craig

Rujano has apparently already committed to the Cubs. Kantro said he expected 18 or 19 to sign. I'm guessing Blatter is the guy who won't sign, and will go to Alabama and the SEC instead. Why take a guy you don't expect to sign? Not sure. Back in the old days, they'd always draft a couple of guys who they couldn't afford. At least, they couldn't afford unless either the player changed his mind and agreed for less than expected; or unless an expensive guy failed his physical, freeing up dollars. I imagine the other possibility is that maybe a guy won't sign now because he wants to try JuCo next spring. The latter might make sense for a kid like Blatter; is he so good that he'll actually get innings at Alabama? He might be better off to play a year in Juco, and reassess. Maybe take $125 or $200 from the Cubs and go pro? Maybe don't, but if you've been so great maybe go into the draft and go higher? Or maybe go to Alabama, but with the understanding that you'll get a lot of innings once in the SEC, rather than maybe going now as a freshman and getting only 9 innings all season?

I'm a little conflicted on Mule. He seems like a really high-ceiling possibility, given the high velocity that he was clocked with once. So super exciting. So I love the possibilities, and I love the chance for Breslow and the pitch-lab guys to have a big-armed young guy that they can try to develop from the start. So I love all of that, and the hope that comes with it. But as with any young prospect, and any pitcher really, I have several hesitancies: 1. Will velocity be amazing? Triple-digits is an attention-getter, but reports said he wasn't that fast this spring. Trevor Clifton and Duane Underwood come to mind as guys who'd hit 99 as juniors, who were perceived as exciting signs, who had solid velocity as pros but never anything amazing. 2. Injury risk: Reports said he had a sore arm this spring. Of course injury risk comes with every pitcher. But lots of sore-armed HS pitchers end up with arm problems. 3. Wildman: Reports suggested more thrower more than pitcher. We've seen a lot of guys recently who throw hard but are too wild to be very useful. 4. Pitchlab: My read is that the pitch lab has been more effective in improving velocity and pitch shape than in remediating control issues. Helping wildmen like Maples, Burl, or Jensen to locate consistently hasn't really been consistently transformative? Obviously there is no drafting young pitches without risk, and I'm sure without the risks he'd not have still been available in round 4. Cubs are maybe overdue to click on some high-risk-high-reward guys.

I'm a big optimist, it's fun. So I admit I'm pretty fascinated with the draft. I'm no scout and no nothing, but I'm currently of the Cubbie-koolaid mind that Kantrovitz is smart; that Breslow and the pitch-lab process is really good; and that Hawkins adds insight into pitching scouting-and-development. So I think it's really fun to provide Breslow and the pitching-development team some volume of excellent talent to work with. Having draft few talented pitchers lately, and then with most of them being injured a lot, I feel like Breslow hasn't had the biggest pool of talent to work with. So I think this is really an exciting draft. I also like the concept of taking Harton underslot so that with Ferris they've added two rotation prospects that they scouts as top-20-worthy picks. I wasn't sure how the Horton-Ferris prices would come into yesterday; so actually being able to afford three HS projection picks is really fun. Getting top-10 draft budget and overage sure helps. This should be a fun several years to see where Ferris, McGwire, Mule, and Paccioloa are at by age 21 and 22. There's been a lot of hype about Breslow and the pitch lab. This gives him the collection of arms to put the hype to the test. Would be so awesome to have it turn out great and have the hype be vindicated.

I almost think that Law including Horton in the top-100 and as a 3rd rounder, before he flashed the killer slider, and before he actually pitched effectively, speaks to his stuff and how projectable he was even before the slider and the explosion. Don't think that reflects either that Law is dumb or that the Cubs reached.

Pitching is strange. Gallardo had given up 19 runs over his previous 4 starts and 18 innings, and then just like that he pulls out an outing like this. His previous season-high for K's was 7. What a weird world. Would be cool if there was some adjustment that unleashed a game like tonight, as Tom observed. This one gets his ERA down under 4, and his hits has slipped under innings, 80 hits in 81.2 IP. Espinoza at South Bend isn't a glamour prospect, and he's been getting hit hard a lot lately. Part of me thinks his rotation spot could be given to Devers even if Wicks didn't get promoted. But, I'm not the development guy. It's always possible that if Gallardo or Espinoza have a stretch of games that weren't great statistically, perhaps there was developmental purpose and they were trying something? Beats me.

Marisnick was an excellent prospect. There are many excellent prospects who don't turn out; and others who turn out very well. With Alcantara, we don't know now, for sure there is a chance that for such a long guy with such long levers, that big-league pitchers will eat him up. But there is also a chance that he will be VERY good. Too soon to know either way. That's life with prospects. Rebuilding always has an element of luck, you need some favorable outcomes on uncertain prospects.

... I kinda feel like BA can't forget it's former "top prospect" rating. I suspect lots of guys could post an effective 7K 5-inning outing like Espinoza had without getting on the hot sheet. But given their former ranking, I think one sharp game catches their attention. Would like to see him stack some good games. Would be fun if he somehow emerged, for sure. But poor control and a mediocre fastball makes it variably unlikely.

Eeeeeeh. I get it from the position that the system doesn't have any obvious stars and we're shy on pitchers so load up favored young bats. Beyond that I don't see how like an .8andchange OPS hitting in the high .260s to low .270s so far during round 2 at the level constitutes like a profile changing kind of jump in performance. ... You're maybe kinda changing the track. Munt suggested top 5. Given the system, who are the five guys who should be ahead of him? -PCA, obviously. -Probably Alcantara. Although even there, Made is a little younger, and plays an elite position at a major-league level, whereas I kinda question whether Alcantara will stay in center. Plus with Alcantara being SO tall, that puts his long-levers swing highly vulnerable. -Herz. I still imagine he'll probably end up in relief. But a guy who is SO hard to hit, and has been consistently super hard to hit, I'd clearly put him in that top 5. -Davis, still has tenure as a power-hitting prospect. Still have to keep him in the top-5. But being perpetually injured, probably not likely to actually stay in center for many big-league years, and with such a long-levers swing with so many holes, I admit I have some doubts whether he'll be able to hit over .230 in the majors. -Caissie. Even there, Made is younger, projects as a good SS rather than a DH, and has hit more HR's this season. Heh heh, and if the shift never gets eliminated, Made wouldn't be fighting the big-league shifts, either! :) Caissie is stacking up lots of singles in South-Bend, but I don't imagine they have the analytics and the shifts in the Midwest league like they do in the majors. After that, I'm not really sure who should be higher? Killian? Wicks? Your guy Gallardo, who's a year older? Howard, who's a year older, and has yet to hit? Triantos, who's basically the same age at the same level, but without having big-league-SS defense? Cristian, even though he's only a year younger and may not project quite as well defensively? Maybe Ballesteros, a catcher with mash? Devers, with his combo of control and breaking ball? I don't know, there are so many factors with each guy. But I guess I'm thinking a teenager who projects as a good big-league SS defensively, and who's showing significant HR power, who isn't a K-guy but who has fixed his BB issue, I'm not sure why he wouldn't have as good of a #6-case as any of the other guys after PCA, Alcantara, Herz, Davis, and Caissie? Munt, you have Made top 5. Of my PCA, Alcantara, Herz, Davis, and Caissie 5-some, which of those would you push off your top-5 and place after Made?

Sam Thoreson, the Minnesota guy who had 36K/23IP last season, made his first rehab appearance for Mesa. Pitched the first and started the second, 4 walks before getting lifted.

He's a triples machine! Those are so fun to watch. He now has 7 triples and 7 doubles on the season, crazy. The Made HR binge has also been really fun. Seeing some of the clips, they are some long ones. He appears to be a rather quiet guy. In the couple of HR clips this week, I don't think he's cracked much of a smile either time, and not even much of one getting to the dugout and the other guys. Lots or players with various personalities. Triantos got one, too, he's got 3 now. Alex Hernandez got two hits including his first HR for DSL today. Average is up to .135. Lots of groundouts, but his K's don't actually look problematic. Just lots of grounders, groundouts, and low BABIP.

Caissie had 19 singles in June.

Bertz, a few weeks ago I'd noted that Made hadn't really shown much XBH power. Man, he's gone on a power surge since. Really nice. He's a couple months younger than Alcantara. In the clip, he looks pretty well built now. Not sure he really needs to fill out much further, but the Cubs development people can evaluate that.

3 HR and 4 doubles among his 15 hits. AFter HR in his first AB of the season, Cristian hasn't gotten an XBH since.

2 thoughts: Preciado has super-skinny legs. The non-braced leg, look how slender that is. He's young, so has lots of time to get stronger as you say. But some guys are just born to have slender limbs? There's a chance that he's one of them? Made may look more physically put together now than a year ago, I don't have good recall. But performance-wise, he's not looking that much more physically powerful? His walk-rate has vaulted, more than 5-times higher, so that's great. But his slugging has jumped only a trace, from .366 to .390, not much of a jump. (His average is a little lower than last year.). Last year 17 XBH in 235 AB; this year only 9 XBH in 123 AB. So his XBH rate has barely moved at all, although he's turned a couple of doubles into HR. I'd actually hoped to see a much more noticeable increase in his hitting and power output with an extra year of strength and experience. Still got some season left, so perhaps that might still come. But it doesn't look like his hitting or power has shown any significant jump, only his walking.

Devers with another strong game. 3 singles in 6K/0BB/5IP. Will be interesting to see whether he's got the stuff for the majors. But relatively consistent control never stops being useful.

Canario's K/HR/BB rate numbers look kinda comparable between South Bend and Tennessee. K-rate is just a hair lower, HR and walk rates all a hair lower in AA. But at South Bend, he had a fluky .382 BABIP, which hasn't carried up. I'd love to imagine that he's in the process of figuring something out. I think odds are more likely that it's the natural ebb-and-flow of hitting. Every time a prospect has a little hot streak, I hope the's figured it out and that his will be the new normal. Usually it's more a series of waves, with some highs and lows, and what goes up must come down. I think as guys improve, they get a little more skillful at being able to extend the highs a little bit longer, and to shorten the lows a little bit.

Love the good Ballesteros news! Very fun to see. It would be so helpful if he worked out as a strong-hitting catcher.

There was reference last week that Brailyn might be able to pitch this year. Do we have a sense for what his health issue(s) have been? I know we've had reference to getting Covid, but not many young men miss 4 months or 16 months due to Covid. Obviously he's had other issues as well. Any insights?

Assuming I calculated correctly, I think PCA has a .451 BABIP. I love the way his season has gone, but he's not going to sustain that.

Yeah, Hill is having a good season. Doesn't K a lot, but getting the HR's rolling this season is new and interesting. Not sure how much priority there is for a corner outfielder, and he's mostly played left. But any guys who can hit, it's kinda nice and difficult, and with the DH you can always use a guy who can hit. Keep it up, Hill! Doesn't seem his numbers are anomalously BABIP flukey or anything, either.

Both hits today were pulled. The several clips I've seen of his hits lately have largely seemed to be on slow breaking balls. Has he been smacking any fastballs? If so, all oppo, or can he pull a fastball, too?

I agree with TT's and Tom's points, that having occasional small-sample success is a fun moment in time. A 3-inning glimpse of what Palencia can look like at his best, that's really fun. But time will tell how repeatable that can be. I think often fans and scouts get fired up by what a guy can do at his best. But sometimes a career is less determined by how good the best is than by how bad the bad is, and how frequent. Obviously no pitcher is consistent, and stats are a composite of sharper days and those that are not so sharp. A couple years ago, Burl had a good inning or two and dominated some powerful SEC or ACC team. It was a glimmer of what Burl *might* become *if* he could hypothetically locate consistently. Maples would always have an inning or two when his fastball was around the plate and his slider was devastating; glimmers of what *might* be a valuable pitcher, *IF* he could ever gain consistency. Hopefully guys like Palencia and Jensen will get more consistent in locating their stuff, and Palencia will have a lot more box scores that look like yesterday's.

In Cubs farms past, prospect pitchers never got pulled from the rotation unless due to injury. I kinda like the developmental concept that if something isn't right, that you try to remediate ASAP. Palencia walked 14 guys in his first 16 innings; maybe getting him away from games and trying to ID and remediate why he's missing so badly so often was exactly what he needed? Jensen's awful, 14BB/16IP, and his habitually bad HR-factory is even worse? Try to remediate ASAP, try to fix him. At least try, I'm good with at least trying. Probably Jensen just doesn't have it in him to consistently throw strikes, much less do so with command. And probably Palencia had a fluke walk-free game, but he probably won't be able to locate with consistency over a larger sample size, I get that. But I like trying to develop and remediate right away.

After starting out April really well (20K/3BB in 12 innings), Riley Thompson hasn't pitched since May 5, the day he didn't get any of 7 batters out. Did he have a recurrence of his previous injury? A new and different injury? Or a recall to the pitch lab to work on something?

I'm not sure I see a lot of "boom", myself? A "boom" pitcher needs some combination of both stuff and command. We've got guys who can be major league contributors, but I'm not sure I'm seeing big "boom" guys? Do Killian or Wicks have the stuff to be "boom", versus 3-4-5 guys? Do Herz or Bain or Franklin have the control to "boom"? Similar for hitters. Do I imagine any of our guys with the power-contact-defense profile to perhaps project as being in-consideration-for-top-5-MVP-guys? Maybe Hernandez will be, beats me. Maybe PCA will develop into a 15-20 HR guy and be really good. But many of the others just seem to have enough imperfections that while useful is within reach for some, "boom" seems relatively remote.