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davell

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Everything posted by davell

  1. That seems like it's going to be *the* question for awhile now. We've got a league-average (slightly better even) offense in the majors, plenty of interesting young-ish MLB position players and a ton of top hitting prospects. But the pitching is very thin after the immediate major leaguers. Try to send multiple players out in trades(DeJesus/Feldman package?) to get best pitching prospect(s) we can?
  2. After getting freaked out with the Mormon, I've liked everything else. Toonster, I definitely think we'll take one of the major over slot types in the 11th. They probably are playing it safe with not knowing exactly where they stand with Bryant. Houston appears to be doing the same. I just can't imagine Boras getting full slot for either guy.
  3. He had some rotator cuff tendinitis, missed about a month earlier in the season. Understand why he dropped, but a solid risk at this stage.
  4. Damn, Dylan Covey lost a ton of money in a couple of years.
  5. I'd kind of like a C at some point before we skimp out with seniors.
  6. Gonna be tough trying to figure where to slot Zastryzny and Skulina inside our top 30, but I guess both get in there.
  7. Maybe our front office didn't subscribe to BA and just did some scouting and then took some players they liked. shhhhhhhhh that makes too much sense What fun is a draft if you can't game-theory the hell out of it? No, you're right. Lets not even attempt to wonder why our early round picks are relative unknowns. Makes about as much sense as your variance [expletive] you come up with every day.
  8. Possibly and/or Bryant is going to take slot+ to sign. If Bryant costs overslot, I'd have went a different direction.
  9. I've got no clue what we're doing. Maybe saving to make a serious run at Jones or Serrano? Maybe Whitson or Sheffield?
  10. I think we'll get a decent gauge of Bryant(and Appel's) signability, with the 1st two selections of this round. If Houston takes another college guy, my guess is we will too and neither team is expecting much in terms of a discount whatsoever. If Houston takes the tough sign type, I think we will as well. I doubt Boras would be tough with one of the top 2 and not both obviously. With slot value down to the 700's for this pick, its less risky to swing and miss(the 5% money comes close to recouping it), so I'm hopeful it's the tough sign HS kid for us in the 3rd.
  11. If we take a college guy, I want Wahl over Mitchell. There are plenty of HS guys I'd be completely fine with it at 75. Perfect world, it'd be Jones, doubt we've got enough to sign him though.
  12. But Buxton wasn't a Boras client. True, but didn't Boras and Appel want 6 last year from the Astros and they passed for Correa at 4.8? I just don't see Appel getting more than that this time around, nor do I see Bryant getting more than him.
  13. we really, really need to come up with some pitching via trade this deadline, no matter what happens next in the draft.
  14. I'm just trying to analyze the money situation. First pick slot is 6.7ish mill. I'll be disappointed as hell if Bryant requires all of that(or more). We have 10.5 millish total, plus a tad over 500k in overslot available. Which I certainly think we'll use all of. My true guess is Bryant will get between 5.5 and 6 mill. If he gets more than Buxton got last year(6), we're overpaying. The slot value of 41 was around 1.35 or so, I think. Honestly, I doubt Zastryzny gets all of that. My guess is he gets around a mill. We "should" have some serious over slot money to play with tomorrow(or Saturday). Especially if they take a few college seniors late tomorrow. Hopefully 3 or 4 of them, as we've got plenty of depth for the most part. The board sets up nicely for us honestly, even according to needs. At Catcher, Jonathan Denney is worth a serious over slot. Chris Okey is as well. Plenty of other Catchers are worth 3/4 round picks as well. Not that I think we'd take another 3B early, but Trey Michalczewski is a hell of a bat and I wouldn't complain at all. In the OF, Ivan Wilson and Ryan Boldt are worth spending solid money on. Boldt, like Denney, could require very large money. Maybe 2 mill or so. Which I would rather spend on a pitcher, if we spend very big on one overslot. As far as LHP goes, Jake Brentz and Garrett Williams stand out. Williams is a Vandy commit though, so I imagine he'd require a giant over slot. For RHP, college guys like Bobby Wahl and Trey Masek are solid values. Masek may be banged up though. As Toonster mentioned, Tyler Skulina would be a solid 3rd round value too. Andrew Mitchell as well, who could move quick, if they put him in the pen. And then, there IS Karsten Whitson, who I agree with Raisin, is likely an 11th round pick. Jeff Thompson seems like a 4-6 round guy, but we've been connected to him, so maybe he goes to us early? High School RHP is definitely available. Jones and Serrano stand far above anyone else, which tells me they won't go until the 11th, due to signability. I guess there's a chance we could use ALL of our over slot and nab ONE of them, with 2.5 or 3 mill, but I'm not sure thats the best use of money and I'd figure the FO thinks the same way. Jordan Sheffield(TJS) is an interesting case. He likely was a mid 1st rounder before he got hurt. Other High School guys on my radar are Carlos Salazar, Dustin Driver, and Brett Morales, Nick Eichholtz is a guy we've been connected to, so it wouldn't surprise me to see us pop him in the 3rd obviously. But, as I look at other teams drafts, I'm not seeing very many teams with flexibility left. Houston took a college guy in the 2nd, so my guess is both us and them will have some extra money to spend. But the teams with multiple early picks have appeared to already spend big. We may just be battling with Houston for a couple of the bigger names left. Which is cool, as we've both got Boras standing in our way, in figuring how much over slot either team has. At least we're not at a disadvantage there. Plus, my honest guess is we may have saved a bit on Zastryzny, while Thurman could easily cost Houston full slot value. I'll predict we go with an over slot type in the 3rd and another in the 11th, as the 2 big names we try to add. Because if the figures I'm thinking are remotely correct, we'll have saved close to a mill from slot on our first 2 picks, plus the 5% money, plus maybe another 400k in seniors in rounds 8-10. It'd give us 2 mill total over slot to spend at this point. Lots of ways to spend it, but I'm increasingly confident tomorrow will be a very fun day for us.
  15. Good lord, I hope not. Byron Buxton only got 6 mill last year as the second pick. If Bryant isn't underslotted somewhat, we overpaid him.
  16. I'm not a fan for more than one reason. I thought he was a late 2nd/early 3rd round talent. But mainly because this likely signifies that we aren't getting a discount on Bryant. I thought for sure this would be an over slotted High School pitcher.
  17. Connor Jones or Hunter Green are my two favorite pitchers left.
  18. Damn, Denney or Wilson would be excellent picks this late.....
  19. Surprised Marlins took a tough sign type, in Krook.
  20. The Royals are going to have to take Manaea or Austin Wilson at 34, right?
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