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craig

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Everything posted by craig

  1. craig
    Could be a nice night. I'm fascinated by Little, and always rank him higher than most lists do. Wild is wild, but a guy with overpowering stuff that nobody can drive is so interesting. Would love to see him stack some games, and build into a guy who can sometimes slip 5-inning outings under his pitch count. Wicks is supposed to be a top-10 guy with stuff that profiles well. Has been plagued by HR's and presumably fluky-high BABIP. Would love to see him locate his stuff consistently enough to curtail the HR's, and stack some decent-BABIP luck for a stretch of games . I'm still interested in Assad as a useful pitcher. Getting his location squared away at Iowa is good, and he may fill some anti-awful innings for us again, sooner or later. Brody has gotten some favorable scouting reports. Will be interesting to see if he can stack some excellent games for Myrtle. Would be fun if so many guys were doing well that like Horton and Brody would earn promotions in May, Ferris could earn his way up, and maybe Franklin or Little could push a move up to replace Jensen.
  2. craig
    Will be interesting to see if Horton goes tonight. Sometimes when they have rainouts and schedule disruptions in the minors, they just have guys throw on the side or in a gym, to keep them on their throwing schedule, rather than pushing a guy back 3 days and maybe messing with their schedule.
  3. craig
    Love both of those thoughts, Tom. Silverio is young and has the length to project hopefully as a power guy. Only turned 18 this calendar year. His height (6'3" listing) and the fact that the Cubs used him exclusively as a starter in DSL at age 17 suggests that they view him as a serious projection guy. He had good K/BB profile, so wasn't a wildman. That he's in American spring training and looking solid there, I think he might be a guy with a chance. I think your Ferris-to-Myrtle in May makes good sense. Certainly Horton is the most obvious guy to hopefully excel and promote. Brody McCullough will turn 23 soon, and Grant Kipp is already 23. So may be several guys who could get bumped up with solid Myrtle starts. Tom, any early notes on how they plan to use your guy Oquendo? Are they trying to make him a closer type, and have NOT stretched him out to start? If I was boss, I'd totally have Oquendo in rotation at Myrtle. At ~60 innings he was already doing as many innings as some of the starter guys, like Little and Franklin and Palencia. So I'd think he'd be a natural guy to give starter innings this season. But Phil has suggested otherwise, maybe?
  4. craig
    I think this sets up minor leaguers with an awesome financial situation. The financial status of minor-league baseball players, even 3rd-day draftees with little probability of ever making it rich in the majors, is still way better than the vast majority of Americans in their 20's. I have four kids in their 20's, two of them in graduate school and one recently completed. Pre-pharmacist, had to pay four years of college tuition, then four years of expensive pharmacy doctorate program. Seminary, 4 years college, then 3 years in seminary. Ph.D. track in biochemistry, 4 years undergrad + 4-5 years Ph.D. As a teaching assistant or research assistant, Ph.D. candidate in biochemistry gets paid in the $20-28K range as a TA or RA, basically what a minor-league baseball player gets paid. In all cases, those candidates are also responsible for their own room and board, with no housing provided and no meal money granted. Of course, the Ph.D. candidate, Pharm.D candidate, and M.Div candidates got no signing bonus. In the 2022 draft, 15 of the 19 Cub signees got $125K or better. The other four were $100K (20th round), $80K (18th), $50K (17th); the only other guy below $80K was Nick Hull, the $25K senior sign (7th round) who'll turn 24 this summer. Minor-leaguers have it REALLY good compared to Americans their age.
  5. craig
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Association_of_Professional_Baseball Not sure about others, but the American Association is one of the best Indy Leagues in the US. As of 2008, they had $100K salary cap per team. Not sure if that's been raised since. If not, that would be an average of $4K per player per season. They raised their minimum monthly salary within the last few years from $800 to $1200. So yeah, it will be a HUGE salary bump when guys playing for an American Indy League to get signed into a big-league organization.
  6. craig
    https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/road-to-wrigley-analyzing-the-top-30-cubs-prospects/ Lance B's Cubs prospect ranking. There is also a brief clip of video with him talking with Callis.
  7. craig
    Did anybody have access to the Lance/Callis show? Any interesting perspectives to share?
  8. craig
    1. Crow-A 2. Alcantara 3. Horton 4. Wezneski 5. Brown 6. Wicks 7. Brennen Davis 8. Mervis 9. Palencia 10. Canario 11. Ferris 12. Caissie 13. Amaya 14. Killian 15. Hodge 16. Hernandez 17. Estrada 18. Luke Little 19. Ed Howard 20 Moises Ballesteros Luis Devers Kevin Made Franklin Gray Jensen Ramirez Derniche Valdes Aden Sanchez Jefferson Rojas Jordan Nwogu Triantos Hearn Mule Riley Martin Bailey Horn Pinango Verdugo Birdsell
  9. craig
    That said, guys can get better, and for other teams guys do develop (sometimes). Top 20, obviously absolutely not, in a system that has a bunch of interesting possibilities. But the guy has a total of only 796 pro AB. And not even 80 AB in A-ball before he got rushed up to AA. That's where I kinda like the idea of having him back in AA again. By keeping the league the same, it's one constant in the evaluation. If he's hitting .230 again, we know he's not developing in any dramatic way. If he's hitting .280, and his K-rate is down, then we know he's the thing that has changed in some way, not the league level. One of the most common reduce-K adjustments, of course, is to swing earlier in the count. I expect he'll likely do that early on, at the expense of a reduced walk-rate.
  10. craig
    Thanks, Mogrified. Yeah, now it auto-lists the new stuff on top. And looks like the back button is working correctly, too. I love it! Thanks for what you do in managing all that stuff!
  11. craig
    Dumb question, but with the new website, have you guys found a way to: 1. Have it default so that topics with recent entries default to the top? When I go to the "Cubs Minor League Talk" forum, it defaults to 2006-2022 international signings and 2016 Cubs top 50 prospects discussion. So I need to Sort By > Custom > Last Reply > Last 5 Days each time. Is there some preference setting I'm missing or need to correct? 2. Have the back-button work normally? I'm using Google Chrome on a Mac. If I click on the assignments discussion, and then his the back button to go back to the panel of topics, it doesn't quite do that, and I get a "Press the reload button to resubmit the data needed to load the page." response.
  12. craig
    I'm good with Strumpf going back to AA for a bit. If he's ready for Iowa and too good for AA, this gives him a chance to prove that he's too good for it and is ready to promote. As a 3-true-outcomes guy obviously getting hits isn't a priority. But I still kinda feel that if a guy is going to hit enough in the majors to make it work, he probably needs to have an AA average above .234. Let him go back and prove that he's better than that now, and that he's too good for AA.
  13. craig
    Very possible. I'd not even noticed that McKinstry was absent from Smith's roster guesses. I'd kinda guess that even if the Cubs cut him, would anybody else pick him up? Wouldn't he just jump at a chance for an Iowa contract, *IF* they were to offer him one? Personally, *IF* they were to send Morel down, I'd rather keep Mastrobuoni up than McKinstry, because I think MM could give competitive AB's and get some hits.
  14. craig
    Quiroz got sold to the Phillies today. :):)
  15. craig
    https://www.mlb.com/player/chris-clarke-669247?stats=gamelogs-s-pitching-mlb&year=2023 Chris Clarke was Rule-5 selected by Seattle. He's pitched 5.2 innings this camp for Seattle, 6K/2BB/6H. Not sure what their competition is, or how much upside they see in him. That kinda sounds like a guy the Cubs will likely be able to get back, *IF* they want him back.
  16. craig
    Bryan Smith's projection is very good. Will be some tweaks at the margins. 1. Will both Keegan and Hughes be on rehab, and neither make the roster? If so, will Borucki make it ahead of Kay and Duffey? Who knows. 2. Might one of Strumpf or Slaughter get pushed up to Iowa in place of Quiroz and/or Young? Maybe Manny Rodriguez to Iowa in place of somebody? 3. Down in the A-level, harder to guess. Smith has Didier Vargas starting for South Bend; that's a fair guess, and is entirely plausible. But that might also be anybody from the Horton, Birdsell, Noland, Santana crowd, too. 4. Smith starts all three of those college pitchers Horton, Birdsell, Noland at Myrtle, and Marino Santy and Moreno. Who knows with any of those kinds of guys. Ferris is a long shot, but possible. Brody McCollough might be used as starter? Maybe Oquendo? Guessing is fun, but more guess than confidence, at this point.
  17. craig
    In less fun news: TJ for Nazier. https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-nazier-mule-surgery-20230321-uijmfe77rvdmtgdsc6o2ufh42m-story.html
  18. craig
    I'm pleasantly surprised that Brailyn is actually throwing a little bit already. Shoulder surgery usually takes a long time, so with surgery I'd figured he'd not be back till 2024. Hopefully he'll be good enough to pitch a couple of innings in Mesa this summer, and then perhaps be all in next year?
  19. craig
    Pretty awesome Canario report. Much better progress than I had anticipated.
  20. craig
    Palencia looks so effortless. Nothing to it.
  21. craig
    I think it speaks to the depth of the system when guys like Estrada, Little, and Howard are showing up outside a top 30 list (even if we think BA is dumb).
  22. craig
    Tom, for Howard's EV that you've appreciated a lot, where is that EV data taken from? -From the 63 non-K A-ball AB's last season? -He had a really high GO/AO ratio, is the strong EV data inclusive of his hard groundouts? -Or only taken from non-grounders? -Or is the data strictly from his 3 XBH? -Or is that data actually not so much from the small sample of contact from his 23 games, but is more taken from BP in camp, off pitching machines and Rachel Folden etc? I'm not meaning to sound snarky, I'm just trying to understand what the sample is from which you have the EV data. It may well be that giving guys a chance to hit off a pitching machine or Rachel Folden, maybe that's a purer measurement of their inherent power, without the data getting confused by the varying capacity to make solid contact.
  23. craig
    I'd go all in on pitching for Mule. It would be fun if the Cubs picked up the next Ohtani with a 4th round pick, but given that Ohtani and Ruth are about the only good 2-way guys in baseball history, I think the odds aren't great for Mule. It's so hard to be successful in either role; I'd think he's best served to just go all-in on pitching. Whatever is best for pitching in terms of body-development, core optimization, film study etc, do what's best for pitching. If he's doing everything he can pitching-development-wise, and has some spare time to take BP or DH, that's fine. But don't confuse the focus, IMO.
  24. craig
    Love that! Pleasantly surprised this quickly.
  25. craig
    In addition to the "Metrically appealing" factor, and the velocity factor, I think the third factor is command. A lot of Ryan Jensens throw hard but don't command it well. Cubs obviously believe Horton has the potential to be a control artist with his fastball.
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