Yeah, Kool Aid drinking galore, but why not?

Don't get me wrong though, I can still see Garza and Soto being dealt, IF the return is solid enough obviously. By the way, to get to that 65 mill figure, I counted Soriano at 18, Garza at 12, Castro at 4, Soto at 7, Volstad at 4.5, Cespedes at 10 and our bullpen at 8 total(Shark, Dolis, Carpenter, Russell anchoring it)

You know what? Damn, you're right. Now, I have been all in on trading Garza, but extending him for 4 or 5 years could really work. Looking at your squad, I'd replace Sappelt with Cespedes. And it's at least plausible one of Stewart or LaHair makes it. I'm still dealing Marmol though. Still, a lineup including Soto, Castro, Rizzo, Brett, and Cespedes with those 3 in the rotation and a bullpen, minus Marmol is only going to cost us around 65 million INCLUDING Soriano. Leaving us 65 to 70 mill to fill a couple of spots in the lineup and a couple of very nice pitchers. And, since my guess is we'll have built the system up quite a bit by then, a couple of trades for more lower priced super productive guys seems reasonable. I hadn't really looked at how a team full of what we've acquired looks like with what's left, because I've been thinking everything's gone, other than Castro. Doesn't have to be that way though at all, it's certainly doable. And sustainable, on top of that.

No doubt. I'm pretty damn sure that heading into 2013, we'll all be excited with what's been done and what the outlook is. But, I don't think playoffs is probably realistic(assuming we dismantle this thing completely) until 2014, barring some luck or unforeseen circumstances. The scenario I brought up a few posts ago just seem too unrealistic to actually happen.

To me, trading Soto is the smart thing to do, as soon as a market is there for him. In 2013, he'll be in his last arb year, 30 years old, and wanting a long term deal. Which I wouldn't feel comfortable with at all. Let Castillo have a shot. Hell, if you draft Zunino, it's possible he's ready by 2014 or you can trade for someone, once the depth of the top end of your system is there. Assuming Castillo isn't a starter obviously. Dempster? He's expensive, so he's going to either have to be having an excellent 2012 or we'll have to eat some money, but he's not going to be a member of the 2013 Cubs most likely. Marmol? Same as Soto, trade him when there's a market. One of Samardzija, Dolis, or Carpenter should be OK as a closer.

I think a TON has to go right for us to contend in 2013, but I guess it's possible. Cespedes needs to be signed and be a legit middle of the order hitter by then. Sign as many IFA's as possible the rest of this offseason, trade Garza, Marmol, Byrd, and Soto to acquire as much talent as possible between now and the deadline. Draft college pitching early and often(ready by 2014 in perfect world). One of LaHair or Stewart needs to become legit .800 OPS guy(if LaHair, he plays LF). Castro takes another couple of steps forward. Rizzo and Brett are solid regulars by then. Wood or Volstad becomes a mid rotation guy or more, the other is a 4. Turner, or someone else we've received for Garza becomes a frontline starter. Bullpen has bunch of power arms from system in it and succeeding. Through FA or trade, we add a star bat and pitcher. Possible? Nah, I can't even convince myself. 2014 at the earliest.

Short of DFA'ing Soriano, the more I look at it, there's no chance of us trading him, unless we're taking back an equally awful contract, of which I haven't seen.(other than Wells) Pat Burrell, Jonny Gomes, Raul Ibanez, Vladimir Guerrero, Ryan Ludwick, Luke Scott, Rick Ankiel, Cody Ross, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Manny Ramirez are all available and can be had for much less than Soriano, unless we're eating 50 mill basically. Even then, these guys are almost definitely going to be signing one year deals. Getting back a former highly ranked prospect, that's only a year or two removed from that? Abolutely ZERO chance. I thought it might be possible too, but after looking at who all's still out there, it ain't happening folks.

I think of Rirrutto, from Billy Madison.

The more I look at AL teams, I don't see a market whatsoever for Soriano. There are still DH types out there in FA and a few others available for trade, like Trumbo or Morales. We may be stuck with Soriano this year. On the other hand, I think both Garza and Byrd will be dealt by mid January, if we're dealing them. Garza, because we'll have to exchange arb numbers soon and any team trading for him would have to prefer starting from their own negotiating standpoint. Byrd, because Cespedes is going to be eligible right around then. My guess is we'd clear a spot, if we're serious about him. Same goes for Soler, if it takes a major league deal for him, which is my guess.

Our 40 man breaks down like this to me: Byrd, Garza, and Soriano will probably be gone before the end of the month. Along with one of Baker or Dewitt. Soto, Marmol, and Dempster will probably be gone by July 31st. Cabrera, Lendy Castillo, Gaub or Maine, Mateo, Weathers, and Bianchi are all guys I could see outrighted, if it came down to it.

Let's ask Bigbird! Seriously though, I'd trade Soriano and 9 mill total for Roberts any day of the week, not even bothering asking for a prospect or two in return. Reason being is it's 3 at 18 per versus 2 at 10 per. If you send 9 mill, you're still saving 25 million total. Plus, Roberts is a better lottery ticket to bounce back than low level question marks anyway. This being said though, Angelos is still in love with Roberts, he isn't going anywhere.

Does anyone else think if we're going to deal Garza, it'll be before we have to exchange arb numbers? I would think any team trading for him would want to have their own sayso in what they start the negotiations from.