craig

I'll predict two pitchers will be very effective: David Berg and Preston Morrison. Both are obviously prove-it-at-every-level guys. But I'll predict that Morrison continues to be effective at Myrtle, ERA < 3, and Berg will continue to be effective at Myrtle and Tennessee. Control goes a long way in A-ball; few hitters have the power to HR-penalize them when they do throw slow fastballs for strikes; and minor leaguers have very little experience with sidearm pitching. Of course at the end of the season, even though they are effective minor leaguers, we'll still have no idea what to make of them or how seriously to consider them as major-league prospects. But I won't be at all surprised if Morrison ends up being the Cubs minor-league pitcher of the year.

Are you guys expecting Candelario to skip up to AAA right off? I'd guess he'll start in AA again, and get mid-season promotion if he does well. Last year he had a .770 OPS with 10 HR. Even in Southern, he was .840 in a hot spell. Hopefully he'll step it up, and he's ready to explode. But I think there's a good chance that he'll be back as a .770-.840 type OPS guy, with defense that's variably evaluated as average. Not a top-50 type guy, or the major piece in a trade for a TORP. If he does go straight to PCL, offense there is pretty inflated. Being an .800-.850 type guy in PCL is nice enough for a young player, but it's not very wow. I'm predicting that he won't be very wow.

That's kind of how I'm seeing it too, for an optimistic but not unrealistic scenario. 15HR maybe on the high side, but .280-ish and .325-ish sound pretty reasonable, that's not ridiculous. 12-15 HR, upside could boost the slugging a little bit, maybe .425. .280-.325-.425 would be a .750-OPS guy. Very good player with the defense, not a star. That's around his career minor-league output: .287-.323-.416, so it's hardly like some fantasy dream with a radical change in profile. The challenge in projecting his big-league output to mirror his minor-league output, of course, is that few players match in the majors what they did in the minors. So, if he's been .739 in minors, can I really realistically hope he might be .730-.750 in majors? Not likely, no. But not absurd to hope for either. He's been young for his leagues, and as Cubswin has noted a large chunk of his history was during an adjustment period. I expect that the improvement in walk-rate this past year is real. He won't sustain his low K-rate in the majors, nobody can against the awesomeness of big-league pitchers, and especially if he's going back to serious leg-kick. So to hang in the .730-.750 range in the majors, won't happen without adding an extra five HR's and getting into double figures.

I liked the muscle bit. Would be great if Almora added some strength and some explosion. I've always wondered for some hitters if adding some raw power might change the strategy a bit. Not much point in swinging for long flies if they just end up at the track or less. But if hitting long fly balls instead of line drives or hard grounders starts getting a productive number of HR's, which help batting average and OBP and walks as well as slugging, maybe you situationally swing for lifting the ball more often. So being strong enough to drive the ball could be significant. Tom's mentioned a Barney ceiling. Almora has hit 6 and 9 HR's as 21 and 20-hear-old. That's not that far short of becoming a 12-15 HR guy with added strength. Barney with 12-15 HR's might have a different career. As might have been Barney with walks. Almora walked reasonably much last year, 32 walks/405 AB isn't great but it's not problematic, an .057 IsoD is pretty OK for a guy who might hit for solid average if he added a few HR-hits to the game. The positivity about Contreras's defense is also interesting. OK, Theo's an admin, it's his job to pump his guys, I get that. But, I like it anyway. Contreras as a bat-first catcher, and that without real HR-power, that's one thing. Contreras as a defensive force who also hits, that's quite a bit more interesting. It's spring. I love the happy stories of spring where everybody has added some good strength, or made an adjustment that's going to make them better.

De la Cruz looks really good. Eloy remains inconsistent and doesn't hit a ton of HR's, but makes pretty good progress in full season and remains well valued. McKinney starts late so doesn't rack up volume stats, but has a good year in AA. Almora and Contreras put up .780- and 820-type OPS in Iowa. Happ strikes out like crazy and looks like the next Brett Jackson without the CF defense. Martinez stays in Mesa for quite a while, and doesn't hit a lot after being promoted to box-score league. Candelario doesn't sustain enough offense to be highly valued. Pierce Johnson starts the season healthy and stays healthy, does well at Iowa, and looks pretty good with the Cubs. Edwards improves his control somewhat and becomes an interesting back-of-bullpen guy by late summer. Tseng has a better year in AA, throws 92-ish more consistently, gets more K's, and gets more interest. Skulina starts and stays healthy, and ends up getting valued. Stinnett rediscovers his slider and K's a lot more people. Donnie Dewees hits a surprising number of HR's and has a high average. Zastryzny stays healthy enough to allow a shocking number of HR's. Sands falls off the map. Adbert Alzolay K's guys like crazy and becomes a serious prospect. Cease remains prohibitively wild.

Nothing stays the same, of course, and usually guys hit worse in the most difficult level in the world. But if he could be the same .287/.323/.416 guy in the majors, I'd consider that quite solid for a plus-defense CFer. There were 12 CFers last year who finished above .730-OPS, and I'm not sure Dexter was the only one who's a lesser-defender than Almora. A .739-OPS Almora could start a lot of games for a lot of teams. The problem, of course, is whether he can improve enough to hit that well in the majors. I hope so, but think it's less than probable.

Nothing stays the same, of course, and usually guys his worse in the most difficult level in the world. But if he could be the same .287/.323/.416 guy in the majors, I'd consider that quite solid for a plus-defense CFer. There were 12 CFers last year who finished above .730-OPS, and I'm not sure Dexter was the only one who's a lesser-defender than Almora. A .739-OPS Almora could start a lot of games for a lot of teams. The problem, of course, is whether he can improve enough to hit that well in the majors. I hope so, but think it's less than probable.

Almora. I had him #3 when I made my lists at the end of September, and no reason to change it now. (Well, maybe Heyward is a reason.....) No sure things here. Almora's defense really opens doors for him, and the offensive bar isn't that high for a high-end defensive center fielder. Combine his defense with a .730-OPS and you'd have a very valuable major leaguer. For him to be a .700+ guy in the majors, granted that's very iffy. But with his low-K profile, it's not unrealistic either.

Nothing stays the same for prospects. If Almora hits well for Iowa, his former slumps won't matter. And if he struggles in Iowa, last August will be forgotten soon enough. Unwritten story. Having a "meh" guy who was just boringly good, say .730-OPS with double-plus defense, if that's your worst "meh" guy, not sure that's a problem.

yes, yes, yes. Have Almora become a fine, good, player, but the Schwarber-Heyward-Soler outfield be such mashers that even if Almora could be an asset 3-WAR guy elsewhere, that he's a 4th for us.

McLeod interview from a few days back: http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2 ... -radio.php Two tangents from the Underwood bit, having two off-speed pitches that are plus or double plus at times, but not getting K's because he's not mixing optimally, not best-utilizing what's sharpest on a give day, not knowing how to sequence, etc: 1. I wonder how much that depends on the catcher versus the pitcher himself? Shouldn't the catcher have the smarts to know? It's one of the reasons I'm curious on Caratini in intangible aspects of catching. 2. Scouts often focus on the "best" pitches. The plus or double-plus offspeedthat can make hitters look sick? But to some degree, it's about consistency. If guy throws 25 double-plus curves, but also throws 6 hangers, isn't it the hangers that go for the HR's and the losses? Might be one way to explain Underwood being said to have plus/double-plus, but still being HR-oriented. 3. "Bad" pitches can be hangers, but I think can also be "tipped". Sometimes a guy reaches a point in his comfort level with delivery where he can finally throw the curve and the change with the same motion and no "tells" to the hitters. Maybe that point will be this year for Underwood? 4. In low minors, the point is development. If a curve or change isn't working on a given day, I assume they are told to keep throwing it and practicing anyway. May be a quota for curves and changes per inning, or something? I wonder if AA might be a level where now you're pitching to win and to get guys out, and they do start pitching their game based on what's working on a given day? If so, perhaps Underwood will benefit? Anyway, will be interesting to see how Underwood looks this year. Would be fun to see the K's spike and the HR's drop without much jump in walks.

Thanks, Cal. That was a very detailed interview. I thought the comments on delaCruz were helpful, he said 90-95, mostly 92. That's good, and the kid perhaps projects for more future. But a mostly 92 RHP, that isn't exactly dominant or overpowering. The stuff about Contreras and his personality/areas-that-needed-development was quite interesting. Having a good "clock" is really desirable, and perhaps he hasn't shown that. But I'd rather have a guy who was highly energized than a player who's kind of lethargic and can't stay focuses. The Underwood bit was also interesting, having the plus or double-plus pitches at times, but maybe not being sophisticated on how to use them or to recognize what's sharp on a given day, and not having them consistently.

3 Cubs in BA's top 100: Torres 41 Contreras 67 Happ 87

Yes, not promising. Maybe we did spend most of the discretionary money on Heyward....

Yes, agree with your main point. Hard to get top-5 without showing enough power progress to project as a teens-range HR guy.

You're using words like "fringe" and "likely to stick through his cost-controlled years". You have "very little" doubt, and you "think" he's "likely" to stick. The scouts like Law who rank Torres really high aren't putting in all those cautionary/escape/guarded phrasing. They like him; they are convinced he will play good, asset SS defense. No cautionary caveats. Lindor, maybe not. But I think he's expected to be very much of the Addison Russell type. None of Russell's individual defensive tools graded great, but he graded very well this summer. The "efficiency" you talk about, I think that's the key. That's why Russell is so good, and I think the Torres guys see that in him as well. The "clock" factor, too. You guys are probably too young to remember, but I think Torres like Russell is expected to be more like Rey Sanchez than Shawon Dunston.

Toonster, you're kind of so-so on Torres's defense. I think some scouts like his defense a lot more than you do. Law is one of them.

Torres. My understanding is that there are zero questions about his SS defense, that he safely projects as a big-league SS, and will probably be a plus big-league defensive SS. My understanding is that he's much like Russell defensively; he's really good, really smooth/coordinated/polished/instinctive, even though he may not have a Dunston arm or look super fast. With Contreras, he's my definite #2.I think questions remain whether he can become above-average or average as an overall big-league defensive catcher, when framing and blocking and pitch-calling and pitcher-handling and all of those things get considered. So for me it's the defensive no-worries-excellent versus the defensive-not-so-sure-yet that distinguished Torres and Contreras. That said, with Russell at SS, I won't be surprised if Torres ends at 2nd, where he'll be a big defensive asset just as Russell was at 2nd. Not because he's not a good defender who'd be good at SS, just because SS is blocked. Think "might end up at 2B" sometimes implies defensive limits, maybe-not-good-enough-for-SS. Doesn't apply here at all in Torres case.

Law's Cubs: 15. Gleyber Torres 27. Willson Contreras 47. Ian Happ 69 Billy McKinney 88. Albert Almora 91. Dylan Cease As was noted yesterday, he's shockingly high on Torres, Contreras, and Happ, all three. Bump three individuals top-50, two top-27, and you're going to rank the overall system pretty high. Those three guys are the divergence between Law and BA, I think. Being that high on one, not shocking. I doubt other evaluations will go that high on all three, though.

He's a big Happ fan, too, and I think he really likes Gleyber also.

Apparently, Bowden said the Cubs were one of the 9 teams (not that it's surprising) I'd say that's extremely surprising, if it's actually true, particularly if Bowden's bit about perhaps as much as $30M has any merit. That would be very surprising to me if the Cubs are in discussion on a guy that would be even remotely close to $60M with tax. The good point is that if there is anything to it, that confirms the Cubs have some $$ left. I know some of you have been confident that was true, but I've been less certain. So, even assuming we don't get Lazarito, hopefully they'll find somebody else who's worth spending some money on.

Thanks for Caratini post, Tom. I heard that interview, nice to see it spelled out exactly. Very positive about the hitting.

thanks, Tom. Nice little interview. Yes, he sounded pretty positive on Edwards. I thought he was fairly positive on Johnson, too. I thought his comments on McKinney were interesting. He talked about what a good approach, good eye, good hitter he was, but that he wouldn't have "big" power; but he talked about hitting 20 HR! Seems to me that 20HR, while not perhaps Bryant-esque "big power", is still plenty of power. How many guys hit over 20 HR's? There's only 20 guys who hit 30 HR's last year. A McKinney with 20-HR, with his contact and walks, could be an enormously valuable offensive player. Other McKinney comment was that after his injury, McLeod didn't think the hard fields in Arizona would be safe for him. So sounds like he'll have a delayed and compromised spring, and presumably a compromised season as a whole.

That is pretty depressing collection of top-10 lists.

Wait and see is correct, and hopefully Law and Kiley are right, we stole him, and he's going to be a fine player. I do admit some doubts about the "Yankees offered $10M" story. Strains credulity that a guy was offered $10M and ended up in a position where he accepted $2.6 (Giants) and $3.0 Cubs offers.