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sneakypower

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Everything posted by sneakypower

  1. sneakypower
    chasing past trends in an ever-evolving sport, not really the wisest course of action usually
  2. sneakypower
    5 of the top 8 teams in FB% are likely to miss the playoffs, and the Twins are saved from that ignominy by their incredibly poor division; it's really not that big a deal
  3. sneakypower
    flip 5 & 9 and the top 12 is pretty spot-on at least (imo)
  4. sneakypower
    even the Dodgers with their nearly unlimited budget understand the need/value in devoting sufficient playing time to players under team control, with not-top-even-100-kind-of-old James Outman like Joc Pederson before him he's rewarded their faith to be one of their better players this year and likely going forward i very much hope we acquire Soto/Ohtani or resign Bellinger to have precedence over Mervis but i think we all know it's more unlikely than not none of these transpire so it's nice to have a decent fall-back with potential for much more to supplement bigger acquisitions on the roster wherever else
  5. sneakypower
    why is this literally the only stat you look at for hitters
  6. sneakypower
    given the unique upside to his bat in a franchise fairly devoid of middle of the order hitter archetypes, he should remain firmly in the plans until better hitters are brought in to usurp 1B/DH
  7. sneakypower
    was somehow only 1% (to my surprise)
  8. sneakypower
  9. sneakypower
    it was a simple analogy obviously exaggerated for a somewhat funny effect we should know Bellinger is assuredly going to hit way closer to 105 wRC+ the last 2 months than 140 and likewise Steele and his current 2.65 ERA should regress (the reverse is also true for Suzuki, Wesneski, Taillon etc) for whatever it's worth here are the discrepancies between current performance and prorated preseason ZiPS
  10. sneakypower
    ...ok?
  11. sneakypower
    ok yeah, but that's also not a projection like basing on Rays April season to date stats they'd have been 'projected' 130 wins or something goofy, right
  12. sneakypower
    this is still too mystical for my liking- we've finally stopped given tons of playing time to bad players and naturally the outcomes are better it's not luck or variance reversing course that we're doing much better with our best player back in the lineup, or showing Mancini/Hosmer/Mervis, Mastrobuoni, Boxberger the door having a nice run differential in the past doesn't promise a nice RD in the future and ROS projections still have us plainly mediocre so mostly we're just saying "we probably should've won more games than we did given how the team played on whole"
  13. sneakypower
    i agree with the sentiment our record isn't perfectly representative but it would be nice at the very least for run differential stats (to serve their intended purpose) to somehow be able to filter out hr derbys off backup catchers and a manager cruelly letting his pitcher wear a 13-spot
  14. sneakypower
    i don't think i know what mechanism you're suggesting here how would this be a possibility?
  15. sneakypower
    i hate to be that guy but if you're expecting "Nolan Arenado but CF" you might wind up a little bit disappointed
  16. sneakypower
    only real ones know
  17. sneakypower
    Nick Madigral as a Cub is 22% below league average OPS+; he's part of the problem not the solution hitting an empty .280 still makes you a very bad offensive player
  18. sneakypower
    "i'm feeling very good, let me tell you some more about a few good pitchers and like 20 non-prospects"
  19. sneakypower
    i'm a simple man, if i see that your expected wOBA is sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Freedie Freeman, i am going to insist that you keep playing regularly until you prove that's entirely fluky but those much smarter than me insist that where you place your catcher's mitt more than makes up for a .500 OPS, all told
  20. sneakypower
    something kinda funny i noticed
  21. sneakypower
    scouting services love to hand wave away stuff like that, "uh he can probably play RF if needed" as if positional familiarity & first steps are very easy to add a fantastic hitter like Nick Castellanos averages 1.6 WAR/150G for lack of other value to his game; maybe Cards think he's Ryan Braun in time which would make up for his deficiencies, but that's still a super high bar to clear
  22. sneakypower
    this rarity score blows my previous high out of the water, having a Cubs column is child's play i was surprised my Mets .300 pick wasn't way more chalk-y, and quickly realized the list of BAL-CHC is endless and so chock full of ignominy grid:
  23. sneakypower
    huh, so the NL adopting the DH was all just a dream i had
  24. sneakypower
    likely final line
  25. sneakypower
    Brown continues his dominance! with a 1-2-3 top half of the 5th! with a K, and 2 GOs!
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