Northsider

Not quite what I'm seeing with the swing. What I see (admittedly, I haven't seen much) is that he's still getting the bat around late (which is why he's always hit to opposite field), but the bat is angled downwards and the result is that he's hitting the top of the ball and knocking it into the ground. (lines are the bat, o's are the ball) In other words, the plane of his swing is, from a pitcher's perspective: / And his bat is hitting the ball at this point, side perspective: /o So I'd argue he needs to: EITHER swing earlier and try to get around on the ball Same pitcher's perspective as above Side-view: |o or \o I speculate that swinging earlier would result in less selectivity at the plate and result in a decreased OBP, though. OR straighten out the swing so that the plane of the bat is parallel to the ground Pitcher's perspective: -- Side-view: -o- I believe this is the better of the two options and should essentially make Murton the opposite-field line-drive hitter he userd to be. Admittedly, I'm not by any means an expert in this field, an in fact I'm largely working my tennis experience (placement of the ball by choosing where to hit the ball itself) and original research by this guy: http://www.batspeed.com/ into my analysis. Please criticize so I can learn more about this.

I'd like to point out that I think Cuse has a good general idea, but I don't think that LD% is the right stat or set thereof to look at. LD% has the unfortunate problem of being a result of both the hitting and the pitching - I'd argue that while the stats, then, would balance out over time for that pitcher, the data would perhaps be less likely to be accurate. The other thing that worries me about using LD% would be that a pitcher often gets lifted if they're getting lit up; how much is an ample amount of time for a pitcher to recover from a rally? A pitcher isn't often told to pitch until they hit their pitch count after giving up a largish number of runs in a single inning, while they probably will finish their part of the game if it's over the course of several innings. Especially if the other pitcher is doing about equally. We have access to more pitcher's stats than we used to. We have pitch speed, we have pitch 'break', we can find out where the ball hit (or missed) the strike zone. We can probably get a breakdown of what pitches were being thrown. For the most part, this is all under the control of the pitcher (I say 'for the most part' because one might debate how much a catcher controls where the pitch is supposed to be thrown, and how much they try to neutralize bad pitches or even if they do). So, perhaps it might be better to look at that data and try and figure out if a pitcher has a 'mental weakness point', be it first in the game, runs in an inning, run differential, &c. where those factors change significantly. You might even look for physical weakness, where a pitcher gets tired - it seems to me, from watching games, that late in the game Zambrano will actually start to throw a little harder, and his pitches will flatten out some, and he gets hit more; however, that's only what I've seen. I'd like to see the statistics on that, and see if he actually does tend to do this after roughly so many pitches, personally. Sorry if this post was a bit rambling, and it probably needs to be split and sent to baseball discussions if anyone wants to follow up on this?

I think I see what Cuse is trying to do - Cuse, perhaps you made the unstated assumption that you'd like to compare the LD% after 4 runs to the LD% before that point in the game?

Just thinking out loud, but it looks to me like this deal was an attempt by the Astros to respond to the Cubs signing Fukudome, and that's why they overpayed so much for Miggy. The other thought I had - doesn't this kick off the Orioles firesale that promises Roberts to the Cubs?

Where do I push the done deal button? It's Hendry's belly button. Just have to hunt him down. Just be forewarned - he giggles like the Pillsbury Doughboy when you do . . . it's kinda creepy, really.

NL East: Marlins NL Central: Cubs NL West: Padres NL Wild Card: Phillies AL East: Red Sox AL Central: Tigers AL West: Angels AL Wild Card: Yankees Marlins beat Padres Cubs beat Phillies Red Sox beat Angels Tigers beat Yankees Cubs beat Marlins Red Sox beat Tigers Cubs beat Red Sox

At twice Murton's total yearly salary.

What struck me about this was not that the Astros are so desperate for their rotation, but rather that Purpura doesn't seem to understand that the terms "Hot and heavy" and "flirting" are mutually exclusive. Or, at least, I've always heard of the latter occuring first, and in no case simultaneously . . .

Tiger cannot be beaten when he's on his game; Federer does have an opponent who can beat him in Marat Safin(provided he's not on the DL, he's had more injury time than Wood or Prior so far). Point goes to Tiger.

Just heard it on WGN. One year deal, I didn't hear the money.

There is no trading of draft picks. By the rules? Or are you saying that trading a draft pick would be a Bad Thing?

If Prior and Miller are both healthy, Hill should stick in the rotation, Rusch should be DFA'd, and Prior should be long man so that he can rebuild a damaged arm, so we don't have to make him a setup man for Wood in a couple of years. Far better that he spends a short amount of time in the pen now then we have to convert him permanently into a pen arm later, because starters are more valuable than pen arms. Also, if we're trying to get Hawpe, maybe Marshall/Jones/1st-round-pick gets it done, and we don't have to give up on someone with as little injury history, as much potential, and who is as close to the majors as Hill is.

Marmol > Guzman > Marshall Marmol has the stuff, and has been a pitcher for a short enough time that he still has a very good chance of finding his control. Also, his short stint as a pitcher probably means that very little damage has as yet been done to his arm, so I expect him to stay healthier longer. Also, having been a catcher, he probably has a decent understanding of the mental side of pitching, so he won't have to catch up as much there. I personally think he has a very high ceiling, the type that could generate a consistent 130 ERA+. Guzman and Marshall both have had some injury problems, and while Guzman's control isn't showing up, I think that's just a matter of time if he stays healthy, which (I think) he was last year. Marshall was injured as recently as last year. He has some potential, but I don't think he has an ace's ceiling, while Guzman still does despite many injuries. Also, why isn't Mateo included?

I just tuned into to WGN, caught the tail end of a Rothschild conversation/interview . . . apparently Maddux gave Rothschild kudos as being the best PC that he's played under, this last year before the trade - and someone mentioned inquiring about Rothschild's abilities at one of the GM meetings, and everyone said that he's tops. I'm more inclined to believe Maddux, given that he's played under the hailed great Leo Mazzone as well. Just thought I'd share . . .

Isn't Weaver supposed to be a more talented, less productive pitcher, similar to Meche? If that's so, what are the chances we can get him on a 10 mil/yr, 3yr contract and get him to Clement for us? Or is he just a lazy bum who won't put it together? Also, I'm liking Suppan or Penny here. Or Pie/Gallagher for Willis.

Why would the Expos bring him back? I mean the Nationals . . .

Watching sombody write Meche into the #2 spot in the rotation made me vomit in my mouth a little bit. Meche is a decent #5 or a bad #4. He's not a #2 and never will be. Why do you say that? Because he's not that good? That really doesn't answer my question. Well, I have a hard time seeing that a guy who has been below average for 4 years all of a sudden becomes a very good pitcher. Call me crazy. Clement. (alright, yeah, he was only three full years, but the two are roughly the same age and Meche is supposed to be more talented)

Out of curiosity, what would everyone do right now if they were GM? I doubt the Cubs could win in 2007 without spending the farm, but I think our four big prospects could be playing by 2008, given their current learning rates. I personally won't mention anyone I don't think can help us by 2008. I'd: Convince the Bear's trainers to make a Spring Training visit, and get recommendations for a permanent training staff. Sign 2 of Schmidt/Lilly/Meche/Weaver to 4-year deals, no or limited NTC. Sign Phil Nevin if at all possible. Also try for Hollandsworth and Wilson. Trade Dempster for hitting prospects. Trade either Ohman or Eyre for something. Put Prior in the BP, for at least a year. I want to pre-empt having him need to go there like Wood. Can't enter rotation until 2008, and then only if healthy all 2007. If healthy, we have 6 SPs, with one to trade Wood himself stays the whole year, and at least til ASB 2008 if resigned. If resigned, he gets the 2008 long man role to start, can end up in rotation if he's been healthy for a year and a half, in which case we have the six SPs problem again, with another one to trade. Trade Jones for mlb-proven pitching. We'll say Jennings. Pagan gets the stopgap CF position - he's somewhat talented, but needs discipline. Perry should help that. Trade Rusch for his own rookie baseball card. Miller to bullpen, at least for half a year, as long man. If we get two FA pitchers and one in the JJ trade, then we should have 6 healthy SP to choose from by ASB 2007. We can trade one then, move Prior to long man. If not, then we just use rookies again to fill the remaining 1-2 slots. With Prior ready, same problem. Extend Miller if he makes the rotation. Rapada comes up. Marmol at AAA as a starter. Have him work on location, that's his big problem. Could be ready anytime, but probably no room for him til 2008. Pie at AAA. Works on Pitch Recognition, Strike Zone Recognition. Should be ready to start by 2008. If not ready, sign a CF and trade Pie. EPatt at AAA. Continue work on Pitch Recognition and Strike Zone Recognition, extra defensive drills for 2B daily. Should be ready to start by Opening Day 2008. Cedeno to AAA. Work, work, work on plate patience. Has the potential, but won't reach it unless he stops following Dusty's advice. Needs to improve the D badly, too, so he gets drilled with EPatt. Hopefully he's ready by 2008. Stops by the majors only when Izzy is Injured. Veal at AA. Essentially more because he only has half a year there. If he's dominating after two months, move him up. Probably up by ASB 2008, maybe earlier. Gallagher at AA. Hasn't mastered the level, but could still move up around the ASB. Probably up by/after ASB 2008. Entrance to majors creates a trade situation, similar to Prior and Miller's entrance to the majors. This should give us a full OF (Murton, Pie, Soriano), a solid IF(Ramirez, Izturis/Cedeno, EPatt, Lee, Barrett). At the Start of 2008, our Starting Rotation should have a choice of: Zambrano, Hill, Schmidt, Meche, Lilly, Weaver, Jennings, healthy Miller, healthy Prior. By ASB 2008, we should be able to add Veal and Gallagher to the SP mix; that's worth a pair of trades for prospects again. Our bullpen should have, at the beginning of 2008: Wood, Howry, Wuertz, Rapada, Cotts, Ohman, Eyre/Ohman. We have room for one more in the BP if we go with 12 pitchers. Options for Bench of 2008: Nevin, Hollandsworth, Wilson, Theriot, Pagan, Blanco, Moore, DeRosa, Izturis We probably won't have a shot in 2007 with this plan, although a solid DeRosa or Pagan performance or both, with the rotation we'll have, might put us at .500 provided Lee remembers how to be his 2005 self sometime in 2007. By 2008, however, we could very well have an all-aces rotation, like we were supposed to in 2004, and some very solid hitting to go along with it. The Rot. could have all 20-game winners, with maybe a couple of half-season 10-game winners, and a starting lineup with 195 homers or so. Best case: Soriano EPatt Ramirez Lee Pie Murton Barrett Cedeno Zambrano Hill Prior Wood Veal Sorry if I was a bit short with my treatment of the organization/plan, but I wanted to get this done sometime today.

Err, trying to get in Hendry's head and most definitely not suggesting anything, . . . Pie to Florida/Colorado/Angels for pitching Jacque to somewhere for pitching Epatt -> Cubs CF for 2007 Sign Lilly/Meche? I don't like that plan at all.

Marmol has some wicked breaking stuff, but his control right now is questionable, mostly due to the fact that he's only been a pitcher for a couple of years now. Hendry, I would bet, is more willing to take the risk of letting him fail as a prospect because he can't find his release point within the next two or three years (which, given that he's an athlete, I personally find unlikely) than to take the risk that he becomes a Willis for someone else later on. This same attitude probably applies to Pie, EPatt, Veal, and Gallagher, as well as having applied to both Murton and Hill in the recent past. He'd probably have to be blown away (a couple of above average SPs, a major bat and some) before letting any of these guys loose. Note: There may be more untouchables like the named above, I just don't know who they would be.

I haven't heard much about Meche other than he's an very very talented underachiever. Why is he not living up to his talent? Is it laziness? Is he not choosing good pitch sequences? Does his breaking stuff sometimes fail him, leading to hits? The only reason I ask is because if his errors are something correctable, ala Clement, it might not be quite so bad to sign him as is normally thought, although probably a risky signing nonetheless.

Ok, agreed, Orton's numbers did not look good last year. However, - Moose and Gage constantly dropped the ball. - His throws were, at least 95% of the time, directly in a line to his receiver, and were only missing overhead by a small margin. The coaches had specifically told him to overshoot rather than undershoot. This represents the fact that, as a rookie, he had not gotten the timing of the game down yet. - Orton has an excuse for not having his timing quite down - beyond the normal hardship of young quarterbacks having to speed their games up, Orton further lost time in the pocket by having to move up from shotgun. - VERY limited playbook. When your receivers have only two routes to run, it is very, very difficult for them to get open. Add in the fact that Gage is a terrible player, and you have 0 open receivers. The fact that Orton had a pass completion percentage as high as he did with Gage allowing the triple-coverage of Moose (and even occasionally handing the ball off to defenders), and I would say that Grossman did fairly well. Anyone else remember the first Carolina game, and the difference between having Bradley (who had a sore knee at the time, mind!) and Gage in? Orton's completion percentage skyrocketed, against a good defence, during the first half. Bradley not only was open himself, but forced the D to be honest against Moose - which, in turn, allowed Moose to get receptions. Compare this to the first Grossman game that year: Berrian is put in and the playbook is opened for the 'Golden Child'. Grossman managed a whopping 59.7 passer rating over two games. He had an interception in each game. The ball was taken out of Orton's hands, essentially, that season. His only job was to throw it to whoever he was told to throw it to. His receivers were not given the benefit of deception - it is not hard to defend against two routes - his receivers dropped the ball. His timing was affected slightly more than most rookies. And he still did better than the heralded Grossman did in the two games Grossman played that year. Three, if you count Grossman's game against the Panthers. He put up 200 some yards against the Steelers in a snow that, according to all accounts, killed visibility, and managed to throw straight, accurate passes in the 40 mph wind of the 49ers game. Once Orton has the timing of the game down, I have no doubt he will be a very good QB. He should also, in years to come, have a more reliable set of targets than he did in 2005. Grossman, on the other hand, is given every available opportunity and has two games at least, against some very bad defences, that were worse than anything Orton did last year, despite having a larger playbook, better receiving corps, and being in the same situation, in terms of the timing of the game, as Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. This is why I have hope for Orton, despite what the numbers say.

Rookies are expected to make mistakes. Especially when transferring from a college shotgun offense to an NFL system which believes the shotgun is as much of a stain on society as a drunk nude at a Victorian funeral. 4th years, injured or no, are not supposed to be making those mistakes - especially when they've had more time to practice in a system and it is not 'new' to them that year. Now one might consider that the error of the coaches, as it was in the case of a certain Harrington who is now winning games in Miami. Although given what Lovie has done so far, I very sincerely doubt that is the case here. I said it last year and will continue to say that Orton has a better shot at succeeding in the NFL than Rex *cough*McNown*cough* Grossman until proved either wrong or right. And right now, evidence seems to be on my side - Grossman has collapsed, while Orton was pretty consistent over the course of the year.

Preface: I have not liked Grossman from the start. I found his accuracy lacking in comparison to QBs such as Jim Miller and Chris Chandler, and do not believe that his gunslinger attitude goes well with the fact that he will often miss by quite a large margin. I was shocked to see him actually making accurate passes at the beginning of this year, or even stay on his feet for more than two quarters. I did not begin to actually believe in him until after the Bills game. Indeed, I have been a fan of Kyle Orton, since I saw him make passes that were accurate, with the exception that they were almost always 6 inches or so too high, and believe firmly that he would have been a far superior quarterback last year if Justin Gage hadn't been allowing the triple-coverage of Moose. All that said, I would like to see Griese and Orton flash their stuff in these next four games; Griese we know nothing about, and his job was to be the starter if Grossman couldn't handle it. He needs the reps. Orton, I personally would like to see in this system, with not-JustinGage at WO, an expanded playbook, and an extra year in the system under his belt. He has more pocket presence and, against better teams, did not give up as many interceptions in his playing time as Grossman already has this year. PS: Apologies, had to get that . . . small rant off my chest.