Tracer Bullet

Ronny's IsoP (Isolated Power, SLG-BA) is .03 higher, and his IsoD (Isolated Discipline, OBP-BA) is .017. The power difference is basically the difference between Soto and Lee this year. The major difference right now between the two is that Theriot gets quite a few more singles, basically, to prop up the OBP and SLG with batting average. The OPS difference overall is quite minimal. 30 points of OPS is hardly "quite minimal." And, of course, what better time than now to try and favorably compare Cedeno to Theriot? Up until recently, Theriot has been a 760 OPS player all year and Ronny has been around a 690-700 OPS player. Certainly makes them look more comparable right after Theriot busted out of a 1-24 slump. I'm glad you refrained from comparing Theriot favorably to Cedeno when Cedeno was struggling. I'm certainly glad that people didn't go around calling Cedeno useless and question why he was in the majors while he was struggling. The entire season matters, and the fact that Theriot struggled recently means it's unfair to compare him to Cedeno? Did I say that it's unfair to compare him to Cedeno? No. I simply said (in a pretty straight-forward way) that it sure is convenient that all the Cedeno guys are coming out again now that Theriot is slumping. No one was calling for Theriot to get less playing time earlier in the year; the guy finally goes through a rough patch and everyone calls for his head again so that the great Ronny Cedeno can get more time! Why in the hell would people call for Cedeno to play while Theriot was playing well and Cedeno wasn't? Also, this argument was beaten to death in many threads in the off-season. But if you look back at some of those threads, you'll see some posts looking for more ABs for Cedeno when he started the year on an absolute tear (even though Theriot was playing well too).

Ronny's IsoP (Isolated Power, SLG-BA) is .03 higher, and his IsoD (Isolated Discipline, OBP-BA) is .017. The power difference is basically the difference between Soto and Lee this year. The major difference right now between the two is that Theriot gets quite a few more singles, basically, to prop up the OBP and SLG with batting average. The OPS difference overall is quite minimal. I would almost always give a statistical advantage to the guy playing everyday over someone spot starting/pinch hitting on very rare occasions. Thus, I don't think it's all that fair to compare the two statistically. Looking closely at Cedeno's splits, his best month was directly following Spring Training, where he more than likely saw more regular at bats. As the season progressed, his stats trended downward as he saw less and less at bats. Granted, he most certainly wouldn't have been able to match what he did in March/April all season long, but it makes perfect sense that someone's timing starts deteriorating when they receive limited plate appearances over the course of a long season. With that said, there aren't many good utility infielders floating around and I don't know how much more anyone could expect from any replacement for Cedeno. I don't think anyone could have predicted what Fontenot has done this season, and I don't think you can predict that same production next year. I think it depends. With a player like Ronnie, the limited at-bats aren't taking advantage of a massive platoon split, so I think it's reasonable to think he'd be better with full-time play. In other circumstances -- Reed Johnson, Matt Murton -- the overall numbers look better in part time play because a disproportionate number of at bats come with a huge platoon advantage. Neither Murton nor Johnson has looked as good in full time play when they are required to face RHP 70% of the time. Is there some place that breaks down RHP/LHP by 1st half/2nd half? I ask b/c Murton was great in the 2nd half of both '06 and '07. In '06, he started 52 games in the second half, which is pretty regular ABs and I doubt we faced 52 starting LHPs from mid-July to October 1 of that year. I don't think it's so easy to say that Murton's limited playing time helped him as his overall numbers were weighed down greatly by PH ABs, especially in '07.

Mizzou will buy them (so he can resell them)

yes that's true, but one also has to assume that luck will even out over time. some months theriot will have more singles drop in and be a very productive player; other months those batted balls will be caught more frequently and he'll have very little value. he's drawn 69 walks in 641 PAs this year, which is a rate comparable to lee and ramirez. i don't know why pitchers would walk him, but they have been this year, and i think the cat has been out of the bag for quite a while on him not being a power hitter. he's in the bottom 20 in baseball in frequency swinging at pitches; most guys in this group are guys you'd expect to see - cust, dunn, abreu, swisher. he's 7th in baseball in zone%, which i'm pretty sure means percent of pitches he sees within the strike zone. so pitchers throw him a lot of strikes, but he still manages to walk a lot. it's strange, but i don't think the spread is that large between the # of strikes that theriot sees and the # of strikes that a guy like adam dunn sees. pitchers probably don't vary their approach as much as they should. of course it's unfair. he's a little below average, but people make him out to be a complete butcher. he makes a very high percentage of plays on balls hit to him or in his area; his range is limited and his arm is fringy. this ends up making him a little below average. just because he made an error in an important spot that you remember does not make him any worse of a defensive player. overall, he'll give you above-average obp and below-average power at his position, plus a little below-average defense. he is essentially to shortstop what matt murton was to corner outfield. in the absence of a better in-house alternative, you're probably going to need a few players like this on the roster - adequate players making the major league minimum, so that you can afford to pay the big-production veterans. One significant difference between Murton & Theriot was the age at which they put up this "adequate" production in the majors. Murton was just about to enter his peak years, so it was reasonable to assume that given regular playing, his production would improve (he didn't really get that). Theriot is in his prime and so this is about as good as it gets. And with Theriot, you have Cedeno pushing him for a shot. We disagree on whether Cedeno deserves this shot, but I don't think it's fair to say there aren't any in-house options deserving of a shot at SS. I also think it's not entirely accurate to compare his numbers to other SS, given that he's not a good SS. You say "little below average" but I think range and arm strength are really important for SS (things Cedeno has). Theriot makes most of the plays hit right at him, but he flubs some of those too. I'd say he's more than a little below average, but it's somewhat subjective and it's splitting hairs. He's below average defensively and average at best offensively in his peak. I'd readily give up that combination to give a shot to a much younger kid that destroyed AAA twice, but again, we disagree on that.

Guess you can say he was a pleasant surprise :) I don't know about that. He still has had problems allowing rookies to adjust to the bigs... Pie had almost no chance at all, and Fukudome getting benched with the lead we have in the division was just plain stupid. And there's no doubting that he's made plenty of stupid in-game moves... and they seem to come more often in games he deems critical, which makes me nervous about seeing Soto trying to bunt again during the playoffs. He's been better than I expected, but he hasn't been fantastic. Yeah, that about sums it up for me too. Though, as someone else mentioned, if I had known he was going to hire Perry and emphasize OBP, I wouldn't have been so against it. I don't recall being terribly vocal about not wanting Lou, but I might have been. He's been good enough - hasn't screwed up so bad that he's lost us some games or destroyed the careers of 2 of our great young pitchers, so he's got that going for him, which is nice.

I paid $175. So my two bleacher tix cost me $156 with all the fees and shipping included. All in all I paid $331 for the pair. ($175 password + $156 to the Cubs box office) Definitely much better than the $800/pair you're probably looking at for 2 bleachers. Hopefully this works. I think it will. As far as I know, once the tickets are sold, the Cubs don't give a sh!t who bought them. I would think you will be fine. A friend of mine paid for the tickets and our addresses don't match and I've already printed my tickets.... Until you show up at Wrigley, they scan your tickets at the gates, then the alarm goes off and the snipers take aim. I mean, I'm sure it'll be fine. Enjoy the game!

It's been 100 years. These prices seem cheap. Its been 63 years. No, we're winning it this year. We've never won a World Series in the history of Wrigley Field. Yes, I know that. Jesus people, was it really that hard to understand that I was suggesting that the team was going to win a WS for the first time in 100 years. Cripes.

It's been 100 years. These prices seem cheap. Its been 63 years. No, we're winning it this year.

It's been 100 years. These prices seem cheap.

I was in college and watching on TV. That was the exact moment that I stopped liking Brant Brown (I really was pulling for him until that moment).

That would be stupid unless we think we're going to win in 3 and want Harden to start G1 of the NLCS. Personally, I'd start Harden in G1 so you can start him to close out the NLDS (if necessary) or start G1 of the NLCS. If Dempster is going first, I'd at least switch Harden and Lilly.

NL Division Series Tickets: TBD at Chicago Cubs - Home Game 1 (Dates TBA - Tickets will ship end of Sept.) at Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL Section:Infield Club Box 19Row:4Price:$2,850.00 eachQuantity: 4 OUCH! It pretty much guarantees that the real fans will not be sitting close to the action (unless they are season ticket holders...) or just rich fans... i think you have to be a decent size fan to drop that amount on the 1st round. or have clients/business partners you're trying to impress Though I think the general sentiment that if you're rich, you're not a "real fan" is a load of crap (and not b/c I'm rich, b/c I'm not)

2 and 3 That is the amount of extra base hits Theriot had in those months respectively. I'm all for OBP, but if you convert those months to wOBA, I believe you are going to get two below league average months, the first one being way below league average. Like I've said about 80 bagillion times, Theriot's peripherals don't show that hes gotten lucky, but his utter and complete lack of power (which I believe is purposeful as his FB rate has dropped significantly), leaves him as a player that is more dependent on luck than pretty much every other player in baseball. We've seen the regression happen within this season and last season. This isn't just a slump or him getting tired. This is to be expected when you don't put the ball into play with power. Hes making the most of his talents and I'm grateful to him to recognize and do that, lots of players don't, but hes no great shakes by any stretch of the imagination. If I were defending against Theriot, I'd put the 3b about even with the pitcher and put the rest of the team between second and first with no one more than 25' in the OF grass. But that's just me.

Are we sure it's email notifications? I'm gonna run home and check the mail from Saturday. See if it's mixed in with the missing kids. You have a pile of missing children? define "pile"

If he's really "wearing down" should we be a little concerned that playing 150 games is too much for him? I could understand if he were a catcher or fat like Prince Fielder, but doesn't seem like a SS should tank quite as hard as Theriot does. Of course, in 2007, he didn't so much "wear down" at the end of the year as he just sucked every month except 1. His August was about the same as his April and his September was just a little worse than his June.

Contest is only open to people in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin. What the hell? To stop people who buy tickets just to sell them for profit. I'm geographically closer to Wrigley than many people in Indiana, Wisconsin or parts of Illinois. This is BS.

Thanks all. Can we win this game 15-14 if we don't let Orton throw any more passes?

What happened there ("watching" online, sorry)? Did we just line up on 4th and 1 and break one for 40 yards or was it a punt fake?

Isn't there some sort of "corn queen" crowned in Shepherd? I only ask b/c I think the secretary that sits outside my office knows you from Shepherd and we give her a hard time for being corn queen. Oh - and great work.

I'm surprised the concern around Wrigley is parking. With the red line stopping so close you could almost jump off the train into the park, I just don't see it as being a big concern. Wrigley, 30. Though I would like to see some work done. Fewer obstructed view seats would be nice.

I never wanted Ced.

No and I've never really understood this. I get the strength of schedule argument, but if you really loathe a team, I can't imagine routing for them in any game.

I'm more impressed when a 6-7, 250 lb white boy does it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m909cpzceZk&feature=related Was he running in cement? ETA: this one was better. And it fulfilled a promise to a boy on his death bed.

Have they ever played this game when both teams are not ranked or did that happen last year? I want to say it has happened a couple of other times. Last year obviously neither team was ranked because they both came in 0-2. Those calling this the worst ND/UM game must have short memories, because not only were the two teams looking worse entering the game last year than this year, but it wasn't even a close game as Michigan destroyed us 38-0 in the most humiliatingly lopsided loss in recent ND football history. It's the only game I have ever given up on watching before the first half was even over. Michigans offense isnt in the league of what they had last year. The collection of players on that team compared to this team isnt even close. This year is so much worse for UM, ND might not be as bad but probably not that good. Michigans defense is solid but man that offense makes the game ugly. NDs offense is probably better. At least after last years game you could say there was a good team on the field. After the final whistle you will be hard pressed to say one of these teams are good. Michigan wasn't nearly as good as ND made them look last year. But their offense had some talent and loads of experience. Now Michigan has almost the same level of inexperience ND's offense had last year and less talent at the skill positions. This game has the potential to be absolutely brutal. As an ND fan, I don't think it will be that bad, but that's more rose-colored glasses of hopefulness than the result of any kind of analysis.

Spending 5/75 million for a closer is stupid no matter who you are. 15 million a year for a closer. Wow! As a Cubs fan, I'd love for the Mets to spend $75m on K-Rod.