MeatampPotatoesMan

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford? These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game. I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel. Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol: It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs). I'll post the links again. I know your anecdote makes sense, but heres a study of a season full of anecdotes that proves otherwise. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-1/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/ Taking the top 20 base stealers is biasing your sample b/c there are relatively few basestealers able to "create havoc." Using a small sample size is worthless so he took a shortcut. Basically, his numbers are crap. I like the ideas he uses, particularly in taking the change in D into account. He needs to identify the elite basestealers by hard criteria and look at the data over a long period of time, not just the top 20 (too many) over 3 years (too few). Bad data selection.

Yes. At least wait for him to suck for a few weeks first. He hasn't proven anything, that he sucks included. He still needs some time, but the early results aren't good. I know everyone wants our prospects to succeed, but Ronny looks absolutely overmatched at the plate. I just hope he can play great defense for the time being. So he had a bad Spring training....I think there are many on this board who will tell you ST means nothing... Aside from that...he hit .300 in 40 games last year at age 22 And aside from that, I'm pretty sure he led the fall league (or winterball I can't remember) in hitting last year. Not to mention that he did get a hit and score a run yesterday. Now I don't think anyone is saying he's the next coming of A-Rod, but I just can't see how someone would come up with him being "crap" and that the "early results aren't good"....From what I can tell the early results are GREAT, but we've got a ways to go before they mean he's going to be a great SS. Please tell me where I'm wrong on thinking this way. He had one good year offensively...out of the 6 he spent in our system. So no, it's not too early to label him as "crap." He had a hot year, nothing more. His defense tanked in the process (how many errors did he have in VWL?), so it's not like he just completely turned his game around. Ronny shouldn't have been rushed to the big leagues. He does not deserve a starting job in Chicago based on one good year. If we had gotten Furcal like Plan A dictated, Ronny would have split time with Hairston and Neifi, assuming that Walker would get traded. That would limit the offensive damage he's going to cause to this team...especially when Neifi freaking Perez starts to look good in comparison.

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford? These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game. I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel. Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol: It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs). The big problem with Pods is sticking him in LF (same with Crawford). Huge waste of power potential. Reyes is ok b/c you don't expect much out of SS. Speed isn't the end all, but some teams do overvalue it. The market, in general, does not. The market for any player, in general, is the highest bidder. If there are several teams that overvalue speed and will overpay for it, then the market, in general, overvalues speed. Back to Econ 101 you go. :lol: A market with limited buyers and sellers means that the overbidding of one party can be out of line with the market as a whole.

It's premature to call Ronny "crap?" Please, show me the studliness of Ronny Cedeno. One good year of offense doesn't mean much. I can show you hundreds of minor leaguers with better qualifications for success than that who never panned out in the big leagues.

One thing that makes my eyes roll is the "luck" thing. With all due respect I think the Cardinals have superior major league talent evaluators and coaching staff. Superior major league talent evaluators? Your farm system disproves that notion. Superior coaching staff? We have Baker. he sucks. you win.

Agreed. Anyone have any ideas as to why they waited until now? b/c we have a winning record.

What, pray tell, does Pierre bring other than speed, durability and intangilbles? How about Podsednik? Reyes? Carl Crawford? These guys are not highly valued because of their OBP or even their defense in most cases. They are all overhyped, overpaid (except Reyes) and overrated because of their speed, pure and simple. It is the single most overrated factor in the game. I'll agree that defense is more important than many feel. Speed is overvalued in some cases, but not in general. It's not like guys who can pitch left handed. :lol: It's not speed that makes those guys overvalued. It's the "leadoff hitter" tag or potential. Old schoolers love that. Disrupt the hitter. A good example of that was Harang vs. Murton in the 1st inning yesterday. Harange threw over to 1st several times to make sure Jones wouldn't take 2nd (1st and 3rd at the time). Murton saw quite a few fastballs. Take concentration off the hitter on onto the baserunners and it's more likely the pitcher will miss his spot. Murton takes Harang deep for 3 runs. Big time knock, especially after that Barrett line out DP almost sunk a big inning (bases juiced, no outs). The big problem with Pods is sticking him in LF (same with Crawford). Huge waste of power potential. Reyes is ok b/c you don't expect much out of SS. Speed isn't the end all, but some teams do overvalue it. The market, in general, does not.

It depends on what your team payroll is. Defense and speed move up the list with a tight payroll (which limits the pool of available players). OBP has become more expensive over the last couple years. Defense and speed have become cheaper, where they were initially overvalued, especially defense. And yet Furcal gets an outrageous contract because of what? Speed & Defense. No. Furcal got that contract b/c a new GM wanted to make a splash. He was the best FA position player available. okaaayyy, what made him the best FA position player available? Answer without using the words speed, leadoff or defense, please. It's not that simple. A leadoff hitter is not someone that just has speed (or defense). It's someone who can get on base (consistently) at a decent clip with speed. That's pretty rare. Availability increases the price. You may not value that type of player, but others do. Throw in good defense and you get ridiculous FA offers. Look at guys like Bynum and Pagan. Tons of speed. Can't even make other teams 25 man rosters. We didn't even have to trade for Pagan, just purchased his contract. So yes, speed isn't valued that highly. Look at the A's, notorious bargain shoppers. Why is it that they have 3 CFers patroling the OF and a very solid defense? I thought power trumped speed and defense? It's all relative to what's available and cheap. Power and OBP aren't that cheap anymore. Without the speed and defense, Furcal sits on a bench somewhere. With the speed and defense (combined with the OBP), he's the #1 FA and gets paid a ridiculous contract. It is the speed and defense that is the difference here. Without the OBP, he's Jose Reyes and still gets insane amounts of publicity (and an insane contract when he goes FA, even though his OBP might still suck). You seem to be at once saying that speed and defense are undervalued and yet what made Furcal so special that he was the #1 FA and earned him a huge contract. I can't believe you don't see the conflict in your position. There is no conflict (Darth Vader impression). Speed, defense, and OBP are all separate quantities. Combine them together and you get value. Like I said, OBP is becoming valuable. Add OBP with speed and defense and you get something special. Speed by itself is not that valuable, as indicated by example with Pagan and Bynum. Defense is not that valuable. Guys like Neifi (that contract is way above what any other team would pay him) and Cedeno are a dime a dozen.

The Cards LF, RF & C are crap (offensively, at least). Their fifth starter is crap and their 3rd & 4th starters could wake up any day and remember that they've been crappy throughout their careers, too. Their bullpen is nowhere near the pen they've had the past couple years and Izzy is just a sneeze or two away from the DL again. Rolen has significant injury concerns and Edmonds is likely on the decline. I still like their chances better than ours, but it isn't like they don't have questions. They're the Cardinals. There's something to be said for luck. Take the same players and put them in Cubbie blue and they tear groins coming out the batters box. Their players have proven that they can play through pain and be productive, e.g. Rolen and Edmonds. Rolen is one tough SOB. Edmonds is a drama queen, but he can play injured. Pujols is a monster who consistently puts out. Lee has had one season with a .890+ OPS. Wow. Paint me impressed. The lowest Pujols has had is .955, otherwise he's above 1.010. Huge difference. Consistency is important. We have Pierre in CF, i.e. an unproductive hitter, so we'll call him a leadoff hitter to increase his value. Jones is a fricking joke. Murton is our salvation, but he won't touch Edmonds-like numbers this season. Wait until the season is over and compare OF production in Chicago and St. Louis. They'll take us easily unless Murton goes off with a .925+ OPS season.

It depends on what your team payroll is. Defense and speed move up the list with a tight payroll (which limits the pool of available players). OBP has become more expensive over the last couple years. Defense and speed have become cheaper, where they were initially overvalued, especially defense. And yet Furcal gets an outrageous contract because of what? Speed & Defense. No. Furcal got that contract b/c a new GM wanted to make a splash. He was the best FA position player available. okaaayyy, what made him the best FA position player available? Answer without using the words speed, leadoff or defense, please. It's not that simple. A leadoff hitter is not someone that just has speed (or defense). It's someone who can get on base (consistently) at a decent clip with speed. That's pretty rare. Availability increases the price. You may not value that type of player, but others do. Throw in good defense and you get ridiculous FA offers. Look at guys like Bynum and Pagan. Tons of speed. Can't even make other teams 25 man rosters. We didn't even have to trade for Pagan, just purchased his contract. So yes, speed isn't valued that highly. Look at the A's, notorious bargain shoppers. Why is it that they have 3 CFers patroling the OF and a very solid defense? I thought power trumped speed and defense? It's all relative to what's available and cheap. Power and OBP aren't that cheap anymore.

It depends on what your team payroll is. Defense and speed move up the list with a tight payroll (which limits the pool of available players). OBP has become more expensive over the last couple years. Defense and speed have become cheaper, where they were initially overvalued, especially defense. And yet Furcal gets an outrageous contract because of what? Speed & Defense. No. Furcal got that contract b/c a new GM wanted to make a splash. He was the best FA position player available.

It's not about the comparison of specific pieces on your team. It's the overall composition that makes you win. Our SS and RF are crap. pure and simple. Our pitching is the most worrisome aspect of our team. We could absolutely dominate if Wood, Prior, and Miller all get healthy and pitch like they can (unlikely considering the injuries/surgeries they have had). The Cards don't have those question marks. We have the potential, but their situation is more realized potential and not hopes and dreams of healthier days.

It depends on what your team payroll is. Defense and speed move up the list with a tight payroll (which limits the pool of available players). OBP has become more expensive over the last couple years. Defense and speed have become cheaper, where they were initially overvalued, especially defense.

Forget Hendry. Dayton Moore please. The sooner the McFailure is ditched, the sooner we can have a decent GM and a manager who isn't borderline [expletive].

The Furcal deal has inflated the price of speed quite a bit. Hard to see it as undervalued now. Pierre has been overrated for a while too on account of his speed and he's going to get way too big a deal, hopefuly not from the Cubs. The Furcal deal inflated the price of leadoff hitters (still TBD by Pierre's next contract), not speed. It's a fairly significant difference.

Then why'd we get rid of Patterson? b/c he couldn't get on base. what does that have to do with speed not slumping? i realize you can't use speed w/o getting on base, but that's a separate argument from speed not slumping.

So you admit that speed is not as important as OBP, but then you claim it's sickeninig that people don't think it's as important as OBP? Goony, you're putting words in his mouth. Where in his initial post (or any subsequent post) did he claim that it's sickening that people don't thinkit's important as OBP? He merely mentioned that Speed can and will play a huge part in the Cubs team this year - which is accurate. uh... he said it's sickening that you guys don't think it's important (not as important) b/c it isn't listed next to OBP and HR in a stats sheet. so yes, Goony did put words in his mouth.

Only when stealing bases.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/chc/community/bracelets.jsp

The only problem I have with Eyre throwing that many pitches is that we went from a warm climate (Arizona, Las Vegas) to Cinci, where it was pretty chilly by comparison.

Yes, eerily similar, right down to Z going 4 2/3 innings. Here's hoping someone doesn't tear a groin in a few weeks. maybe we'll get semi lucky and it'll be Jones.

Speed is quantifiable. Speed is important and today it is undervalued by the marketplace. That's why you see 3 CF across Oakland's OF. You don't need to play small ball to see the benefits of speed. 1st to 3rd instead of holding up at 2nd. 2nd to home instead of chilling at 3rd. Station to station ball is benefitted by speed. And yes, speed can be determined from a player's performance on the field quantitatively (and therefore statistically).

I'd say something on the order of 4 years, 50-55 million would be a pretty good deal for both sides. He's not going under Konerko's offer.

good job Bare Bare.

run Neifi run! :lol: