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Everything posted by Tracer Bullet
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The Official Go Mariners Thread
Tracer Bullet replied to Ding Dong Johnson's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Go Company Softball Team! -
Rich Hill
Tracer Bullet replied to badgercub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Uh, who are players A and B? They're both current Cubs. One's 26, one's 40. EDIT: I realize the order of my response may have been confusing. Player A is Maddux in his first year w/ the team, B is Hill last year. -
Rich Hill
Tracer Bullet replied to badgercub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
To start their careers Player A: 31 IP, 1.77 WHIP, 5.81 K/9, 1.82 K/BB Player B: 23 IP, 1.77 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 1.24 K/BB I'm just saying, Hill has 46.2 IP in his career over a handful of sporadic starts. Meanwhile, his stats in AAA when he starts every 5th day on a regular basis are phenomenal. We have absolutely nothing to lose by telling him he's starting every 5th game for the rest of the year. I think a little confidence and a little coaching might help this kid. And if not and he's really not talented enough for the ML, let's find out. It's not like he has any trade value now anyway. -
I agree to a point, but who becomes the big bopper on the Brew Crew now? Every lineup needs 1-2 guys to produce the big numbers, and the Brewers just got rid of their guy. I'd be ticked if I was a Brewers fan that the team couldn't work a deal to get Lee signed long term. Lee hasn't really been a great hitter until this year. I'm not sure if 1 year of greatness should garner more than the $48/4 deal they offered him (or even that much).
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I wouldn't bet on it. How many players in the Hendry era have received 5 year contracts (or longer)? He was willing to go five years to get Furcal. Luckily the Dodgers saved us on that one. Hopefully someone saves us on CLee too. I just don't have much interest in giving a 5-year deal to a guy on the wrong side of 30 who is having his best year in his contract year.
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FINAL SCORE (1) Rolling Stones-50 (5) The Kinks-19
Tracer Bullet replied to Derwood's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
We don't need to have this discussion in every thread about them, but your ability to just disregard Sticky Fingers amazes me. -
Prior and Wood aren't Santana and Liriano. Hunter, Ford, and Sterwart aren't exactly Murderer's Row. What about the Yankees and all of their injuries or the Dodgers and all of the injuries they have dealt with this year? There are comparisons to be made about how teams have dealt with injuries and the Cubs, Jim Hendry in particular constructed a roster that was ill prepared to handle any kind of injuries. The Cubs had a lack of starting pitching depth and a horrible bench add to that few if any prospects in the minors leagues that might be able to come in and give a hand (position players). Bingo, it's not just the Twins that overcome injuries. First, I'm just saying the Twins aren't a very good example of a team that has overcome key injuries. The Twins most important players (in no particular order) are Santana, Liriano, Nathan, Mauer, and Morneau. The production they lost from their OF was easier to replace w/ rookies and/or average bench players. I don't particularly like the Yankees example either. Matsui & Sheff weren't their top hitters this year (Giambi, Jeter, & ARod this year). And actually, they each have an OPS for the year near .800, which isn't too exciting for a corner OF (though they both had solid/great OBP). I don't know exactly how much more the Yankees payroll is than the Cubs, but it's sufficiently greater than they currently have 5 very expensive guys who at some point in the last 3 years have had an OPS of .900 or greater (that's a lie - Jeter is .898, but the other 4 were over .900 for at least one of the last 3 years). Off the top of my head, I can't think of another team where that's true (though there may be 1-2). But I'm not trying to defend JH or Baker. I think they are each to blame for this miserable collection of a team. I don't fault JH so much for not builiding a team that could withstand the loss of its best hitter, I fault him for constructing a team with only 2 hitters you can count on to clear .900 OPS (Barrett's a nice surprise this year, but no one saw that coming) and a team with so few guys that have OBP above league average. And I fault Dusty for not playing the guys that give us the best chance to win and not getting much out of the team generally (bad fundamentals, not hustling, not playing to potential, generally poor play).
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Prior and Wood aren't Santana and Liriano. Hunter, Ford, and Sterwart aren't exactly Murderer's Row.
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FINAL SCORE (1) Pink Floyd-46 (4) Guns N' Roses-34
Tracer Bullet replied to Derwood's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Not only can I not believe that GNR has the best chance to win, but only 1 of your last 2 sentences is true. And it's not the latter. -
Just b/c someone is found innocent, doesn't mean they are. The judicial system is far from perfect. BTW (unrelated to Derwood's post) - Reynolds is the one who came forth with the reason he was fired. As far as I know, no official word came from ESPN about the reason for the termination. So they didn't drag his name through the mud.
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FINAL SCORE (1) Led Zeppelin-51 (4) U2-23
Tracer Bullet replied to Derwood's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
A - I don't think it's possible to hate U2 too much :wink: B - In the real world, LZ would annihilate U2. well, one band has sold a bazillion albums, and the other has sold 2 bazillion albums, so I guess they are both, what, bazillionaires or something? Let me rephrase point B - in the real world, LZ is a much MUCH better band. The fact that they've both sold a ton of records doesn't mean much to me. Didn't N'Sync set a record for album sales when one of their albums came out? People with no musical taste whatsoever buy albums too. -
That is the most hysterical thing I have ever read. According to who? Just ignore the 30 hr vs 10, just ignore the rest of the numbers all you wish, but nobody in the whole baseball world will ever tell you Todd Walker is a better ballplayer than Soriano. Twist your numbers all you wish, but the fact doesn't change-Todd Walker is, has been and will always be a lesser player than Soriano, except maybe in your fantasy league.If Walker is so good at things, why hasn't anyone traded for him when he has been available for almost two years? Hendry overvaluing him, I certainly doubt it. NOBODY IS SAYING THAT TODD WALKER IS A BETTER BALLPLAYER THAN SORIANO Thanks. I couldn't figure out why I couldn't get my point across - font size. Never made the connection.
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FINAL SCORE (1) Led Zeppelin-51 (4) U2-23
Tracer Bullet replied to Derwood's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
A - I don't think it's possible to hate U2 too much :wink: B - In the real world, LZ would annihilate U2. -
Add Restovich to your second list. He just sat on the bench with the Cubs and is doing well at Iowa. He hit his 17th HR tonight. Add Hill to your second list too. 43 IP tells you nothing about a player's ability at the ML level (good or bad).
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Those stats tell me nothing. I don't see how they support your claim that he would have done worse in '05 if he'd played more. Nothing about his '05 stats indicate that he would have been worse if he had had another 150 PAs (esp since he was destroying LHP that year). He was just having a good year last year, for whatever reason. But still, you either aren't understanding the point I'm making or you're just not fully reading my posts. I'm not arguing that someone would take Walker over Soriano ever, even in '05. I'm simply saying Walker was the better player in '05. Soriano has always had more tools and potential (and hype), he's a few years younger, and frankly GMs are enamored with what he does (homers and SBs) and undervalue the things he does poorly (OBP) so they overlook that. But if given the choice to have Soriano or Walker, you'd take Soriano - b/c Soriano has the potential to put up those near-.900 OPS's he had in NY (or to have a career year - like this year). Walker's never been a .900 OPS player. He gets on at a good clip (.350-ish) and he'll give you a little pop most years (he's 34 now, so a rapid decline is not wholly unexpected). No one is saying that at their best, Walker is better than Soriano. We're just saying that in 2005, Walker performed better. Why that's so hard to accept, I don't know.
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That is the most hysterical thing I have ever read. According to who? Just ignore the 30 hr vs 10, just ignore the rest of the numbers all you wish, but nobody in the whole baseball world will ever tell you Todd Walker is a better ballplayer than Soriano. Twist your numbers all you wish, but the fact doesn't change-Todd Walker is, has been and will always be a lesser player than Soriano, except maybe in your fantasy league.If Walker is so good at things, why hasn't anyone traded for him when he has been available for almost two years? Hendry overvaluing him, I certainly doubt it. Walker was the better player in '05. I just don't know how to make it any clearer. Walker's .355 OBP and .829 OPS > Soriano's .309 OBP, .821 OPS, and 30/30 year.
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I think the point was that Walker's stats in 2004 and 2005 were artificially inflated by keeping him on the bench against tough lefties. Put another way, do you think Walker's OPS+ in those years would have been just as high if he played every day? Who are "tough lefties"? As noises pointed out, Soriano's struggled against some good pitchers (Harden, etc) and also some average to bad pitchers (Washburn, Kennedy). So if you hand pick the guys that a player struggles against and remove those ABs, yes, his #s will go up. But how do you know that the guys Walker didn't face are guys he would struggle against? Dusty sat him almost randomly last year, more often against LHP, but it's not like there are a ton of dominant LHP in the NL anyway. So no, I don't think his OPS+ would have been significantly different and you have nothing but speculation to support your claim that it would be. And oh, as far as sitting Walker against LHP - his OPS against lefties last year was .980, so that doesn't really help you. Walker was having a very solid year last year and Soriano was struggling. In '05 (and 04) Walker was just the better player. I'll look for his plaque in Cooperstown in a few years. No one will ever believe me, but I hadn't read this when I was typing my last post. This is simply hysterical to me. I said "Walker was a better player than a guy who was league average for 2 years." You read" Walker belongs in the HOF"
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The best part about arguing w/you is seeing how you'll twist other people's posts. No one is ignoring XBH, RBI, or SB - though I suppose it wouldn't hurt if they did. A guy w/ a .350 OBP is better than a guy with a .300 OBP and 30 steals. And I don't recall seeing anyone say that Walker has had a better career. Soriano had 2 really good seasons in NY and 1 this year. Walker has had 2 solid seasons in '04 and '05, and a good year in '98. But Soriano, esp given that he's 3-4 years younger, is the more valuable player going forward. The arguments have been this: 1. Soriano is not a superstar, based on production; he's only a "superstar" b/c of his big salary and hype, and 2. Walker was the better player in '04 and '05. If you want to present any evidence or arguments to refute either of those claims, great. But I imagine, like always, you'll twist this post to say I'm campaiging to put Walker in the HOF or something.
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I think the point was that Walker's stats in 2004 and 2005 were artificially inflated by keeping him on the bench against tough lefties. Put another way, do you think Walker's OPS+ in those years would have been just as high if he played every day? Who are "tough lefties"? As noises pointed out, Soriano's struggled against some good pitchers (Harden, etc) and also some average to bad pitchers (Washburn, Kennedy). So if you hand pick the guys that a player struggles against and remove those ABs, yes, his #s will go up. But how do you know that the guys Walker didn't face are guys he would struggle against? Dusty sat him almost randomly last year, more often against LHP, but it's not like there are a ton of dominant LHP in the NL anyway. So no, I don't think his OPS+ would have been significantly different and you have nothing but speculation to support your claim that it would be. And oh, as far as sitting Walker against LHP - his OPS against lefties last year was .980, so that doesn't really help you. Walker was having a very solid year last year and Soriano was struggling. In '05 (and 04) Walker was just the better player.
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Except Soriano's R/L OPS split was only .060 in '04 and his OPS was .110 better against righties (in other words - reverse split) in '05. If he had sat against RHP in '05, his numbers would have been worse. I'm not saying he would need to sit against all RHP, just the tough ones and ones he has had little success against, like Baker does with Walker. Just glancing at RetroSheet.com, I saw Soriano has sub .200BA/.250OBP against the following pitchers who were in the AL West (with at least 20AB against) - Bartolo Colon, John Lackey, Jarrod Washburn, Joe Kennedy, and Rich Harden. Take those AB away, and I bet Soriano's OBP increases significantly. First of all, if you take away all of Walker's ABs against guys he hasn't done well against, his OBP will increase significantly too. I'm sorry, but that's just an insane argument. You don't get to remove all of Soriano's bad ABs and use that as support for a claim that he's better than Walker. Second, I'm confused by your post. I think you're saying that the list you supplied is a group of RHP against whom Soriano has struggled - so remove them to compensate for Baker sitting Walker against select LHPs. Problem being, 2 of those guys listed are LHPs. So you're really just removing Soriano's stats against a small group of pitchers that he's performed poorly against. Of course his stats are better if you remove 100 bad ABs. That doesn't really prove anything though, does it?
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FINAL SCORE (1) Pink Floyd-46 (4) Guns N' Roses-34
Tracer Bullet replied to Derwood's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Isn't it: You know where you are [Pink Floyd]? You're in the Jungle, baby. You're gonna die. -
It's quite possible. It's also quite possible that he's Adrian Beltre redux. That is a good point, but I think Soriano pre-walk year was better than Beltre was pre-walk year (by some margain). Thus, it appears to be less a motivation issue (which is Beltre's problem) than maturing as a hitter (Soriano's problem?). Still, I see your point. I don't know if it's really a maturing issue either. He had 2 good years in '02 and '03 (.880 and .863 OPS). This year is far exceeding even those, but he went from 2 solid years, to 2 average years, to a career year (coinciding with his contract year). Maybe just figuring it out at 30. Maybe just wants a big pay day. Maybe just lucky. Who knows what's going on. I'm just saying I wouldn't trade a top prospect for him while counting on his .950+ OPS to continue.
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Well, if your comment about stat geeks wasn't intended to attack other posters on this board, I don't understand the point, but whatever. As for Walker and Soriano, this year, Soriano has been better. The 2 previous years, Walker was. The 2 years before that? Soriano was better - he had 2 really good years in '02 and '03 (esp 02). But, as others have said, Soriano's contract is based on hype & potential, which he is matching with performance this year. He wasn't doing that in '04 and '05. As for whether Texas would have traded Soriano for Walker last year, I don't know. Do you?

