davell

https://670thescore.radio.com/bulls-michael-porter-jr-best-player-draft-class-back-injury This article is getting my hopes up on MPJ too much.

Lange goes 5 2 1 1 1 2, 8/4 ratio.....

Duquette said today or yesterday, that they'd wait until after Memorial Day to decide what to do. And he pondered the question of "Do you trade a guy who may be having a Triple Crown Year?" in today's day and age, I don't know how ANYONE can support the Orioles.

That's three guys over a four year span, one ranked, during which they spent maybe five times that dollar total on IFA prospect bats. Since we can include Concepcion's full contract then those guys are a third of the way to Soler alone. Concepcion's deal basically came out to a million and change per year, right in line with those other handful million dollar pitchers, and not a path to getting impact talent anytime soon when combined with those guys being mostly unranked amateurs. It's not alot of money relative to what the Cubs spent on offense or in the grand scheme of things, and likely largely explains why the farm didn't give the ML club both a cheap super lineup and pitching staff. Again, you're basically asking them to spend money that they almost have no reason to spend. They've devoted enough to pitching each class they've been able to spend on. 2012- If was Paniagua. He was older, but considered a great signing, at the time. Supposedly very advanced. I think that's when they signed Concepcion too. 2013- Tseng, Moreno, and Mejia were 3 of the top 10 pitching bonuses given out. Tseng was considered a top 5 guy overall that class until he regressed his senior season, which was after the Cubs had already verbally committed to him. Moreno was a top 5 Pitcher in his class. Mejia was a late bloomer that signed a year late and had gained lots of buzz. 2015- Extremely weak class. Marquez was the top lefty, Cubs got him. Albertos wasn't ranked, yet was given as high or higher a bonus than anyone in the class. He wasn't ranked because no one had been scouting in Mexico, from the publications. Badler said he would have had him as the top pitching prospect from the class, if he had seen him. Again, they've spent. There's only a finite amount of top 30 pitchers each year. Usually under 10. The Cubs typically get at least 1, usually more than that, of them. They've obviously not had success yet. But, they've put absolutely enough resources into it. And yes, I'm hoping they get Rodriguez more than hoping for Mesa. EDIT- After seeing the 3 in 4 years comment..... I guess I need to remind you that in 2014, 2016, and 2017, the Cubs were in the penalty box and were capped at 300K those years. During which, in 2017..... They STILL got a top 5 or 6 pitching prospect from the class, in Serrano. With a 1.2 mill bonus due to the Mexico loophole.

Occaisonally spending a million on unranked or mid-ranked guys is definitely not the level of commitment required to get some impact talent. Gallardo's easily the highest ranked IFA pitcher they've been tied to in 6 years. Uh, I responded to what you SAID. YOU SAID they hadn't spent big on pitching. Concepcion was 6 mill. Albertos got 1.5 which was definitely a top 3-5 bonus that year for pitching. Tseng got 1.5 or so, which was a top bonus for his year too. I'm not arguing talent. But they HAVE spent, when you said they havent. And actually, you're not grasping the idea that there just isn't much high dollar talent in an IFA class to begin with. The Cubs have spent very highly, compared to other teams, in terms of pitching. Especially if you take Alvarez and Morejon out of the equation, one of which wasn't signable by us, for when he got cleared, and the other because he literally cost 30 mill after penalties and wasn't worth it. The object is to load up in numbers. Putting all your eggs in one 16 year old basket is stupid. No teams do that. Hence, why pitching costs less at that age.

Jesus lol. Ran out of gas, I guess.

Brandon Little is at 5 3 0 0 0 3, with a 9/3 GB/FB ratio right now..... Even if I just jinxed him, he's definitely making progress at this stage. Tons of it, actually.

There's lots of teams out there that are needing to move money to create room for FA. There are even plenty of teams with guys in their last years, that need moving. Granted, you're probably getting 2nds in those deals, but still...... And yeah, they horsefeathering sold a pick for 3.5M this past year, then said it was "currency" for the future. Cash that in and buy one this year. But yeah, you've got to add assets. And our ways to do it are thru trading off Holiday, Lopez, and anyone else not named Lauri, Dunn, LaVine, Portis, and Valentine. Those are the 5 guys Paxson mentioned as safe, even if I'd trade the last 2 of them, since they'll start getting expensive soon. We've got cap.space to take on money and it needs to be used for that and not some half ass FA. Or on a young RFA that can be here a long time.

Gotta remember the Cuban gem we unearthed named Concepcion. Gerardo, maybe? Anyway, he got like 6 mill from us, but at least it was over 5 years. Albertos was around 1.5 too. As a general rule, pitchers just don't cost as much in IFA. Especially now that Cubans are capped too. It seems like there's only 6-8 pitchers on the top 30 lists in IFA's each year. I know we got Tseng, Moreno, and Mejia the first time and it was a great showing for pitching. In 2015, Albertos wasn't known, so he didn't get ranked, but Marquez was. And it sounds like we've got Gallardo and Machado this year. May not have developed them, but we've taken our shots for sure on some high end pitching, via IFA.

I didn't list Naylor because I thought he had moved into the mid 1st. I'd like that a lot. I'm not sure about Casas. I can't see him as anything other than a 1B and I don't know if I'd want to take one that early or not.

So at our pick (#24) I just don't think there will be a college bat that's better than the other prospects available at that point. India is too high now, and I don't like Eierman or Hoerner that much. Larnach will probably be selected before their pick too. I think the clear strength of this draft is pitching so you have to take advantage of that. I want them to target a good high school bat as well, but get away from taking the great athlete/raw baseball skills type player. Well yeah, I'm not taking a guy just to mark off my list. That IS my preference, no matter where we pick in ANY draft. In this one, I hate saying pitching looks to be where the strength is, where we're at, but it likely is..... But, if any of Scott, Turang, or Larnach are available at 24, I'm taking them. And I'm not opposed to taking Walker, Hannah, or Groshans either. Although I'd want a discount on Walker or Hanna, to throw at a pitcher next round.

In order, for our 1st pick, I'd prefer..... 1. College Bat 2. High School Bat 3. College Pitcher 4. High School Pitcher After that, I'd prefer the opposite, in the 2nd and comp picks. In fact, it'd be great, if we had one of each, after our 1st, 2nd, and 2 comp picks.

I like the wheel idea. It’s not perfect but I think it’s the best way to eliminate tanking. Although it would suck to wait 30 years for the #1 pick and then end up having it in a poor draft year. How about the wheel but instead of each pick once every 30 years, you put 5 groups of 6 teams together. Group 1 has a random draw for picks 1-6. Group 2 has a random draw for picks 7-12, etc etc. it at least puts some luck back into it and every 5 years you have a chance at the number 1 pick. That could work too. I just like the idea of getting rid of protected picks. If you trade for a pick 4 years out, your know exactly what you were getting.

Just to have teams set for playoff match ups. I don't know. Was thinking it conceivably could help stop the super teams, in fear of multiple super teams being put in the same division randomly. Edit- Without thinking too much on this, maybe something like 2 teams leave each division every two years. And stagger that, to where only 4 teams a year switch. Maybe you're not allowed to move twice in a row either, to give a bit of continuity? Probably grasping at straws, the draft is more important to me than eliminating super teams.

Salaries or teams being over the cap doesn't bother me at all, with the NBA. In a perfect world, you don't have guys making super teams, but that's just how it is at this point. It sucks you go into a season knowing there's only 2-3 teams that have a shot at winning it all. But, I think that's just how it's going to be unfortunately. My changes would be to switch to an even schedule, no more Eastern and Western Conferences. 4 Divisions, which teams rotate in and out of. A drawing for playoff matchups and which divisions play which each year first, takes the place of the draft lotto. Because I'd go to a 30 year Wheel, in which every team gets to know EXACTLY where they pick in each draft for that entire period of time.

There's not many teams with cap room this offseason. Here's what you've got..... Lakers-61.8M Bulls-41.5M Philly-30.5M Hawks-29.2M Kings-24.6M Mavs-23.8M Rockets-22M Nets-16.7M Magic-15M Suns-13.2M Jazz-11.7M Pacers-8.1M Pelicans-700,000 Spurs-700,000 Everyone else is over the cap. Some by a lot. LaVine comes out of our space, so we aren't in as good of shape as it initially looks. The Bulls aren't getting any of the elite guys this offseason. The "plan" evidently is to show improvement this season and go big into the following FA class. Right now, that class includes Kyrie, Kemba, Klay, and Jimmy. Lesser guys too, but those are the big ones. And Jimmy is the only one we'd have a shot at. I guess you could gamble on Cousins right now. If we gave him a max, I'm sure he'd come. Personally, I'd look into some of the RFA's this offsesson. See if you could get Aaron Gordon or Clint Capela. Look into Randle, Nurkic, Jabari, and Smart. Even Hood. See if you can steal one of them. Parker and Hood are likely changing teams and should be cheap. I figure Smart leaves Boston too. The rest aren't easy to get, but you might as well look into it. In the mean time, you've got to take on some bad money for more picks. They've talked about keeping room for a bit FA next year..... horsefeathers that. Jimmy doesn't put you over the top lol. Hell, he's not really a great fit in this offense anyway. Take on bad money and add some more 1sts. You can do that with ease, just by taking on 2 years of a bad deal. Plenty of teams are going to be trying to free up space this offseason, you've got to take advantage of that. We're a lottery team again next season, with the reform, maybe we get luckier..... But, the current group, plus 7 and 22, plus a top 10 pick next year and the hope of Jimmy, Kyrie, Klay, or Kawhi? That seems to be the plan. I think the big FA thing isn't happening and I think they need as many lotto ticket picks as possible, hoping to get lucky, no matter where they fall.

Even if you don’t buy into Rocker, considering how long he’s been on radars this is extremely reactionary. I doubt good FOs think like this and the start didn’t change much of anything. He’s been rumored all over the place all spring (including that mock) because in general there’s a huge emphasis on signability though specifically every year there’s orgs that zag. I still think he takes $3-4 million fromthe right/lucky org in the back half of the first. If it's 15th pick money, it's around 3.7 mill. So, somewhere in the 3.5-4 mill area seems to be his price tag. Teams inside the top 10 may not think he's the BPA in that range. They may be trying to find an underslot, that saves them more too possibly. Teams in the 11-15 range could see things the same way, I guess. Personally, that's where he probably SHOULD go, in my mind. But, there's depth here, and teams could easily be swayed against him at that spot. One start shouldn't have an effect. Wouldn't for me. But, if you've got a few guys you feel basically the same about, then I see that as a usable separator, even if it wouldn't be mine. However, you drop past 15 and he becomes a guy you're having to overslot. Most teams(us included) haven't taken guys in the 1st, that you over slot on. Not sure why, but maybe teams prefer keeping "above water" on their monetary outlay for the first few rounds. Don't want to go under slot for a few rounds afterwards. Anyway, I don't see us taking a guy that's a mill over the slot value, in the first. I have a scenario of how we COULD and it appeals to me actually. But, I just don't see the TO breaking from the norm for them. Which means slot, plus college guys mainly in the 1st 2 Rounds anyway. I think KC, with 2 comp picks at 33 and 34, and the drafts overall highest budget, is where Rucker and one more high dollar HS arm, maybe Hankins, both wind up.

Question about Kumar Rocker. Seems like a month ago he was projected to go in the top ten. In your latest mock, you have him going in the supplemental rounds. Did something happen with him that I missed to drop his stock? Kiley McDaniel 1:10 I mean we literally spelled it out in the mock. He had a bad last start, he wants a lot of money, so once he slides past 15 or so, it's either overpay in the 30's (for top 15 money) or go to school. And there's finality on what Rocker's situation is.

It WAS available at first. Now it's not. I can currently access some articles they're posting(saw the Glaser article today) and others I can't. Last week they were asking me to sign in on EVERYTHING. So, I was nothing. It seems like it there's a limitation on articles you can read per month or something, it's pretty random. I have no idea what to think when I click on something there, at this stage.

Bulls pick 7th. If they had lost the coin flip with the Kings, they'd be picking 2nd. Hopefully one of Bamba or Porter makes it to 7. But, I'd be OK with Carter. Do think there's a really good chance Young or Sexton go 6 to Orlando. Which knocks someone down to 7.

How the money gets allotted is key obviously. I've tried playing around with that some every year. Because it's easier to do THAT than project players. We won't know most bonus demands and there's always some top 30-50 guys sitting there on Day 2. There's usually even a few seven figure bonuses given out in the 6-10 rounds and there's always some decent bonuses handed out after the 10th round too. Our Draft Budget- 7.517,100 5% Money- 375,855 Total Budget-7.892,955 1st Round- 2.724M Personally, I'd go with the HS player here, that's taking slot. But, I understand the strategy of taking the college guy first. Slot value being the EXPECTED monetary outlay. However, I can see a scenario where we take a guy expected to go a bit later, maybe top 50,and get him for 2 mill or slightly under that. Same scenario we did with Schwarber, just in a different pick radius. An unlikely option would be to go over slot on a HS kid in round 1. A 4th Option is to just take slot thru out and use your 5% money, and your 8-10 Round money, to go over slot for a kid in the middle rounds. We've done this multiple times and it may be safest. But, I want to explore the other chances...... 1st Option- 2.724M(can be either HS or college kid) 2nd Option- 2M on a college kid, with upside. Hannah? 3rd Option- 3.5M on a HS kid 2nd Round- 1.060,900 Solid money for sure. This could go towards either HS or College, BUT it's gone College every year outside of 2012 for us. Personally, I'd suspect yet another college pitcher that pitched well at the end of the year, ala Rob Z, Abbott, and Stinnett. Chance of a college position player too here, almost definitely an up the middle guy. 1st Option-1.060,900 2nd Option- 2Mill(This goes to a HS kid you like a lot and spread your top 2 pick money evenly between 2 guys. 3rd Option- 1,060,900 Comp Picks after 2nd Round- 775,100 and 762,900 I think this is likely where we go with a big overslot. The 1st Option, where we've went slot in both rounds 1 and 2, lends for this scenario. Option 2 does as well, you've just taken a different path. Option 3? It's be really hard. But, we'll give it a go and see how funky we can turn that option..... 1st Option- 1.5M and 762,900 2nd Option- 2M and 762,900 3rd Option- 1.5M and 1.5M Total money spent so far..... 5.322,900 Slot 1st Option-6.047,800 2nd Option-6.762,900 3rd Option-7.560,900 3rd Round-570,600 I find it unlikely this is when we go big, I'd suspect a college arm here. In all 3 scenarios, we've got to do this anyway. In the 3rd one, we've got to lay off actually. 1st Option-572,900(6.620,800) 2nd Option-572,900(7.335,800) 3rd Option-200,000(7.760,900) 4th Round-426,100 Money has been spent in each of these 3 options. While in the "go slot everywhere" option, NOW is when you could conceivably grab your low 7 figure HS kid, that's still out there. Itd just cost your 5% money and your 9th and 10th Rounders need to be College senior signs. 1st Option-426,100(7,046,900 Total) 2nd Option-30,000(college senior) 7,365,800 Total 3rd Option-20,000(college senior)7,780,900 Total 5th Round-317,600 There's really no money to spend. You can take slot a few more times with the 1st Option. 2nd Option needs to skimp one more time right now. The 3rd Option is signing college seniors throughout. 1st Option-317,600(7,364,500 Total) 2nd Option-30,000(7,395,800) 3rd Option-20,000(7,800,900) 6th Round-245,600 Slot or seniors. Only choice. 1st Option-245,600(7,610,100 Total) 2nd Option-245,600(7,641,400 Total) 3rd Option-20,000(7,820,900 Total) 7th-10th Rounds-634,300 combined 1st Option-282,855 to spend 2nd Option-251,555 to spend 3rd Option-72,445 to spend It's VERY likely, that we'll play it safe and just take slot guys at each stop, then use the 5% money and a couple of senior signs between 7-10 and get one guy to excite us. But, I would look at each of these other 3 scenarios hard, if I were the Cubs. Strength in a small few, but extra upside. Not to mention, we've done a fairly admirable job with college seniors. Option 1- 2.724M, 1.060,900, 1.5M, 762,900, 572,900, 426,100 as your 6 relatively decent sized bonuses Option 2- 2M, 2M, 2M, 762,900, 572,900 as your 5 big bonuses Option 3- 3.5M, 1.060,900, 1.5M, 1.5M as your 4 big bonuses Anyway, it's a puzzle. It all depends on bonus demands. But, I like each of those scenarios more than the playing it safe route. It's too hard to find a diamond in the rough, with slot guys outside the 1st. Just take a few high upside guys and take it easy in the back half of the first 10 Rounds.

The link: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/ It’s a good read. I had it posted with a bad link, then forgot to put it back in, then I guess you posted it while I was redoing it lol. I'm not sure what I feel about Kowar. I like Walker. I also like quite a few of the HS Pitchers taken after us. But, it sounds like college is going to be our direction in the 1st. With the 2 comp picks, I really will be disappointed if we don't do one really huge, fun thing with a HS arm, or 2 Estrada type moves. We've got the overall budget to be very interesting.

Kiley and Longenhagen with a 43 pick mock. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/ Gives us Kowar in the 1st, has us connected with Steele Walker at the pick too. Gage Canning, a CF, is connected to us as well, for later.

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It is not possible to love Javy more than I do.